The 2014 draft class, revisited

[obnoxiousmime]

This is a straw man argument against tankers. You're taking the most overly optimistic opinions on this year's draft and appropriating them to fans who hope the team doesn't make the playoffs. Just because some draftniks are unrealistically hyping this year's draft (it's part of their job to do so) doesn't mean every pro-tanker shares such outsized expectations, nor does it mean tanking is not a valid strategy in years of average or even below average draft classes.

If you don't think tanking is a valid strategy any season the team has a shot at the 8th seed, just say that. Or, give an example of a draft class you would have felt comfortable tanking for based on your PRE-DRAFT estimation of the talent within.

[Celtics18]

This is a straw man argument against tankers. You're taking the most overly optimistic opinions on this year's draft and appropriating them to fans who hope the team doesn't make the playoffs. Just because some draftniks are unrealistically hyping this year's draft (it's part of their job to do so) doesn't mean every pro-tanker shares such outsized expectations, nor does it mean tanking is not a valid strategy in years of average or even below average draft classes.

If you don't think tanking is a valid strategy any season the team has a shot at the 8th seed, just say that. Or, give an example of a draft class you would have felt comfortable tanking for based on your PRE-DRAFT estimation of the talent within.

I am not appropriating any opinions to anyone.  I have read claims that there are potentially seven superstars in this draft on multiple occasions by multiple posters.  I am in no way claiming that everyone who is pro-tanking believes that. 

I'm just trying to insert a little realism into the conversation, and I'm attempting to present a little perspective. 

[BballTim]

This is a straw man argument against tankers. You're taking the most overly optimistic opinions on this year's draft and appropriating them to fans who hope the team doesn't make the playoffs. Just because some draftniks are unrealistically hyping this year's draft (it's part of their job to do so) doesn't mean every pro-tanker shares such outsized expectations, nor does it mean tanking is not a valid strategy in years of average or even below average draft classes.

If you don't think tanking is a valid strategy any season the team has a shot at the 8th seed, just say that. Or, give an example of a draft class you would have felt comfortable tanking for based on your PRE-DRAFT estimation of the talent within.

  Quite a few of the pro-tankers share that optimistic view of the draft, in fact you frequently see posts that claim all of the hype surrounding this draft class is reason to assume the predictions are accurate.

[Moranis]

I think the general consenses is that wiggins, Parker, embiid, randle, exum and smart all have The potential to be franchise player. That group is alot stronger then any top 6 since the Lebron, melo bosh draft.

The top six in the '03 draft were James, Wade, Anthony, Bosh, and then David West (picked outside the lottery), and then, I don't know . . .  Hinrich? Kaman? Korver? Mo Williams? Diaw?

The '03 draft is considered one of the best drafts in history along with '96 and '84.  Each of those drafts had at most four bona fide franchise level superstars. 

So, for the 2014 draft to have six (or seven . . . or more) franchise level talents, it would have to be not only on par with the previous greatest draft classes, but considerably better than any of them.

I just think some folks are setting their expectations a little too high for this year's crop.

2003 had 8 all stars - James, Wade, Bosh, Anthony, West and then Chris Kaman, Josh Howard, and Mo Williams.  Aside from Howard, TJ Ford's career was also destroyed by injuries.  Barbosa, Korver, Hinrich, Ridnour, Pietrus, Diaw, Pachulia, Collison, Bonner, and Blake were also all in the draft.  That is the reason the draft is thought of so highly, you have the 4 HOFers at the top in addition to the 5-10 starter level players, and the 10 or so very solid career back-up level players.  It was a great draft for that reason.

The 1985 draft had 10 all stars (including 4 HOFers) - Malone, Ewing, Dumars, Mullin, Schrempf, Michael Adams, AC Green, Terry Porter, Xavier McDaniel, and Charles Oakley.  In addition, Sabonis, Tisdale, Gerald Wilkins, Spud Webb, Hot Rod Williams, Benoit Benjamin, and Tyrone Corbin were in the draft.  Pretty solid draft that nobody ever mentions as an all time great draft, probably because 84 was so good at the top, but from top to bottom 85 was probably better.

[obnoxiousmime]

This is a straw man argument against tankers. You're taking the most overly optimistic opinions on this year's draft and appropriating them to fans who hope the team doesn't make the playoffs. Just because some draftniks are unrealistically hyping this year's draft (it's part of their job to do so) doesn't mean every pro-tanker shares such outsized expectations, nor does it mean tanking is not a valid strategy in years of average or even below average draft classes.

If you don't think tanking is a valid strategy any season the team has a shot at the 8th seed, just say that. Or, give an example of a draft class you would have felt comfortable tanking for based on your PRE-DRAFT estimation of the talent within.

I am not appropriating any opinions to anyone.  I have read claims that there are potentially seven superstars in this draft on multiple occasions by multiple posters.  I am in no way claiming that everyone who is pro-tanking believes that. 

I'm just trying to insert a little realism into the conversation, and I'm attempting to present a little perspective.

Right, but the "perspective" you offerred was a comparison to the odds of an eighth seed upsetting a one seed. Why bring that up if you weren't directing your message towards the pro-tank contingent, precisely the ones deathly afraid of making the playoffs, being swept, and getting stuck out of the lottery? It seems like an odd comparison to make if you were simply trying to point out that this draft class is overrated.

[TwinTower14]

Fine with me if they are gone.  I want Cauley-Stein anyway.

Smitty77

Cauley Stein = Fab Melo....no thanks

[Celtics18]

I think the general consenses is that wiggins, Parker, embiid, randle, exum and smart all have The potential to be franchise player. That group is alot stronger then any top 6 since the Lebron, melo bosh draft.

The top six in the '03 draft were James, Wade, Anthony, Bosh, and then David West (picked outside the lottery), and then, I don't know . . .  Hinrich? Kaman? Korver? Mo Williams? Diaw?

The '03 draft is considered one of the best drafts in history along with '96 and '84.  Each of those drafts had at most four bona fide franchise level superstars. 

So, for the 2014 draft to have six (or seven . . . or more) franchise level talents, it would have to be not only on par with the previous greatest draft classes, but considerably better than any of them.

I just think some folks are setting their expectations a little too high for this year's crop.

2003 had 8 all stars - James, Wade, Bosh, Anthony, West and then Chris Kaman, Josh Howard, and Mo Williams.  Aside from Howard, TJ Ford's career was also destroyed by injuries.  Barbosa, Korver, Hinrich, Ridnour, Pietrus, Diaw, Pachulia, Collison, Bonner, and Blake were also all in the draft.  That is the reason the draft is thought of so highly, you have the 4 HOFers at the top in addition to the 5-10 starter level players, and the 10 or so very solid career back-up level players.  It was a great draft for that reason.

The 1985 draft had 10 all stars (including 4 HOFers) - Malone, Ewing, Dumars, Mullin, Schrempf, Michael Adams, AC Green, Terry Porter, Xavier McDaniel, and Charles Oakley.  In addition, Sabonis, Tisdale, Gerald Wilkins, Spud Webb, Hot Rod Williams, Benoit Benjamin, and Tyrone Corbin were in the draft.  Pretty solid draft that nobody ever mentions as an all time great draft, probably because 84 was so good at the top, but from top to bottom 85 was probably better.

I agree that the '85 draft is often underrated when we talk about the greatest drafts of all time.  There were a lot of really good pros taken towards the latter stages of that draft. 

[LarBrd33]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

Last year, he didn't have a single player in the top 2 tiers.  This year, he has 8 in the top 2.  So your beef isn't with posters like myself who admittedly don't know jack squat about College ball.  Your beef is with experts who have been following the league for decades.  Go whine to them that they are crazy.

Go whine to half the league that is obviously mailing in the season.   Go tell em you "just don't see it".  Good luck with that.

[Celtics18]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

Last year, he didn't have a single player in the top 2 tiers.  This year, he has 8 in the top 2.  So your beef isn't with posters like myself who admittedly don't know jack squat about College ball.  Your beef is with experts who have been following the league for decades.  Go whine to them that they are crazy.

Go whine to half the league that is obviously mailing in the season.   Go tell em you "just don't see it".  Good luck with that.

How many players does Chad Ford have in that top tier?  How many does he have in the second tier?  I think you are misunderstanding me.  I'm not saying I don't believe this will be a strong draft, all I'm saying is that based on looking at draft history--and the fact that there has never been a draft that has yielded more than four top level superstars--that it's unlikely that there will be as many as seven such players from the 2014 draft.

I don't want to see my team tank for a guy who could potentially make one or two all star games.  You can find players like that outside the lottery, especially in a deep draft. 

[BballTim]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

  How accurate are those lists historically? His breaking down the draft into tiers isn't really interesting unless those predictions are generally accurate.

[LarBrd33]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

  How accurate are those lists historically? His breaking down the draft into tiers isn't really interesting unless those predictions are generally accurate.

He only started doing the tier thing fairly recently.  I believe tier 1 he had John Wall and Blake Griffin.  Surefire all-stars/franchise players.   In 2011, he had nobody in tier 1.  he put Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams in Tier 2.  "potential all-stars", but not locks.

Anthony Davis was the only player in Tier 1 during the 2012 draft.  He put Robinson, MGK, Beal , Barnes in Tier 2... we'll see what happens there.

Last year I don't think he had anyone in the top two tiers.


 

[More Banners]

A #2 gets you a Kevin Durant.

A #5 gets you Jeff Green.

[Nerf DPOY]

A #2 gets you a Kevin Durant.

A #5 gets you Jeff Green.

I want them to get as high a pick as reasonably possible but just cherry picking one draft is setting yourself up to get picked apart. A #2 gets you a Michael Beasley while a #5 gets you a Kevin Love.

That was easy.

[tyrone biggums]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

Last year, he didn't have a single player in the top 2 tiers.  This year, he has 8 in the top 2.  So your beef isn't with posters like myself who admittedly don't know jack squat about College ball.  Your beef is with experts who have been following the league for decades.  Go whine to them that they are crazy.

Go whine to half the league that is obviously mailing in the season.   Go tell em you "just don't see it".  Good luck with that.

Tanking is one avenue but say the Celtics end up with the 10th pick. You don't think they could get into the top 5 or top 3 with the bounty they received from the Nets or Clippers? As long as they are in striking distance if they don't get in the top 3 it will work out.

[Boris Badenov]

I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history.

Do you follow College ball every year?  Do you consider yourself an authority on the draft?  Because I'm not seeing any basis for what you're saying other than "you don't see it".

Seems plenty of experts "see it".   The top players in this draft look amazing.

Chad Ford, for instance... he breaks down the draft every year into tiers.  Potential superstar.  Potential All-star.  Potential Starter, etc.

  How accurate are those lists historically? His breaking down the draft into tiers isn't really interesting unless those predictions are generally accurate.

There's limited information since he's only released the full set since 2011.

But, I snooped around on the web and learned that since 2009 he has had only three players in tier 1: Anthony Davis, John Wall and Blake Griffin.

Since 2011 the tier 2 guys have been: Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, MKG, Bradley Beal and Thomas Robinson.

There are a few things to take out of this, in my view:
1. There are hits and misses like any ranking system - though the tier 1 guys have all turned out to be very good players.
2. It certainly doesn't appear that this tier system perennially *overrates* talent. In the last three drafts, he's had a total of 7 guys in tiers 1 and 2 and only two "1" rankings. Personally I think it's clear that Irving and Davis are the best players taken in those drafts, so the "1" rankings seem fairly spot on.
3. If you look at his full set of 9 guys in tiers 1/2 since 2011, that is pretty comparable to his supposed set of 8 guys this year. Out of that group, I would personally rate one guy - Davis - as a clear "franchise" player. Then you have 2-3 multiple all-star types (Irving, Wall and Griffin), and a bunch of other guys who are ranging from unknowns (Beal) to possible busts (DW, TRob).

Take it for what you will.