Author Topic: The 2014 draft class, revisited  (Read 26260 times)

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The 2014 draft class, revisited
« on: January 01, 2014, 05:55:07 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I've been reading a lot of commentary suggesting that there are seven "franchise players" in the upcoming draft.  And, frankly, I believe that's crazy talk.

It seems to me that out of the players that are likely to declare for this year's draft, only Jabari Parker seems close to a sure thing to be a bona fide NBA superstar.  Wiggins will surely go in the top two regardless of how he performs in his short college career.  The early hype on him is simply too overwhelming for that not to be the case.  He could be the real thing, but he could also end up as a very good NBA role player.

Beyond that, from what I've seen, I just don't see it.  Randle is a dominant college ball player, but it seems to me that strong, undersized power forwards are, euphemistically speaking, a dime a dozen.  If he ends up being the next Zach Randolph, Jared Sullinger or David West that's a good score for somebody, but hardly a guy you build a franchise around. 

Folks have taken to calling Joel Embiid a "poor man's Hakeem Olajuwan."  If people can write that with a straight face, I don't feel guilty about referring to Kelly Olynyk as a potential poor man's Dirk Nowitzki.

Marcus Smart could as easily end up being the next Tyreke Evans as the next Dwayne Wade.

Has anyone really seen Dante Exum play in any meaningful games other than one High School all star game where he played well?  Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer.  I'm not saying Dante can't be a good pro, but I think the underground hype on him might end up being vastly overblown. 

Who's the seventh superstar?  Aaron Gordon?  I doubt it.

Now, I apologize for being so dismissive of this draft class.  It could turn out to be very good, possibly even one of the very best in history.  But, seven "franchise players"?  That's just unrealistic. 

The Celtics upsetting the Heat or the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs has higher odds of happening than there being seven superstars in the 2014 draft.  Consider that seven players at the level of "superstar" from the same draft has never happened before.  At least, an eighth seed knocking off a one seed has some precedence in history. 

DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2014, 06:00:04 PM »

Offline Birdman

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I agree! No one knows who will be good or not..the 15th player pick may be a Hall of Famer in the future, who knows..just got to get lucky! But who knows about these 7 players..couple will be great, couple be good, or some may be a bust
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2014, 06:21:48 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer

That is hilarious he played 6 min against us yesterday in the NBA.

http://www.nba.com/games/20131231/ATLBOS/gameinfo.html


Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2014, 06:48:10 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I agree! No one knows who will be good or not..the 15th player pick may be a Hall of Famer in the future, who knows..just got to get lucky! But who knows about these 7 players..couple will be great, couple be good, or some may be a bust


True......Milsap they said was taken 41 st. In his draft.........that guy Benson on he Bulls is good and he was barely drafted.


Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2014, 06:55:13 PM »

Offline celticmania

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Ive seen Exum play live... He is the real deal. Embiid is so smooth for a big and has the physical tools to be great. His iq of the game is unbelievable for someone who has only been playing For 2 and a half years. I think Wiggins has the tools and skills to be a superstar...all he needs is the killer instinct. Once he gets that, he will prove the doubters wrong. I think most people agree that Parker is going to bee great. I think those four guys are going to be franchise players. I think Smart can be an all-star and be a point guard for a good team for many years. I think Randle hasn't been used on the perimeter enough this year but he has good handle and can attack other power forwards off the drible in the league. However he will not be as dominant in the post. He has a chance of becoming a franchise player but will most likely  be an all-star and not in the franchise player category. Not sold on Gordon, Lavine, or Vonleh as top level players on the next level however i think they will be good pros. This draft is good for alot of reasons. I think the draft doesn't get enough credit for being a deep draft. I think Most of the 30 first round picks and probably more will become at least role player. There are also interesting international prospects like Exum, Saric, Hezonja (who i really like and think has all star Potential), Micic, Nurkic. There are also unique players like Saric, Kyle Anderson, Randle. All these guys and more have unique skill sets that most players in the  NBA dont have.  As a summary i think there are at least 3-6 franchise players, at least 5-9 all-stars, around 15 starters, and a bunch of guys that are going to be good role players.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2014, 07:16:01 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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As more and more video of the frshman that were supposed to come out and litter this draft with talent comes out of them playing in a deeper talent pool of the NCAA and foreign players playing in upper pro basketball leagues, I think the draftniks that predict these draft are tempering earlier expectations and predictions.

Simply put, the draft class will be darn good, maybe great, but not nearly as great or as deep as first predicted.

The Harrison twins have fallen out of the lottery and for one of them out of the first round due to their play thus far.

Mitch McGary is out for the season and having back surgery.

Wiggins is no longer the "next Lebron" and may not even go #1.

Randle is looking more and more like a ZBo or Millsap type than an all-time great.

And the list goes on of players who are being re-evaluated after the playing in college and being hyped beyond their total abilities for the better part of a year. Scouts and NBA execs are coming out tempering the excitement about what might be available in the draft. More and more television analysts are doing the same thing.

I think its time maybe those at Celticsblog also do the same thing. The draft class will be good and probably have a franchise player or two and some All-Stars but its not the greatest collection of young basketball talent to ever be unleashed upoon the NBA as some foolishly think.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2014, 08:59:49 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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I think the general consenses is that wiggins, Parker, embiid, randle, exum and smart all have The potential to be franchise player. That group is alot stronger then any top 6 since the Lebron, melo bosh draft.
Mavs
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Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2014, 09:14:15 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I actually think the ambiguity that has emerged about these guys could help the C's.

I'd guess we will be drafting in the 7-12 range. If the top 5-6 guys were unambiguously better than everyone else, there's no chance we could draft one.

If there's more uncertainty about some of these guys - like Exum, or Gordon, for example - I think the odds that one of them falls into our range are better. And at that point, they might still turn out to be very good - even better than some other guys who get picked higher.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2014, 09:37:25 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I actually think the ambiguity that has emerged about these guys could help the C's.

I'd guess we will be drafting in the 7-12 range. If the top 5-6 guys were unambiguously better than everyone else, there's no chance we could draft one.

If there's more uncertainty about some of these guys - like Exum, or Gordon, for example - I think the odds that one of them falls into our range are better. And at that point, they might still turn out to be very good - even better than some other guys who get picked higher.
Paul Pierce all over again!!!

So if a couple of guys have a really bad tourney or bad last tourney game, they could fall into our lap and be a Hall of Famer.

Been trying to tell anyone who would listen that you don't HAVE to have a top 3 pick to get a franchise cornerstone.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2014, 09:59:41 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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Fine with me if they are gone.  I want Cauley-Stein anyway.

Smitty77

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2014, 10:01:42 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I actually think the ambiguity that has emerged about these guys could help the C's.

I'd guess we will be drafting in the 7-12 range. If the top 5-6 guys were unambiguously better than everyone else, there's no chance we could draft one.

If there's more uncertainty about some of these guys - like Exum, or Gordon, for example - I think the odds that one of them falls into our range are better. And at that point, they might still turn out to be very good - even better than some other guys who get picked higher.
Paul Pierce all over again!!!

So if a couple of guys have a really bad tourney or bad last tourney game, they could fall into our lap and be a Hall of Famer.

Been trying to tell anyone who would listen that you don't HAVE to have a top 3 pick to get a franchise cornerstone.

Another thought: if the guys going 3-6 are now perceived to be risky picks rather than certain franchise players, it's more likely that Danny would be able to trade up into one of those slots, using some combination of our picks and players.

This is, I think, the "glass half full of green kool-aid" view.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2014, 10:08:29 PM »

Offline RebusRankin

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Franchise players in drafts:

84: Jordan, Olajuwon, Stockton, Barkley
96: Bryant, Iverson, Nash, Allen
03: James, Wade, Anthony, Bosh

I can see a potential of 4 but 7 is too high.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2014, 10:12:00 PM »

Offline BUTerrier

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Quote from: nickgenta
As more and more video of the frshman that were supposed to come out and litter this draft with talent comes out of them playing in a deeper talent pool of the NCAA and foreign players playing in upper pro basketball leagues, I think the draftniks that predict these draft are tempering earlier expectations and predictions.

I mean, you say that like it doesn't happen every year. Sure, some players start playing college ball and their flaws are found (ex: Muhammad not being to drive to his right), but a lot of times the draft analysts overanalyze "flaws" and bash players who, realistically, are far better than the reports would have you believe.

In my opinion -- and I know some people disagree and cite 2003 -- the best NBA draft of the past 30 years was the 1984 draft. This is in no way me saying that these players are going to be the '84 players' equals, but I'm just picking the language:
1.) The only sure-fire, no-one-doubted-him draft pick in that draft was Hakeem Olajuwon.
2.) Randle is being dismissed as an "undersized power forward who's a dame a dozen." So was Charles Barkley.
3.) Wiggins is "a dynamic guard with great athleticism who may not be 'the next Lebron' [i.e., an all-around player who dominates the game]." So was Michael Jordan; people had serious concerns about his shooting coming out of UNC.
4.) People are saying that Marcus Smart is "a decent athlete, but one who uses his brains more than sheer athleticism." That same tag was used to describe John Stockton.

There were a lot of other players in that draft who were long-term productive NBA players:
-Sam Bowie (who gets compared to Darko Milicic a lot but had a much more solid career; it's hard to look impressive when you're picked between Olajuwon and Jordon)
-Sam Perkins (who averaged at least 11 PPG for the first 12 years of his career)
-Alvin Robertson (who still holds the career Steals Per Game record in the NBA)
-Otis Thorpe (who was key in winning the Rockets their 2 NBA championships in 1994 and 1995)
-Kevin Willis (who was a double-double machine for most of his time with the Hawks)
-Jerome Kersey (a late second-round pick who was a key contributor for the Blazers for 1984-1995)

So, I mean, I think we need to take analysts' opinions with a grain of salt. A pick doesn't have to be a Hall of Famer to be a success or a franchise cornerstone. I'm pretty sure -- with the exception of maybe Kersey -- any one of the players I just listed would be welcome additions to any team in the league today.

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2014, 11:28:22 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Quote
Dennis Schroeder looked pretty good in that same all star game and is currently a D-leaguer

That is hilarious he played 6 min against us yesterday in the NBA.

http://www.nba.com/games/20131231/ATLBOS/gameinfo.html

Oops.  That's embarrassing.  I didn't realize that he had been recalled.  That's great news.  Hopefully, he can start getting more than six minutes a game soon. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: The 2014 draft class, revisited
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2014, 12:32:25 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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I think the general consenses is that wiggins, Parker, embiid, randle, exum and smart all have The potential to be franchise player. That group is alot stronger then any top 6 since the Lebron, melo bosh draft.

The top six in the '03 draft were James, Wade, Anthony, Bosh, and then David West (picked outside the lottery), and then, I don't know . . .  Hinrich? Kaman? Korver? Mo Williams? Diaw?

The '03 draft is considered one of the best drafts in history along with '96 and '84.  Each of those drafts had at most four bona fide franchise level superstars. 

So, for the 2014 draft to have six (or seven . . . or more) franchise level talents, it would have to be not only on par with the previous greatest draft classes, but considerably better than any of them.

I just think some folks are setting their expectations a little too high for this year's crop. 



DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson