Author Topic: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.  (Read 89547 times)

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Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #60 on: February 03, 2014, 11:01:29 AM »

Offline DesertDweller

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Rondo finally comes out with a strong performance, and this is what people are fixated about? Seriously?

Im fixated on Banner 18, that is all I care about.

Watch out you don't bite your fingernails down to the first knuckle or you won't be able to type about your favorite topic...."TANKING 101".
be careful what you wish for, lottery lover, it might come back to bite you in you're Arse!!!

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #61 on: February 03, 2014, 11:33:48 AM »

Offline BballTim

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I get the funny feeling that the tankers in the crowd will go apoplectic if we win 7 of 10 and don't make any trades over the next ten days yet, that is exactly what could happen.

I don't know how likely that is. Its probably more likely no trades are made than the team winning 7 of 10 games but anything is possible as a lot of teams that we play over the next t few weeks are tanking hard.
If that did happen I'd be furious. It would be the worst outcome for the future of this franchise.
Having that pick is the diamond in our asset collection.
No matter if you oppose rebuilding by drafting players or trading assets to get them-we need to nab one of those top 5 picks.
Considering Danny traded away Crawford and Lee though, it's very unlikely that this current roster stays the same over the trade deadline because they are still good enough to win 7 of 10 against the other scum of the league.
The veterans that likely don't have part in the future of this team are probably gone for breakeven returns at best.
Personally I hope Danny puts player development of Sullinger, Olynyk, Fav and Blue ahead of winning a few meaningless games.


Count me among the depressed as we watch our lottery chances get destroyed.  Say good-bye to Jabari Parker and say hello to Rodney Hood.  All in the name of seeing Bass and Humphries pad their statistics and play for their next contract.  Why isn't Olynyk playing?

Glad to see Rondo play well and Bradley healthy.  But I am sick to my stomach.  Hats off to the Lakers who know what they are doing.

  Who's to say the Lakers won't play better when Kobe comes back? All of the teams at the bottom have ups and downs. A few weeks ago Utah had the worst record all but locked up, now they're above us in the standings. When we played a tough schedule in January we "knew what we were doing". Now that we're playing some easy teams we're "obliterating our lottery chances". Sooner or later we'll have another tough stretch of games and the pendulum will swing back in the other direction. Same for most (if not all) of the other lottery teams.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #62 on: February 03, 2014, 11:42:37 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Rondo finally comes out with a strong performance, and this is what people are fixated about? Seriously?

Im fixated on Banner 18, that is all I care about.

Watch out you don't bite your fingernails down to the first knuckle or you won't be able to type about your favorite topic...."TANKING 101".
be careful what you wish for, lottery lover, it might come back to bite you in you're Arse!!!

If you spent as much time on your spelling and your grammar as you do telling people how to root for the Celtics "the right way," you might have a point.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #63 on: February 03, 2014, 12:02:19 PM »

Offline Enzzo

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Rondo finally comes out with a strong performance, and this is what people are fixated about? Seriously?

Im fixated on Banner 18, that is all I care about.

Watch out you don't bite your fingernails down to the first knuckle or you won't be able to type about your favorite topic...."TANKING 101".
be careful what you wish for, lottery lover, it might come back to bite you in you're Arse!!!

If you spent as much time on your spelling and your grammar as you do telling people how to root for the Celtics "the right way," you might have a point.

How dare you form your own opinion! [dang] lottery lovers!!

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #64 on: February 03, 2014, 12:15:24 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Rondo finally comes out with a strong performance, and this is what people are fixated about? Seriously?

Im fixated on Banner 18, that is all I care about.

  How many people here do you don't think are fixated on winning the next title? That's like saying "I root for the Celtics".

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #65 on: February 03, 2014, 12:38:42 PM »

Offline RyNye

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Okay, some people in this thread need to calm down and take a step off the ledge. Take a look at this sentence

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

That is a reasonable thing to say. But, that is a very different thing from saying,

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

If you can't tell the difference between these two statements, you need to go look up the word "hyperbole" in the dictionary. Too many people in this thread are saying the latter, which is patently absurd. There are numerous paths to "salvation" in the NBA, as history has proven time and time again. There is no such thing as a 100% in the lottery; look at every draft in NBA history. At least one player in the top 5 is a bust, guaranteed. In some drafts it is more. But there has never been an NBA draft without a bust in the top 5.

The path to a championship is through overall good management. This INCLUDES the lottery, but is not EXCLUSIVE to the lottery. Good management, as Danny Ainge, Larry Bird, Daryl Morey, and others have proven, is NOT following some pre-determined boilerplate template for success - in fact, that is the route to failure. It is inflexible and idiotic. Good management is the process of reacting to new situations and making the best out of them.

If you honestly think that there is any player in this draft that is a 100% sure thing, you are insane, because those don't exist. For every Lebron there is a Darko. If you honestly think that not getting this supposed sure thing means this championship never wins another title ever, you are also insane, because that assumes you can see the future.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion on what is best for this franchise. But stop acting like you are the only prescient one and that nobody else knows or cares as much about this franchise as you, and spewing wild vitriolic hyperbole is not conducive to having an enjoyable or productive discussion about our team.

Remember, say this:

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

NOT this:

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

One is the well-thought out opinion of a basketball fan, the other are the ramblings of a lunatic.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #66 on: February 03, 2014, 12:42:58 PM »

Offline Enzzo

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Okay, some people in this thread need to calm down and take a step off the ledge. Take a look at this sentence

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

That is a reasonable thing to say. But, that is a very different thing from saying,

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

If you can't tell the difference between these two statements, you need to go look up the word "hyperbole" in the dictionary. Too many people in this thread are saying the latter, which is patently absurd. There are numerous paths to "salvation" in the NBA, as history has proven time and time again. There is no such thing as a 100% in the lottery; look at every draft in NBA history. At least one player in the top 5 is a bust, guaranteed. In some drafts it is more. But there has never been an NBA draft without a bust in the top 5.

The path to a championship is through overall good management. This INCLUDES the lottery, but is not EXCLUSIVE to the lottery. Good management, as Danny Ainge, Larry Bird, Daryl Morey, and others have proven, is NOT following some pre-determined boilerplate template for success - in fact, that is the route to failure. It is inflexible and idiotic. Good management is the process of reacting to new situations and making the best out of them.

If you honestly think that there is any player in this draft that is a 100% sure thing, you are insane, because those don't exist. For every Lebron there is a Darko. If you honestly think that not getting this supposed sure thing means this championship never wins another title ever, you are also insane, because that assumes you can see the future.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion on what is best for this franchise. But stop acting like you are the only prescient one and that nobody else knows or cares as much about this franchise as you, and spewing wild vitriolic hyperbole is not conducive to having an enjoyable or productive discussion about our team.

Remember, say this:

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

NOT this:

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

One is the well-thought out opinion of a basketball fan, the other are the ramblings of a lunatic.

Perfect. TP

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #67 on: February 03, 2014, 12:45:59 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Okay, some people in this thread need to calm down and take a step off the ledge. Take a look at this sentence

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

That is a reasonable thing to say. But, that is a very different thing from saying,

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

If you can't tell the difference between these two statements, you need to go look up the word "hyperbole" in the dictionary. Too many people in this thread are saying the latter, which is patently absurd. There are numerous paths to "salvation" in the NBA, as history has proven time and time again. There is no such thing as a 100% in the lottery; look at every draft in NBA history. At least one player in the top 5 is a bust, guaranteed. In some drafts it is more. But there has never been an NBA draft without a bust in the top 5.

The path to a championship is through overall good management. This INCLUDES the lottery, but is not EXCLUSIVE to the lottery. Good management, as Danny Ainge, Larry Bird, Daryl Morey, and others have proven, is NOT following some pre-determined boilerplate template for success - in fact, that is the route to failure. It is inflexible and idiotic. Good management is the process of reacting to new situations and making the best out of them.

If you honestly think that there is any player in this draft that is a 100% sure thing, you are insane, because those don't exist. For every Lebron there is a Darko. If you honestly think that not getting this supposed sure thing means this championship never wins another title ever, you are also insane, because that assumes you can see the future.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion on what is best for this franchise. But stop acting like you are the only prescient one and that nobody else knows or cares as much about this franchise as you, and spewing wild vitriolic hyperbole is not conducive to having an enjoyable or productive discussion about our team.

Agreed.  It's doubly perplexing when our last championship can be directly traced to losing out on the high pick we geared our season towards. 

Lots of ways to success; the key is keeping as many of those paths open as possible, not sticking unfailingly to one, especially the one that involves relying the most on things that are out of our control.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #68 on: February 03, 2014, 12:46:08 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- if the reward for enduring this overlong and frequently unpleasant season is less than a top 10 pick, I'll be very disappointed, and while I think calling it a disaster might be hyperbole, it certainly would be a pretty significant bit of misfortune. 

In any normal season, this team would have no chance of falling outside of the top 7-8 teams.  But this is not a normal season, and there are going to be at least a few teams lacking in talent that will end up picking in the middle of the 1st round because of how bad the East is.
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Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #69 on: February 03, 2014, 12:57:43 PM »

Offline LilRip

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Okay, some people in this thread need to calm down and take a step off the ledge. Take a look at this sentence

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

That is a reasonable thing to say. But, that is a very different thing from saying,

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

If you can't tell the difference between these two statements, you need to go look up the word "hyperbole" in the dictionary. Too many people in this thread are saying the latter, which is patently absurd. There are numerous paths to "salvation" in the NBA, as history has proven time and time again. There is no such thing as a 100% in the lottery; look at every draft in NBA history. At least one player in the top 5 is a bust, guaranteed. In some drafts it is more. But there has never been an NBA draft without a bust in the top 5.

The path to a championship is through overall good management. This INCLUDES the lottery, but is not EXCLUSIVE to the lottery. Good management, as Danny Ainge, Larry Bird, Daryl Morey, and others have proven, is NOT following some pre-determined boilerplate template for success - in fact, that is the route to failure. It is inflexible and idiotic. Good management is the process of reacting to new situations and making the best out of them.

If you honestly think that there is any player in this draft that is a 100% sure thing, you are insane, because those don't exist. For every Lebron there is a Darko. If you honestly think that not getting this supposed sure thing means this championship never wins another title ever, you are also insane, because that assumes you can see the future.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion on what is best for this franchise. But stop acting like you are the only prescient one and that nobody else knows or cares as much about this franchise as you, and spewing wild vitriolic hyperbole is not conducive to having an enjoyable or productive discussion about our team.

Remember, say this:

"I would like a high draft pick, because I think it increases our odds of drafting an impact player or making a meaningful trade for one."

NOT this:

"It will be an unmitigated disaster if we don't get a high draft pick, it will ruin this franchise going forward, because the only possible route to salvation is to draft [Jabari/Embiid/insert your favorite college player here]."

One is the well-thought out opinion of a basketball fan, the other are the ramblings of a lunatic.

agreed, but in the same vein, rooting for a win streak could bee seen as either lunacy or being short-sighted as well. there's a difference between:
1. Rooting for wins, just to win, and
2. Rooting for development of the young guys

getting a high draft pick just makes too much sense this year. Whether that pick will be used to draft a rookie or trade for an all-star on a bad team, we'll let Ainge decide. But a top-3 pick will definitely hold more value than a 'barely-miss-the-playoffs' win streak by players who might not even be here in a year or two. IMO, falling to the 12th-14th pick will be the worst loss we suffer this season.

- LilRip

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #70 on: February 03, 2014, 01:06:52 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I'm getting tired of beating this drum but it does seem to be contrary to the very notion of being a fan to wish that your team would lose.

I'm excited about the prospect of a top ten or top five or top three draft pick actually playing for the Celtics instead of being traded right away, but I don't ever wish for the C's to lose.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #71 on: February 03, 2014, 01:15:10 PM »

Offline LilRip

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excuse the double post, but i thought i'd just share something i posted in another thread a while back juxtaposing Bobcats and the Thunder, particularly since the Bobcats are generally brought up as the poster child against using the draft as a rebuilding tool.

Quote
the draft itself also takes some skill and some luck.

and regarding the thunder, i assume you mean in the 3 consecutive years (07-09) where the Thunder drafted Durant (2nd), Westbrook (4th), Ibaka (24th) and Harden (3rd). let's examine.

In all 3 of those years, the Thunder/Sonics had a consistently worse record than the Bobcats and thus, understandably drafted at a higher position.

Thunder 07: 31-51, 5th worst record ->2nd pick (lucky)
Bobcats 07: 33-49, 8th worst record -> 8th pick

Thunder 08: 20-62, 2nd worst record -> 4th pick ("unlucky")
Bobcats 08: 32-50, 8th worst record -> 9th pick

Thunder 09: 23-59, 4th worst record -> 3rd pick
Bobcats 09: 35-47, 12th worst record -> 12th pick

Following that the 'worse team should have better draft position', it pretty much holds true for the Bobcats-Thunder comparison.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but furthermore, look at the selections the bobcats could have made. These are players who were drafted after the bobcats made their pick, while also being in their pick's range (e.g. in Noah's case, the bobcats picked 8th while Noah was picked 9th):

2007: Joakim Noah (instead of trading for J-Rich)
2008: Brook Lopez (instead of DJ Augustin) AND Serge Ibaka or Nicolas Batum (instead of Alexis Ajinca)
2009: Jrue Holiday or Ty Lawson (instead of Gerald Henderson).

anyway, the point i'm driving home is that while high draft picks aren't a sure thing (because the Bobcats have had some high picks as well such as Adam Morrison), it's not the 'system' or the method itself that's flawed. Bad or hasty management moves and poor drafting are what ultimately wreck a team.
- LilRip

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #72 on: February 03, 2014, 01:28:09 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I'm hoping they are showcasing Bass and Green for a deal at the deadline. I'd like to see KO get at least 25 mins a game so we can see what we have.


I think we can be pretty certain that the bolded part is NOT happening.

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Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #73 on: February 03, 2014, 01:34:05 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- if the reward for enduring this overlong and frequently unpleasant season is less than a top 10 pick, I'll be very disappointed, and while I think calling it a disaster might be hyperbole, it certainly would be a pretty significant bit of misfortune. 

In any normal season, this team would have no chance of falling outside of the top 7-8 teams.  But this is not a normal season, and there are going to be at least a few teams lacking in talent that will end up picking in the middle of the 1st round because of how bad the East is.

  I'm starting to think this isn't a one season only thing but the new (or at least current) nba. A few weeks ago I checked the number of bad teams (I might have used 30 wins or an equivalent winning% in strike years) every year to see if there was a spike in years like 2003. What I found was a pretty static number of bad teams and little to no relationship between the draft and the number of bad teams.

  What I did notice, however, was a significant increase in the number of bad teams (50% or so more) before the LeBron FA summer, and that higher level of bad teams has held pretty steady. I'm guessing the new CBA might be involved. You probably can't go back to any of the first 8-9 years of the century and find as many teams as we have now, but the last few years have had comparable numbers. Off topic no doubt, but IMO fairly interesting.

Re: The next 10 games will obliterate our lottery chances.
« Reply #74 on: February 03, 2014, 01:42:14 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- if the reward for enduring this overlong and frequently unpleasant season is less than a top 10 pick, I'll be very disappointed, and while I think calling it a disaster might be hyperbole, it certainly would be a pretty significant bit of misfortune. 

In any normal season, this team would have no chance of falling outside of the top 7-8 teams.  But this is not a normal season, and there are going to be at least a few teams lacking in talent that will end up picking in the middle of the 1st round because of how bad the East is.

  I'm starting to think this isn't a one season only thing but the new (or at least current) nba. A few weeks ago I checked the number of bad teams (I might have used 30 wins or an equivalent winning% in strike years) every year to see if there was a spike in years like 2003. What I found was a pretty static number of bad teams and little to no relationship between the draft and the number of bad teams.

  What I did notice, however, was a significant increase in the number of bad teams (50% or so more) before the LeBron FA summer, and that higher level of bad teams has held pretty steady. I'm guessing the new CBA might be involved. You probably can't go back to any of the first 8-9 years of the century and find as many teams as we have now, but the last few years have had comparable numbers. Off topic no doubt, but IMO fairly interesting.

You may be onto something there, although my feeling is that it's not just the win totals -- I feel like the overall talent level is very low in the East this season, and the teams at the bottom are really bad.  There are probably a handful of teams that would be the clear-cut worst in the league in previous years.
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