Could Ainge go against conventional wisdom

[CFAN38]

recent interview with DA

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/02/21/ainge-we-do-have-a-direction-everything-is-going-to-plan/


DA "You have to operate from building a team like the Pistons won it in 2004, and Sacramento was a team that came very very close to winning a championship with no superstars if it wasn’t for a fluke call in Game 7 against the Lakers.”

This brings up an interesting idea. Right now in the NBA the prevailing logic is that you need to create a team built around max deal star who are surrounded by cheap complimentary pieces (IE Heat, OKC, Knick, Nets). What Aigne is saying is that you cant bank on getting these one in a generation stars like Lebron and Durant so you have to build a team. Where currently good but not star players making 6-9 are viewed as bad contracts maybe a different angle would be to embrace them are short term deals.

Granted the NBA cap isn't hard but it is roughly 58mill with various loop holes that allow team to get to a 71 mill luxury tax. So if your roster is under the tax at say 68mill and you don't have 1 of the 5 best players in the league are you better off giving max money to secondary stars or stretching that money out of the top 7-8 rotation players and building a team of 8-11mill dollar guys?

looking around the NBA a current players not on rookie deal this could build a team of the following.

PG  Conley  8.6mill
SG  Affalo  7.5mill
SF  Green   8.7mill
PF  Milsap  9.5mill
C   Asik    8.4mill

6th T Young    8.9mill
7th J Crawford 5.2mill (jamal)
8th R Lopez    5.9mill
TOTAL          62.7mill

Is this an alternative model for success in the NBA? How would this model match-up in a 7 game series vs OKC or Miami? Could this be the path DA takes in the near future if a super star is not attainable?

[GreenWarrior]

ainge is spot on here. there's so many variables that come into play in trying to draft that next "Jordan". a lot of it comes down to being in the position to draft that player when he comes along.

but waiting for such a player is futile. the best thing we can do is acquire as many assets as possible and put ourselves in position to do anything. ainge has done that and done it well.

[TwinTower14]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

[wdleehi]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

And Rasheed Wallace was at the same talent level as the best big men of the time, he just wasn't a guy who demanded the shots. 

[Moranis]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

um, Chauncey Billups was not an all star on either Pistons team that made the finals.  Ben Wallace was the only all star on those two teams.  Rasheed, Chauncey, and Rip all became all stars for the decline of those teams, not their peak.   Chauncey, despite winning Finals MVP, was in fact the 4th best player on the title team throughout the season (well at least post Sheed trade).   Chauncey had an excellent finals, but he was actually pretty bad for much of that post-season as well.  That is what made that team so good and that said they were in fact pretty lucky to run into a very injured and dysfunctional Lakers team and they barely got by the Nets in the second round.

[bdm860]

Chris Webber was averaging 24.5ppg,, 10.1rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, and 1.4bpg in ‘02, and was 1st or 2nd team All-NBA for 3 straight years, if that’s not considered a superstar I don’t know what it is.

Plus he had 2 other All-Stars on the team in Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic.

Detroit had the best defensive player in the last 15 years, and also had 4 others guys who would go on to become All-Stars (Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Mehmet Okur).

Both teams had guys that were top 3 players at their positions (Webber, Ben Wallace), and probably a couple of more that were considered top 3-5 at one point or another  (Billups, Divac, Peja, etc.).

So ya, if Ainge could just put together a team of 4-5 guys that will go to be All-Stars, built around 1 lesser superstar, then I'm all for it, but let's not act like it's that easy. Conley, Affalo, Green, Milsap, and Asik sure aren't going to get it done.

[TwinTower14]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

um, Chauncey Billups was not an all star on either Pistons team that made the finals.  Ben Wallace was the only all star on those two teams.  Rasheed, Chauncey, and Rip all became all stars for the decline of those teams, not their peak.   Chauncey, despite winning Finals MVP, was in fact the 4th best player on the title team throughout the season (well at least post Sheed trade).   Chauncey had an excellent finals, but he was actually pretty bad for much of that post-season as well.  That is what made that team so good and that said they were in fact pretty lucky to run into a very injured and dysfunctional Lakers team and they barely got by the Nets in the second round.

Billups regular season - 17/6/3 88% from the line and 39% from 3...Playoffs - 16/6/3 and the percentages are all about the same.  I highly doubt there were 4 players better than him on that team.  Chauncey Billups was a very good player on that team as was Wallace.  The model constructed above, those two guys would be better than anyone listed. 

[TwinTower14]

Chris Webber was averaging 24.5ppg,, 10.1rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, and 1.4bpg in ‘02, and was 1st or 2nd team All-NBA for 3 straight years, if that’s not considered a superstar I don’t know what it is.

Plus he had 2 other All-Stars on the team in Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic.

Detroit had the best defensive player in the last 15 years, and also had 4 others guys who would go on to become All-Stars (Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Mehmet Okur).

Both teams had guys that were top 3 players at their positions (Webber, Ben Wallace), and probably a couple of more that were considered top 3-5 at one point or another  (Billups, Divac, Peja, etc.).

So ya, if Ainge could just put together a team of 4-5 guys that will go to be All-Stars, built around 1 lesser superstar, then I'm all for it, but let's not act like it's that easy. Conley, Affalo, Green, Milsap, and Asik sure aren't going to get it done.

Great post - People forget how great Webber was and I even forgot about Peja.  That Kings team was loaded.  They won 61 games, you don't win 61 games in the NBA without stars...

[TwinTower14]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

um, Chauncey Billups was not an all star on either Pistons team that made the finals.  Ben Wallace was the only all star on those two teams.  Rasheed, Chauncey, and Rip all became all stars for the decline of those teams, not their peak.   Chauncey, despite winning Finals MVP, was in fact the 4th best player on the title team throughout the season (well at least post Sheed trade).   Chauncey had an excellent finals, but he was actually pretty bad for much of that post-season as well.  That is what made that team so good and that said they were in fact pretty lucky to run into a very injured and dysfunctional Lakers team and they barely got by the Nets in the second round.

Billups regular season - 17/6/3 88% from the line and 39% from 3...Playoffs - 16/6/3 and the percentages are all about the same.  I highly doubt there were 4 players better than him on that team.  Chauncey Billups was a very good player on that team as was Wallace.  The model constructed above, those two guys would be better than anyone listed.

Forgot to mention that after that finals, where he was the MVP, he went on to play in 5 out 6 All-Star games.  Pretty much the same run that Rondo has been on the last few years....

[Boris Badenov]

Chris Webber was averaging 24.5ppg,, 10.1rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, and 1.4bpg in ‘02, and was 1st or 2nd team All-NBA for 3 straight years, if that’s not considered a superstar I don’t know what it is.

Plus he had 2 other All-Stars on the team in Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic.

Detroit had the best defensive player in the last 15 years, and also had 4 others guys who would go on to become All-Stars (Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Mehmet Okur).

Both teams had guys that were top 3 players at their positions (Webber, Ben Wallace), and probably a couple of more that were considered top 3-5 at one point or another  (Billups, Divac, Peja, etc.).

So ya, if Ainge could just put together a team of 4-5 guys that will go to be All-Stars, built around 1 lesser superstar, then I'm all for it, but let's not act like it's that easy. Conley, Affalo, Green, Milsap, and Asik sure aren't going to get it done.

Agree completely. Those SAC teams were stacked.

[bdm860]

Just to pile on more about Webber, he was the #1 pick!  And he was twice traded for a future All-Star and 3 future lottery picks!

It took Anfernee Hardaway (the #3 pick that year) + 1st round pick in 1996 (#11) + 1st round pick in 1998 (#5) + 1st round pick in 2000 (#5) for Golden State to get him.

Then it took Tom Gugliotta (#6 pick one year earlier) + 1st round pick in 1996 (#11) + 1st round pick in 1998 (#5) + 1st round pick in 2000 (#7) for Washington to get him.

(Strangely Washington had acquired 2 of the picks GS originally sent out for Webber, and traded them back to GS).

I mean not only was Webber a superstar, but he was also the #1 pick, and teams twice traded away the farm (basically 4 lottery picks) to get him.  That's not unconventional, that's exactly what most other teams are trying to do.

[Moranis]

Chris Webber was a certified superstar on those teams.  25/10/5...those are MVP numbers...Bibby wasn't too shabby either.  The Piston are a better example but even them, Billups was a All-Star and at the top of his game during that period too...

um, Chauncey Billups was not an all star on either Pistons team that made the finals.  Ben Wallace was the only all star on those two teams.  Rasheed, Chauncey, and Rip all became all stars for the decline of those teams, not their peak.   Chauncey, despite winning Finals MVP, was in fact the 4th best player on the title team throughout the season (well at least post Sheed trade).   Chauncey had an excellent finals, but he was actually pretty bad for much of that post-season as well.  That is what made that team so good and that said they were in fact pretty lucky to run into a very injured and dysfunctional Lakers team and they barely got by the Nets in the second round.

Billups regular season - 17/6/3 88% from the line and 39% from 3...Playoffs - 16/6/3 and the percentages are all about the same.  I highly doubt there were 4 players better than him on that team.  Chauncey Billups was a very good player on that team as was Wallace.  The model constructed above, those two guys would be better than anyone listed.

You can doubt it all you want, but Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, and Ben Wallace were all better than him, making him the 4th best player on that team.  By the end of their run Billups was likely the best player on their team, but he wasn't when they won the title.

And I'm sorry when you shoot less than 40% from 2 point range (which he was that season and he bumped it up to a whopping 40.6% in the playoffs, though dropped his 3 point % down nearly 4 percentage points), I have hard time spouting your efficiency.  Chauncey shot lights out in the finals, which is why he was given the Finals MVP despite the fact that Rip was once again their leading scorer and only 1.2 assists behind Chauncey, all while out rebounding him and playing better defense.  If I was voting for Finals MVP, I would have had Big Ben 1, Rip 2, and Chauncey 3, though Sheed was a better player for them throughout the season and playoffs given his vastly superior defense to Chauncey (who was a pretty bad defender still at that point in his career).

People remember the player Chauncey became and not the player he actually was for that title winning team. 

[CFAN38]

Just to pile on more about Webber, he was the #1 pick!  And he was twice traded for a future All-Star and 3 future lottery picks!

It took Anfernee Hardaway (the #3 pick that year) + 1st round pick in 1996 (#11) + 1st round pick in 1998 (#5) + 1st round pick in 2000 (#5) for Golden State to get him.

Then it took Tom Gugliotta (#6 pick one year earlier) + 1st round pick in 1996 (#11) + 1st round pick in 1998 (#5) + 1st round pick in 2000 (#7) for Washington to get him.

(Strangely Washington had acquired 2 of the picks GS originally sent out for Webber, and traded them back to GS).

I mean not only was Webber a superstar, but he was also the #1 pick, and teams twice traded away the farm (basically 4 lottery picks) to get him.  That's not unconventional, that's exactly what most other teams are trying to do.

I think DA's point is being lost a bit. Granted he might be looking back and undervaluing Webber but his point is great teams can be built without allstar team rosters. Webber was elite but after that who else on that roster is a consistent multiple time allstar level player? Also that year webber finished 7th in MVP voting, Bibby was tied for 16th and bobby jackson was 6th man of the year. (turkoglu came in 7th in that vote) .

[Kane3387]

Isn't thus basically what the Denver nuggets have been trying to do since they moved melo?

[Boris Badenov]

Chris Webber was averaging 24.5ppg,, 10.1rpg, 4.8apg, 1.7spg, and 1.4bpg in ‘02, and was 1st or 2nd team All-NBA for 3 straight years, if that’s not considered a superstar I don’t know what it is.

Plus he had 2 other All-Stars on the team in Vlade Divac and Peja Stojakovic.

Detroit had the best defensive player in the last 15 years, and also had 4 others guys who would go on to become All-Stars (Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Mehmet Okur).

Both teams had guys that were top 3 players at their positions (Webber, Ben Wallace), and probably a couple of more that were considered top 3-5 at one point or another  (Billups, Divac, Peja, etc.).

So ya, if Ainge could just put together a team of 4-5 guys that will go to be All-Stars, built around 1 lesser superstar, then I'm all for it, but let's not act like it's that easy. Conley, Affalo, Green, Milsap, and Asik sure aren't going to get it done.

Agree completely. Those SAC teams were stacked.

Just to follow up I thought I'd try to assemble a team from today's players that matches that SAC team at its peak, in terms of overall talent.

At PG, I actually do think Conley is a decent match. Bibby was perhaps better offensively but he was a weak defender.

At SG, I would say that Afflalo is not bad. Christie was an elite "3 and D" guy before the term existed. I'd say that Afflalo is better offensively but Christie was a more disruptive player on D - he was spectacular there for a couple of years (and made 4 straight All-Defense teams).

In the frontcourt is where the problems come. At his peak Peja scored 24ppg and was the best outside shooter in the league, bar none, and finished 4th in MVP voting. I can't find a comparable player now. I'd say that KD, Lebron and George are better now than Peja, but that Peja is not too far from Carmelo in terms of impact (though they are very different players). Peja's clearly better than any SF other than those guys right now. I'll stick with Carmelo (since the modern team will be giving something up at PF, see below).

Webber was phenomenal. Webber finished in the top 10 for MVP voting 5 straight times and made 5 straight All-NBA teams. His peak averages were around 23/10/4/1.5/1.5. I can't think of another comp so I'll use Love - style aside the only others on Web's level today would probably be Aldridge and Nowitzki, and Davis if he's a PF.

At C things are tough because Vlade was so unique - maybe the best passing center ever as well as a 12/10 guy pretty consistently. He was on the downswing to be sure. I'll pick Bogut as a comp, even though they're not exact comps, but I think they might rank similarly.

The frontcourt overall is difficult to match but I think Carmelo/Love/Bogut is roughly the equal of Webber/Peja/Vlade at their peak.

So, this would mean that we could put together an analogue of the SAC team like this:

Conley (or Rondo if we keep him)
Afflalo
Carmelo
Love
Bogut

I think this highlights the talent needed pretty well. This team would contend, but I don't see them as prohibitive favorites.

The big point is, like others have said...you're not getting it done with some of the lesser players being discussed as possible targets. We need at least one MVP-caliber guy and another All-Star or two, along with 2-3 other guys who are either borderline All-Stars or elite defenders...and remember that SAC team didn't even win, they just contended.