"Based on that, this weekend (in the Big 12 Championship) is out," Self said in a statement. "Next weekend, we feel like is a longshot, but the doctors are hopeful that if Joel works hard in rehab and progresses that it is possible that he could play in the later rounds of the NCAA Tournament if our team is fortunate enough to advance."
Yikes. Sounds like we may not see him until at least mid-tournament.
He's done for the year. The NCAA takes injuries into account when seeding -- if you're missing a key player for the tourney who you've had all year, you get a worse seed. Self is mostly trying to keep Kansas from getting punished in the seeding by saying he "might" return. If they thought it was possible, they'd use stronger, but still non-committal language, like "we expect him to return." Stress fracture in the back? His goal is to rehab so he can participate in the draft combine at this point.
How does that work? If a guy gets injured they move you down in the bracket? That seems quite stupid. Also, I always just assumed there was objectivity in tourney seeding, but I guess I was wrong.
They factor in how your team is now. So if you had a rough start to the year, but now your team is playing well, you'll likely get in/get a better seed than a team with a similar record who's struggling. If a key contributor to your success is going to be out, they ding your seed, because they want to rate the teams for the tournament. Now, if Kansas goes off and wins the big 12 tournament without Embiid, they're a lock for a 1, because they'll be seen to have adapted to his absence. But if they play like they did against West Virginia, they could very well slide to a 3.
It seems arbitrary, but there's an element of fairness to it. If Team A plays .500 ball for a most of the season, beacaue they're missing a key contributor, but then gets him back for the last 10 games and goes 9-1 for. record of 19-11, are they a worse team or better team than one who started 18-2, but then went 2-8 down the stretch when their star went down, for a final record of 20-10? Assuming their schedules are the same, there's no easy answer, but if team B's star is going to miss the tourney, they'll give the nod to team A, because team A is the better team right now.
For the most part this affects seeding, and not who gets in, but it can happen that a bubble team loses it's star and doesn't make it. But again, they were on the bubble with the star, so it's not completely irrational. And they don't drop teams from 1 seeds to 5 seeds just because of an injury, but they will take injuries into account, which can help a team getting healthy, or hurt a team dealing with injuries. Part of it also depends how clear-cut the seeds are. Kansas is one of about 5-6 teams trying to make a case for the last #1 seed (Florida, Arizona, and Wichita are locks). Dropping to a three seed might happen if they lose their first tourney game even if Embiid were healthy. This just makes it more likely.
