8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.

[Boris Badenov]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

CB

The most likely team to slip into the top 3 is the 4 seed...in which case we are still at 5. I think that might explain what you're asking about.

[cometboy]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

CB

The most likely team to slip into the top 3 is the 4 seed...in which case we are still at 5. I think that might explain what you're asking about.

True. Can you point me to the odds for each non top 3 team to move into the top 3? Thanks for the help.

CB

[Donoghus]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

CB

The most likely team to slip into the top 3 is the 4 seed...in which case we are still at 5. I think that might explain what you're asking about.

True. Can you point me to the odds for each non top 3 team to move into the top 3? Thanks for the help.

CB

http://www.tankathon.com/

[LooseCannon]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

The probability that the lottery leads to rearrangement in the order of the teams with the four worst records is greater than the probability of two teams leap-frogging the fifth-worst team, but not greater than the probability of exactly one team moving ahead of the fifth-worst team.

[cometboy]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

The probability that the lottery leads to rearrangement in the order of the teams with the four worst records is greater than the probability of two teams leap-frogging the fifth-worst team, but not greater than the probability of exactly one team moving ahead of the fifth-worst team.

actually, I get that - Thanks!

[cometboy]

Looking at the last 8 games, we are quietly on track for a 26 win season and the 5th worse record. This leaves us with a 29.2% chance of getting a top 3 pick and an 8.8% chance of the number 1 pick.
It also leaves us with a 55% chance of a top 5 pick.

Don't forget to mention that the 5th team's odds of getting the 6th pick are at 36%, the highest odds of any pick, followed by the odds of picking 5th (26%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Lottery#Process

I totally understand the 36% odds, but the 26% odds of picking 5th actually shock me. There is virtually a guarantee that someone will break into the top 3 and slip one of the worst 3 teams, which would in turn slip the 5th to the 6th. It seems to me the odds of staying at 4th or 5th are low percentage, not a fairly reasonable 26%.

Am I missing something?

CB

The most likely team to slip into the top 3 is the 4 seed...in which case we are still at 5. I think that might explain what you're asking about.

True. Can you point me to the odds for each non top 3 team to move into the top 3? Thanks for the help.

CB

http://www.tankathon.com/

Thank you, Donoghus

[Spicoli]

I don't have stats to back it up but Jeff Green seems to play better at home so i'm glad that five of these next eight are on the road. The C's are horrible on the road. I have them winning 3 of these games. Detroit lost to Philly while Philly was on a 26 game losing streak. Detroit is just that bad. Here's how i have it:

@Wizards (Loss)
Sixers (Win)
@Pistons (Win)
@Hawks (Loss)
Bobcats (Loss)
@Cavs (Loss)
@Sixers (Win)
Wizards (Loss)

[bballdog384]

Just think about it like we're the team with the 2nd best chance of jumping up into the top 3

[LooseCannon]

I don't have stats to back it up but Jeff Green seems to play better at home so i'm glad that five of these next eight are on the road.

Looking at the stats:

Home: 15.5ppg, 4.3rpg, 1.6apg, 39.6 FG%, 30.9 3P%
Road: 17.9ppg, 5.1rpg, 1.7apg, 42.4 FG%, 39.6 3P%

[hwangjini_1]

By the way, out of curiosity, when does the lottery take place?

[chambers]

I don't have stats to back it up but Jeff Green seems to play better at home so i'm glad that five of these next eight are on the road. The C's are horrible on the road. I have them winning 3 of these games. Detroit lost to Philly while Philly was on a 26 game losing streak. Detroit is just that bad. Here's how i have it:

@Wizards (Loss)
Sixers (Win)
@Pistons (Win)
@Hawks (Loss)
Bobcats (Loss)
@Cavs (Loss)
@Sixers (Win)
Wizards (Loss)

Well its the 2nd of a back to back without Rondo so I think they're still faves...
but i saw this today so it could be 50/50
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/232718/Pistons-To-Give-More-Time-To-Young-Players

[pokeKingCurtis]

"You mean 5th BEST" - Celticsblog Forum

[chambers]

Tonight went perfectly for us. The Kings beat the Lakers and we lost to the wizards.
Choo chhhoooo

[MattyIce]

Tonight went perfectly for us. The Kings beat the Lakers and we lost to the wizards.
Choo chhhoooo

......assuming the lakers can pull of at least one or two wins (otherwise it may have been better for the lakers to win tonight)

[chambers]

Tonight went perfectly for us. The Kings beat the Lakers and we lost to the wizards.
Choo chhhoooo

......assuming the lakers can pull of at least one or two wins (otherwise it may have been better for the lakers to win tonight)

I think the Kings have a tougher schedule than the Lakers and I think they possibly lose all of their games from here.
The Lakers is schedule is tough but not as tough. Good news is the Kings are now 3 wins ahead of us and the Lakers are 2 ahead. The Kings easiest game is the Wolves and then the Suns who they probably won't beat.
The Lakers play the Jazz and the Grizzlies as their two easiest games so they should win at least one (fingers crossed).

Avery Bradley hopefully misses a few more games and with Rondo sitting on back to backs our guard rotations will be just pure garbage.