Author Topic: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"  (Read 23039 times)

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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #30 on: February 03, 2014, 05:11:44 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Stevens judging this whole "fit" of the 2 of them together is probably very relative to the price Bradley will cost the celtics this offseason compared to the potential cost other "fits" would come at.
I'm sure that figuring out how well the two can play together despite the obvious limitations of the pairing is a major issue in deciding whether to retain Bradley. It's just that the whole "on paper" meandering gave me a good chuckle.

Honest question: Where are you drawing the Rondo-Lee > Rondo-Bradley numbers? Pollyanna that I am, I lean towards the pre-shoulder injury sample where Bradley took Ray's job as the better indication of how the two co-exist, and not last year's totally inconclusive unreliable handful of games before Rondo went down. It makes me feel better.

Edit: I've never looked at their 11-12 advanced stats either.

Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2014, 05:18:43 PM »

Offline action781

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Stevens judging this whole "fit" of the 2 of them together is probably very relative to the price Bradley will cost the celtics this offseason compared to the potential cost other "fits" would come at.
I'm sure that figuring out how well the two can play together despite the obvious limitations of the pairing is a major issue in deciding whether to retain Bradley. It's just that the whole "on paper" meandering gave me a good chuckle.

I think "on paper" almost every shooting guard in the NBA is a good fit next to Rondo.  Anybody who can either knock down an open 3 or move well without the ball can thrive next to Rondo.

The only types of players I feel particularly don't fit well with Rondo are ball-dominant players like Carmelo... who ironically wants to play with him.  For shooting guards, Kobe and Harden.

[ramble]... I wonder if the whole "on paper" thing has anything to do with how Jeff Green was supposed to be a great fit with Rondo on paper, but didn't turn out so on the court.  Question:  Is there really any type of team/system that Jeff Green would fit into well?  I'm struggling now. [/ramble]
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2014, 05:18:56 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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The fact that statistically, Terry was one our best players last year.  His defensive rating andoffensiverating were both along the best on the team, and I think he was the only player on our roster who was statistically positiveon bothends of the floor.
This is not true. Terry was a net negative offensively with the team scoring nearly 1 point per 100 possessions more with him off the court.

Pierce and Garnett where the MVPs in the on/off department, with Pierce having an on/off +5 per 100 possessions offensively, and Garnett having a +9(!) per 100 possessions defensively.

The point on Bradley's health is well-taken, and I'll stipulate that most of the Rondo-Bradley pairing minutes came while Bradley may have still been recovering. However, that's probably the bulk of the sample from which the Celtics brass has been drawing its conclusions, given that there isn't much else to lean on.

I expect that they give a little more weight to the prior season's sample, since it is signficantly larger than the dozen games they played in 2012-13 (all in January, just after Bradley came back from double-shoulder surgery / rehab).

In 2011-12, Rondo & Bradley played in 33 games together for some 452.5 minutes (most of it post-All Star break).   They posted the highest net rating (+13.4) of any twosome on the Celtics that season (minimum 300 minutes together).

Offensively, with those two on the floor together, the team scored 105.6 points per 100 possessions.

Defensively, with those two on the floor together opponents scored just 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

Now, usually, when presented with this information, folks assert that they were just fortunate to be playing on the same floor with Kevin Garnett.  And certainly they were fortunate to do so, but in the 284 of those minutes they shared with KG, the defensive rating was actually slightly _higher_, at 93.5.  Still fantastic.  But in the 178 minutes that Rondo & Bradley played together _without_ KG, the defensive rating was a ridiculous 89.6.

A small sample, of course.  But it is indicative that the defensive impact of the Rondo & Bradley combination can not simply be ascribed to having shared the floor with KG.

These, I suspect, are the statistics that have Danny & Co. intrigued.   Can Rondo & Bradley maintain those kind of ridiculous defensive numbers going forward?  With other teammates around them?

NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #33 on: February 03, 2014, 05:22:03 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Stevens judging this whole "fit" of the 2 of them together is probably very relative to the price Bradley will cost the celtics this offseason compared to the potential cost other "fits" would come at.
I'm sure that figuring out how well the two can play together despite the obvious limitations of the pairing is a major issue in deciding whether to retain Bradley. It's just that the whole "on paper" meandering gave me a good chuckle.

Honest question: Where are you drawing the Rondo-Lee > Rondo-Bradley numbers? Pollyanna that I am, I lean towards the pre-shoulder injury sample where Bradley took Ray's job as the better indication of how the two co-exist, and not last year's totally inconclusive unreliable handful of games before Rondo went down. It makes me feel better.

Edit: I've never looked at their 11-12 advanced stats either.
I pull from 82games.com, but those may be available at basketball-reference, too.

11-12 advanced stats (82games.com 5-man units) say the Bradley lineup was considerably better in both phases of the game than the Allen lineup. On the other hand, Allen looked pretty cooked that year already -- no defense, and stagnant offense trying to run him off 20 picks every trip down the floor. So this may be biased the other way.
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #34 on: February 03, 2014, 05:27:08 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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[ramble]... I wonder if the whole "on paper" thing has anything to do with how Jeff Green was supposed to be a great fit with Rondo on paper, but didn't turn out so on the court.  Question:  Is there really any type of team/system that Jeff Green would fit into well?  I'm struggling now. [/ramble]
Any system in which he's not the offensive focus would be great for him. He fit very nicely next to Rondo and Pierce in extended minutes last season.
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #35 on: February 03, 2014, 05:39:37 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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A small sample, of course.  But it is indicative that the defensive impact of the Rondo & Bradley combination can not simply be ascribed to having shared the floor with KG.
Interestingly, the Rondo-Bradley pairing has only played in three different lineups in 11-12: Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett, Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Stiemsma, and Rondo-Bradley-Pietrus-Bass-Stiemsma, some of our best defensive front courts.

All small samples, of course, but the Rondo-Pietrus guard pairing seems every bit as good as Rondo-Bradley, and defensive performance seems to correlate a lot with who's in the frontcourt (that is, having O'Neal or Stiemsma in seems to produce good defensive results, regardless of who's in the backcourt).

Wouldn't it be great to be a fly on the wall in the Celtics' data room...
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2014, 05:43:10 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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The next time I see Rondo pressuring the ball would probably be the first time since his rookie year. Likewise, I've never seen the team apply full-court pressure for the whole game, and I think it's a terrible idea -- it's way too much energy to expend, it can be handled with a single back-court screen, and it's just not worth it to risk having your smallish guard run full speed into a 250 lbs guerilla while hustling up the floor. There is a reason why most teams in the NBA don't do that.

Oh, and it also means that one of those two will have to be on the floor at all times, which actually minimizes the gains from the alleged synergy (and may force Bradley in the PG spot at times, too).

Also, I don't think anyone has ever argued that Bradley plays bigger than his size on defense (as a matter of fact, he probably plays smaller than his size because of his quickness, if that makes any sense).

The sample size with Rondo and Bradley on the court together has been relatively small over the last few years.  This is Because Bradley has spent a large amount of time either riding the bench (earlier in his career) or injured (later in his career). 

Two seasons back when Bradley was first given legit playing time by Doc, the Rondo-Bradley pairing was dominant defensive, and Bradley statistically had one of the best on/off numbers in the entire league.  He seemed to trive when playing with Rondo for exactly the reasons mentioned above - he would get a ton of easy layups off cuts, he was hitting a good percentage of open jumpers from midrange and from three (he shot around 40% that season, and has been around that figure much of this season too) and defensively the combination of Bradley's full court "in your face" pressure and Rondo's ability to knock away balls and get in the passing lanes meant absolute havok for opposing teams.

That backcourt combination was a big reason why we we made it to the ECF against Miami that season with Pierce and Ray shoting a combined 35% or so from the field, and one of the worst benches in the league (Mickael Pietrus was our 6th man and Ryan Hollins!).  Unfortunately Bradley was deactivated just prior to the Miami series, a series in which we gave the highly favoured Heat a hell of a fight...and I personally believe the series woudl have gone very differently if Bradley had been playing and healthy. 

Last season Bradley wasn't the same effective shooter on offense, but he only played half a season and obviously struggled after returning from surgery on BOTH of his shoulders.  Only a handful of games after he did return, Rondo was lost for the season.

I honestly believe that Avery has a greater impact offensively when he's playing alongside Rondo, because all of his shots come so much easier. I also think Rondo is a better player defensively when he's playing alongside Bradley, because Bradley's ability to pressure the ball allows Rondo to get some preserve some energy.  I honestly think one of the big reasons why Rondo doesn't pressure the ball as much as he used to is because he uses so much responsibility on offense that he doesn't have the energy to apply constant pressure defense at the same time.  With Bradley pressuring the opposing PG, Rondo can play off the ball on defense at times and pressure the ball in the half court, which takes up far less energy.

As for one of them being on the court all the time - that was pretty much already the case and almost always has been when they have played together.  When Rondo sits it will probably be Pressey + Bradley and when Bradley sits it can be Rondo + Bayless.  I think you'll find there will be very few moments where both Bradley and Rondo are on the bench at the same time, once Rondo is back to full health. 

I think it's very fair to say Bradley plays bigger than his size on defense.  Dwyane Wade is considered by most to be a 'big guard'.  He's listed at 6'4" but is really closer to 6'5" with shoes, and at around 220 lbs he has the strength of a small forward.  Bradley (when healthy) has given Wade fits in the past defensively, despite giving up both size and strength.  Yes he will still struggle at times against really big guards like Joe Johnson, but against reasonably big guards (Wade, Kobe, Tyreke, etc) Bradley is quite capable of holding his own.

Likewise Rondo.  I've seen Rondo defend guys as bit as 5-6" bigger than him.  I still have that image in my head of Rondo defending Lebron in the playoffs a few years back both on the perimeter and in the post, and giving him more than a bit of grief.  Sure you'd never want to have that matchup and Lebron will obviously domimnate him most of the time, but the point is that Rondo is pretty capable of defending bigger players when he's healthy, and can even hold his own in the occasional case where he is way overmatched. 


Quote
Again, the fact that Bradley plays best when not forced into the PG spot isn't the same as saying that the Rondo-Bradley pairing is a great fit. A more conventional SG who can hit a three, shoot over defenders, and perhaps not completely fall apart if they have to finish a contested layup would be better. Rondo-Bradley wasn't a very good offensive pairing last year (Rondo-Lee, on the other hand, was).

A more conventional SG won't give you All-defense calibre defensive pressure like Bradley does.  Everybody sees matchups that they struggle with at times (such as Felton killing Bradley in the playoffs last year) but with Bradley those matchup problems are pretty rare.  More often than not he dominates his assigment defensively and makes there life far more difficult and last I checked his defensive stats (opponent points allowed, opponent FG%, etc) indicate this.  Outscoring your opponent is the name of the game here - whether you do that by superior offensive or by superior defense makes no difference.  If anything defense is preferred because every good offensively player has days where shots just won't fall, but good defense is an effort area that a player can perform at consistently.

A more traditional scoring SG might give you 2 or 3 PPG more than Bradley, but they might also allow their opponent to score 4 or 5 PPG more than Bradley. Fact is that Bradley is a solid enough shooter that he has to be defended, and opponents respect him enough that they won't play off him the way they do with Rondo - if they do he has the ability to hit the shot with some consistency and can make the defense pay.  If you have a guy who can consistently play elite defense and at least hold his own on offense, then you're doing well. 

Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2014, 05:53:35 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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The meaning is pretty simple. He wants to see how they work as a unit because this offseason and then the next for Rondo both are due new contracts. Both are also young talents who could have value elsewhere.

No I'm pretty sure it means he has both of their apartments wiretapped.
TP...that gave me a pretty hearty chuckle

Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #38 on: February 03, 2014, 06:04:38 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Likewise Rondo.  I've seen Rondo defend guys as bit as 5-6" bigger than him.   
I don't think it's reasonable to expect Rondo to guard player 5-6" bigger than him for an entire, or even most part of a game. That Rondo-vs-Lebron highlight was great, for 3 possessions or so. Much like the Avery Bradley (or Tony Allen, for that matter) backdoor cut, it's a great change-of-pace tactic, but not a very good long-run strategy.

A more conventional SG won't give you All-defense calibre defensive pressure like Bradley does.
Why not? I'm sure there are SGs perfectly capable of playing good defense.


Quote
A more traditional scoring SG might give you 2 or 3 PPG more than Bradley, but they might also allow their opponent to score 4 or 5 PPG more than Bradley. Fact is that Bradley is a solid enough shooter that he has to be defended, and opponents respect him enough that they won't play off him the way they do with Rondo - if they do he has the ability to hit the shot with some consistency and can make the defense pay.  If you have a guy who can consistently play elite defense and at least hold his own on offense, then you're doing well.
What a more traditional SG may give you depends entirely on who the player is. That they will allow more points is pure conjecture. In fact, I'd argue that when Bradley is not pressuring the ball, his defense drops from stellar to decent. And there's a pretty good question to be asked about the ability of any player to pressure the ball 82 games a season. I certainly think this was part of why Felton was able to have his way with Bradley.

edit: Also, I don't necessarily consider Wade a "big" SG. Average, perhaps. Big guards include the likes of Lance Stephenson, (6'6, 230 lbs), Joe Johnson (6'8, 240 lbs), Kyle Korver (6'8 ), or Paul George (6'9). Perhaps these are a thing of the past, but Pierce spent a lot of time playing SG too, and he's 6'6, 235.

Also, perhaps Bradley gave a 30- or 31-year-old Wade fits ... but I'm not sure  how well that would have worked with a 25 or eve 27 year old version of Wade.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2014, 06:22:46 PM by kozlodoev »
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2014, 06:36:17 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Likewise Rondo.  I've seen Rondo defend guys as bit as 5-6" bigger than him.   
I don't think it's reasonable to expect Rondo to guard player 5-6" bigger than him for an entire, or even most part of a game. That Rondo-vs-Lebron highlight was great, for 3 possessions or so. Much like the Avery Bradley (or Tony Allen, for that matter) backdoor cut, it's a great change-of-pace tactic, but not a very good long-run strategy.

A more conventional SG won't give you All-defense calibre defensive pressure like Bradley does.
Why not? I'm sure there are SGs perfectly capable of playing good defense.

  Sure there are, but how hard is it going to be to bring in a player that's a good defender and plays offense the way you're talking about a "good match for Rondo"?

  It's true that Bradley isn't a perfect fit with Rondo. If he was there would be no reason to evaluate things. The question is, will a Bradley/Rondo backcourt be good enough that you can go forward with it (and give a contract to Bradley) or whether you need to spend whatever assets are necessary to upgrade your starting backcourt.

  With the qualifications that Bradley was playing exceptionally well at the time and Manu and Harden (at the time) were coming off of the bench, you probably could have made the argument in 2012 that if not for Bradley's shoulders we might have had the best (current form) starting backcourt in the playoffs that year.

Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #40 on: February 03, 2014, 06:58:34 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Also, I don't think anyone has ever argued that Bradley plays bigger than his size on defense (as a matter of fact, he probably plays smaller than his size because of his quickness, if that makes any sense).

It's usually been argued that his above-average wingspan and vertical leap make him more equipped to guard bigger players compared to other undersized SGs.
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #41 on: February 03, 2014, 07:06:24 PM »

Offline jr_3421

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I love Bradley but Stevens offensively seems to emphasize ball movement to get lay ups and 3's. Bradley is a ball stopper who has no passing instincts and has a hard time finishing in traffic. He is a streaky 3pt shooter who I think will improve but he loves taking long 2pt shots. It just doesn't seem like a fit which makes me think he's going to be involved in a trade come draft night.

Defensively Bradley obviously is elite but a SG who can't guard SFs severely limits defensive options.

One trade I think makes would be for Larry Sanders. Since he has a poison pill contract which makes him very difficult to trade for, we could sign AB to an extension that makes the trade work.

I just love the potential of a Sullinger/Sanders combo.
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #42 on: February 03, 2014, 07:08:58 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Sure there are, but how hard is it going to be to bring in a player that's a good defender and plays offense the way you're talking about a "good match for Rondo"?
I've got no idea. I'm not sure you do, despite implying it should be hard.

It's true that Bradley isn't a perfect fit with Rondo. If he was there would be no reason to evaluate things. The question is, will a Bradley/Rondo backcourt be good enough that you can go forward with it (and give a contract to Bradley) or whether you need to spend whatever assets are necessary to upgrade your starting backcourt.
Again, what gave me the chuckle were the "good fit on paper" comments, not the need to evaluate. I see them as mostly a bad fit on paper, though possibly a better one in action.

With the qualifications that Bradley was playing exceptionally well at the time and Manu and Harden (at the time) were coming off of the bench, you probably could have made the argument in 2012 that if not for Bradley's shoulders we might have had the best (current form) starting backcourt in the playoffs that year.
Given the qualifications, this argument is pretty pointless. Also, Chalmers and Wade were not exactly chopped liver that season.
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #43 on: February 03, 2014, 07:26:53 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Also, I don't think anyone has ever argued that Bradley plays bigger than his size on defense (as a matter of fact, he probably plays smaller than his size because of his quickness, if that makes any sense).

It's usually been argued that his above-average wingspan and vertical leap make him more equipped to guard bigger players compared to other undersized SGs.
Bradley has a 6'7 wingspan and a 8'2 vertical reach, both pretty unremarkable for players his size. The standing reach is decidedly average, the wingspan perhaps towards the upper end, although comparable to guys such as Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and Damian Lillard.

Prototypical SGs measure much bigger, particularly in terms of standing reach: e.g. Tyreke Evans (6'11, 8'8 ), James Harden (6'11, 8'8 ), Jamal Crawford (6'10, 8'7), Tony Allen (6'9, 8'6) or Gerald Henderson (6'10, 8'7).
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Re: Stevens: Monitoring Rondo/Bradley duo "huge, huge priority for me"
« Reply #44 on: February 03, 2014, 07:27:48 PM »

Offline bobbyv

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I have no idea where kozlodoev is getting his idea that Rondo and Bradley don't fit each other. They're perfect for each other. I remember 2011-2012 stretch where the team posted some of the best defensive numbers in the league with the Bradley Rondo backcourt. They also really improved the offense.