As more and more video of the frshman that were supposed to come out and litter this draft with talent comes out of them playing in a deeper talent pool of the NCAA and foreign players playing in upper pro basketball leagues, I think the draftniks that predict these draft are tempering earlier expectations and predictions.
I mean, you say that like it doesn't happen every year. Sure, some players start playing college ball and their flaws are found (ex: Muhammad not being to drive to his right), but a lot of times the draft analysts overanalyze "flaws" and bash players who, realistically, are far better than the reports would have you believe.
In my opinion -- and I know some people disagree and cite 2003 -- the best NBA draft of the past 30 years was the 1984 draft. This is in no way me saying that these players are going to be the '84 players' equals, but I'm just picking the language:
1.) The only sure-fire, no-one-doubted-him draft pick in that draft was Hakeem Olajuwon.
2.) Randle is being dismissed as an "undersized power forward who's a dame a dozen." So was Charles Barkley.
3.) Wiggins is "a dynamic guard with great athleticism who may not be 'the next Lebron' [i.e., an all-around player who dominates the game]." So was Michael Jordan; people had serious concerns about his shooting coming out of UNC.
4.) People are saying that Marcus Smart is "a decent athlete, but one who uses his brains more than sheer athleticism." That same tag was used to describe John Stockton.
There were a lot of other players in that draft who were long-term productive NBA players:
-Sam Bowie (who gets compared to Darko Milicic a lot but had a much more solid career; it's hard to look impressive when you're picked between Olajuwon and Jordon)
-Sam Perkins (who averaged at least 11 PPG for the first 12 years of his career)
-Alvin Robertson (who still holds the career Steals Per Game record in the NBA)
-Otis Thorpe (who was key in winning the Rockets their 2 NBA championships in 1994 and 1995)
-Kevin Willis (who was a double-double machine for most of his time with the Hawks)
-Jerome Kersey (a late second-round pick who was a key contributor for the Blazers for 1984-1995)
So, I mean, I think we need to take analysts' opinions with a grain of salt. A pick doesn't have to be a Hall of Famer to be a success or a franchise cornerstone. I'm pretty sure -- with the exception of maybe Kersey -- any one of the players I just listed would be welcome additions to any team in the league today.