2013-14 trade deadline moves:
Trade Jeff Green to ATL for Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll, and 2015/2017 BKN second round picks: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=pone5d4
No, just no. this is trading Jeff Green just for the sake of trading Jeff Green. no. this is a crappy deal. we can and should do better than Jeff Green. not against trading Green, but we have to actually get something back for him that's of value.
Trade Brandon Bass, Kris Humphries and the 2014/15 PHI first rounder/2016+ PHI second rounders for Emeka Okafor and Miles Plumlee: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=kg2mjq3
Not liking the unloading of the Philly picks. I think they make the playoffs next year (barely) so we get a mid-1st rounder in what's expected to be a decent draft. We're helping Phx out with 2 good forwards off the bench (Hump can play some C for them as well). Both are better than Plumlee and Hump is an expiring deal which essentially makes Okafor's expiring deal irrelevant. Not only keep the pick but make Phx send us one of theirs. worst 1st rounder they have and I'd probably be fine with this-->not sold on Plumlee becoming as good as either Bass or Hump but at least he's not a stiff and he's big.
This gets us worse immediately. We conclude the season with the league's fourth worst record (a conservative estimate, IMO, especially if Bradley's injuries persist). Let's be conservative again and assume that we a) get the fourth pick and not a higher one and b) we need the second pick to select Andrew Wiggins.
We'd be definitely worse but the teams below us still suck more than we do. We'd probably sink no lower than 5th so we've given away 3 of our best trade assets for crap and have to hope to luck into a lucky draw in the lottery. That's just really bad planning.
2014 NBA Draft moves:
Trade 2014 fourth pick, 2014 18th pick (what we're owed by Brooklyn as of right now) and 2015/2017 BKN second rounders (from ATL) for the 2014 second pick (as you can guess by the theme, a very conservative trade proposal by my estimations).
Select Andrew Wiggins, sign for 3 yrs (he can opt out after)/$13 million (roughly).
As mentioned above, we'd most likely pick 5th provided someone with a better record doesn't leapfrog us into the top 3.
If we have the fifth pick after clearing out the vets with talent, I would anticipate Danny trading the pick. No team lucky enough to get a top 3 (or possibly 4) pick is trading it. any thoughts of someone handing over Embiid, Parker or Wiggins for a chance to draft in the second tier of players and some lesser talent isn't happening. I love Rondo but I don't think we could trade him and the 5th pick to crack the top 3 based on the expectations of those 3 players.
2014 Summer Off-Season moves:
Allow Elton Brand ($4 million), Emeka Okafor ($14,487,500) and Avery Bradley ($2,511,432) to expire. Waive Keith Bogans ($5,058,198). This would put our salary hold at $39,211,014 with a $62,100,000 salary cap for next year, giving us $22,888,986 to work with.
Keep Vitor Faverani and Phil Pressey. Bring over Colton Iverson (who will be payed roughly $820,000).
Re-sign Jerryd Bayless for 2 yrs/$6,270,000 (conservative total dollar amount).
Sign Lance Stephenson to 4yrs/$48 million (roughly, and conservative as well in total dollar amount -- remember Rondo only got an average of $11 million!).
Sign Thabo Sefolosha to 3 yrs/$10.5 million (roughly, and conservative in both years extended and total dollar amount).
This leaves us with a roughly $59.6 million dollar salary hold in 2015, giving us a couple million to work throughout the season.
I get the concept of clearing expiring deals in the hopes of landing FA's. Looking at what you're suggesting:
- AB, if continually injured, will be lucky to command MLE this offseason. he's a good change-of-pace pressure defender to bring off the bench that could wreak havoc on an opposing backup PG. I think Danny keeps him if it's $6 mill or less per year. He's not starter-quality and I wouldn't pay him starter money.
- Vitor and Pressey are here next year. continue to develop them.
- Bayless hasn't shown he's worth keeping, certainly not more than vet min. I wouldn't bother to resign him. I'm hoping that by camp, Pressey has developed into a solid backup behind Rondo.
- Stephenson, nice player but not at $12 mill per year. waaaaay overpaying. If he gets that much from someone, congratulate him and send him on his way. Offer $9 mill a year (Green money) and if he takes it fine. I think it's far more likely he stays in Indy to play for a top team.
-Thabo? no thanks. decent player but I think we can do better for that money. he's not a great shooter. good defender but I'd take a hard look at CJ after a training camp and see what he brings to the table. He's not Thabo on D but he's already better on O.
2014-15 roster
Rondo/Bayless/Pressey
Stephenson/Sefolosha/[Bayless]
Wiggins/Wallace/Carroll
Sullinger/Olynyk/[Plumlee]
Plumlee/Faverani/Iverson/Anthony
As mentioned before, no chance in hell of getting Wiggins without drawing a top 3 pick in the draft.
Concerns: Shooting. My counterargument to that point: Rondo looks to have improved his shot and Stephenson has done the same. Wiggins looks to have, at worst, a steady shot; he's shooting at a decent clip both from two and from three. Two reasons to be optimistic about his efficiency: a) he's recently become more aggressive and generally that leads to lesser efficiency. This should improve as he becomes comfortable with his role as alpha dog; b) he's very young. Generally young stars improve in the areas they're expected to excel in.
offense in general would be a concern as would your Center rotation. not a proven one in the bunch.
also a very young team that would need years to develop. never a guarantee that happens or that the players stick around once they do. case in point, you're assuming you can land Stephenson now that he's developed for Indy. that reasoning would lead to the belief that someone would sign one of our building blocks from us.
2015 cap flexibility. The Celts are apparently very intrigued with the 2015 free agent class. Of course, this would all change if we were able to put together the team I've constructed above, but for some this still may be a concern. We'd still head into that offseason with, I think, at least five million, but I could be wrong. We wouldn't have a lot of space to sign non-Celtic free agents but we'd have enough to sign Rondo to a max contract and still be below the luxury tax line.
Cap flexibility will be even better in 2015 without making these deals. Only player that would be here under contract if we negated your deals is Green and he'd be an expiring going into 2016. So would Wallace. both become much more tradable and we have a pretty good cap situation heading into that offseason to look at FA's if Danny chooses.
Final comments: At least in my opinion, all of my proposals were done conservatively (if you didn't get that already). Getting the second pick and selecting Wiggins is very much in the realm of possibility. Getting the third pick and selecting Wiggins is even more so in the realm of possibility. We could end up not having to give Stephenson a $12 mil per year average. And on, and on, and on. Still, my conservative plan works by my calculations, though I could be wrong, with enough room to lock up Rondo in 2015.
IMHO, what you consider conservative isn't always the case. your trade scenarios and FA signings fit what you want to build as a team. that's fine, but I think you swing from conservative (Green trade and Bass trade are too conservative) to too optimistic (trading for the second pick in the draft) to not sensible financially (Stephenson signing, Bayless signing).
kudos for having the cajones to put your opinions out there for debate. if you want to pick mine apart, they're back in the original thread.
Respectable counterarguments, I'll briefly address a few that I think could change your mind.
One thing you got me on was Chris Johnson/Thabo. I honestly completely forgot about CJ and was looking for a cheap shooting guard to put behind Stephenson. I agree that CJ might not only be better by next year, but he's also obviously much cheaper.
As for Jeff: All Celtics fans -- and I'm sure a number of Celtics executives, judging by Mannix's comments -- overrate Jeff Green. From my perspective, he's overpaid and overextended. You're asking the Hawks to give you one of their best expiring deals and one of their cheaper players for a bloated contract. Jeff Green is better than either of Brand or Carroll, but he's not as fairly paid. That matters a lot more to a team like the Hawks vs a team that's a piece away, because Jeff Green is not going to win the Hawks a championship. He gets them a little better, but he severely restricts whatever cap flexibility they have now to sign a guy that
would win them a championship. I think it's very fair that they only give us the two second rounders, which aren't bad as a consolation prize.
I disagree that we wouldn't be able to slide to the fourth worst record. As I mentioned, I believe this is even more probable if Bradley continues to battle the injury bug as well. When I posted this we had the fifth best chances according to ESPN's mock lottery. The team immediately ahead of us was SAC. If we get worse and they presumably get better (as their pieces gel), I don't think it's all that ridiculous to suggest that we could at least leapfrog them. You may be right that if the lottery balls lock us into the fourth pick, it'd be fruitless to explore trade possibilities with teams holding a top three pick, but I disagree about where we'll end up at the end of the year if we were to make these deals.
Most likely I overpaid Bayless but I very much disagree that he's a vet min player. He is a competent combo guard with a good shot and a good head on his shoulders. He'll also have been with the team heading into the Summer, something no other shooting guard on the market can say besides Bradley.
On Bradley: I'd be willing to keep Bradley if our team was at a different point on the rebuilding map (on the verge of contention), but unfortunately we're not. We're at the point where we need vast upgrades at three positions. There's a reason Avery Bradley is worth $6 million to you. His history of injuries may be good for those who want to re-sign him (he's cheaper), but it's not promising for those who are trying to justify him as our starting SG of the future. Do we want a main piece who is always injured? There are other questions with Bradley but that's one issue you raised that I had objections to.
On Stephenson: Stephenson's contract of course depends on your interpretation of his talent. I think he's a future All-Star, and a future All-Star is worth $12 million a year. It appears that you do not, which explains your opposing view point. But I really disagree that he couldn't play next to Rondo. He's as good if not better as Avery is beyond the arc, and he's a far better finisher (how often do we get frustrated with Avery for not finishing on cuts?;
http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1237-Lance-Stephenson/season/2013-2014-REG?ui=zone14 vs.
http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1216-Avery-Bradley/season/2013-2014-REG?ui=zone14). In my eyes, he's an ideal partner for Rondo. Again, your unique interpretation of the partnership is why you have gripes with my contract proposal.
Here's my biggest difference with you, and that's on the PHX deal. I just flat out disagree with you that Bass and Humphries are better players than Plumlee. First of all, as a GM, you have to evaluate guys as assets, not as players based on their current season. Plumlee is a) younger; b) has more potential; c) already has great production; and d) plays a position of greater need. Plumlee is putting up better numbers (slightly less points, more rebounds, greater efficiency) in the same minutes as Bass and better numbers in more minutes than Humphries. He's 25 with an extremely friendly contract. To me, he's a younger, cheaper version of Asik. He's a bit thinner and about an inch shorter, but he's more mobile. I'd love to lock him up as our center of the future. I agree that our other centers are unproven, but Plumlee is far from it. We can't have an All-Star team as soon as next year, either; some of this has to be realistic! That's why one of the positions had to give a little, and that was at C (which is currently our weakest position).
On the deal overall, I completely disagree with you on the value to PHX. You're asking them to swallow a handful of millions (around four, I believe) this season, and you're also asking them to pay an extra $5 million (roughly) next year than if they were to just keep Plumlee. Bass is not worth a first, not in this world, yet they're giving you the equivalent of one in Plumlee, who is one of their best young players. Humphries' value as an expiring is cancelled by Okafor's expiring, so there's really no reason for them to swap Bass and Plumlee unless you give them a first rounder (keep in mind that, IMO, this is our weakest 1st rounder out of our five year collection). Of course, I can't forget to mention that you're helping them win now, but it's not going to get them a championship. If they're not getting a pick, is a few extra wins and slightly better playoff odds worth relinquishing Plumlee for a bad contract?
Topic: My dream Celtics roster for 2014-15 (Read 8672 times)