Because I don't believe Sullinger has 'David West' potential in him
Staying on the court
David West wasn't an uber-athletic guy, but he's 6'9" and has never weighed over about 240lbs. He was never a slow, overweight, lumbering oaf. he was also reasonably disciplined on defense, with a career average of 2.8 fouls committed per 36 minutes. As a result of all this, over his 11 year career he has had only three seasons in which he'd averaged less than 30 MPG. One season he averaged as much as 39 MPG.
Sullinger is 6'9" and weighs 280lbs. He's slow, he's immobile and half the time on the court he looks fatigued. Over his career he is averaging 5.1 fouls committed per 36 minutes. Because of a combination of his poor conditioning and lack of discipline on defense he has never averaged more than 27 MPG in a season thus far...and if he doesn't improve his conditioning (which he doesn't look to have done thus far) then he probably never will.
Offensive efficiency
David west has a career average of 49% from the field and aside from one single season (04-05 where he was injured) he has never shot below 47% on field goal attempts. He's averaged 3.5 free throws made per 36 minutes over his career. He has never attempted more than 27 three point shots in a season, a career average of about one attempt every three games and about 0.25 attempts per 36 minutes. He's taken most of this shots from midrange (he was at times considered one of the best midrange shooters in the game) and in the post.
Sullinger's career FG% so far is 44.4% from the field, which is a horrible number for a big man who's best talents are his rebounding and post game. Why so bad? For starters he has averaged only 2.1 free throw attempts made per 36 minutes so far over his career, so he's not as effective at scoring from the foul line.
The bigger problem though is that Sully has had absolutely horrendous shot selection this year - a chucker of epic proportions. Last season Sully attempted 5 three point shots all season and he finished with a FG% of 49%, showing he can be a very efficient scorer when he wants to be. However this season he has attempted a rediculous 146 three point attempts. That's an average of 2.5 attempts per game and 3.3 three point attempts per 36 minutes...and he has connected on only 24% of those attempts.
To put that into perspective lets take a look at the stats of Josh Smith, a guy who is infamous for his bad shot selection and 'chucking' mentality.
Over his career Josh Smith has averaged 1.6 three point attempts per 36 minutes. This season has been his his worst in that regard, with his current average of 3.3 three point attempts per 36 minutes being the highest of his career. Yes, that's right. Josh Smith - a guy notorious for chucking too many threes and having poor shot selection - in his most chuck-heavy season of his career, is putting up three point attempts at the same rate as Sully is this year.
The difference is that Smith can actually partially justify those attempts because:
1) He is playing the more perimeter oriented SF postition (not his choice - this is by default because of Monroe / Drummond)
2) He has shot an almost respectable 28.5% from three for his career...certainly not great, but enough to at least warrant sending a defender after him...unlike the especially woeful 24% that Sully is shooting.
Lets put this further into perspective.
Jeff Green has the highest number of three point attempts on the Celtics team, with 283 total attempts (or 4.9 attempts per 36 minutes). He is shooting a perfectly respectable 35% from three.
If we skip Jerryd Bayless (who has attempted 147 total threes, but only 64 as a Celtic) then Jarred Sullinger has the second highest number of three point attempts among all Celtic, with 146 total attempts...yet he's shooting them at a horribly disgraceful 24% from three.
Lets put things further into perspective.
Sully ranks 14th among all NBA power forwards in total three point attempts, yet he is the only player in the top 20 (for PF attempts) who shoots below 30%.
What does all of this tell us?
It tells us that Jarred Sullinger not only has the worst shot selection of any player on this Celtics roster, he has some of the worst shot selection of any player in this ENTIRE LEAGUE. He makes guys like Josh Smith and Jordan Crawford look like a godsend on offense. I have lost count of the number of times I have seen him jack up ill advised threes early in the shot clock with a defender 2 feet away.
So lets look at a summary of Sullinger right now:
Undersized for position - check
Poor conditioning - check
Lack of agility and footspeed - check
Foul prone - check
Poor defensive attitude - check (flagrant foul total is proof of this)
Poor offensive attitude - check (poor shot selection is proof of this)
Poor overall attitude - check (the fact that his dad had to give him a pep talk to improve his attitude is proof of this)
Inconsistent jump shot - check (still needs work here)
Struggles to score against length - check
Struggles to defend against quicker bigs - check
Stuggles to defend against taller bigs - check
So what exactly about Sullinger's game screams star potential? He's an elite rebounder (about 11.5 per 36 minutes), which is a valid point. He's an above average passer for a big man, but has a tendancy to force bad shots. He scores at a solid rate, but with poor efficiency. His IQ is high, but his mentality is questionable. He has good physical strength but lacks mobility, stamina and length.
If (and it's a BIG 'if') Sullinger makes astronomical leaps with his conditioning, improves his decision making, improves his attitude and develops a more consistent jump shot...then maybe he has a chance to become a borderline All-Star in the mould of a Carlos Boozer. Maybe. That is his celing. If he doesn't then he will slowly develop into some type of nasty combination of DeMarcus Cousins (attitude), Antoine Walker (shot selection) and an aged 280lb Shawn Kemp (conditioning). Not so appealing.
IMHO we should trade him now while his value is high, before opposing teams catch up and realise all of the above. I have much more confidence in Kelly Olynyk who IMHO has far higher upside thanks to being a better shooter, better passer, better ball handler, more agile, better conditoned, better size, better attitude, better shot selection, comaprable IQ, higher defensive upside (due to size and mobility) and almost as good rebounding (9 rebounds per 36 minutes) and post up game.
Yes, if Sullinger is truly a 'building block' of the future we are in big trouble. Kris Humprheys has been a FAR better player than Sullinger for us this year, and he's also been a harder working and has had a better attitude. He might not have the same overall skill level as Sullinger, but he understands his strenths and weaknesses and he plays within his abilities. He plays hard on defense, he does a solid job of protecting the rim (around 2 blocks per 36 minutes), he's an elite rebounder, he's a solid defender and he has the type of great veteran leadership (through his attitude and work ethic) that a young team needs.
Given the choice I would keep Olynyk, re-sign Humphreys, Re-sign Bradley and try to offload Sully for a decent defensive center (such as Okafor) and/or a mid-to-late lottery pick.
I wasn't the biggest fan of Sully his rookie year and am really not too sure what to make of him quite yet, but I gotta say...this post is way off. You keep referring to Sully's "career" and how he hasn't played over 27 MPG in a season yet. He isn't some five year vet. Sully has barely played 100 games in the NBA and is coming off of a back surgery, and you really think you can make all of those judgments?
I do agree with your list of complaints except for these:
Undersized for position - check
Poor defensive attitude - check (flagrant foul total is proof of this)
Poor offensive attitude - check (poor shot selection is proof of this)
Poor overall attitude - check (the fact that his dad had to give him a pep talk to improve his attitude is proof of this)
Inconsistent jump shot - check (still needs work here)
I feel like you just kept adding onto the list without adding anything significant to these points. Sully is not undersized at power forward, and that is most likely where he will be playing full time for the majority of his career.
I'm not sure how you can equate power defensive attitude with flagrant fouls, but sure?
Poor shot selection? I thought everyone knew the Sully 3's are 100% by Brad Stevens' design. He is trying to develop Sully into a viable three point shooter. First step of that process is to give Sully the green light on open 3's, which is what he has been taking for the most part. That is
not bad shot selection. This isn't Antoine Walker fading away from three with two players in his face. Sullinger needs a long range jumpshot if he wants to be a star. You are completely right about him struggling against length, which is exactly why him shooting three's this year is not poor shot selection. Especially the kind of three's he's been shooting.
Poor attitude evidenced by his dad giving him a talk? This is pretty meaningless to me. Just my opinion.
Inconsistent jump shot? Yeah, it needs work, but he needs to take them to make them. His jumpshot from 16-23 feet has improved by almost 10% since his rookie year. He's now hitting them at a 46% clip.
