How Are Top Teams Built? (Survey - Part 1)

[PhoSita]

We all want the Celtics to get good again ASAP.  The question on everybody's minds, tongues, and fingers this season is: What's the best, quickest way to build back up to the top?

I don't have a definitive answer to that question, but I thought it'd be worth taking an in-depth look at the top 10 teams in the league this season, see who their most valuable players are, and how those players were acquired. 

To win a lot of games and have a chance in the playoffs, you need to have a star core.  I think most would agree that the Celtics don't have that star core to build around at the moment.  So the primary issue of rebuilding is how to get that core in place. 

So, how have the best teams in the league managed it?

For part 1, I will look at the top 10 teams in the league by record for this season.  In the future, I'll take a look at the top teams from 10 years ago and 20 years ago.


Here are the top 10 teams this season:

1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Miami Heat
6. Houston Rockets
7. Portland Trailblazers
8. Golden State Warriors
9. Dallas Mavericks
10. Memphis Grizzlies



1. San Antonio (62 win pace)

Top players:
Tim Duncan (8 WS pace) 15.1 pts, 9.9 reb, 1.9 blks, 48% fg, 29.3 mpg
Kawhi Leonard (7.1 WS pace) 12.0 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.7 stl, 52% fg, 36.7% 3p, 28.8 mpg
Tony Parker (6.97 WS pace) 17.5 pts, 6.2 ast, 50.2% fg, 38.7% 3p, 30.3 mpg

How they got 'em:

Tim Duncan was taken with the #1 pick in the 1997 draft; the Spurs had a famously awful season to get him, with a 20-62 record mostly due to David Robinson missing most of the year. 

Parker was selected at the end of the first round (#28) in the 2001 draft.

Leonard was drafted 15th in the 2011 draft by the Spurs after San Antonio traded their then-starting shooting guard George Hill to the Pacers for the pick.  Hill had been a key contributor for the Spurs after being selected 26th in the 2008 draft.


2. Indiana (61 win pace)

Top Players:
Paul George (12.27 WS pace) 22 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.8 stl, 43.9% fg, 36.8% 3p, 35.9 mpg
David West (8.8 WS pace) 14.2 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.8 ast, 49.7% fg, 30.4 mpg
Roy Hibbert (6.94 WS pace) 11.2 pts, 7.2 reb, 2.4 blks, 46.1% fg, 30.3 mpg

How they got 'em

The Pacers selected George with the 10th pick in the 2010 draft; George played for Fresno State in college, a school in the Mountain West Conference.  The Pacers had a record of 32-50 to earn the 10th pick in the draft.

West, a two-time All-Star (08 and 09) with New Orleans, signed with the Pacers as a free agent in 2012, after the lockout ended, for $10 million a year.

Hibbert was selected 17th by the Pacers in the 2008 draft.


3. OKC (60 win pace)

Top Players:
Kevin Durant (19.9 WS pace) 31.8 pts, 7.6 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.4 stl, 50.7% fg, 40% 3p, 38.3 mpg
Serge Ibaka (9.8 WS pace) 15.2 pts, 8.9 reb, 2.6 blk, 54.3% fg, 32.7 mpg
Russell Westbrook (4.9 WS pace) 21.5 pts, 7.1 ast, 5.7 reb, 2.0 stl, 43.5% fg, 34.6% 3p, 31.1 mpg (on pace to play 44 games)

How they got 'em:

OKC selected Durant #2 in the 2007 draft after finishing the season with the 5th worst record (31-51).

The Thunder selected Russell Westbrook 4th in the 2008 draft after finishing 20-62 on the season -- the 2nd worst record.

In the same draft, the Thunder used a 1st rounder from Phoenix (acquired in exchange for taking on Kurt Thomas's contract) to select Serge Ibaka with the 24th pick.


4. LA Clippers (58 win pace)

Top Players:
Blake Griffin (12.8 WS pace) 24.3 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.1 stl, 53.5% fg, 36.0 mpg
Deandre Jordan (11.8 WS pace) 10.3 pts, 13.8 reb, 2.4 blk, 66.7% fg, 35.6 mpg
Chris Paul (11.4 WS pace) 18.5 pts, 11.0 ast, 2.4 stl, 4.4 reb, 46% fg, 33% 3p, 34.7 mpg (on pace to play 58 games)

How they got 'em:

Blake Griffin was the #1 pick in the 2009 draft, which the Clippers earned by finishing with a 19-63 record, tied with Washington for 2nd worst.

The Clippers selected Deandre Jordan with the 35th pick of the 2008 draft.

The Clippers acquired Chris Paul by trading for him.  Paul was a year away from free agency and had made clear to the Hornets that he planned to leave.  The Clippers made the most attractive trade offer for Paul -- the expiring contract of Chris Kaman, a 1st round pick from Minnesota (expected to become a lottery pick), Eric Gordon, and Al-Farouq Aminu.  Gordon was regarded as a promising young scorer, albeit with injury issues; he was the 7th overall pick in the 2008 draft (Clips had a 23-59 record).  Al-Farouq Aminu was a fairly recent lottery pick, having been taken by the Clippers with the 8th pick of the well-regarded 2010 draft (Clips had a 29-53 record).


5. Miami (58 win pace)

Top Players:
LeBron James (16.3 WS pace) 26.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 6.5 ast, 1.6 stl, 56.9% fg, 37.1% 3p, 37.6 mpg
Chris Bosh (9.4 WS pace) 16.9 pts, 6.8 reb, 53.4% fg, 31.8 mpg
Dwyane Wade (7.0 WS pace) 19.4 pts, 4.9 ast, 4.7 reb, 1.5 stl, 55% fg, 33.3% 3p, 33.6 mpg

How they got 'em:

LeBron joined the Heat as a free agent in 2010 (via the infamous Decision).  Bosh joined the Heat soon after.  Both players were reportedly drawn to consider the Heat through their friendship with Dwyane Wade, and were then sold on the team by Heat president Pat Riley.  The Heat had long been jealously hording cap space for that summer in anticipation of trying to sign James and another major free agent to put alongside Wade.

Dwyane Wade was drafted by the Heat with the 5th pick of the famously stacked 2003 draft.  The Heat had the 4th best lottery odds that year with a 25-57 record.

[PhoSita]

6. Houston Rockets

Top Players:
James Harden (11.55 WS pace) 24.7 pts, 5.6 ast, 4.7 reb, 1.5 stl, 45.5% fg, 35.2% 3p, 38.4 mpg
Dwight Howard (9.7 WS pace) 18.6 pts, 12.4 reb, 1.8 blk, 58.9% fg, 34.1 mpg
Chandler Parsons (7.6 WS pace) 16.2 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.1 stl, 47.5% fg, 37.6% 3p, 37.7 mpg

How they got 'em:

When Harden's talks with the Thunder about a contract extension fell apart, the Rockets swooped in with a trade offer, giving up Jeremy Lamb (#12 pick in 2012), Kevin Martin (decent scoring SG on expiring deal), a second round pick, some filler contracts, and two first round picks -- including a 2013 pick from Toronto, which projected to fall somewhere in the lottery (Raptors had selected 8th in 2012).

The following summer, when Dwight Howard hit free agency after a rocky first season with the Lakers, the Rockets were able to persuade him to come to Houston -- touting its cast of young stars headlined by elite scorer Harden.

Parsons was selected by the Rockets with the 38th pick of the 2011 draft.


7. Portland Trailblazers

Top Players:
LaMarcus Aldridge (8.1 WS pace) 23.4 pts, 11.1 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.0 blk, 45.9% fg, 36.5 mpg
Damian Lillard (10.0 WS pace) 21.2 pts, 5.6 ast, 3.1 reb, 43.1% fg, 39.8% 3p, 35.9 mpg
Nicolas Batum (7.7 WS pace) 13.2 pts, 7.3 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.0 stl, 45.6% fg, 35.6% 3p, 36.2 mpg

How they got 'em:

The Blazers had the worst record in the league in '05-'06 (21-61 W/L), but ended up with the 4th pick in the draft.  They traded up on draft day, however, moving their pick (Tyrus Thomas) and the rights to some Euro guy (Victor Khryapa), and selected Aldridge with the 2nd overall pick.

Damian Lillard was selected with the 6th pick of the 2012 draft; the Blazers got that pick in a trade earlier that year from the Nets by sending Gerald Wallace to New Jersey.  Lillard was the highest pick ever from Weber State, a school that doesn't tend to play many ranked opponents.

Portland selected Batum 25th in the 2008 draft after moving up in a three team trade with Houston and Memphis by trading their 1st and 2nd round picks (27 and 33).


8. Golden State Warriors

Top Players:
Stephen Curry (12.7 WS pace) 23.4 pts, 8.6 ast, 4.4 reb, 1.6 stl, 46.0% fg, 41.2% fg, 36.5 mpg
David Lee (8.8 WS pace) 18.5 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.2 ast, 51.9% fg, 33.4 mpg
Andrew Bogut (7.2 WS pace) 7.8 pts, 10.1 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.9 blk, 63.6% fg, 26.8 mpg

How they got 'em:

Curry was the 7th pick in the 2009 draft, a pick the Warriors earned by finishing 29-53 on the season.  Curry may have fallen somewhat in the draft due to the level of competition he faced at Davidson.

Golden State completed a sign and trade for Lee in the 2010 off-season, paying him $80 million over 6 years, after striking out on the bigger name free agents of that summer.

The Warriors traded for Bogut.  Before the 2012 trade deadline, they sent long-time Warrior scorer Monta Ellis and 2010 6th overall pick Ekpe Udoh (Warriors had the 4th worst record in 2010: 26-56) to Milwaukee in return for Bogut and veteran (former Warrior) Stephen Jackson.  Bogut was the 1st overall pick in 2006 but his career had been derailed by numerous injuries that kept him off the floor, despite stretches of high level play as a defensive anchor and occasional post scorer.


9. Dallas Mavericks

Top Players:
Dirk Nowitzki (10.7 WS pace) 21.4 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.7 ast, .9 stl, 49.5% fg, 40.2% 3p, 32.2 mpg
Jose Calderson (6.3 WS pace) 11.7 pts, 4.8 ast, 2.4 reb, 1.0 stl, 45.2% fg, 44.8% 3p, 31.1 mpg
Monta Ellis (5.0 WS pace) 18.7 pts, 5.8 ast, 3.5 reb, 1.8 st, 45.3% fg, 31.2% 3p, 36.5 mpg

How they got 'em:

Dirk Nowitzki was the 9th overall pick of the 1998 draft.  The Mavericks had the 6th overall pick after finishing 20-62, good for the 6th worst record in the league, but they traded the pick (Robert "Tractor" Traylor) to Milwaukee in return for the 9th pick and other considerations (which became Steve Nash from Phoenix).

Both Calderon and Ellis signed as free agents with Dallis in the 2013 off-season.  Calderon's deal was for 4 years / $28 million, while Ellis was signed for 3 years and more than $25 million.


10. Memphis Grizzlies

Top Players:
Mike Conley Jr. (7.6 WS pace) 17.1 pts, 6.0 ast, 1.5 stl, 43.9% fg, 37.1 3p, 33.4 mpg
Zach Randolph (5.7 WS pace) 17.0 pts, 10.1 reb, 2.5 ast, 45.8% fg, 34.1 mpg
Marc Gasol (4.7 WS pace) 13.7 pts, 6.7 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.4 blk, 1.0 stl, 46.4% fg, 32.9 mpg (on pace to play 41 games)

How they got 'em:

Conley was the 4th pick in the 2007 draft.  The Grizzlies had the worst record in the league (22-60), but missed out entirely on the top 3.

The Grizzlies got Zach Randolph from the Clippers in a salary dump for Quentin Richardson back in the 2009 off-season.

Marc Gasol was a throw-in from the Lakers in the Pau Gasol trade back in 2008.  He had been selected with the 48th overall pick in the 2007 draft by the Lakers.

[D.o.s.]

I forgot Mike Conley was drafted so highly.

[PhoSita]

I forgot Mike Conley was drafted so highly.

I know, right?  What the Grizzlies have done is remarkable considering he's the only major piece they have who was drafted high.  In some respects I feel like they got kind of lucky -- they hit on a reclamation project with Z-Bo, and they got Marc Gasol as a throw in with the Pau Gasol trade.  The counter to that, perhaps, is that since they'd had Pau for so long, maybe they knew better than anybody that Marc could have a lot of value.

Anyways, I like Conley.  It took him a while to reach the level he's at now, and he never quite lived up to the promise of being a true star, but he's in the upper echelon of point guards.  He's also very well-rounded; you could put him into virtually any starting lineup and he'd be a major asset.

[D.o.s.]

Agreed with that, although it would be very difficult to get anyone from either front office on the record with the idea that Marc Gasol was a throw in to that trade. 

[Quetzalcoatl]

So the top teams were built mainly by drafting in the top ten and ripping people off in trades

[PhoSita]

So the top teams were built mainly by drafting in the top ten and ripping people off in trades

Basically.

Smart free agency acquisitions, making the most of mid-to-late 1st round picks, and hitting big on scorers who fell out of the top 5 because they played at less competitive college programs are some other trends I noticed.

There's one trade that stands out on this list as being really, really good for both teams -- the Leonard for Hill swap.  Both players have become major contributors for their respective teams.

[bballdog384]

I like the multiple instances of the worst team missing out on the top 3 

[Moranis]

Indiana and Dallas are the only teams without a top 5 pick that they drafted (or legitimately traded for) among their top 3 players.  They do both have a top ten pick that they drafted though.

[hwangjini_1]

So the top teams were built mainly by drafting in the top ten and ripping people off in trades

Basically.

Smart free agency acquisitions, making the most of mid-to-late 1st round picks, and hitting big on scorers who fell out of the top 5 because they played at less competitive college programs are some other trends I noticed.

There's one trade that stands out on this list as being really, really good for both teams -- the Leonard for Hill swap.  Both players have become major contributors for their respective teams.

great, great thread pho. lots of work involved by you to put this all together. and throw in your outstanding analysis and it is fun to read.  tp for sure.

next, your points above are especially salient, at least to me. based upon your data, the common threads show that no SINGLE way to success exists, but COMMON characteristics show it is really helpful to have a combination of:

#1- an excellent draft position
#2- scouting/picking talent in the mid-range/end of the draft
#3- astute free agent signing/trades

as i look at what danny is doing for the celtics, it too falls within the key points you set out. indeed, danny excells at #2 and has sully, rondo, and olly to show for it right now. and the celtics will pick this year at around #17, which will produce more good talent.

ha, danny needs to hire pho to help with the rebuild. 

but what of #1? never a sure thing and luck is a factor (darko, oden, et al). yet in THIS year's draft the celtics have a good chance of picking in the top 4, all of whom look to be very, very good. failing that, even someone in the 5 to 8 range has the potential to be an outstanding nba player. so danny has a good shot at getting a future star this way.

finally, what of #3? free agents? danny's record is not as good as we would like, for a range of reasons, only some of which he controls. the key will be cap space, which the celtics may have in 2 years, when wallace's toxic contract finally disappears.

in terms of trades for stars, as with any GM, he is not perfect at all. yet, he did swing trades for KG and Ray Allen. so he it is very possible for him to pull off a trade for a big name, and, he has the assets to do so in the near future.

bottom line? looking 5 years ahead, the celtics are well positioned to contend based upon what we see from pho's fabulous posts.

can ainge speed the whole process up and have a contending team in 2-3 years? that is a big, big order, but with the correct free agent, draft, and current talent it might happen.

[clover]

So it looks like every one of those top-10 teams got at least one of their top players either as a top-10 pick or through trading a top-10 pick.

The C's haven't had a top-10 pick since 2007. There's nobody on the team now they drafted in the top 10 or traded for a top 10.

[D.o.s.]

So it looks like every one of those top-10 teams got at least one of their top players either as a top-10 pick or through trading a top-10 pick.

The C's haven't had a top-10 pick since 2007. There's nobody on the team now they drafted in the top 10 or traded for a top 10.

That's true. The last time we had a top 10 pick we won a ring the next season.

We're on schedule for a top 10 pick this year. Clearly we're winning it all in 2015.

Science.

[djbilly33]

If the Celtics can land a top 5 pick, and that's a huge if then are building core would be Rondo, top 5 pick, Sully, Green and maybe even Hump.  Then I think Danny will be looking for a top free agent who is young enough to build around.  Next year we will have a healthy Rondo and a young core that could be dangerous if they can build the chemistry and maturity in time for the playoffs. Also it would be nice to resign Paul to finish his career out as a 6th man or starter with limited minutes.

2014-2015

Rondo
Top 5 pick/Paul
Green/
Sully/ Hump
Free Agent/ Trade

[Yoki_IsTheName]

You'd also need a very good coach.

All these top teams share one common thing, a great or a very good coach.

Smart trades, smart FA signings are indeed a big thing in building a contender, but you'd still need someone to manage the personnel well. 

[PhoSita]

You'd also need a very good coach.

All these top teams share one common thing, a great or a very good coach.

Smart trades, smart FA signings are indeed a big thing in building a contender, but you'd still need someone to manage the personnel well.

It's hard to gauge the importance of a coach.  It's easy to think of examples of coaches who hindered the development of their teams.  But how much of the perception that a coach is "good" or "great" is generated by outcomes?

Is Scott Brooks a "great" coach, or is he just a pretty solid coach who has Durant on his team?  Same with Spoelstra. 

Doc Rivers is a pretty good coach, in a situation that fits his personality and style.  Looking at the Clippers, it's obvious he's an upgrade over Vinny Del Negro.  But that Clippers team would be really good with any coach decent enough not to get in the way.