8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.

[LilRip]

TP Boris. Great post as usual.

As nick pointed out though, the only real counter argument is "it's the principle that counts".  That's irrefutable, similar as to how someone's feelings can't be wrong.

Now, I've been a pro-tanker since the trade of KG and PP, but that doesn't mean I've found all the losing to be fun. Actually - and I don't know how many others feel this way - it's been downright horrible. This year is the most emotionally detached I've ever been with regards to the players.

I eagerly await the offseason, not just because the lottery could give us some new and exciting talent to get behind, but because it will reveal the next steps in DA's rebuilding blueprint. This year was simply his first step.

I read a lot of posts about how doing this doesn't guarantee a championship, or how doing that doesn't guarantee landing a franchise player, and stuff like that. I think people can tend to underestimate just how painstakingly difficult it is to build a contender, and how even more difficult it is to win it all. I've said on numerous occasions that there are no guarantees in this league (or even in life, in general). The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out. No franchise has succeeded without luck.

[freshinthehouse]

I think this year will end up being the most unpleasant year of the rebuilding process.  That's not to see we won't be awful next year (I'm betting we will be), but at least next year we should have at least two shiny new rookies, and it will be fun watching them progress, and by the end of the season we should hopefully have some vibe of how the future is going to play out.

[HomerSapien]

I think this year will end up being the most unpleasant year of the rebuilding process.  That's not to see we won't be awful next year (I'm betting we will be), but at least next year we should have at least two shiny new rookies, and it will be fun watching them progress, and by the end of the season we should hopefully have some vibe of how the future is going to play out.

I hope that is true. But we will also be expecting those shiny new rookies to be showing signs of a linear leap to stardom next season, and I can see a lot of fans getting very frustrated at those rookies if they don't progress as fast as we want. Hopefully we can temper our expectations of them a bit so that they can adjust to the NBA and not be labeled "bust" by Feb'15.

[Neurotic Guy]

The Celtics have been much more a pragmatic than a principled franchise, and I have no Celtic-Pride guilt about rooting for them to lose.  Red was as sneaky as they come, finding any edge possible, including making visitor locker rooms oppressively uncomfortable for visiting playoff teams.  Red (as GMs do) lied through his teeth frequently -- playing mind games to get an edge.  Danny does it too.  It's not what I'd call principled.  I'd call it doing everything you can to get ahead -- within, or even slightly outside, the rules. 

Playing worse players over these last games is a great idea.  Players should play their hearts out when on the court, but I think Brad should give minutes to worse players and sit better players.     And I hope somehow they lose tonight to Philly.

[dtrader]

I absolutely hope we lose all of our remaining games.  That doesn't mean I won't watch the games and still cheer every time one of our players makes a great play (especially the young guys). 

For me, this season is what it is.  We aren't making the playoffs.  We're rebuilding, hoping to get better for next year.  I personally see a big difference between the players who will likely go top 4, and everyone else.  Granted, it may not look that way in hindsight, but that's how I feel going in.  I see dante exum and joell embiid being future superstars.  I see marcus smart, gordon, vonleah, and (to a lesser degree) julius randle as question marks.  Getting a superstar in this league (and this city) is tough.  This draft may be our best shot for awhile.

I understand the principle of "play to win, or don't play at all", but I think that's a little bit too black and white (and maybe shortsighted).  Wouldn't that same principle mean that it is wrong to sit players at the end of blowout loses?  Isn't taking out your best players and looking to put them in the best position they can be for the next game very similar?  In both cases you're intentionally fielding a worse team to potentially improve your chances of future success.  But in the playoffs when the outcome of an individual game seems decided, we often encourage our coaches to do exactly that.  Where do you draw the line?  For me it is always about the greater good.  Sacrificing one game to win a more important one later is the right decision.  Sacrificing a few games to land a superstar that can rejuvenate the franchise for years to come is the right call.

[Boris Badenov]

The Spurs often sit their best players at the end of the year, to leave them well-rested for the playoffs. In other words, they intentionally reduce their current chances of winning to increase their future chances of a deep playoff run. And there's dtrader's example above of sitting guys in blowouts.

Does that violate the principle of "always play to win"? Is it really so different from sitting your best players over the last 5-6 games to increase your chances of making a deep playoff run two years from now?

More generally, teams make decisions all the time that trade current losses for future wins - not signing FAs to preserve cap space, not making certain trades, drafting 18 year olds instead of 4 year college guys, etc. And of course, teams are often criticized for the opposite - mortgaging the team's future to increase current wins.

To me all of these decisions are part and parcel with trading away good players (Pierce/KG) and even sitting a team's best players (or playing the deep bench guys) over the last 7 games of a season to increase lottery odds. Logically it's exactly the same kind of tradeoff: wins now vs. wins later.

I guess all of this emotion attached to the current discussion confuses me - as well as the idea that there's some "principle" that tanking violates but these other things don't. Nor do I buy the "losing culture" argument. We turned it around in 2008 with core players (Rondo, Perk etc.) who'd participated in "tanking" just one year previous.
 

[D.o.s.]

But that discounts the fact that people often use sports, and rooting for sports teams, as a way to avoid stressing about the mundane realities of everyday life.

It's April, I have to do my taxes. It's early in the month, so I've just paid rent, loans, etc.

I don't want to watch the Celtics and have their play be so miserable that I start doing salary cap math on exactly how much space we'll have in 2015 -- I want to watch the Celtics play and watch a squad that looks like a worthwhile return on the time and emotional effort I've invested in rooting for "my team."

[Boris Badenov]

But that discounts the fact that people often use sports, and rooting for sports teams, as a way to avoid stressing about the mundane realities of everyday life.

It's April, I have to do my taxes. It's early in the month, so I've just paid rent, loans, etc.

I don't want to watch the Celtics and have their play be so miserable that I start doing salary cap math on exactly how much space we'll have in 2015 -- I want to watch the Celtics play and watch a squad that looks like a worthwhile return on the time and emotional effort I've invested in rooting for "my team."

I'm with you there. I'm not going to watch any of these remaining games, and that's a bummer. I've enjoyed this Celtics season less than any since...I don't even know, maybe the Pitino era.

I guess I can console myself by hoping we get better faster doing it this way. And it won't be as long as waiting until 2015, with a little bit of luck. If we get a top 3 pick, and maybe even if we get a top 5 pick, we could be much more exciting and "rootable" by the start of next season - whether it's with someone like Wiggins, or with another star or two we acquire by trading our pick.

I waited 20 years between rings the last time. I can wait a few this time around too.

[Casperian]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

[Fafnir]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

Yes the position with the most number combinations in the lottery.

[Rondo9]

Unfortunately the Bucks and the Sixers are in a head to head race for that position with the most number combinations.

[D.o.s.]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

...That's cool with me, it's not my favorite but I'll do it for you.

[Casperian]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

Yes the position with the most number combinations in the lottery.

Source?

The truth is, you do not "know", you "believe".

[Fafnir]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

Yes the position with the most number combinations in the lottery.

Source?

The truth is, you do not "know", you "believe".

Probability theory and an understanding of mathematics. Plus the belief that having the first choice in the draft is preferable to others. I don't see why having the player you most want is a ever a bad thing.

When the outcome is unknown the best any human can do is achieve the best odds. I'd rather have "AA" than "KK" or "9s8s" in a hand of hold 'em.

No on knows what the winning combination is yet, that combination has not been created yet it is in the future. Thus the best position is the one which will result in the most favorable outcome in the draft lottery.

If you're going to get metaphysical and talk up how falling to the 5th for the C's led to Allen which led to KG which led to a title was the best position the day after the C's draft lottery then you're just talking hindsight and mysticism.

The idea that because the future is unknown thus we can't evaluate what's a good situation int the present is an argument against any sort of critical thought.

[Casperian]

Probability theory and an understanding of mathematics.

When the outcome is unknown the best any human can do is achieve the best odds. I'd rather have "AA" than "KK" or "9s8s" in a hand of hold 'em.

No on knows what the winning combination is yet, that combination has not been created yet it is in the future. Thus the best position is the one which will result in the most favorable outcome in the draft lottery.

If you're going to get metaphysical and talk up how falling to the 5th for the C's led to Allen which led to KG which led to a title was the best position the day after the C's draft lottery then you're just talking hindsight and mysticism.

The idea that because the future is unknown thus we can't evaluate what's a good situation int the present is an argument against any sort of critical thought.

Thanks for the arrogance, but I know a thing or two about math, as well.

No metaphysics, I´m talking facts. Unlike you. You also didn´t answer my question. Which source do you have that turns your beliefs into knowledge? Where´s the equation?

As I said, you do not know, you believe. You believe in probability. Of course, that´s your prerogative. You can believe in probability, Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, for all I care. I like facts. Who said that if people do not believe in God, they´d believe in anything?

Here are some "facts":
We´re talking about a (hopefully) one-off event of the Celtics being in the lottery, a random event which can have any kind of outcome, even the worst position winning it all. That´s why your poker reference has no bearing on the topic at hand, as a professional poker player plays millions of hands in his career. Additionally, the chance (see: probability) for the worst record to win it all is 3x smaller than the chance for it to not win.
Since I don´t know who´s going to win it, and you don´t know who´s going to win it (even though you claim otherwise), how about we both accept that any attempt to "game" the system is futile? If we could accept this "fact" as common ground, we could finally move on from this useless exercise and focus on the stuff which actually (you know, in reality) has a tangible influence on our future records.

Unless you want to admit right now that, in fact, you do not know what the best position is, why don´t you put your money where your mouth is, and make a little bet with me? Let´s say 200 Bucks for a good cause of the winner´s choice?

*edit*