Brighter Future... Boston or Orlando?

[LarBrd33]

I'm bored.  Brooklyn finally reached .500 today.  All this talk about us having our own pick + Brooklyn's pick + a handful of extra picks over the next 5 years... I was checking out some mock drafts when I realized that Orlando's situation is arguably better than ours.   Who do think has a brighter future?

#1 - 2014 Picks

Boston:  If the season ended today we'd have the #4 and #17 (Brooklyn)

Orlando:  If the season ended today they'd have the #3 and #12 (Denver). 

Winner:  Orlando

#2 - Future Picks

Boston:  They have 2015 Clippers pick and a few down the road for the Nets.

Orlando:  They have a 2016 Philly pick and 2017 Laker pick.. both have some protection, I believe. 

Winner:  Boston


#3 - Young Talent

Boston: 
-23 year old Bradley.  Meh player with meh future. 
-21 year old Sully looks pretty solid.   Top 10 sophomore.  6th in efficiency this year amongst sophomores.
-23 year old Olynyk -  Not bad.  5th amongst rookies in efficiency (9)... limited ceiling.  Meh.


Orlando:
-21 year old Tobias Harris:  Averaging 15 points 7 rebounds.  Not bad.
-23 year old Nikola Vucevik:  15 points, 11 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal.  Pretty solid 7 footer.
-21 year old Victor Oladipo:  Arguably best rookie.  Averaging 14 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 1.6 steals ... looks like a future star.

Winner:  Magic, easily.


#4 - Star assets:

Boston:  28 year old Rajon Rondo.  Looks like he did back when he was an all-star. 

Orlando:  28 year old Aaron Afflalo:  20 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 47%/44%/82% ... should have been an all-star this year.

Winner:  Has to be Boston.  Rondo would net a bigger return... though I think more teams would be interested in Affalo. 


#5 - Cap Situation

Boston:  If we extend Bradley we'll basically have no cap space next season.  We might have some in 2015, but it's unlikely.  Should be looking good in 2016 when Wallace (10 mil) and Green (9 mil) come off the books finally.

Orlando:  Looks like they'll have room this summer to sign 1 or 2 max contract players.   

Winner:  Magic


Overall?   Seems to me the Magic have a much brighter future.  We have franchise prestige and Danny Ainge working in our favor, though.   But I think I'd definitely swap situations with Orlando right now.  For sure.  A smart GM would have a ton of options with that team... and no albatross contracts killing their flexibility.   

[LarBrd33]

I kind of feel like Orlando and Boston could be draft day trade partners depending on which direction those two franchises decide to go.  Like... I could see us trading the Pierce trade exception + the Brooklyn pick for Afflalo?...

Alternatively, I could see the Magic using their cap space to absorb Rondo's contract... they could send back a pick.  The #3 is probably too much, but that Denver pick and maybe someone like Maurice Harkless would make sense.

I could just kind of envision one of those teams going full-blown youth. 

[pokeKingCurtis]

Both teams have, potentially, a top 5 pick.

They might not have to compromise. Stay competitive, let the top 5 pick grow in a good place rather than in a hole.

[Nerf DPOY]

I guess I'd give the edge to Orlando, though it's so tenuous I don't think it's worth dwelling on. What will determine whether or not either emerges as a powerhouse or remains in the gutter could just as easily come down to luck/fate as it would to sound decision making. Harris v Sullinger...meh, probably won't matter.

 Example: Denver had a very strange summer from an outsider's perspective, and maybe most of it was deserved. They look to be that "treadmill team" some deride here, with the exception that the way things are going, they have a serious shot at adding a franchise player with the Knicks pick (who were supposed to win 50 games this year). There's about 3 thousand other examples of happenings in the NBA that defy logic.

To sum it up, forecasting the future tends to be futile,but I'd probably pick Orlando.

[D.o.s.]

I bet Orlando gets the #1 pick, drafts Embiid, and he flees to the Lakers in 2022.

[SHAQATTACK]

I bet Orlando gets the #1 pick, drafts Embiid, and he flees to the Lakers in 2022.

Yup.  ......TP

[freshinthehouse]

Because of the future Net Picks and the fact that we have Danny Ainge running the show, I'll give the C's a slight edge.  Rob Hennigan shows promise (he fleeced the Bucks in that Harris trade last year), but I'll takes Ainge's track record over his.  Also, both teams have great owners, but the dude that owns the Magic is well into his 80s.  I have no idea what the plans are when he passes, but the Lakers are proof that losing a long-time owner can be a detriment to a franchise's success.

[pokeKingCurtis]

I bet Orlando gets the #1 pick, drafts Embiid, and he flees to the Lakers in 2022.

Yup.  ......TP

Vucevic goes first. Then Embiid.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I believe Boston is in a much better position. Sure Orlando currently has more ping pong balls but we have more assets and quality players. Teams like Orlando and Philly dumped quality players in order to have a losing record. While the celtics are right there with them and were able to hold onto our quality players (Bass, Green, Bradley, etc) all of whom championship caliber teams will want to trade for in the offseason after they lose in the playoffs.

As far As young talent goes HERE IS ANOTHER POINT OF VIEW:
Bradley vs Oladipo: Both are basically the same age and are putting up similar numbers....yeah look it up Bradley was one and done while Oladipo went three years in college .Oladipo turns 23 in like a month or so.

Sully is playing out of position. Many including ESPN regard him as the 5th best sophomore. And he has plenty of room to improve his conditioning and athleticism


  ....sorry its getting late can someone pick up where I left off

[LilRip]

Interesting. Boston's only edge, IMO, is Rondo. Orlando doesn't have a true star (yet? Who knows).

Picks, they're currently in a better position but it's a lottery for a reason.

[LarBrd33]

I believe Boston is in a much better position. Sure Orlando currently has more ping pong balls but we have more assets and quality players. Teams like Orlando and Philly dumped quality players in order to have a losing record. While the celtics are right there with them and were able to hold onto our quality players (Bass, Green, Bradley, etc) all of whom championship caliber teams will want to trade for in the offseason after they lose in the playoffs.

As far As young talent goes HERE IS ANOTHER POINT OF VIEW:
Bradley vs Oladipo: Both are basically the same age and are putting up similar numbers....yeah look it up Bradley was one and done while Oladipo went three years in college .Oladipo turns 23 in like a month or so.

Sully is playing out of position. Many including ESPN regard him as the 5th best sophomore. And he has plenty of room to improve his conditioning and athleticism


  ....sorry its getting late can someone pick up where I left off

Bradley is turning 24 this year.  Oladipo is 21.  As far as talent it's not even close.   

[Boris Badenov]

I think ORL has an ever-so-slight edge. I'd add to LB's evaluation:

#6 - Location

Edge: Orlando (taxes, weather)

#7 - GM

Edge: Boston...Danny has proven to be one of the better GMs. Hennigan has good early returns but a shorter track record.

I'd also rank us as the winner in draft picks by a big margin rather than a little one.

[colincb]

Our extra 2016-18 picks are with the Nets who appear doomed.  Theirs are with LAL and Philly with protection.  Likely mid-rounders for ORL and it could end up having just one extra first. Ours are unprotected firsts as well as a swap with a team seemingly destined for ruin. Much superior assets. As for current picks, 3 vs 4 (maybe on both) and 12 vs 17, are not that much different. Big edge BOS

Rondo's on another planet compared to Afflalo, who was being shopped and drew little interest at the deadline. Best player on a club that has been tanking all season, Afflaol's having a career year offensively, but been a below average offensive player for 6 of 7 years as a 3 point specialist and a below average defensive player (ranked 341st in the NBA in points per possession (PPP), this year which for a starting wing is putrid). A decent comparison was Courtney this year (as a Celtic) with Afflalo having slightly better offensive stats and lee having dramatically better defensive numbers. Courtney Lee is a better player with a better contract and with Memphis is a much better player than Afflalo. Rondo, Bass and Green are far superior to anything ORL has over 25 (Afflalo, Nelson, and crap). Big edge BOS.

For the under 25 crowd, go with ORL, but it's hardly a wipeout there although for some here our young talent stinks. Bradley/Oladipo is a fair comparison and Bradley has a slight edge statistically in PPP on both sides of the ball that may be attributable to more NBA experience and being just under a year and a half older. Sullinger has a big edge defensively in PPP [very good numbers for his experience really], while Vucevic has a smaller, but solid edge offensively, and is the better rebounder. I'd take Sullinger, but a case can be made for Vucevic. He'll get better defensively, but Sullinger will get better offensively.  Otherwise KO may (or may not turn out) to be the best of the rest of the under 25 crowd for both teams, but I don't see O'Quinn, Harris, Lamb or Harkless being much more than role players.  Edge ORL.

As for cap, assuming GW gets stretched in his last year, Green does not, and AB re-signs for $7MM, then the Cs are around $27M in 2015 without Rondo and ORL is around $28M with 4 qualifying offers out to Vucevic, Harris, Quinn, and Lamb likely to drive their cap up $10M. Gives BOS a head start of at least $12M before Rondo’s signing with Green coming off the books in 2016, BOS's would have some slight cap advantage or parity thereafter. ORL has a clear cap advantage this summer, but it's gone thereafter. Edge ORL.

Overall, I'd take BOS.  Big edge on picks and Rondo.

[BballTim]

I'm bored.  Brooklyn finally reached .500 today.  All this talk about us having our own pick + Brooklyn's pick + a handful of extra picks over the next 5 years... I was checking out some mock drafts when I realized that Orlando's situation is arguably better than ours.   Who do think has a brighter future?

#1 - 2014 Picks

Boston:  If the season ended today we'd have the #4 and #17 (Brooklyn)

Orlando:  If the season ended today they'd have the #3 and #12 (Denver). 

Winner:  Orlando

#2 - Future Picks

Boston:  They have 2015 Clippers pick and a few down the road for the Nets.

Orlando:  They have a 2016 Philly pick and 2017 Laker pick.. both have some protection, I believe. 

Winner:  Boston


#3 - Young Talent

Boston: 
-23 year old Bradley.  Meh player with meh future. 
-21 year old Sully looks pretty solid.   Top 10 sophomore.  6th in efficiency this year amongst sophomores.
-23 year old Olynyk -  Not bad.  5th amongst rookies in efficiency (9)... limited ceiling.  Meh.


Orlando:
-21 year old Tobias Harris:  Averaging 15 points 7 rebounds.  Not bad.
-23 year old Nikola Vucevik:  15 points, 11 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal.  Pretty solid 7 footer.
-21 year old Victor Oladipo:  Arguably best rookie.  Averaging 14 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 1.6 steals ... looks like a future star.

Winner:  Magic, easily.


#4 - Star assets:

Boston:  28 year old Rajon Rondo.  Looks like he did back when he was an all-star. 

Orlando:  28 year old Aaron Afflalo:  20 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 47%/44%/82% ... should have been an all-star this year.

Winner:  Has to be Boston.  Rondo would net a bigger return... though I think more teams would be interested in Affalo. 


#5 - Cap Situation

Boston:  If we extend Bradley we'll basically have no cap space next season.  We might have some in 2015, but it's unlikely.  Should be looking good in 2016 when Wallace (10 mil) and Green (9 mil) come off the books finally.

Orlando:  Looks like they'll have room this summer to sign 1 or 2 max contract players.   

Winner:  Magic


Overall?   Seems to me the Magic have a much brighter future.  We have franchise prestige and Danny Ainge working in our favor, though.   But I think I'd definitely swap situations with Orlando right now.  For sure.  A smart GM would have a ton of options with that team... and no albatross contracts killing their flexibility.   

  You forgot to factor in management, which is probably the biggest factor in the futures of the teams.

[The One]

The Orlando GM has Worcester roots; definite disadvantage.