Chad Ford: 'NBA execs say Chris Bosh most likely to leave Miami this offseason'

[BballTim]

I would be very surprised if Bosh left Miami. He values winning very highly and was sick of being the man without enough help up in Toronto. I think it would be very hard for another team to make Bosh an attractive enough offer for him to leave Miami.

Bosh has been willing to give up money in the past and I think he would do so again on his next contract. I think Bosh is much happier being in a winning situation making very good money than being on a middling team making great money.

What about free up money with the rumored Green/Wallace trade, sign Bosh, S&T for Hayward, draft Parker...?

Rondo
Hayward
Parker
Sully
Bosh

That is a team more built for the future than the right here right now.

I think Hayward is a very good player but I believe his reputation is somewhat similar to a Jeff Green. A 3rd option type of character.

Sully is still a young guy. 13 points and 8 rebounds per game. Good but again not dominant.

Parker is a very good prospect but he is still a rookie and stars at their peak like Bosh almost never go to a team in Free Agency to play with a rookie / unproven player instead of established stars.

It's a team with strong future potential but not much of a draw for right here right now. More like a mid-seed playoff team than a title contender.

Rondo is the only real star there. The rest unproven.

Need more established talent. Genuine All-Stars. Preferably another All-NBA guy. To show the team is truly ready to win (right now). Rondo + top 20 player + Bosh + (some combo of Green, Sully, Bradley, #1 pick) would make an attractive proposition.

  I've never been a big Bosh fan but I wouldn't call him unproven. That team would be good on offense but you'd have to worry about the defense, especially on opposing wings.

[gpap]

I've always liked Chris Bosh.

Great player and seems like a cool guy as well.

Would love to have him on the Celtics.

[nickagneta]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

[BballTim]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

[Smartacus]

http://caldeford.blogspot.com/2009/09/bosh-vs-garnett-player-comparison.html?m=1

Raptors Bosh was a force in this league akin to pre prime KG. I remember reading the above article (or one similar) years ago and found the stat comparisons are surprisingly similar between two players with such wildly different on court demeanors.

Comparing points and rebounds per game is superficial and ignores significant differences in defensive ability.

A couple people have been discounting the article. But defensive rating is not superficial I don't think many actually read any of the article... it states that Bosh has a 102 defensive rating to KG's 106. I can't tell if some of you guys are vastly overeating pre MVP KG or if Bosh is just criminally underrated historically.

To be clear, im not saying Bosh had the MVP ceiling of KG but for their first 6 years in the league they put out similar production.

[Fafnir]

http://caldeford.blogspot.com/2009/09/bosh-vs-garnett-player-comparison.html?m=1

Raptors Bosh was a force in this league akin to pre prime KG. I remember reading the above article (or one similar) years ago and found the stat comparisons are surprisingly similar between two players with such wildly different on court demeanors.

Comparing points and rebounds per game is superficial and ignores significant differences in defensive ability.

... it states that Bosh has a 102 defensive rating to KG's 106.

It states the opposite, KG has a 102 DRTG to Bosh's 106 DRTG. They did have similar production their first 6 years, though KG was again better due to defense.

One thing the article doesn't touch on is KG played SF for his first two years in the league, and wasn't nearly as good because of it production wise.

But since its not 2009 anymore we now know while KG became the best rebounder in the league after that sample, Bosh had his rebounding inflated by Bargs historic awfulness and regressed to a disappointing level.

[nickagneta]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

[BballTim]

http://caldeford.blogspot.com/2009/09/bosh-vs-garnett-player-comparison.html?m=1

Raptors Bosh was a force in this league akin to pre prime KG. I remember reading the above article (or one similar) years ago and found the stat comparisons are surprisingly similar between two players with such wildly different on court demeanors.

Comparing points and rebounds per game is superficial and ignores significant differences in defensive ability.

A couple people have been discounting the article. But defensive rating is not superficial I don't think many actually read any of the article... it states that Bosh has a 102 defensive rating to KG's 106. I can't tell if some of you guys are vastly overeating pre MVP KG or if Bosh is just criminally underrated historically.

To be clear, im not saying Bosh had the MVP ceiling of KG but for their first 6 years in the league they put out similar production.

  In Bosh's first 6 years he made 1 all-nba team. In KG's first 6 years he made 3 all-nba teams, 2 all-defense teams and finished 2nd in MVP voting one year and 5th another. I think that's a reasonable measure of how close they were as players. It would be like comparing Gary Payton to a pg that's an decent defender but puts up the same points and assists as Payton and deciding that they were pretty similar.

[BballTim]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

  They'd still have cap holds for 4-5 players, wouldn't they? I was guessing somewhere around $15M give or take, which seems like quite a pay cut for a player like that.

[kozlodoev]

Same execs who thought Ainge was verily begging people to take Green off his hands? Color me unimpressed.

[slamtheking]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

  They'd still have cap holds for 4-5 players, wouldn't they? I was guessing somewhere around $15M give or take, which seems like quite a pay cut for a player like that.

Bosh took a little less than he could otherwise get in order to sign with Miami.  He might be willing to do so again.  It's not like he's playing for the vet min.  $15 mill a year to be the 3rd best player on the team again is nothing to sneeze at.

[Who]

I would be very surprised if Bosh left Miami. He values winning very highly and was sick of being the man without enough help up in Toronto. I think it would be very hard for another team to make Bosh an attractive enough offer for him to leave Miami.

Bosh has been willing to give up money in the past and I think he would do so again on his next contract. I think Bosh is much happier being in a winning situation making very good money than being on a middling team making great money.

What about free up money with the rumored Green/Wallace trade, sign Bosh, S&T for Hayward, draft Parker...?

Rondo
Hayward
Parker
Sully
Bosh

That is a team more built for the future than the right here right now.

I think Hayward is a very good player but I believe his reputation is somewhat similar to a Jeff Green. A 3rd option type of character.

Sully is still a young guy. 13 points and 8 rebounds per game. Good but again not dominant.

Parker is a very good prospect but he is still a rookie and stars at their peak like Bosh almost never go to a team in Free Agency to play with a rookie / unproven player instead of established stars.

It's a team with strong future potential but not much of a draw for right here right now. More like a mid-seed playoff team than a title contender.

Rondo is the only real star there. The rest unproven.

Need more established talent. Genuine All-Stars. Preferably another All-NBA guy. To show the team is truly ready to win (right now). Rondo + top 20 player + Bosh + (some combo of Green, Sully, Bradley, #1 pick) would make an attractive proposition.

  I've never been a big Bosh fan but I wouldn't call him unproven. That team would be good on offense but you'd have to worry about the defense, especially on opposing wings.

No, sorry I was trying to say ... for Bosh to join = Rondo is the only proven (star) teammate already there the Celtics (prior to Bosh joining). 

The others (Sully, Parker, Hayward) haven't proven themselves as star players in the NBA. I think Boston needs a 2nd star player already in place for Bosh to join and become the 3rd star on the team. For Bosh to consider it a title contender.

I don't think the Sully, Parker, Hayward mix is enough. Lot of young talent and upside. But not as an enticing in win-now situation. More future than now.

[nickagneta]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

  They'd still have cap holds for 4-5 players, wouldn't they? I was guessing somewhere around $15M give or take, which seems like quite a pay cut for a player like that.

I figured those holds in there as they are only $500K per missing player. I didn't figure 1st round picks though they could easily trade that away as well but might not need to given the expected bump up in the salary cap. While I don't think the salary cap will go as high as the league projects($62 million) It could go over $60 million

James Harden  $14.7
Dwight Howard  $21.4
Terrence Jones  $1.6
Chandler Parsons  $1.0
Patrick Beverly  $0.9
Isiah Canaan  $0.8
5 empty slots  $2.6

Total $42.5

If the cap comes in at $62 million that's $19 million first year. If it comes in at $60 million that's $17 million first year. Its a slight pay cut but most teams are going to argue that his contributions to the Heat haven't been worth a $20 million contract anyway, so I do not see him getting a max contract coming out of Miami.

[BballTim]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

  They'd still have cap holds for 4-5 players, wouldn't they? I was guessing somewhere around $15M give or take, which seems like quite a pay cut for a player like that.

Bosh took a little less than he could otherwise get in order to sign with Miami.  He might be willing to do so again.  It's not like he's playing for the vet min.  $15 mill a year to be the 3rd best player on the team again is nothing to sneeze at.

  Not close to that much less, and that was when he was desperate to be on a winner. Kind of like the ubuntu that dissipated over time after the big three won it all in 2008. It would be awfully unusual for a player like him at his age taking that much of a discount to switch teams, especially if it's not a NY/LA thing.

[BballTim]

If Bosh is gone out of Miami and Morey can find takers for Asik and Lin with just expirings coming back, I would have to think the place Bosh heads is Houston with Harden and Howard.

  Bosh makes about $20M a year. Houston wouldn't have close to that much cap space, would they?

If they salary dumped Asik and Lin, don't pick up most of their non-guaranteed contracts and moved Montiejunas for a future pick to some team, it would be really close depending where the salary cap ends up.

If it ends up at around $60+ million, they could probably offer him a contract starting around $18-19 million a year.

James Harden
Dwight Howard
Chris Bosh
Terrence Jones
Chandler Parsons
Greg Smith
Patrick Beverly
Isiah Canaan

Is a really good starting point for a championship contender, IMHO, which is probably the type of atmosphere Bosh would want to be in.

EDIT: Bosh grew up in Texas so this gets him closer to home

  They'd still have cap holds for 4-5 players, wouldn't they? I was guessing somewhere around $15M give or take, which seems like quite a pay cut for a player like that.

I figured those holds in there as they are only $500K per missing player. I didn't figure 1st round picks though they could easily trade that away as well but might not need to given the expected bump up in the salary cap. While I don't think the salary cap will go as high as the league projects($62 million) It could go over $60 million

James Harden  $14.7
Dwight Howard  $21.4
Terrence Jones  $1.6
Chandler Parsons  $1.0
Patrick Beverly  $0.9
Isiah Canaan  $0.8
5 empty slots  $2.6

Total $42.5

If the cap comes in at $62 million that's $19 million first year. If it comes in at $60 million that's $17 million first year. Its a slight pay cut but most teams are going to argue that his contributions to the Heat haven't been worth a $20 million contract anyway, so I do not see him getting a max contract coming out of Miami.

  Maybe. I'd bet he'd get at least 1 max offer, and I don't see Houston paying that much money to 3 players when they'd probably have to stay in luxury tax land to field a good cast around them.