Parker to Stay in College?

[Snakehead]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

I'm sorry. Next time I compare Parker's situation to someone I will compare them to someone of a much different size and body type, a player with completely different skills, a player that plays a completely different position, a player that wasn't highly regarded coming out of school and who was chosen in the 2nd round because clearly, that's the type of player I need to use in my comparison of Jabari Parker to make my point.

And BTW, just because all "you guys" are on the same page, doesn't mean you aren't all wrong.

Well Jabari should definitely come out if he's a lock for a HOF career and (IMO) top 50 player of all time, right Nick.

[bdm860]

And BTW, just because all "you guys" are on the same page, doesn't mean you aren't all wrong.

I think we'll need to know where you voted compared to others in the "How much money do you make a year?" thread to know if this is true or not.

[D.o.s.]

The bolded isn't true, though. It has been shown to make a difference -- in total earnings, in player development, in the strength of the employment monopoly/cartel relationship that defines the NCAA and the NBA.

Would love to see the in depth studies that show this. Got links?

Didn't I already post a couple of them in this thread? I'm not sure how in-depth you're looking to go (none of these are peer reviewed, and they're all subject to small-sample size, because we don't have a large sample), but here's some light reading for you, each has some illuminating facts nestled in it, but I think you should dig those out yourself.

Of course, this begs the question -- did you ask other students to do your research for you while you were in school?


http://nba.si.com/2014/03/19/doug-mcdermott-nba-draft-college-four-year-one-and-done/


http://www.basketballinsiders.com/the-history-of-the-one-and-done-era/
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10588150/nba-why-nba-develops-players-better-college

http://www.sbnation.com/2013/3/22/4134812/nba-one-and-done-draft-ncaa-tournament-dleague

https://www.amherst.edu/media/view/329619/original/Sugai-EffectEarlyEntrytoNBA.pdf
^That's a college paper, but the data it gathers is worth investigating.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdr.lib.unc.edu%2Findexablecontent%2Fuuid%3A64c14d83-ee01-4e94-ba19-a4465b09b9ac%3Fdl%3Dtrue&ei=aZs9U86ZHOLIsATWtYKYAg&usg=AFQjCNG8RcqljHMTqVrK9d9x-Dhtf3dSeA&bvm=bv.63934634,d.cWc
^ that's a PDF

[Vox_Populi]

Maybe it's just me, but I'm detecting some veiled condescension in some of these posts. Anyway, this thread just makes me feel that most of us would choose the more materialistic financially prudent option, if we were Parker. 

[Moranis]

Kenny Satterfield.  Guard from the University of Cincinnati.  Freshman in 99-00 and Soph in 00-01.  Entered the NBA draft after his Sophomore year and was the 53rd pick in the draft and out of the NBA after two years.  He made 845k total for his NBA career.  There was talk that had he entered the draft out of high school he might have been a first round pick.  Probably would have made a huge difference in his life.

While for busts like him, a few hundred thousand makes a big difference.  I think you're wrong if you think things would be any different.

Leon Smith was ranked higher than him in that recruiting class (though not by all sources),  and was drafted with the last pick of the first round (doubtful a 6'2" high school pg goes higher than a 6'10" big man out of high school).  I think Satterfield is still going in the 2nd round, still making around the same money.

Korleone Young went pro out of high school the year before Satterfield would have, taken in the 2nd round and made under 300k.  Maybe Satterfield did make the right decision afterall.

Leon Smith and Korleone Young had all sorts of off court problems that Satterfield did not. 

[nickagneta]

The bolded isn't true, though. It has been shown to make a difference -- in total earnings, in player development, in the strength of the employment monopoly/cartel relationship that defines the NCAA and the NBA.

Would love to see the in depth studies that show this. Got links?

Didn't I already post a couple of them in this thread? I'm not sure how in-depth you're looking to go (none of these are peer reviewed, and they're all subject to small-sample size, because we don't have a large sample), but here's some light reading for you, each has some illuminating facts nestled in it, but I think you should dig those out yourself.

Of course, this begs the question -- did you ask other students to do your research for you while you were in school?


http://nba.si.com/2014/03/19/doug-mcdermott-nba-draft-college-four-year-one-and-done/


http://www.basketballinsiders.com/the-history-of-the-one-and-done-era/
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10588150/nba-why-nba-develops-players-better-college

http://www.sbnation.com/2013/3/22/4134812/nba-one-and-done-draft-ncaa-tournament-dleague

https://www.amherst.edu/media/view/329619/original/Sugai-EffectEarlyEntrytoNBA.pdf
^That's a college paper, but the data it gathers is worth investigating.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdr.lib.unc.edu%2Findexablecontent%2Fuuid%3A64c14d83-ee01-4e94-ba19-a4465b09b9ac%3Fdl%3Dtrue&ei=aZs9U86ZHOLIsATWtYKYAg&usg=AFQjCNG8RcqljHMTqVrK9d9x-Dhtf3dSeA&bvm=bv.63934634,d.cWc
^ that's a PDF

Thanks DOS. TP. As for who did my research in school, I am and engineer and soon also a mathematician. Not much research in getting those degrees.

[bdm860]

Kenny Satterfield.  Guard from the University of Cincinnati.  Freshman in 99-00 and Soph in 00-01.  Entered the NBA draft after his Sophomore year and was the 53rd pick in the draft and out of the NBA after two years.  He made 845k total for his NBA career.  There was talk that had he entered the draft out of high school he might have been a first round pick.  Probably would have made a huge difference in his life.

While for busts like him, a few hundred thousand makes a big difference.  I think you're wrong if you think things would be any different.

Leon Smith was ranked higher than him in that recruiting class (though not by all sources),  and was drafted with the last pick of the first round (doubtful a 6'2" high school pg goes higher than a 6'10" big man out of high school).  I think Satterfield is still going in the 2nd round, still making around the same money.

Korleone Young went pro out of high school the year before Satterfield would have, taken in the 2nd round and made under 300k.  Maybe Satterfield did make the right decision afterall.

Leon Smith and Korleone Young had all sorts of off court problems that Satterfield did not.

How about Rashard Lewis who went in the 2nd round that same year Young did?  He was supposed to go first round as well.  Or Al Harrington who went #25?  Both ranked higher in their classes than Satterfield was in his.  Or did they have problems too?

Deshawn Stevenson was higher ranked in the class after Satterfield's and was drafted #23 out of high school.

It was a big deal when Telfair came out, because no undersized pg had over come straight out of high school before.  He was much more highly regard than Satterfield, and they weren't even sure if he'd be drafted in the 1st round (why he wasn't in the green room on draft night).

In 1998, before a lot of guys were yet to go straight to the pros from high school, 6'2" Satterfield was not going in the first round.  A lot of these guys were super hyped back then.  They said DeMarr Johnson was going to go pro after his junior year of high school!  That was never going to happen either.  I believe Telfair and Lou Williams (who went #45) were the only players under 6'5" drafted out of high school.

Satterfield was not going in the 1st round in 1998.  I doubt he would have been drafted at all (kinda like Lenny Cooke who was supposed to be a 1st round pick out of high school too).

[nickagneta]

Anyway, great debate guys. I probably think a bit differently than most on this subject t but I tend to think differently than most on a whole bunch of subjects. Maybe its the dad in me that spent the last 20 years convincing his sons of how important a college education and experience is in the growth of a person as a whole. Who knows. But I am going to read those links DOS provided and cut out here.  TPs to all I disagreed with.

[D.o.s.]

TP back -- good debate.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rWy72bflds

[Moranis]

Kenny Satterfield.  Guard from the University of Cincinnati.  Freshman in 99-00 and Soph in 00-01.  Entered the NBA draft after his Sophomore year and was the 53rd pick in the draft and out of the NBA after two years.  He made 845k total for his NBA career.  There was talk that had he entered the draft out of high school he might have been a first round pick.  Probably would have made a huge difference in his life.

While for busts like him, a few hundred thousand makes a big difference.  I think you're wrong if you think things would be any different.

Leon Smith was ranked higher than him in that recruiting class (though not by all sources),  and was drafted with the last pick of the first round (doubtful a 6'2" high school pg goes higher than a 6'10" big man out of high school).  I think Satterfield is still going in the 2nd round, still making around the same money.

Korleone Young went pro out of high school the year before Satterfield would have, taken in the 2nd round and made under 300k.  Maybe Satterfield did make the right decision afterall.

Leon Smith and Korleone Young had all sorts of off court problems that Satterfield did not.

How about Rashard Lewis who went in the 2nd round that same year Young did?  He was supposed to go first round as well.  Or Al Harrington who went #25?  Both ranked higher in their classes than Satterfield was in his.  Or did they have problems too?

Deshawn Stevenson was higher ranked in the class after Satterfield's and was drafted #23 out of high school.

It was a big deal when Telfair came out, because no undersized pg had over come straight out of high school before.  He was much more highly regard than Satterfield, and they weren't even sure if he'd be drafted in the 1st round (why he wasn't in the green room on draft night).

In 1998, before a lot of guys were yet to go straight to the pros from high school, 6'2" Satterfield was not going in the first round.  A lot of these guys were super hyped back then.  They said DeMarr Johnson was going to go pro after his junior year of high school!  That was never going to happen either.  I believe Telfair and Lou Williams (who went #45) were the only players under 6'5" drafted out of high school.

Satterfield was not going in the 1st round in 1998.  I doubt he would have been drafted at all (kinda like Lenny Cooke who was supposed to be a 1st round pick out of high school too).

Satterfield would have been in the 99 draft, not the 98 draft. 

[Fafnir]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

I was referring to bdm/nick familiarly as they're the two I've largely been conversing with on the other side of the issue.

I don't think that's really ambiguous or inappropriate, though I suppose they want to object they're not "my guys" they're free to.

[Fafnir]

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

I hate this line of thought. Too much "butterfly effect" and the implication because we lack perfect knowledge of alternate scenarios you can't talk about expected earnings, player development in NBA/College, and other things we do know.

[fairweatherfan]

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

I hate this line of thought. Too much "butterfly effect" and the implication because we lack perfect knowledge of alternate scenarios you can't talk about expected earnings, player development in NBA/College, and other things we do know.

Listen Faf, when I roll these dice any number of things could happen.  So it's totally unreasonable to say the most likely result is a 7.  We just don't know.

[indeedproceed]

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

I hate this line of thought. Too much "butterfly effect" and the implication because we lack perfect knowledge of alternate scenarios you can't talk about expected earnings, player development in NBA/College, and other things we do know.

Listen Faf, when I roll these dice any number of things could happen.  So it's totally unreasonable to say the most likely result is a 7.  We just don't know.

Each result is it's own personal timeline. So ya'know...be careful.

[Fafnir]

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

I hate this line of thought. Too much "butterfly effect" and the implication because we lack perfect knowledge of alternate scenarios you can't talk about expected earnings, player development in NBA/College, and other things we do know.

Listen Faf, when I roll these dice any number of things could happen.  So it's totally unreasonable to say the most likely result is a 7.  We just don't know.