Tommy on Olynyk

[guava_wrench]

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Perhaps. However, 7-footers who move like they're stuck in molasses and get pushed around like rag dolls typically don't last long in the NBA.

Also, Olynyk may be measuring at 7 feet, but his small wingspan and complete lack of leaping ability make him play smaller than his size. And so far it has looked that his small hands will cause serious issues with finishing around the rim.

There is no sense arguing with the stat geeks. They have stats for everything and stats rule the world today. I honestly do not know why teams bother playing the games anymore. Just plug all of the nifty stats in the computer for each game and see who wins.... 

Than ignore his standing reach. Instead, watch actual games where, as we have already seen, guards can snatch rebounds over his head from behind. That is pretty sad.

The truth is the standing reach isn't the end of the discussion. It is an explanation of problems he has.

And you consider being slow a now that you would rather ignore? Without agreeing with the previous poster, I can see that he mentions physical traits. He is not throwing out advanced stats.

It is important to remember that neither skills nor physical traits are enough to be good in the NBA. You need a combination of both. If you only have one, you likely end up a marginal player. Also, height is clearly misleading as someone with a long neck and big head ends up with extra height that really doesn't help on the court.

[guava_wrench]

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Perhaps. However, 7-footers who move like they're stuck in molasses and get pushed around like rag dolls typically don't last long in the NBA.

Also, Olynyk may be measuring at 7 feet, but his small wingspan and complete lack of leaping ability make him play smaller than his size. And so far it has looked that his small hands will cause serious issues with finishing around the rim.

There is no sense arguing with the stat geeks. They have stats for everything and stats rule the world today. I honestly do not know why teams bother playing the games anymore. Just plug all of the nifty stats in the computer for each game and see who wins.... 

I'm a stat geek, and I love to argue with myself.

I would say the only people you can argue with are stat geeks. How can you argue with people who feel that their gut feelings shouldn't be bothered with data?

[mmmmm]

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Perhaps. However, 7-footers who move like they're stuck in molasses and get pushed around like rag dolls typically don't last long in the NBA.

Also, Olynyk may be measuring at 7 feet, but his small wingspan and complete lack of leaping ability make him play smaller than his size. And so far it has looked that his small hands will cause serious issues with finishing around the rim.

There is no sense arguing with the stat geeks. They have stats for everything and stats rule the world today. I honestly do not know why teams bother playing the games anymore. Just plug all of the nifty stats in the computer for each game and see who wins.... 

I'm a stat geek, and I love to argue with myself.

I would say the only people you can argue with are stat geeks. How can you argue with people who feel that their gut feelings shouldn't be bothered with data?

Data... is just so, so darn inconvenient!

[vinnie]

As I said, the stat geeks take all the fun out of the game. Let's make all pro leagues fantasy leagues. That way, no one will get hurt.

[PhoSita]

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Perhaps. However, 7-footers who move like they're stuck in molasses and get pushed around like rag dolls typically don't last long in the NBA.

Fab Melo, Joel Anthony, Kendrick Perkins -- these are bigs who move like they're stuck in molasses.

KO is no Thaddeus Young, but he certainly isn't deserving of your description of his mobility.

There is no sense arguing with the stat geeks. They have stats for everything and stats rule the world today. I honestly do not know why teams bother playing the games anymore. Just plug all of the nifty stats in the computer for each game and see who wins.... 

Stats are problematic if they are regarded as the beginning, middle, and end of the discussion of a player's value.

However, stats are very useful for identifying viewer bias when they're held up to subjective impressions of a player. 

In some cases, it confirms that a player is not actually making that large of an impact despite some highlight plays or games that stand out (Green). 

In other cases, the stats demonstrate that a player is making more of a consistent positive impact than many are willing to credit him with (Olynyk).

[Boris Badenov]

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

Nah.  #22 picks aren't exactly blooming into all-stars.   Some 65% of picks at that spot turn out to be nothing more than 'deep bench' players.

Here is a nifty study:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Even a fair share of picks much higher have turned out to be out-right busts and some never even played in the NBA.

I agree with you about the overall odds of a 22 pick panning out (I've seen the 82games data), but I'll stand by my original statement. If you look at the detailed performance numbers, Melo is just at the absolute bottom.

I posted on this a few days back, here it is again (I was talking about both Melo and Giddens, and how bad they actually ended up being):

Melo is out of the league after playing a total of 36 minutes of NBA ball. Giddens played a total of 247 minutes.

In the last ten drafts leading up to 2012, setting aside a few guys who never played due to injury, and a couple of guys who stayed in Europe, 5 players (out of 300 total) taken in the top 30 have played fewer than 247 minutes in their careers (Craig Brackins, Julius Hodge, Ndubi Ebi, Troy Bell and the immortal Pavel Podkolzin).

Exactly ONE has played fewer than Fab's 36 minutes - Pavel.

(JJJ is pretty close to making the list, with 289 - another "ouch.")

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

[Fred Roberts]

Digging Kelly's stat line from tonight. Effective and efficient. Let's build on this KO!

[jambr380]

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

Nah.  #22 picks aren't exactly blooming into all-stars.   Some 65% of picks at that spot turn out to be nothing more than 'deep bench' players.

Here is a nifty study:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Even a fair share of picks much higher have turned out to be out-right busts and some never even played in the NBA.

I agree with you about the overall odds of a 22 pick panning out (I've seen the 82games data), but I'll stand by my original statement. If you look at the detailed performance numbers, Melo is just at the absolute bottom.

I posted on this a few days back, here it is again (I was talking about both Melo and Giddens, and how bad they actually ended up being):

Melo is out of the league after playing a total of 36 minutes of NBA ball. Giddens played a total of 247 minutes.

In the last ten drafts leading up to 2012, setting aside a few guys who never played due to injury, and a couple of guys who stayed in Europe, 5 players (out of 300 total) taken in the top 30 have played fewer than 247 minutes in their careers (Craig Brackins, Julius Hodge, Ndubi Ebi, Troy Bell and the immortal Pavel Podkolzin).

Exactly ONE has played fewer than Fab's 36 minutes - Pavel.

(JJJ is pretty close to making the list, with 289 - another "ouch.")

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

Interesting stat. I definitely think you should be focusing more on JJJ, as well. Three of the worst sounds much better than two of the worst.

I guess when Danny misses, he totally crashes and burns; however, when he hits, he does an excellent job in relation to draft slot (this point is exemplified in the Sully/Fab draft). I [personally] will take this draft record.

What's funny is that Olynyk pretty much went exactly where he should have and probably won't move too far up or down that list as his career progresses. While he has the ability to improve, he was a pretty known quantity when he was drafted - a rich man's Scalabrine, if you will.

[mmmmm]

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

Nah.  #22 picks aren't exactly blooming into all-stars.   Some 65% of picks at that spot turn out to be nothing more than 'deep bench' players.

Here is a nifty study:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Even a fair share of picks much higher have turned out to be out-right busts and some never even played in the NBA.

I agree with you about the overall odds of a 22 pick panning out (I've seen the 82games data), but I'll stand by my original statement. If you look at the detailed performance numbers, Melo is just at the absolute bottom.

I posted on this a few days back, here it is again (I was talking about both Melo and Giddens, and how bad they actually ended up being):

Melo is out of the league after playing a total of 36 minutes of NBA ball. Giddens played a total of 247 minutes.

In the last ten drafts leading up to 2012, setting aside a few guys who never played due to injury, and a couple of guys who stayed in Europe, 5 players (out of 300 total) taken in the top 30 have played fewer than 247 minutes in their careers (Craig Brackins, Julius Hodge, Ndubi Ebi, Troy Bell and the immortal Pavel Podkolzin).

Exactly ONE has played fewer than Fab's 36 minutes - Pavel.

(JJJ is pretty close to making the list, with 289 - another "ouch.")

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

Well I'm certainly not here to argue that Fab wasn't a bust.  I just think most folks don't realize that his outcome wasn't at all atypical for where he was drafted.  And the fact is, there wasn't a lot after him in that draft that Danny missed out on.

The 'minutes played' metric is a bit dubious to use on the low end.  A player having the 'misfortune' to be drafted onto a playoff contending team is going to have a much harder time getting floor time than an equally (un)talented player getting drafted onto a crap team.

(Ex. - Marshon Brooks getting a ton of minutes his rookie year on a crappy Nets team)

[jambr380]

Digging Kelly's stat line from tonight. Effective and efficient. Let's build on this KO!

Yeah, loving the double double. He has certainly picked it up as of late. Too bad we got such stinkers from Sully and Green.

[Celtics18]

Last four games:

11.5 PPG              16.6 PPG Per36

9.0 RPG                13.0 RPG Per36

2.5  APG                3.6  APG Per36

.500  FG%

25.0   MPG


Nice. 

[D.o.s.]

Lots of good posts on this page.

I'm still not on board.

[Boris Badenov]

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

Nah.  #22 picks aren't exactly blooming into all-stars.   Some 65% of picks at that spot turn out to be nothing more than 'deep bench' players.

Here is a nifty study:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Even a fair share of picks much higher have turned out to be out-right busts and some never even played in the NBA.

I agree with you about the overall odds of a 22 pick panning out (I've seen the 82games data), but I'll stand by my original statement. If you look at the detailed performance numbers, Melo is just at the absolute bottom.

I posted on this a few days back, here it is again (I was talking about both Melo and Giddens, and how bad they actually ended up being):

Melo is out of the league after playing a total of 36 minutes of NBA ball. Giddens played a total of 247 minutes.

In the last ten drafts leading up to 2012, setting aside a few guys who never played due to injury, and a couple of guys who stayed in Europe, 5 players (out of 300 total) taken in the top 30 have played fewer than 247 minutes in their careers (Craig Brackins, Julius Hodge, Ndubi Ebi, Troy Bell and the immortal Pavel Podkolzin).

Exactly ONE has played fewer than Fab's 36 minutes - Pavel.

(JJJ is pretty close to making the list, with 289 - another "ouch.")

There are other metrics of course but I think by any standard Melo and Giddens are two of the worst 5-10 picks (out of 300) in the last decade of the first round. Melo has a strong case for being the worst, along with Podkolzin.

You can go take a look here.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html
 

Well I'm certainly not here to argue that Fab wasn't a bust.  I just think most folks don't realize that his outcome wasn't at all atypical for where he was drafted.  And the fact is, there wasn't a lot after him in that draft that Danny missed out on.

The 'minutes played' metric is a bit dubious to use on the low end.  A player having the 'misfortune' to be drafted onto a playoff contending team is going to have a much harder time getting floor time than an equally (un)talented player getting drafted onto a crap team.

(Ex. - Marshon Brooks getting a ton of minutes his rookie year on a crappy Nets team)

I think we're on the same page, I was just shocked to find out just how bad Fab looks even relative to the modest expectations for a 22 pick.

Minutes are not perfect - but of course we don't have that pesky "contending" problem any more, and we still jettisoned him knowing full well we could give minutes to developing young guys this year.

I think the more [dang]ing thing to be honest is when a player is waived before his rookie contract is up. That happened with Fab, with Pavel...and maybe one or two others, I don't know how to look that up.

Interesting though as I look at the list for the last 10 years, a fair number of 22 picks have ended up as decent players:

2013    Mason Plumlee   
2012    Fab Melo
2011    Kenneth Faried
2010  Elliot Williams
2009  Victor Claver
2008  Courtney Lee
2007    Jared Dudley
2006  Marcus Williams
2005    Jarrett Jack
2004    Viktor Khryapa

Anyway let's hope that KO and most of these 10 first round picks over the next five years end up on the other tail of the distribution.

[D.o.s.]

Speaking of Fab Melo, Ainge never sent me the check for that trade exception.

 

[nickagneta]

Nice couple offensive nights forthe rookie but his defense is abysmal. And its not abysmal fromplaying against the most talented guy on the other team either.

And by that I mean, has any of the Olynyk supporters out there noticed who Stevens puts Olynyk on every single time he is on the court? He puts himon the worst of the three frontcourt players regardless of whether that player is a SF, PF, or C.

Olynyk is the tallest player on the team and Stevens wouldn't let him anywhere near Duncan even when it was clear that Bass, Sully, Humphries and Anthony couldn't guard him. At one point tonight Duncan got so hot Stevens brought out Anthony after Duncan had crippled him Sully and Bass and what who did KO run over to guard, Diaw.

Stevens does this every game. He purposely puts Olynyk on the worst offensive forward the opposition has on the floor at any given time and even then, those players are lighting him up.

You can only hide defensive deficiencies in a big man so long before he starts killing your team defense.