11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today

[lightspeed5]

i dont know if the draft is deep, starting to think its more "top heavy" than deep.

[fitzhickey]

Dante has the work ethic to gain muscle, and when he does he will be scary.

[slamtheking]

i dont know if the draft is deep, starting to think its more "top heavy" than deep.

fortunately our own pick will be in the 'heavy' section.  should still be able to get a good prospect with that second pick too

[chambers]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

[lightspeed5]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.

[Jailan34]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?

[lightspeed5]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?

exactly. danny blew up the team for a reason, to wait for lebrons prime to pass and develop talent in the meantime.

[Beat LA]

My biggest worry is that the Lakers keep tanking, and end up with the No. 1 pick.  That would just suck.

Which is precisely why it's likely that they somehow end up in the top 3.  That will be Stern's final gift to LA.  The first few times I played the lottery machine, we were at 5, 7, and 8, while the Lakers somehow kept getting in the top 3 at 1 and 2 (although we just got the 1st after I tried it again.  Typical    We have to be realistic, though.  The most likely spot we get is #5 - tantalizingly close, but oh so far away, like in 2007.  Who do we take there?  Any suggestions?  Probably just bpa, but I was thinking more along the lines of specific players.  I'm behind in my draft research this year 

I don't think Stern controls ESPN's mock lottery...

And he'll be out in February, regardless. Way before the real lottery. The Celtics AND Lakers getting the top two picks would be huge for the NBA, though. People still love them some Celtics/Lakers. Make it happen, Silver!

I know he doesn't control that lotto machine haha.  I was talking about the real one.  I'm sure that Stern could influence the outcome, maybe by 'suggesting' such a notion on his way out.

[D.o.s.]

He'll probably have a better chance of influencing it now, since he won't be the commish by the time the draft lottery rolls around.

[chambers]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

Why make a trade to be the third best team in the east during LeBrons prime?

exactly. danny blew up the team for a reason, to wait for lebrons prime to pass and develop talent in the meantime.

He blew the team up because we were too old. We've seen how correctly constructed and coached teams can beat the Heat (Mavs), and other teams with length and 3 point shooting can come very close (Spurs winning 3 games to 2 and blow the title, Indiana this season). Why would we be the third best team? We could be the best team with the right coaching and construction. Danny woll be calling every team in the league this off season asking about every top 20 player.

If we put 2 more stars with Rondo we have a great chance at beating the Heat.
You're basically both saying that it's a guarantee that Danny trades Rondo.
Id actually prefer that he trades Rondo for another top 7 pick on draft night but Danny wont have decided what he'll do yet.. he'll look at every option and decide which one gives us the best shot at a championship.
You act like Danny has never traded a lottery pick before...what did he do with our 5th pick in 2006?
What if we get the 6th pick this season and the Wolves offer us Kevin Love for the pick?
Don't get ahead of yourselves. Im a pro draft guy but I want to see all the options before rushing into a decision that will affect us for the next 10 seasons.

[LarBrd33]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.

To clarify what I mean by the pick having "certified gold" trade value.

If the season ended today, you'd have a 98% chance at a Top 6 pick where the Top 6 includes Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum.

You'd more than likely keep the pick and build your team around that player.  But if you decided NOT to keep the pick (and instead build around Rondo), that pick would be BY FAR the most valuable asset on the entire team.  If someone like KEvin Love suddenly becomes available, that Top 6 pick gets your foot in the door WITHOUT QUESTION. 

I've always thought the best case scenario for this team was keeping Rondo and landing a Top 6 pick.  Get this... the only reason I was gung-ho about trading Rondo was because I overestimated Rondo's ability.  I thought we'd be at the bottom of the standings when Rondo eventually returned in late January.  Right on cue, Rondo returned in late January and we were at the bottom of the standings.  I then feared that Rondo would play us out of a Top 6 pick.  Crazy, right?  Renowned "hater" LarBrd33 actually expected Rondo to add 10 wins to this team.    I figured we needed to trade him before he killed our shot at certified gold.  The rationalization was that Rondo would net assets. 

Rondo = A
Assets = B
 Top 6 PIck = C

A = B
C > A

C + B >> A

Simple math.  We'd be far better off with assets and a Top 6 pick vs Rajon Rondo.  Rondo's my favorite player on the team... it's just business.

Luckily, through 5 games, Rondo has looked pretty dreadful.  We are 1-5 since he returned.  Maybe we can keep Rondo.  The team seems to stink just as much with him (so far).  Granted, there's still a chance Rondo shakes off the rust and the team starts winning games.  That wouldn't be a good thing, imo.  Playing out of a top 6 pick would be detrimental to our long-term future.

I'd be happy with A + C. 

[playdream]

I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer

The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.

we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Danny will trade that pick in a heartbeat if the right player comes along.
We have Brad Stephens because he's a very smart coach and should adapt to the NBA very well. He should be able to coach a great team whilst developing assets...something that wasn't Docs forte.
If we keep Rondo it's most likely we do move that pick for another co star because at age 27-28 he's going to be waiting a while till that pick turns into a superstar.

He'll ultimately come to a crossroads-perhaps before this draft where he chooses one path or the other.
Something tells me he's not interested in developing more players and he wants to win now by using all the assets he's collected rather than hope these picks turn into studs.

unless we can get someone like 2007 ray allen with that pick (a star), i wouldnt trade it.

To clarify what I mean by the pick having "certified gold" trade value.

If the season ended today, you'd have a 98% chance at a Top 6 pick where the Top 6 includes Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid, Smart and Exum.

You'd more than likely keep the pick and build your team around that player.  But if you decided NOT to keep the pick (and instead build around Rondo), that pick would be BY FAR the most valuable asset on the entire team.  If someone like KEvin Love suddenly becomes available, that Top 6 pick gets your foot in the door WITHOUT QUESTION. 

I've always thought the best case scenario for this team was keeping Rondo and landing a Top 6 pick.  Get this... the only reason I was gung-ho about trading Rondo was because I overestimated Rondo's ability.  I thought we'd be at the bottom of the standings when Rondo eventually returned in late January.  Right on cue, Rondo returned in late January and we were at the bottom of the standings.  I then feared that Rondo would play us out of a Top 6 pick.  Crazy, right?  Renowned "hater" LarBrd33 actually expected Rondo to add 10 wins to this team.    I figured we needed to trade him before he killed our shot at certified gold.  The rationalization was that Rondo would net assets. 

Rondo = A
Assets = B
 Top 6 PIck = C

A = B
C > A

C + B >> A

Simple math.  We'd be far better off with assets and a Top 6 pick vs Rajon Rondo.  Rondo's my favorite player on the team... it's just business.

Luckily, through 5 games, Rondo has looked pretty dreadful.  We are 1-5 since he returned.  Maybe we can keep Rondo.  The team seems to stink just as much with him (so far).  Granted, there's still a chance Rondo shakes off the rust and the team starts winning games.  That wouldn't be a good thing, imo.  Playing out of a top 6 pick would be detrimental to our long-term future.

I'd be happy with A + C.

100% healthy Rondo may add us 5 more wins
Rusty Rondo will help the tank
i think it's all in Danny's plan

[Mr October]

Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.

[manl_lui]

Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.

well Crawford wasn't going to be in long term, the fact that he bought Stevens in, transformed Crawford from scrub to contributor was great. Once Rondo comes back and takes over, Crawford's value will drop instantly. It was the right move at the exact right time. And not to mention, we get a potential first round pick if the 76ers make the players, so more assets for a quicker rebuild.

As for 6-8 range - I am really hoping to grab Smarts. The dude is a competitor. I don't think Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will drop beyond 4 or even 5 spot, but I think Smart is going to be around 5-7. If he is available you have to grab him imo

[Mr October]

Oh yeah, i strongly believe Danny is guiding the tank. He moved Crawford at just the right time. Now the celtics have a rusty rondo, and undersized Pressey each shooting under 30% as they guide this crippled team.

As for the draft, i am getting excited about the guys in the 6-8 range. Aaron Gordon, Noah vonleh and willie cauley-stein look like they could become quality nba players. Meanwhile i am souring on Marcus smart big time. I just dont see any elite skill in him. I dont think he will ever be as good as rajon rondo.

In terms of drafting odds, there is just a big difference between being the 5th worst and say 8 or 9.the 5th worst team has 3-6 times the odds to land in the top 3. I still dont understand why the nba weighted the ping pong scale quite as heavily towards the bottom teams. They reward the tank. Being in the bottom 5 this year is a good place to be.

well Crawford wasn't going to be in long term, the fact that he bought Stevens in, transformed Crawford from scrub to contributor was great. Once Rondo comes back and takes over, Crawford's value will drop instantly. It was the right move at the exact right time. And not to mention, we get a potential first round pick if the 76ers make the players, so more assets for a quicker rebuild.

As for 6-8 range - I am really hoping to grab Smarts. The dude is a competitor. I don't think Embiid, Wiggins or Parker will drop beyond 4 or even 5 spot, but I think Smart is going to be around 5-7. If he is available you have to grab him imo

Flipping Crawford for a potential number one pick was a great move. I agree that he had no future as a Celtic at this time. Crawford might struggle, or at least come back to earth, if he is limited to short minutes. The team has too many role players. Ainge's next goal is probably going to be to thin out the power forward logjam. He is just waiting for the right deal.

If the celtics draft smart, i hope i am wrong about him. I like his competitiveness too. But he cant jump, cant shoot, and tries to out physical college players to get his points. I am not convinced that game will translate to the pros. I also haven't seen elite passing skills from him yet.