If Lance Stephenson is worth 7-9 mil, how much for Bradley?

[Fafnir]

I just have trouble seeing a comparable guard who's undersized defensive role player who's getting 8 million dollars.

Do you think Thabo Sefolosha is getting 8 million dollars this offseason too? A team that offers more than the MLE is going to be gambling heavily on Bradley's "potential".

[More Banners]

Okay, here's what I do.

I run to Stephenson with the $10M TPE out of the gate.

Because...

IF we can fill at least one of the two huge voids on the team, then it's worth having Bradley enough to go a bit over the MLE to keep him, and offer a trade kicker and incentives to keep the cost and downside down.

But the spread ends up being anywhere between $5M and double.

I'm with DA on not being in a rush to commit too much to Bradley.  His a good player and a great specialist, but not a great player.

[Fafnir]

The TPE doesn't let us go sign Stephenson. The Pacers would have to agree to trade him to us, I think their demands for compensation would scuttle efforts to acquire him. Plus add in the tight window to exercise the TPE once the FA season starts?

I don't see it as a realistic option.

[kozlodoev]

I just have trouble seeing a comparable guard who's undersized defensive role player who's getting 8 million dollars.

Do you think Thabo Sefolosha is getting 8 million dollars this offseason too? A team that offers more than the MLE is going to be gambling heavily on Bradley's "potential".

You think Thabo Sefolosha, who's averaged 9 points per 36 minutes over the course of his career is a good comparison for Bradley?

Sefolosha is the guard equivalent of Reggie Evans. Bradley isn't.

[Robert24]

I dont think there's anyway that Indiana will just let him walk. Any way we could trade for him?

Also, would you rather have Bradley for $6 million per year on a 3 year deal or Stephenson for $9-10 million per year on a similar year deal?

[mgent]

I think because Bradley is hitting FA people are trying to forget that 8mil is just what a good SG is worth.  Same way there was a lot of delusion when Perk was hitting FA about an average starting C being worth 8mil. 

8 million dollars would put Bradley in the top 10 for a SG.

I think people are swallowing the 8 million dollar figure without looking at Bradley's production and what is paid around the league for shooting guards. If you add in PGs you'd be paying him in the top 25 range of the league.

Is Bradley a top 25 guard in the league?

1. I didn't go looking, but I did mention who got a 5yr 43mil deal.  He's probably a little better than Avery, but I believe 7mil of that was incentives which would likely be a part of Bradley's deal as well (most young players).  Afflalo also had a player option, which Bradley probably wouldn't get.

I don't really feel like searching, but you can if you think you can find a more similar player.  I believe Mayo got 8mil per, Reddick got 7mil, Korver and Henderson got 6mil per.  And for the record not one of those guys play a single minute of defense.

2. Very rarely are the top 25 players the same thing as the top 25 paid players.  That's a weird comparison to make, it's common knowledge that production does not exactly equal $ and potential plays into contracts pretty heavily.

3. For the record, Bradley is (among SGs) 15th in ppg, 10th in FG%, 9th in 3PT% (at least 1 made), 10th in rpg, 9th in spg, and basically unanimously 2nd in defense, so it's not really like his peers are embarrassing him (btw half of Bradley's #s are from playing PG and weighed down).  I guess my question for you is do you have a number for how many SGs you think should be making more than Bradley?

4. Now that Bradley's shot is falling and he's gained confidence for the first time in the league, it's shortsighted to close the book on him and assume his value isn't going to up as the season progresses.  Within the last 2-3 weeks Bradley looks like a completely different player and if he keeps it up then perspectives will change and his value will along with them.

5. The fact that he's ALREADY been offered 6mil per for 4 years by the Celtics obviously means something.  Again, his play has been much better since then, and I don't think he'd risk getting injured on the whim that some GM would overpay for him.  He and his agent have a far better idea of the market than you or I.

Also there are much more frivolous GMs out there than Ainge, so I don't see why using his number as a low figure is so ridiculous.  On the other hand, if you told me Danny Ainge offered the most money for a player out of all the other GMs, I'd find that somewhat shocking.

6. Last but not least, I never even said 8mil regarding Bradley, I actually stated outright in my post I thought he was only worth 6-7mil (basically what Ainge offered but without the team option in the 4th year).  The "8mil is just what a good SG is worth" was in reference to Stephenson and how people sometimes underestimate the value of one player to justify their estimate of a similar player.

[snively]

I keep coming back to Gerald Henderson as a comp.  Both athletic defenders, volume 2-point jump shooters with troubles extending their range, hard workers.

Henderson has the prototypical size AB lacks and a much better slashing/passing game, but AB is younger, can hit corner 3s and has a much better defensive reputation.

I think there are enough similarities to project a similar deal.  Something like 4/$26 mil with a player option on the last year.

[Fafnir]

I'd say 15 - 20 SG or combo guards should be paid more than Bradley. And that's paying him a premium based on his potential still.

He's a undersized but great defender who doesn't provide much on the other end other than moderate jump shooting. He doesn't get many rebounds, assists, or draw free throws. That severely limits his value.

If you think Bradley hitting 50% of his 3s for a month makes him a different player, then I'll just repeat what I said about OJ Mayo last season its not sustainable and lets see where he ends up.

Bradley isn't the type of talent that draws a ton of interest in RFA. Teams will assume Ainge will match MLE size deals and won't want to offer bigger than that. Then they typically don't even offer the MLE deal as they don't want to tie up their cap space.

[Fafnir]

I keep coming back to Gerald Henderson as a comp.  Both athletic defenders, volume 2-point jump shooters with troubles extending their range, hard workers.

Henderson has the prototypical size AB lacks and a much better slashing/passing game, but AB is younger, can hit corner 3s and has a much better defensive reputation.

I think there are enough similarities to project a similar deal.  Something like 4/$26 mil with a player option on the last year.

I don't get what people see in Henderson myself. Doesn't look to do anything all that well, just another SG in the league. The fact that he doesn't take or make 3s often means his value isn't all that high.

[mgent]

I just have trouble seeing a comparable guard who's undersized defensive role player who's getting 8 million dollars.

Do you think Thabo Sefolosha is getting 8 million dollars this offseason too? A team that offers more than the MLE is going to be gambling heavily on Bradley's "potential".

You do know Bradley is 23?  Comparing his market value to a 29 year old is borderline ridiculous, let alone one who has 1/5th of the offense.

See kozlodoev's list of players you get with the MLE.

Potential literally affects value, it's not just some invariable that GMs can gamble on if they want.  That's how we have guys like Eric Gordon with max contracts (for one of many examples).

[Who]

If Bradley was 6-5, I would have no problem seeing him get $7-8 million a year.

But at only 6 foot 2? As a starting SG? And with serious struggles when playing PG? As a defense first moderate offensive game combo guard? I think that price tag is a stretch. Low likelihood of happening in my opinion.

[snively]

I keep coming back to Gerald Henderson as a comp.  Both athletic defenders, volume 2-point jump shooters with troubles extending their range, hard workers.

Henderson has the prototypical size AB lacks and a much better slashing/passing game, but AB is younger, can hit corner 3s and has a much better defensive reputation.

I think there are enough similarities to project a similar deal.  Something like 4/$26 mil with a player option on the last year.

I don't get what people see in Henderson myself. Doesn't look to do anything all that well, just another SG in the league. The fact that he doesn't take or make 3s often means his value isn't all that high.

Yeah, I'm not a fan either.  Just pointing out the market.  Lack of reliable 3-point range hasn't put a huge dent in market value as long as the scoring volume is high enough.

Henderson, DeRozan, Stuckey, Fields - a number of non 3-point shooting 2-guards have gotten paid $6+ mil.

The problem with AB is that he's averaging 14ppg.  That ~15ppg threshold for young guys seems to have magic free agency properties.

[snively]

If Bradley was 6-5, I would have no problem seeing him get $7-8 million a year.

But at only 6 foot 2? As a starting SG? And with serious struggles when playing PG? As a defense first moderate offensive game combo guard? I think that price tag is a stretch. Low likelihood of happening in my opinion.

I'd love to believe this but I think size has less to do with it than output and accolades.  That Bradley has been starting for 2.5 years (including 2 playoff years), gained recognition on the all-D team, and is now putting up 14ppg with corner 3 range will mean a lot to somebody.

I'm worried someone will offer Bradley a George Hill type contract.

[kozlodoev]

If Bradley was 6-5, I would have no problem seeing him get $7-8 million a year.

But at only 6 foot 2? As a starting SG? And with serious struggles when playing PG? As a defense first moderate offensive game combo guard? I think that price tag is a stretch. Low likelihood of happening in my opinion.

Avery Bradley is not 6'2. He's 6'3 with a 6'7 wingspan and 8'3 standing reach. These measurements are in line with guys like Hinrich, Foye, Eric Gordon, Monta Ellis and even old friend Delonte West -- who have all done just fine playing the SG position.

[Who]

If Bradley was 6-5, I would have no problem seeing him get $7-8 million a year.

But at only 6 foot 2? As a starting SG? And with serious struggles when playing PG? As a defense first moderate offensive game combo guard? I think that price tag is a stretch. Low likelihood of happening in my opinion.

Avery Bradley is not 6'2. He's 6'3 with a 6'7 wingspan and 8'3 standing reach. These measurements are in line with guys like Hinrich, Foye, Eric Gordon, Monta Ellis and even old friend Delonte West -- who have all done just fine playing the SG position.

The only ones there that have gotten big contracts are scorers or guards like Hinrich who can play PG also. Bradley is different to those players.

Avery Bradley has more question marks about how he'll fit into a team because of his relatively unique skill-set. I really just do not see the market (number of suitors) being as big for him as for other players.