Tommy on Olynyk

[D.o.s.]

Personally, I don't understand the negative view of Olynyk's game.  He's actually having a pretty decent rookie season.  Would I like to see his FG% and 3pt% go up, no doubt, but he's played pretty well for a rookie.  In fact, he's rebounded a lot better (9 per 36 minutes) than we all thought he would.

We need to remind ourselves that he's not a traditional big man, and that his game is more like a poor man's Keith Van Horn right now.  Van Horn shot .426 percent from the field in his rookie season and only .308 from deep. Olynyk's shooting #'s are pretty identical, and Kelly plays roughly half the time Van Horn did.  Having said all of that, can we give the kid at least three years before we make any judgments about him?  A lot of us were very quick to give up on Avery early on, but he's proved most of us to be wrong.

So you basically want to see if he sticks around for another NBA contract?

[Boris Badenov]

Personally, I don't understand the negative view of Olynyk's game.  He's actually having a pretty decent rookie season.  Would I like to see his FG% and 3pt% go up, no doubt, but he's played pretty well for a rookie.  In fact, he's rebounded a lot better (9 per 36 minutes) than we all thought he would.

We need to remind ourselves that he's not a traditional big man, and that his game is more like a poor man's Keith Van Horn right now.  Van Horn shot .426 percent from the field in his rookie season and only .308 from deep. Olynyk's shooting #'s are pretty identical, and Kelly plays roughly half the time Van Horn did.  Having said all of that, can we give the kid at least three years before we make any judgments about him?  A lot of us were very quick to give up on Avery early on, but he's proved most of us to be wrong.

I think you've nailed the Olynyk assessment given his initial expectations. His rebounding is really the big positive surprise. The shooting and defensive struggles were to be expected.

I would shy away from the Van Horn and AB comparisons though:
1. Van Horn played 38mpg and averaged 20ppg his rookie year. Olynyk has given no indication that he's capable of that kind of sustained play at the NBA level.
2. AB was an untested 20 yr old as a rookie. Olynyk is a 22 yr old who took a year off to work on improving his physical capabilities.

Personally I think KO has a great shot at being a solid NBA role player. He does a lot of little things that could keep him in the league, and if you put him in a good environment, he might even become a valuable contributor on a good team.

It seems to me that he has to be in a situation where his offensive capabilities are maximized and his defensive limitations are covered - honestly I don't think he's ever going to be a quality NBA-level defender given his current performance, age and physical tools. But other players have has successful careers in the same circumstances.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Personally, I don't understand the negative view of Olynyk's game.  He's actually having a pretty decent rookie season.  Would I like to see his FG% and 3pt% go up, no doubt, but he's played pretty well for a rookie.  In fact, he's rebounded a lot better (9 per 36 minutes) than we all thought he would.

We need to remind ourselves that he's not a traditional big man, and that his game is more like a poor man's Keith Van Horn right now.  Van Horn shot .426 percent from the field in his rookie season and only .308 from deep. Olynyk's shooting #'s are pretty identical, and Kelly plays roughly half the time Van Horn did.  Having said all of that, can we give the kid at least three years before we make any judgments about him?  A lot of us were very quick to give up on Avery early on, but he's proved most of us to be wrong.

I think you've nailed the Olynyk assessment given his initial expectations. His rebounding is really the big positive surprise. The shooting and defensive struggles were to be expected.

I would shy away from the Van Horn and AB comparisons though:
1. Van Horn played 38mpg and averaged 20ppg his rookie year. Olynyk has given no indication that he's capable of that kind of sustained play at the NBA level.
2. AB was an untested 20 yr old as a rookie. Olynyk is a 22 yr old who took a year off to work on improving his physical capabilities.

Personally I think KO has a great shot at being a solid NBA role player. He does a lot of little things that could keep him in the league, and if you put him in a good environment, he might even become a valuable contributor on a good team.

It seems to me that he has to be in a situation where his offensive capabilities are maximized and his defensive limitations are covered - honestly I don't think he's ever going to be a quality NBA-level defender given his current performance, age and physical tools. But other players have has successful careers in the same circumstances.

He knows how to play D. At least he isn't lost like Fab Melo on D, just needs to be a little quicker and stronger.

Around a third of his rebounding is o-REBs from hustling and being 7 foot tall. But I haven't seen him get killed on the boards either.

[Boris Badenov]

Personally, I don't understand the negative view of Olynyk's game.  He's actually having a pretty decent rookie season.  Would I like to see his FG% and 3pt% go up, no doubt, but he's played pretty well for a rookie.  In fact, he's rebounded a lot better (9 per 36 minutes) than we all thought he would.

We need to remind ourselves that he's not a traditional big man, and that his game is more like a poor man's Keith Van Horn right now.  Van Horn shot .426 percent from the field in his rookie season and only .308 from deep. Olynyk's shooting #'s are pretty identical, and Kelly plays roughly half the time Van Horn did.  Having said all of that, can we give the kid at least three years before we make any judgments about him?  A lot of us were very quick to give up on Avery early on, but he's proved most of us to be wrong.

I think you've nailed the Olynyk assessment given his initial expectations. His rebounding is really the big positive surprise. The shooting and defensive struggles were to be expected.

I would shy away from the Van Horn and AB comparisons though:
1. Van Horn played 38mpg and averaged 20ppg his rookie year. Olynyk has given no indication that he's capable of that kind of sustained play at the NBA level.
2. AB was an untested 20 yr old as a rookie. Olynyk is a 22 yr old who took a year off to work on improving his physical capabilities.

Personally I think KO has a great shot at being a solid NBA role player. He does a lot of little things that could keep him in the league, and if you put him in a good environment, he might even become a valuable contributor on a good team.

It seems to me that he has to be in a situation where his offensive capabilities are maximized and his defensive limitations are covered - honestly I don't think he's ever going to be a quality NBA-level defender given his current performance, age and physical tools. But other players have has successful careers in the same circumstances.

He knows how to play D. At least he isn't lost like Fab Melo on D, just needs to be a little quicker and stronger.

Around a third of his rebounding is o-REBs from hustling and being 7 foot tall. But I haven't seen him get killed on the boards either.

I agree that he knows how to play D. I question whether he has the tools to do it.

Pick your metric, he's getting slaughtered on D so far this year. Maybe he'll improve, but until he does that, I don't think he is a legit NBA rotation player - on a good team, anyway.

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Surprised this thread is still going, even though it became more focused on the logistics of stats than Olynyk.

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude. As D.o.s pointed out, Ainge has drafted terribly in recent years (minus Sully). I called the two Purdue boys scrubs the second they were drafted. Guess what? Scrubs. Same with Fab - that's not even worth discussing, in my book.

And as Koz mentioned, we've no reason whatsoever to give KO extended mins. We're a losing team this year, can't argue with that... but homers seem to fail to realize what is NBA caliber talent/athleticism and what isn't. I'd argue that pre-Rondo's return, Bass was the best on the roster at creating his own shot and Hump was as/more paramount to our success than anyone else on the roster(both of whom someone mentioned should both be sat for KO's development). They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago. I don't have numbers for that. I'm sure you can google it; I don't know what will come up, maybe sites and stats will differ. But honestly, it's just an eye test. Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

[pokeKingCurtis]

I agree that he knows how to play D. I question whether he has the tools to do it.

Pick your metric, he's getting slaughtered on D so far this year. Maybe he'll improve, but until he does that, I don't think he is a legit NBA rotation player - on a good team, anyway.

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

I'm aware he's been pretty bad on paper.

Watching him play on D, though, makes me think if his deficiencies are further highlighted by the lackadaisical roster right now. His rotations could be tighter at times but he's there.

I've seen a few solid defensive plays from him, and quite a few of those are by virtue of his 7 footedness. I think being 7 foot with smarts and hustle helps a lot even though he's not the most talented one out there. But at the very least there won't be a double whammy of not knowing how and being incapable of playing D.

I've been saying, a lineup of SullyNyk and a defensive center could be a heck of a rotation. Even a limited defensive center.



He's looked a lot more comfortable since his return from injury, with offensive outbursts on several occasions. I'd love to see his stats on the defensive end since his return.

Surprised this thread is still going, even though it became more focused on the logistics of stats than Olynyk.

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude. As D.o.s pointed out, Ainge has drafted terribly in recent years (minus Sully). I called the two Purdue boys scrubs the second they were drafted. Guess what? Scrubs. Same with Fab - that's not even worth discussing, in my book.

And as Koz mentioned, we've no reason whatsoever to give KO extended mins. We're a losing team this year, can't argue with that... but homers seem to fail to realize what is NBA caliber talent/athleticism and what isn't. I'd argue that pre-Rondo's return, Bass was the best on the roster at creating his own shot and Hump was as/more paramount to our success than anyone else on the roster(both of whom someone mentioned should both be sat for KO's development). They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago. I don't have numbers for that. I'm sure you can google it; I don't know what will come up, maybe sites and stats will differ. But honestly, it's just an eye test. Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

The busts really stick out. But Jajuan Johnson was picked to fill a potentially serious gap. I'm guessing Fab Melo was just a massive gamble.

It would have been nice to have a couple more young guys on this team.

Ainge has been drafting in the late first for a very long while and I think people need to consider the context and the thought process behind the 2 busts. Those picks had other considerations (a gamble and a "need"). I don't think Ainge has lost touch of his abilities in evaluating players.

And surely to say anything certain about Olynyk's career based on his half-a-rookie-season is a bit premature.

When you consider that an incredible number of draftees don't make it, Ainge still has a very good record. At least one in the top 5 to live up to expectations every draft and it only goes downhill from there.

A fellow CB poster made a list of the top drafters in the past 5 years, based on who got the most top 10 players in each draft. He thinks Ainge is up there. Having done most of his drafting in the late first, I'd say Ainge has been a pretty good drafter.

Here's a link to his thoughts:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=69577.0

[krumeto]

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude.

Please, enlighten me why should that be the case?

They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago.

Again, I would love to hear how do you assess that.

Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

This is like saying an IT person has no business in the IT industry other than say Google EMEA VP. Personally I would not call that a bust, and by no means I would assess that half a season into his career.

[crimson_stallion]

Surprised this thread is still going, even though it became more focused on the logistics of stats than Olynyk.

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude. As D.o.s pointed out, Ainge has drafted terribly in recent years (minus Sully). I called the two Purdue boys scrubs the second they were drafted. Guess what? Scrubs. Same with Fab - that's not even worth discussing, in my book.

And as Koz mentioned, we've no reason whatsoever to give KO extended mins. We're a losing team this year, can't argue with that... but homers seem to fail to realize what is NBA caliber talent/athleticism and what isn't. I'd argue that pre-Rondo's return, Bass was the best on the roster at creating his own shot and Hump was as/more paramount to our success than anyone else on the roster(both of whom someone mentioned should both be sat for KO's development). They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago. I don't have numbers for that. I'm sure you can google it; I don't know what will come up, maybe sites and stats will differ. But honestly, it's just an eye test. Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

I think this is absolute garbage. 

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Olynyk in the first half of the year was producing (on a per 36 minute basis) at about the same level as Sully.  If there is any player on this team who shouldn't project well with per-36 minute stats it's Sully, because his conditioning is so chronically poor (and hasn't made the slightest improvement) that I don't know if he will ever be able to average 36 minutes per game in a season.

Olynyk is nowhere near as limited as Sully from a conditioning standpoint, nor is he as slow and cumbersome.  He's actually reasonably mobile for a 7'0" guy, while Sully by comparison is horrendously slow and immobile for a 6'9" guy.

Somehow everybody here LOVES to quote Sully's per-36 minute numbers as an indication of where what they think he should be judged on.  Nobody here talks about sully as if he's a 13/8 guys...they all talk about him as if he's an 18/10 guy. 

To people here, the gold shines right out of Sully's behind...while everybody else on the team (who isn't getting opportunities to perform) is reportedly garbage.

Do you guys remember Sully's first month or two in the NBA as a rookie?  Do you remember how horrible he was on defense?  How badly he was getting torched by everybody with even the slightest hint of mobility?  How poorly he was shooting?  How frequently his shots were getting blocked? 

Sully picked up about half way through the season and started playing really well, and Olynyk hasn't really hit that same strike...but then Olynyk hasn't had the same opportunity.  Sully got a number of starts in his rookie year, and even as a backup he was usually playing significant minutes.  KO has mostly just gotten scrap minutes behind Bass, Sully and Humphreys. 

I'm not going to go out and predict that Sully is going to be an amazing superstar player, but I think he could be asolid starter in a couple of years time.  I don't see why he couldn't be just as productive as somebody like Andrea Bargnani, Channing Frye, Troy Murphy.  I don't se much that those guys had that Olynyk desn't.  His IQ is already well beyond what those guysever had, and neither one of them was especially athletic. 

Olynyk was taken 13th overall in what was considered the weakest draft in years - Danny could have done far, far worse.  Honestly, if he were to take another player beyong pick # 13, how many of those players would you guys say are better than Olynyk right now?

People criticise Danny's drafting but he's done very well in the past acquiring young guys like AB, Rondo, Sully, Big Baby, E'Twaun, etc.  Those guys all proved solid players for their draft position, and even if he didnt draft all of them.

He has misfired on some guys like JJ and Fab, yes.  How many GM's have had 100% in every single draft choice they have made?  Fab was a known gamble.  DA took that gamble because he had two first rounders, and after picking up a very NBA ready guy like Sully he could afford to take a camble on a raw prospect - in the end the gamble didn't work out.  So be it. It was worth the try.

[clover]

Surprised this thread is still going, even though it became more focused on the logistics of stats than Olynyk.

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude. As D.o.s pointed out, Ainge has drafted terribly in recent years (minus Sully). I called the two Purdue boys scrubs the second they were drafted. Guess what? Scrubs. Same with Fab - that's not even worth discussing, in my book.

And as Koz mentioned, we've no reason whatsoever to give KO extended mins. We're a losing team this year, can't argue with that... but homers seem to fail to realize what is NBA caliber talent/athleticism and what isn't. I'd argue that pre-Rondo's return, Bass was the best on the roster at creating his own shot and Hump was as/more paramount to our success than anyone else on the roster(both of whom someone mentioned should both be sat for KO's development). They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago. I don't have numbers for that. I'm sure you can google it; I don't know what will come up, maybe sites and stats will differ. But honestly, it's just an eye test. Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

I think this is absolute garbage. 

IMHO Olynyk is about a thousand times more skilled than Bass. 

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke AND a skilled post game don't come along often - much less ones who also have excellent hands, great passing skills, high IQ, and well above average ball handling.

Olynyk in the first half of the year was producing (on a per 36 minute basis) at about the same level as Sully.  If there is any player on this team who shouldn't project well with per-36 minute stats it's Sully, because his conditioning is so chronically poor (and hasn't made the slightest improvement) that I don't know if he will ever be able to average 36 minutes per game in a season.

Olynyk is nowhere near as limited as Sully from a conditioning standpoint, nor is he as slow and cumbersome.  He's actually reasonably mobile for a 7'0" guy, while Sully by comparison is horrendously slow and immobile for a 6'9" guy.

Somehow everybody here LOVES to quote Sully's per-36 minute numbers as an indication of where what they think he should be judged on.  Nobody here talks about sully as if he's a 13/8 guys...they all talk about him as if he's an 18/10 guy. 

To people here, the gold shines right out of Sully's behind...while everybody else on the team (who isn't getting opportunities to perform) is reportedly garbage.

Do you guys remember Sully's first month or two in the NBA as a rookie?  Do you remember how horrible he was on defense?  How badly he was getting torched by everybody with even the slightest hint of mobility?  How poorly he was shooting?  How frequently his shots were getting blocked? 

Sully picked up about half way through the season and started playing really well, and Olynyk hasn't really hit that same strike...but then Olynyk hasn't had the same opportunity.  Sully got a number of starts in his rookie year, and even as a backup he was usually playing significant minutes.  KO has mostly just gotten scrap minutes behind Bass, Sully and Humphreys. 

I'm not going to go out and predict that Sully is going to be an amazing superstar player, but I think he could be asolid starter in a couple of years time.  I don't see why he couldn't be just as productive as somebody like Andrea Bargnani, Channing Frye, Troy Murphy.  I don't se much that those guys had that Olynyk desn't.  His IQ is already well beyond what those guysever had, and neither one of them was especially athletic. 

Olynyk was taken 13th overall in what was considered the weakest draft in years - Danny could have done far, far worse.  Honestly, if he were to take another player beyong pick # 13, how many of those players would you guys say are better than Olynyk right now?

People criticise Danny's drafting but he's done very well in the past acquiring young guys like AB, Rondo, Sully, Big Baby, E'Twaun, etc.  Those guys all proved solid players for their draft position, and even if he didnt draft all of them.

He has misfired on some guys like JJ and Fab, yes.  How many GM's have had 100% in every single draft choice they have made?  Fab was a known gamble.  DA took that gamble because he had two first rounders, and after picking up a very NBA ready guy like Sully he could afford to take a camble on a raw prospect - in the end the gamble didn't work out.  So be it. It was worth the try.

I'm entirely with you on this formidable rant.

[PhoSita]

Some people decided the minute KO was drafted that they didn't like him and he was going to be another Adam Morrison.

Subsequently, they see what they want to see.

[Celtics4ever]

Some people decided the minute KO was drafted that they didn't like him and he was going to be another Adam Morrison.

Subsequently, they see what they want to see.

And some people think everyone on the team is an allstar.


Kedrick Brown anyone or Gerald Green...

7 footers with a nice shooting stroke

As for nice shooting he is shooting 43% from the floor and 30% from trey land.  I would not call this nice by any means.

"You're right.  Let's cut KO.  His rookie season has been a lost cause.  He's the next Fab Melo."

I think he is going to take time to develop.   He lacks strength to a great deal and confidence.   He is not worthless but he is not a budding all star either.   His passing is good but passing is only an asset when you surround a passer with shooters, which we don't have right now.

When he gets stronger and more confident he will be better.   He will never be a leaper or the like but can use anticipation to help with the rebounds.  Right now some nights I think Oly doesn't think he belongs out there.   I think when he gets stronger, he won't be as soft and it will help his confidence and his shot.  You can tell when he is shooting that he is not confident.  There is something he holds back on some shots.

I don't like the PER 36 projection.   It does not account for fatigue and the like.  I think KO is better than Melo. But PER 36 are useless to project what he can do because he would foul out in 25 minutes because he is a rookie.

[PhoSita]

Some people decided the minute KO was drafted that they didn't like him and he was going to be another Adam Morrison.

Subsequently, they see what they want to see.

And some people think everyone on the team is an allstar.

If by "some people" you mean "the straw man who exists only in my mind," then I think you're probably right.

Not jumping to conclusions about a player, maintaining that they could develop into a useful role player, and refraining from incessant hyperbolic outbursts every time they make a mistake, is not the same thing as believing regardless of all evidence to the contrary that the player is sure to be an All-Star.

[hwangjini_1]

I agree that he knows how to play D. I question whether he has the tools to do it.

Pick your metric, he's getting slaughtered on D so far this year. Maybe he'll improve, but until he does that, I don't think he is a legit NBA rotation player - on a good team, anyway.

I won't argue about the Fab comparison, but Fab might be the worst 1st round pick of the last decade by any NBA team.

I'm aware he's been pretty bad on paper.

Watching him play on D, though, makes me think if his deficiencies are further highlighted by the lackadaisical roster right now. His rotations could be tighter at times but he's there.

I've seen a few solid defensive plays from him, and quite a few of those are by virtue of his 7 footedness. I think being 7 foot with smarts and hustle helps a lot even though he's not the most talented one out there. But at the very least there won't be a double whammy of not knowing how and being incapable of playing D.

I've been saying, a lineup of SullyNyk and a defensive center could be a heck of a rotation. Even a limited defensive center.



He's looked a lot more comfortable since his return from injury, with offensive outbursts on several occasions. I'd love to see his stats on the defensive end since his return.

Surprised this thread is still going, even though it became more focused on the logistics of stats than Olynyk.

Regardless, I don't even think stats are relevant in our evaluation of the dude. As D.o.s pointed out, Ainge has drafted terribly in recent years (minus Sully). I called the two Purdue boys scrubs the second they were drafted. Guess what? Scrubs. Same with Fab - that's not even worth discussing, in my book.

And as Koz mentioned, we've no reason whatsoever to give KO extended mins. We're a losing team this year, can't argue with that... but homers seem to fail to realize what is NBA caliber talent/athleticism and what isn't. I'd argue that pre-Rondo's return, Bass was the best on the roster at creating his own shot and Hump was as/more paramount to our success than anyone else on the roster(both of whom someone mentioned should both be sat for KO's development). They're not only better now, surpassed KO's ceiling long ago. I don't have numbers for that. I'm sure you can google it; I don't know what will come up, maybe sites and stats will differ. But honestly, it's just an eye test. Dude has no business in the league as anything other than a 7th man on a decent team.

The busts really stick out. But Jajuan Johnson was picked to fill a potentially serious gap. I'm guessing Fab Melo was just a massive gamble.

It would have been nice to have a couple more young guys on this team.

Ainge has been drafting in the late first for a very long while and I think people need to consider the context and the thought process behind the 2 busts. Those picks had other considerations (a gamble and a "need"). I don't think Ainge has lost touch of his abilities in evaluating players.

And surely to say anything certain about Olynyk's career based on his half-a-rookie-season is a bit premature.

When you consider that an incredible number of draftees don't make it, Ainge still has a very good record. At least one in the top 5 to live up to expectations every draft and it only goes downhill from there.

A fellow CB poster made a list of the top drafters in the past 5 years, based on who got the most top 10 players in each draft. He thinks Ainge is up there. Having done most of his drafting in the late first, I'd say Ainge has been a pretty good drafter.

Here's a link to his thoughts:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=69577.0

just to rehash a thread from months ago, ainge is a good drafting GM. i believe the stats showed that for nba teams drafting in the least favorable 1/3 of the draft (pick located at about 20 to 30) only 25% of those players turn out to be solid nba players. 

look at the celtics drafting over the past four years - bradley and sullinger are both solid to good nba players.

the jury is still out on olly, but his ceiling does look to be a rotation player on a decent to good team. not a terrible draft pick given the quality of last year's talent.

[Birdman]

Im not a big fan of Olynyk either but who else was there at 13? The guy at Milwaukee would been nice but who else?

[rickyfan3.0...]

I have a lot of respect for Heinsohn, but he is absolutely unlistenable at this point... I hate shameless Homerism from the play-by-play team. Obviously there is going to be a little, but I mean, I'm not 12 years old, let's watch this game as adults haha...