But, there are seven in this year's draft. All we have to do is get one of them.
I guess you're being a bit sarcastic here but I do think there will be at least two franchise players out of this draft...not sure which they are yet.
Still, the problem is whether or not Rondo playing takes us out of the running for these guys..
And, we probably won't be sure which two they are until they've played at least three NBA seasons. At least three or four of the teams picking in the top six are bound to take a player who doesn't end up being a "franchise" player.
This, to me, gets to the crux of why "tanking" for a future franchise player isn't the best strategy for rebuilding. The draft is a risky business. I'd love to get a couple of really good players in this year's draft, and in the five to follow. The sheer volume of picks greatly increases our chances of landing a special player at some point over the next few years.
I'd prefer to see Rondo help take us out of the running for a top pick. I think there's more to be gained from beginning to develop a winner than there is by trying to lose our way to the "next franchise player."
I agree that it is a bit of crapshoot to get the next franchise player out of this draft class but I definitely trust Danny in that regard. Give him a top pick in this draft and I have confidence that he will draft the right player or trade to our advantage.
I'm not, however, sure how us not getting a pick due to Rondo putting us back into contention helps Danny. I don't see a low-win season hindering the development of Sully or AB or hindering the value of them as chips. I just don't see the long term value of this team playing their way out of the tankerzone. I just think that makes Danny's job that much harder because he will have fewer premium assets.
I think these are the advantages to winning:
I do believe playing for a club that is winning ball games makes our players more valuable assets. We hear phrases like, "the guy puts up good numbers on a crappy team, but can he really contribute to a winner?' all the time. I think that if our guys remain at their current level of production, but start to do so on a team that wins 50% of their games, they'll be likely to be viewed as more valuable assets around the league.
Not only do I believe that winning some games makes players more valuable as "assets", but I believe that it actually can make them better basketball players. I know this isn't a popular opinion around these parts, but I still believe that learning to play for wins on a competitive team early in ones career can be extremely helpful in development.
I also think that if we show that we can be a team that can become a contender with the right help--that we already have some of the pieces in place--that we will be a more attractive destination for good to great players around the league.
So, I do think there is something to be gained from winning from the perspective of building for the future.
I see some value there but not enough to out-weigh the value of a top 5 pick. I think the value and the career path of Sully, for instance, varies very little with a bottom 5 finish versus a limited playoff run this season.
Whereas a top 5 pick is a concrete, premium chip that Danny could turn into a franchise player....
Either way, getting back to my original point, it is threading a needle because there simply are not that many franchise players out there. Other than Carmelo and Love, I'm not even sure who is on the list. and further, without a top 5 pick AND Rondo, these guys might be un-gettable.
But how do we keep Rondo AND get a top 5 pick...