Author Topic: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?  (Read 30567 times)

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Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2014, 03:12:06 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Imo who cares if the east sucks. Better chance to get into the playoffs and give next seasons team a chance to taste the playoff experience. You have to move fwd somehow and cant be banking on drafting the next lebron or making a trade for a top player

While I agree that we should move ahead at some point, and we should aim for the playoffs if not next year then soon, your statement that you can't bank on drafting a superstar OR trading for one doesn't make sense. You can't honestly expect this team as is to contend just by gaining experience. Sure, we shouldn't bank on drafting the next Lebron, but we have to trade and/or sign a couple of top players soon if we hope to contend. That's what that war chest of 1st round picks Ainge has put together is for.

It's not mandatory you need to give up multiple picks say for a Kevin Love. Imo actually that would be a mistake, he is a good player, but is overpaid and a defensive liability.

You will have a very good chance to draft 2 or 3 good players from 2014 to 2015 draft.  You can accelerate their development by having them go through a playoff series

I'm happy to attempt to take the pacers route and build a team through the draft, making trades signing FA that make sense , get into the playoffs and become where they are today, a top championship level team. IF another KG/PP/Allen trade opportunity comes, then sure explore it. But as of right now or in the near future that is not looking like the case. Guys like Love and Melo are not in the same league as those guys imo.

I want to make the playoffs next year and start building a winning culture and let the rest take care of itself

That plan you describe leaves way too much to chance. You have to land two top players one way or another if you want to contend, and hoping you get lucky and they come through mid round picks in the next few years isn't going to work out. You get stuck as a a perennial 1st round exit. What is the chance that we get a Hibbert and Paul George in the next 3 years through the draft if we make the playoffs? Not very good.

We have to land a star with our lottery pick this summer, and either trade Rondo or move our collection of 1st rounders and young players like Bradley and Olynyk for top level players to put around Rondo.

I think a lot is riding on where our 1st ends up in this lottery.

Paul George and Hibbert were correctly drafted where they were. And they are the players today bc they have been influenced and grown due to the pacers winning culture in place. Now they are adding to the this environment further

Having a player like KG suddenly change the culture and mentality of a team is rare. It's safer to build the culture and let the players coming in, get influenced and better at their games.

Celtics right now are in a crappy situation. Not enough talent/maturity , brad stevens is a rookie coach and loss of reliance on PP/KG are big. But next season you can expect improvements from Sullinger (who had had zero chance to improve his body due to his surgery), Olynyk who has been improving as the season is progressing (and with a better body next season will be even better), Jeff Green playing better as of late etc.

Now this upcoming draft i expect us to get a top 7 pick. At worse a 6-7 pick.  You also can hit a home run with the 17 or 18 bc danny is going to draft a player that drops (like sullinger).  A few FA pick up here and there and we will have a decent team to at least compete for 7th,8th spot.

The question of this thread is, do you expect the team to make the playoffs next season (without a blockbuster addition or trade). Not do you want the team to make it. I don't like the route of tanking, getting higher spots at the draft, build current talent and then wasting it all on a Kevin Love. 

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #31 on: March 01, 2014, 03:35:09 PM »

Offline Jailan34

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Imo who cares if the east sucks. Better chance to get into the playoffs and give next seasons team a chance to taste the playoff experience. You have to move fwd somehow and cant be banking on drafting the next lebron or making a trade for a top player

While I agree that we should move ahead at some point, and we should aim for the playoffs if not next year then soon, your statement that you can't bank on drafting a superstar OR trading for one doesn't make sense. You can't honestly expect this team as is to contend just by gaining experience. Sure, we shouldn't bank on drafting the next Lebron, but we have to trade and/or sign a couple of top players soon if we hope to contend. That's what that war chest of 1st round picks Ainge has put together is for.

It's not mandatory you need to give up multiple picks say for a Kevin Love. Imo actually that would be a mistake, he is a good player, but is overpaid and a defensive liability.

You will have a very good chance to draft 2 or 3 good players from 2014 to 2015 draft.  You can accelerate their development by having them go through a playoff series

I'm happy to attempt to take the pacers route and build a team through the draft, making trades signing FA that make sense , get into the playoffs and become where they are today, a top championship level team. IF another KG/PP/Allen trade opportunity comes, then sure explore it. But as of right now or in the near future that is not looking like the case. Guys like Love and Melo are not in the same league as those guys imo.

I want to make the playoffs next year and start building a winning culture and let the rest take care of itself

That plan you describe leaves way too much to chance. You have to land two top players one way or another if you want to contend, and hoping you get lucky and they come through mid round picks in the next few years isn't going to work out. You get stuck as a a perennial 1st round exit. What is the chance that we get a Hibbert and Paul George in the next 3 years through the draft if we make the playoffs? Not very good.

We have to land a star with our lottery pick this summer, and either trade Rondo or move our collection of 1st rounders and young players like Bradley and Olynyk for top level players to put around Rondo.

I think a lot is riding on where our 1st ends up in this lottery.

Paul George and Hibbert were correctly drafted where they were. And they are the players today bc they have been influenced and grown due to the pacers winning culture in place. Now they are adding to the this environment further

Having a player like KG suddenly change the culture and mentality of a team is rare. It's safer to build the culture and let the players coming in, get influenced and better at their games.

Celtics right now are in a crappy situation. Not enough talent/maturity , brad stevens is a rookie coach and loss of reliance on PP/KG are big. But next season you can expect improvements from Sullinger (who had had zero chance to improve his body due to his surgery), Olynyk who has been improving as the season is progressing (and with a better body next season will be even better), Jeff Green playing better as of late etc.

Now this upcoming draft i expect us to get a top 7 pick. At worse a 6-7 pick.  You also can hit a home run with the 17 or 18 bc danny is going to draft a player that drops (like sullinger).  A few FA pick up here and there and we will have a decent team to at least compete for 7th,8th spot.

The question of this thread is, do you expect the team to make the playoffs next season (without a blockbuster addition or trade). Not do you want the team to make it. I don't like the route of tanking, getting higher spots at the draft, build current talent and then wasting it all on a Kevin Love. 

Come on now, a winning culture doesn't make a solid player into a Paul George, that's all talent man.
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Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2014, 03:47:22 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Imo who cares if the east sucks. Better chance to get into the playoffs and give next seasons team a chance to taste the playoff experience. You have to move fwd somehow and cant be banking on drafting the next lebron or making a trade for a top player

While I agree that we should move ahead at some point, and we should aim for the playoffs if not next year then soon, your statement that you can't bank on drafting a superstar OR trading for one doesn't make sense. You can't honestly expect this team as is to contend just by gaining experience. Sure, we shouldn't bank on drafting the next Lebron, but we have to trade and/or sign a couple of top players soon if we hope to contend. That's what that war chest of 1st round picks Ainge has put together is for.

It's not mandatory you need to give up multiple picks say for a Kevin Love. Imo actually that would be a mistake, he is a good player, but is overpaid and a defensive liability.

You will have a very good chance to draft 2 or 3 good players from 2014 to 2015 draft.  You can accelerate their development by having them go through a playoff series

I'm happy to attempt to take the pacers route and build a team through the draft, making trades signing FA that make sense , get into the playoffs and become where they are today, a top championship level team. IF another KG/PP/Allen trade opportunity comes, then sure explore it. But as of right now or in the near future that is not looking like the case. Guys like Love and Melo are not in the same league as those guys imo.

I want to make the playoffs next year and start building a winning culture and let the rest take care of itself

That plan you describe leaves way too much to chance. You have to land two top players one way or another if you want to contend, and hoping you get lucky and they come through mid round picks in the next few years isn't going to work out. You get stuck as a a perennial 1st round exit. What is the chance that we get a Hibbert and Paul George in the next 3 years through the draft if we make the playoffs? Not very good.

We have to land a star with our lottery pick this summer, and either trade Rondo or move our collection of 1st rounders and young players like Bradley and Olynyk for top level players to put around Rondo.

I think a lot is riding on where our 1st ends up in this lottery.

Paul George and Hibbert were correctly drafted where they were. And they are the players today bc they have been influenced and grown due to the pacers winning culture in place. Now they are adding to the this environment further

Having a player like KG suddenly change the culture and mentality of a team is rare. It's safer to build the culture and let the players coming in, get influenced and better at their games.

Celtics right now are in a crappy situation. Not enough talent/maturity , brad stevens is a rookie coach and loss of reliance on PP/KG are big. But next season you can expect improvements from Sullinger (who had had zero chance to improve his body due to his surgery), Olynyk who has been improving as the season is progressing (and with a better body next season will be even better), Jeff Green playing better as of late etc.

Now this upcoming draft i expect us to get a top 7 pick. At worse a 6-7 pick.  You also can hit a home run with the 17 or 18 bc danny is going to draft a player that drops (like sullinger).  A few FA pick up here and there and we will have a decent team to at least compete for 7th,8th spot.

The question of this thread is, do you expect the team to make the playoffs next season (without a blockbuster addition or trade). Not do you want the team to make it. I don't like the route of tanking, getting higher spots at the draft, build current talent and then wasting it all on a Kevin Love. 

Come on now, a winning culture doesn't make a solid player into a Paul George, that's all talent man.

A talent that got picked 10th overall? The 7 or so other teams couldn't have all made a mistake of passing up on him.  You think the Bobcats could make what Paul George is today or vice versa (like the pacers?). 

I'm not stating George is just another player, the potential/upside was there, just playing with the pacers has helped him reach his peak. And George has contributed to the system along the journey

when you have a bad team and insert KG into the team, i agree one player can change alot of things. Guys like George, Hibbert don't have that kind of influence individually. Look at Melo right now. He is being paid to carry the team and he can't mainly bc the knicks culture is crap.  You got crappy character players like JR Smith and Felton on the team. A coach that is brutal. Just a mess

I bet though if you traded Melo to the pacers team, they would just keep trucking along but George no way can turn around the mess with what is going on with the knicks. Only two guys that prob can is Lebron and Durant.

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #33 on: March 01, 2014, 03:49:24 PM »

Offline Birdman

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nope
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Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2014, 04:24:30 PM »

Offline vinnie

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No

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #35 on: March 01, 2014, 04:41:25 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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Idk...depends if ainge trades or keeps our lotto pick. If we get a top 3 pick i think we will use it but  that means wed be tanking again next year

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #36 on: March 01, 2014, 04:44:15 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Imo who cares if the east sucks. Better chance to get into the playoffs and give next seasons team a chance to taste the playoff experience. You have to move fwd somehow and cant be banking on drafting the next lebron or making a trade for a top player

While I agree that we should move ahead at some point, and we should aim for the playoffs if not next year then soon, your statement that you can't bank on drafting a superstar OR trading for one doesn't make sense. You can't honestly expect this team as is to contend just by gaining experience. Sure, we shouldn't bank on drafting the next Lebron, but we have to trade and/or sign a couple of top players soon if we hope to contend. That's what that war chest of 1st round picks Ainge has put together is for.

It's not mandatory you need to give up multiple picks say for a Kevin Love. Imo actually that would be a mistake, he is a good player, but is overpaid and a defensive liability.

You will have a very good chance to draft 2 or 3 good players from 2014 to 2015 draft.  You can accelerate their development by having them go through a playoff series

I'm happy to attempt to take the pacers route and build a team through the draft, making trades signing FA that make sense , get into the playoffs and become where they are today, a top championship level team. IF another KG/PP/Allen trade opportunity comes, then sure explore it. But as of right now or in the near future that is not looking like the case. Guys like Love and Melo are not in the same league as those guys imo.

I want to make the playoffs next year and start building a winning culture and let the rest take care of itself

That plan you describe leaves way too much to chance. You have to land two top players one way or another if you want to contend, and hoping you get lucky and they come through mid round picks in the next few years isn't going to work out. You get stuck as a a perennial 1st round exit. What is the chance that we get a Hibbert and Paul George in the next 3 years through the draft if we make the playoffs? Not very good.

We have to land a star with our lottery pick this summer, and either trade Rondo or move our collection of 1st rounders and young players like Bradley and Olynyk for top level players to put around Rondo.

I think a lot is riding on where our 1st ends up in this lottery.

Paul George and Hibbert were correctly drafted where they were. And they are the players today bc they have been influenced and grown due to the pacers winning culture in place. Now they are adding to the this environment further

Having a player like KG suddenly change the culture and mentality of a team is rare. It's safer to build the culture and let the players coming in, get influenced and better at their games.

Celtics right now are in a crappy situation. Not enough talent/maturity , brad stevens is a rookie coach and loss of reliance on PP/KG are big. But next season you can expect improvements from Sullinger (who had had zero chance to improve his body due to his surgery), Olynyk who has been improving as the season is progressing (and with a better body next season will be even better), Jeff Green playing better as of late etc.

Now this upcoming draft i expect us to get a top 7 pick. At worse a 6-7 pick.  You also can hit a home run with the 17 or 18 bc danny is going to draft a player that drops (like sullinger).  A few FA pick up here and there and we will have a decent team to at least compete for 7th,8th spot.

The question of this thread is, do you expect the team to make the playoffs next season (without a blockbuster addition or trade). Not do you want the team to make it. I don't like the route of tanking, getting higher spots at the draft, build current talent and then wasting it all on a Kevin Love. 

Come on now, a winning culture doesn't make a solid player into a Paul George, that's all talent man.

A talent that got picked 10th overall? The 7 or so other teams couldn't have all made a mistake of passing up on him.  You think the Bobcats could make what Paul George is today or vice versa (like the pacers?). 

What you're talking about is kinda part of the Outliers principle that Gladwell came up with.  I talked about it in a thread about Antoine Walker a couple months ago... Walker had huge potential, but didn't reach it, because he had the wrong system.  Meanwhile, Rondo had moderate potential, but vastly exceeded it, because he had a perfect system and perfect mentors showing him the way.

That said... Yeah, Paul George was an elite prospect.  As far back as his rookie season Indiana fans were calling him a phenom.  He shouldn't have fallen as far in the draft as he did.  He had a very high ceiling.

What you're saying is that someone with little-to-no potential will turn into a star if the team makes the playoffs and loses in the first round.  That's just silly.  You have a better chance of landing a star the higher your pick. 

Paul George is an example of a player who slipped further in the draft than he should of.  Much like Paul Pierce.  He's not an example of a player who went from "nobody" to "star", because Indiana dabbled in wins.  Kind of like Giannis is right now.   Still, the jury is out whether Giannis will reach his potential.  That's where the "outliers" thing comes into play... if an elite prospect like Giannis was playing for an elite organization, maybe he would have a better shot of reaching his peak than right now on the garbage Bucks.  He could end up like Anthony Randolph.  That doesn't change the fact that it's rare for prospects of that caliber to slip.  And Paul George was a #10 pick... that's still a lotto talent.

I think the idea that Kelly Olynyk's future can range between "Rich man's Brian Scalabrine" and "Poor man's Dirk Nowitzki" depending on whether or not Boston makes the playoffs this year is completely offbase.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 04:50:09 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #37 on: March 01, 2014, 04:59:13 PM »

Offline BballTim

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What you're talking about is kinda part of the Outliers principle that Gladwell came up with.  I talked about it in a thread about Antoine Walker a couple months ago... Walker had huge potential, but didn't reach it, because he had the wrong system.  Meanwhile, Rondo had moderate potential, but vastly exceeded it, because he had a perfect system and perfect mentors showing him the way.

  Rondo had serious potential that was obvious from pretty much the exhibition season of his rookie year. He didn't vastly exceed his potential, you were just unable to spot it. His success has been due to that talent in spite of spending most of his career in a system that suited his teammates more than it suited him.

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #38 on: March 01, 2014, 05:05:42 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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What you're talking about is kinda part of the Outliers principle that Gladwell came up with.  I talked about it in a thread about Antoine Walker a couple months ago... Walker had huge potential, but didn't reach it, because he had the wrong system.  Meanwhile, Rondo had moderate potential, but vastly exceeded it, because he had a perfect system and perfect mentors showing him the way.

  Rondo had serious potential that was obvious from pretty much the exhibition season of his rookie year. He didn't vastly exceed his potential, you were just unable to spot it. His success has been due to that talent in spite of spending most of his career in a system that suited his teammates more than it suited him.
lol ok.  Whatever.

« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 05:41:35 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2014, 05:15:55 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Imo who cares if the east sucks. Better chance to get into the playoffs and give next seasons team a chance to taste the playoff experience. You have to move fwd somehow and cant be banking on drafting the next lebron or making a trade for a top player

While I agree that we should move ahead at some point, and we should aim for the playoffs if not next year then soon, your statement that you can't bank on drafting a superstar OR trading for one doesn't make sense. You can't honestly expect this team as is to contend just by gaining experience. Sure, we shouldn't bank on drafting the next Lebron, but we have to trade and/or sign a couple of top players soon if we hope to contend. That's what that war chest of 1st round picks Ainge has put together is for.

It's not mandatory you need to give up multiple picks say for a Kevin Love. Imo actually that would be a mistake, he is a good player, but is overpaid and a defensive liability.

You will have a very good chance to draft 2 or 3 good players from 2014 to 2015 draft.  You can accelerate their development by having them go through a playoff series

I'm happy to attempt to take the pacers route and build a team through the draft, making trades signing FA that make sense , get into the playoffs and become where they are today, a top championship level team. IF another KG/PP/Allen trade opportunity comes, then sure explore it. But as of right now or in the near future that is not looking like the case. Guys like Love and Melo are not in the same league as those guys imo.

I want to make the playoffs next year and start building a winning culture and let the rest take care of itself

That plan you describe leaves way too much to chance. You have to land two top players one way or another if you want to contend, and hoping you get lucky and they come through mid round picks in the next few years isn't going to work out. You get stuck as a a perennial 1st round exit. What is the chance that we get a Hibbert and Paul George in the next 3 years through the draft if we make the playoffs? Not very good.

We have to land a star with our lottery pick this summer, and either trade Rondo or move our collection of 1st rounders and young players like Bradley and Olynyk for top level players to put around Rondo.

I think a lot is riding on where our 1st ends up in this lottery.

Paul George and Hibbert were correctly drafted where they were. And they are the players today bc they have been influenced and grown due to the pacers winning culture in place. Now they are adding to the this environment further

Having a player like KG suddenly change the culture and mentality of a team is rare. It's safer to build the culture and let the players coming in, get influenced and better at their games.

Celtics right now are in a crappy situation. Not enough talent/maturity , brad stevens is a rookie coach and loss of reliance on PP/KG are big. But next season you can expect improvements from Sullinger (who had had zero chance to improve his body due to his surgery), Olynyk who has been improving as the season is progressing (and with a better body next season will be even better), Jeff Green playing better as of late etc.

Now this upcoming draft i expect us to get a top 7 pick. At worse a 6-7 pick.  You also can hit a home run with the 17 or 18 bc danny is going to draft a player that drops (like sullinger).  A few FA pick up here and there and we will have a decent team to at least compete for 7th,8th spot.

The question of this thread is, do you expect the team to make the playoffs next season (without a blockbuster addition or trade). Not do you want the team to make it. I don't like the route of tanking, getting higher spots at the draft, build current talent and then wasting it all on a Kevin Love. 

Come on now, a winning culture doesn't make a solid player into a Paul George, that's all talent man.

A talent that got picked 10th overall? The 7 or so other teams couldn't have all made a mistake of passing up on him.  You think the Bobcats could make what Paul George is today or vice versa (like the pacers?). 

What you're talking about is kinda part of the Outliers principle that Gladwell came up with.  I talked about it in a thread about Antoine Walker a couple months ago... Walker had huge potential, but didn't reach it, because he had the wrong system.  Meanwhile, Rondo had moderate potential, but vastly exceeded it, because he had a perfect system and perfect mentors showing him the way.

That said... Yeah, Paul George was an elite prospect.  As far back as his rookie season Indiana fans were calling him a phenom.  He shouldn't have fallen as far in the draft as he did.  He had a very high ceiling.

What you're saying is that someone with little-to-no potential will turn into a star if the team makes the playoffs and loses in the first round.  That's just silly.  You have a better chance of landing a star the higher your pick. 

Paul George is an example of a player who slipped further in the draft than he should of.  Much like Paul Pierce.  He's not an example of a player who went from "nobody" to "star", because Indiana dabbled in wins.  Kind of like Giannis is right now.   Still, the jury is out whether Giannis will reach his potential.  That's where the "outliers" thing comes into play... if an elite prospect like Giannis was playing for an elite organization, maybe he would have a better shot of reaching his peak than right now on the garbage Bucks.  He could end up like Anthony Randolph.  That doesn't change the fact that it's rare for prospects of that caliber to slip.  And Paul George was a #10 pick... that's still a lotto talent.

I think the idea that Kelly Olynyk's future can range between "Rich man's Brian Scalabrine" and "Poor man's Dirk Nowitzki" depending on whether or not Boston makes the playoffs this year is completely offbase.

sorry but no. Look at George stats before he got drafted. He was shooting it at 42 fg percentage. How many guys do you know who shoot poorly in college end up shooting  better in the nba? 

Based on that 42 fg percentage alone, regardless of potential/upside, not many players get chosen in the top 5

George has been able to raise his game due to the fact he is playing for the pacers. When he was drafted, it wasn't a top team nor bottom team.  But a proper system was in place and playoff experience under the teams belt. George has definitely helped add to this success also.

Getting Love and Melo and trading alot of chips we got is a risky move.  Guys like Love and Melo also could care less what Stevens has to say bc they think of themselves as superstars.   My plan for the Celts is to build a strong team culture, and make the playoffs utilizing internal sources. Then if you want to add a Love to make the team even better than go ahead, if it makes sense. But don't rely on a guy that has never made the nba playoffs yet

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #40 on: March 01, 2014, 05:26:03 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Two major things wrong with the Paul George example.

1. George was picked #10, a lottery pick. By definition if you advocate making the playoffs, we won't even sniff a #10 pick. We will be picking late teens to early 20's.

2. How many #10 picks end up being superstars on contending teams? Not many, regardless of the "winning culture" of the team.

It's the players and coach that make a winning culture, not the GM. It's the job of the GM to get great players and coaches, any way he can. Telling his team of mediocre players to aim for the playoffs and then closing his eyes and hoping his draft picks from the 17-20 range become the next Pierce or Paul George is the quickest way to long term mediocrity. Tyler Hansborough was drafted #13 by the Pacers. Why didn't the winning culture make him a star?

Sooner or later you have to sign those players to long term deals or they walk. Would you sign Olynyk or Bradley to a max deal if they stay about where they are but the team makes the 1st round? That would be like the Rick Fox and Dee Brown signing we made in the dark era.

If a player actually becomes a star, like Kevin Love, or even Lebron, they need more than a taste of the playoffs and a positive culture to sign with you long term. Lebron went to the [dang] finals and still bolted Cleveland. Shaq went to the playoffs in Orlando and still left for LA. Same for Dwight Howard.

Instead of hoping your mid-late draft picks become stars, and then decide to sign extensions with you, it's much more productive to acquire assets like AInge has done, and then trade them for proven stars to build a legit contender. Either that, or get lucky by landing a Duncan or Lebron in the lottery, but even then you have to get the stars around them to make them stay.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 05:34:45 PM by hpantazo »

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2014, 05:26:49 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Short answer---no.

Figure we'll be in the lottery again next year.  Thinking Danny will make us a playoff team the following year with a very good foundation of players to be very good for several years.

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2014, 05:48:49 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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pacers got extremely lucky with George. they drafted him thinking they were getting a defensive stud with limited offensive game. i'm sure they were hoping he'd be an all-star. but they had no idea he'd blow up the way he has.

while the pacers story is a good one. it still took luck. if George doesn't become the player he is they are likely in the middle of the pack in the NBA.

I don't know if I want to see us go the same route as the pacers. it took them at least what 10 yrs? to be lucky and considered a contender again...if you consider those reggie miller teams actual contenders.

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #43 on: March 01, 2014, 05:50:49 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Two major things wrong with the Paul George example.

1. George was picked #10, a lottery pick. By definition if you advocate making the playoffs, we won't even sniff a #10 pick. We will be picking late teens to early 20's.

2. How many #10 picks end up being superstars on contending teams? Not many, regardless of the "winning culture" of the team.

It's the players and coach that make a winning culture, not the GM. It's the job of the GM to get great players and coaches, any way he can. Telling his team of mediocre players to aim for the playoffs and then closing his eyes and hoping his draft picks from the 17-20 range become the next Pierce or Paul George is the quickest way to long term mediocrity. Tyler Hansborough was drafted #13 by the Pacers. Why didn't the winning culture make him a star?

Sooner or later you have to sign those players to long term deals or they walk. Would you sign Olynyk or Bradley to a max deal if they stay about where they are but the team makes the 1st round? That would be like the Rick Fox and Dee Brown signing we made in the dark era.

If a player actually becomes a star, like Kevin Love, or even Lebron, they need more than a taste of the playoffs and a positive culture to sign with you long term. Lebron went to the [dang] finals and still bolted Cleveland. Shaq went to the playoffs in Orlando and still left for LA. Same for Dwight Howard.

Instead of hoping your mid-late draft picks become stars, and then decide to sign extensions with you, it's much more productive to acquire assets like AInge has done, and then trade them for proven stars to build a legit contender. Either that, or get lucky by landing a Duncan or Lebron in the lottery, but even then you have to get the stars around them to make them stay.

I don't understand why your overlooking our 2014 picks. Especially the possibility of a top 5 pick.

I'm not asking if we will make the playoffs with the team we got now plus a mid lotto to early 20 pick.  The 2014 picks are going to help

Your example of hansborough is a little extreme and mainly to strengthen your point. But i can also strengthen mine and list guys like Stephenson who was chosen in the 2nd round and look where he is now. The spurs also do this with many players with mainly potential/upside helping them reach peak play bc of pops and the system in place.

The bottom line for me is i rather take the Spurs, Pacers route. People will argue well they got great players that should of been chosen much earlier. Well fine, then we can get lucky too. It takes a good GM to pull it off and Danny is a good GM.  Others want to try to do what many teams today are trying to do (but failing and worse having a huge payroll), trade picks, young assets for guys like Love but getting nowhere

the 2008 celts team, 2011 miami heat gangup and Rockets fortunate situation with Harden and Howard don't happen everyday. It happens as often as drafting a Duncan. Building through the draft , building your team within is more realistic.  Danny imo brought in Stevens bc this is the route the org is going to take in the short run. Again if there is a KG/Allen avail you think long and hard to make the trade but none are. Not really confident any big FA will want to sign with us in 2015 also.

Re: Do you expect the Celts to make the playoffs next season?
« Reply #44 on: March 01, 2014, 05:53:09 PM »

Offline BballTim

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What you're talking about is kinda part of the Outliers principle that Gladwell came up with.  I talked about it in a thread about Antoine Walker a couple months ago... Walker had huge potential, but didn't reach it, because he had the wrong system.  Meanwhile, Rondo had moderate potential, but vastly exceeded it, because he had a perfect system and perfect mentors showing him the way.

  Rondo had serious potential that was obvious from pretty much the exhibition season of his rookie year. He didn't vastly exceed his potential, you were just unable to spot it. His success has been due to that talent in spite of spending most of his career in a system that suited his teammates more than it suited him.
lol ok.  Whatever.



  Just pointing out the obvious.