Must have top 3 pick, Why?

[lbgreen33]

Saying that we Must get in the top 3 or 4 pick to get a great NBA player would go completely against what has happened for the last 15 years.  I created a list of players from the last 15 years and not one of them is a top 4 pick. Without fail it happens every year a great player is picked at # 5 and beyond.  But for some reason some people think this year you must be in the top 4, why?  I am not saying it wouldn't be great to have a top 3 pick, I am saying that history proves it doesn't matter as much as people think.  Luck is the real key!  So here is the list:

2012 at number # 6 Damian Lillard
2011 at # 9 Kemba Walker, maybe not great but really no one was that year.
2010 at # 10 Paul George
2009 at # 7 Stephen Curry
2008  at # 17 Roy Hibbert at # 10 Brook Lopez
2007  at # 9 Joakim Noah
2006  at # 21 Rajon Rondo and at # 8 Rudy Gay
2005 at # 17 Danny Granger and at # 30 David Lee
2004 at # 15 Al Jefferson  at # 17 Josh Smith
2003 at # 5 Dwyane Wade at # 18 David West
2002  at # 9 Amare Stoudemire
2001  at # 28 Tony Parker at # 10 Joe Johnson
2000 at # 18 Quentin Richardson
1999 at # 9  Shawn Marion
1998 at # 9 Dirk Nowitzki and of course at # 10 Paul Pierce!!!

[D.o.s.]

What's your criteria for a "great player"?

[lbgreen33]

I would take just about any player on that list and be very happy.  Isn't that what everyone hopes for in the draft?

[D.o.s.]

Yeah, I'd agree with that. That's a very different thing from what you suggested in your original post, though.

[tankwatch1]

This is the problem. Every year is different and unique. There are 4 players head and shoulders above the rest(Embiid,Wiggins,Parker,Exum). So to answer your question, that's why you want a top3 pick. These GM's are not dumb, look how they held onto the 1st round picks like gold at the trade deadline. This is a unique year, with game changing, franchise players in the top 4. All those stats above about being in the top 3 don't hold water in my opinion.

[mqtcelticsfan]

What's your criteria for a "great player"?

Given that Quentin Richardson qualifies, there probably is none.

[LilRip]

What's your criteria for a "great player"?

Given that Quentin Richardson qualifies, there probably is none.

Tankin' for Quentin

[lbgreen33]

I don't post often, then I say hey why not write on the Celtics blog.  Then when I do and I go oh yes, that is why I don't often post on the Celtics Blog.  It is OK to disagree, but that is my opinion.

[lbgreen33]

Oh yes, and I am sorry but time will tell if the top 4 are head and shoulders above the rest.  Saying that they definatley are is just your opinion.

[BUTerrier]

I get the point you're making, but I don't think that including Wade on this list is fair. The Pistons ignored every scouting report out there in picking Darko because they figured he was an international player who'd get better. This was 2003; the NBA has gotten exponentially better in understanding the strengths and limitations of foreign players now. And, really, at that time, who would you have picked below Wade? An 18 year old LeBron? A 19 year old Melo? A 19 year old Bosh? Honestly, there'd be some argument that those three are STILL better than Wade (well, none for LeBron; some for Melo and Bosh.)

[lbgreen33]

That is a very good point about Wade. That was a very good year to have a top 3 pick. Does seem like every year someone drops though.

[TheFlex]

I don't mean to be nasty but this topic is becoming annoying, to be honest. Of course we could beat the odds and select a franchise player outside of the top 3, but is it as likely as selecting one inside the top 3? I doubt it. If we don't get a high pick it isn't the end of the world, but all of these threads that try to overrate the value of a pick outside the top three, and underrate the value of a pick inside the top three, are rather ridiculous.

[lbgreen33]

I don't agree. The draft is luck, there are very few sure things.
That said everyone wants a top 3 pick. I am just saying the draft comes down to luck in many ways.

[Donoghus]

I want a top 3 pick because anyone from the Embiid/Wiggins/Parker bunch fills an immediate need for the Celtics (would prefer either Embiid or Parker personally)

Exam & Randle don't fill immediate needs for the Celtics as much.  They have a top 7 or so PG in Rondo and already have a glut of power forwards.

[PhoSita]

I've said for a while now . . . top 10 picks are what contenders are made of.  It's a great asset to have, whether you trade it or develop the player into a star or develop the player and then trade them for a star.

Some teams have won the title without a high pick, so it's not a requirement to get to that level.  But it sure makes it easier.

Getting a top 5 or top 10 pick hardly guarantees that you get a really valuable player, either, let alone a superstar.  But if you want to find one of those in the draft, your chances are much, much better in the top 10.