If Lance Stephenson is worth 7-9 mil, how much for Bradley?

[obnoxiousmime]

Recently Chris Mannix tweeted that league executives estimate Stephenson to be worth 7-9 million this offseason. That led me to wonder how much Bradley could be worth because I consider Stephenson to be a better overall player if you're not counting behavioral problems.

There is one difference in that Stephenson is an unrestricted FA and Bradley is restricted, which may put Bradley at a disadvantage.

Frankly I think a 7 million estimate is too low for Stephenson. There will definitely be a team willing to pay 9-10 million or more, even with his troubled history.

A nice number for Bradley would probably be 7 million. Personally I hope they can wrap him up for 6 but who knows what the market will be like? If he's going to get an 8 million or above offer from some desperate team I hope the Celtics can deal him because I don't feel he's worth that much.

Even though it would just be a couple million more per year, I don't think it's worth it to tie so much money on players who are more complementary types than superstars. Even if we don't have that theoretical superstar on the roster right now, we might be trading for one in the future. Will Bradley at 4 yrs/32 million be tradeable? What is Jeff Green's value on his current deal? These are questions I wish I had answers to now.

[BballTim]

  I think it's hard to comment on what happens to players like Bradley without knowing Danny's plan for the team. You hear a lot of comments about not tying up money in role players when you need stars, and that's true. But when we hope to get such a player matters. If it's relatively soon then it doesn't make sense to get rid of all of the role players in the mean time and begin the process of re-acquiring players of that level when we have a star in place. I'm not saying overpay Bradley but I don't necessarily think we should shy away from giving him a fair contract.

[chambers]

As this post was made, I was making another post about how we MUST do what we can to sign Lance stephenson to a 4 year deal.
The kid has incredible star potential and is consistently improving each year.
He's 6'5" tall with a 6'10" wingspan. He's basically unguardable at the 2 spot and leads Indiana in FG% and assists. He only takes 10 shots a game too because of how many scorers there are on Indiana's roster. His three point shooting is up over 37% and his jumpshot has improved each season to the point where he really doesn't have a weakness in his game. He can defend Lebron or Derrick Rose and outmuscle pretty much any guard that attempts to match up with him.

Once he gets to a position of 20 attempts and a higher usage % he's potentially the next break out star like Harden at the Shooting guard position.

We should go after this kid HARD, and being unrestricted and only 3 years in means he's only going to become more valuable after signing a 9 or 10 million dollar deal.
I'd love to move Jeff Green and use that money on Stephenson- make him a focal point of the offense.
He's got the swagger that Green doesn't have and has demonstrated consistent improvement and discipline as he's player more games in the NBA- he's just not getting enough shots on Indiana at the moment. I actually think they're doing this on purpose to try and keep his UFA price down. Once they ink him to a 4 or 5 year deal he'll become top dog with George on offense.

Avery Bradley's worth? If Stephenson is worth 4 years and
$40 million then Bradley IMO is worth about 4 years $26-28 million. Bradley's size and injury proneness come into play but he is improving.

[CFAN38]

Stephenson is a 9-10 mill a season guy

Avery is a 7-8 mill a season guy

[moiso]

Stephenson seems like he keeps improving by leaps and bounds.  His overall numbers look great.  I'm not sure why his PER is only 15.5.  I expected it to be around 19.

Bradley's PER is around 13.0 but I'm not surprised by that.

[Fafnir]

I still don't think Bradley gets 7-8 million per year. He's not getting a Jeff Green size deal because small for his position and he's a restricted free agent.

Now if he does get an offer sheet in might be in that range only because a team is trying to pry him away in RFA, but honestly I don't see the team with cap space that's going to commit that much money to Bradley.

[manl_lui]

I still don't think Bradley gets 7-8 million per year. He's not getting a Jeff Green size deal because small for his position and he's a restricted free agent.

Now if he does get an offer sheet in might be in that range only because a team is trying to pry him away in RFA, but honestly I don't see the team with cap space that's going to commit that much money to Bradley.

the way he is playing recently, I think he is worth anywhere between 6-8 mil per season. Anything more than that, I think we should think about trading him.

[Fafnir]

Stephenson seems like he keeps improving by leaps and bounds.  His overall numbers look great.  I'm not sure why his PER is only 15.5.  I expected it to be around 19.

Bradley's PER is around 13.0 but I'm not surprised by that.

Neither shoots enough to get their PER too high. Its very difficult to get a high PER without shooting a bunch or being a high rebounding garbage man with high eFG%.

ORTG has Stephenson as making a huge leap this year.

[Fafnir]

I still don't think Bradley gets 7-8 million per year. He's not getting a Jeff Green size deal because small for his position and he's a restricted free agent.

Now if he does get an offer sheet in might be in that range only because a team is trying to pry him away in RFA, but honestly I don't see the team with cap space that's going to commit that much money to Bradley.

the way he is playing recently, I think he is worth anywhere between 6-8 mil per season. Anything more than that, I think we should think about trading him.

He's hitting 53.8% of his 3s for the month of December, that's not a sustainable shooting percentage based on his past shooting prowess. He's not likely to continue at that high of a rate nor do I think anyone will pay him assumming he's suddenly become one of the best 3 point shooters in the league.

If he averages a good 40+% on his 3s for the season he'll still be a small guard, who doesn't get FTs, doesn't get assists, and has been sketchy overall at rebounding (though good in December)

[obnoxiousmime]

  I think it's hard to comment on what happens to players like Bradley without knowing Danny's plan for the team. You hear a lot of comments about not tying up money in role players when you need stars, and that's true. But when we hope to get such a player matters. If it's relatively soon then it doesn't make sense to get rid of all of the role players in the mean time and begin the process of re-acquiring players of that level when we have a star in place. I'm not saying overpay Bradley but I don't necessarily think we should shy away from giving him a fair contract.

Well, that's the question, right? What is "fair"?

If Bradley signs a deal that automatically makes him hard to deal, I would rather maintain flexibility.

Just as or more important than AAV is the number of years. GMs are loathe to take back long-term deals in any trade for their star. You have to have expirings, a young star on their rookie deal, and draft picks.

I just worry that with so many role players signing "fair" deals it limits our ability to create enough unfair deals. The CBA sets it up so that stars and first rounders on their rookie deals are massively underpaid. That means the middle class and overrated stars are often overpaid when you compare their actual contribution to winning games.

Green, Lee, and Bass are not technically overpaid but they're also not underpaid. That's why I'd rather not sign too many of those types to long-term deals. At least, not until our superstars are in place.

Stephenson is a 9-10 mill a season guy

Avery is a 7-8 mill a season guy

If that ends up being the case then goodbye Avery and hello Lance!

[slamtheking]

If AB continues to play like he's been playing, I could see him getting about 2.5 mill a year less than Stephenson.  He plays better D but he's smaller, injured more and not the same level of scorer as Stephenson.

[indeedproceed]

I still don't think Bradley gets 7-8 million per year. He's not getting a Jeff Green size deal because small for his position and he's a restricted free agent.

Now if he does get an offer sheet in might be in that range only because a team is trying to pry him away in RFA, but honestly I don't see the team with cap space that's going to commit that much money to Bradley.

If someone puts out a ~7 mil per offer sheet for Bradley I think Danny lets him walk.

[Moranis]

I can't see giving Bradley or Stephenson that sort of money on this team.  As such, I would try to trade Bradley during the season for someone I think makes more sense long term.

Maybe something like this:

Waiters, Bennett, Bynum, Jack

for

Green, Lee, Bass, Bradley, Bogans

Boston upgrades (imo) at SG with Waiters, gets a real PG in Jack (to start now and be the third guard when Rondo is back), and takes flyers on Bynum and Bennett.  Losing Green is tough, but given the rest of the trade I think it would be worth it. 

[BballTim]

I can't see giving Bradley or Stephenson that sort of money on this team.  As such, I would try to trade Bradley during the season for someone I think makes more sense long term.

Maybe something like this:

Waiters, Bennett, Bynum, Jack

for

Green, Lee, Bass, Bradley, Bogans

Boston upgrades (imo) at SG with Waiters, gets a real PG in Jack (to start now and be the third guard when Rondo is back), and takes flyers on Bynum and Bennett.  Losing Green is tough, but given the rest of the trade I think it would be worth it.

  You'd have to be really high on Bennet, I don't think Green/Lee/Bass/Bradley for Waiters/Jack is a good deal at all.

[Fafnir]

I can't see giving Bradley or Stephenson that sort of money on this team.  As such, I would try to trade Bradley during the season for someone I think makes more sense long term.

Maybe something like this:

Waiters, Bennett, Bynum, Jack

for

Green, Lee, Bass, Bradley, Bogans

Boston upgrades (imo) at SG with Waiters, gets a real PG in Jack (to start now and be the third guard when Rondo is back), and takes flyers on Bynum and Bennett.  Losing Green is tough, but given the rest of the trade I think it would be worth it.

I don't think much of Waiters or Bennett so I wouldn't want to do this deal. Waiters has played a lot worse than Bradley this year and is only a year younger.

Bennett is looking like a a complete bust right now, a tweener who is out of shape and has health issues hurting his attempts to get fit.