If the Season Ended Today

[j804]

just looked at the standings and schedule for the next 2 days.   not that I'm rooting for the C's to lose, especially to the Lakers, but if the C's lose in the next 2 games against the Lakers and Kings, they 'climb' to 4th worst record. 

if they lose a couple of days later in Utah, that would help put some space between them and Utah

I think for those hoping for the worst record possible this year, 4th is about has bad as you can get.  no way we'll surpass Mil, Phil and Orl in terms of record.

I wonder where the lotto balls have fallen in the past handful of years for number 4 teams in the standings

[rondohondo]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

No , we need a top 3 (or bottom 3 ) finish . If you finish in the bottom 3 , you are guaranteed of falling no lower than 4th in the draft .

So you would be guaranteed one of

Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Exum

Step up the tank Danny  we need to catch Orlando and gain distance from LA, Sac, Utah

[Mr October]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

The sixers have tanked their roster so thoroughly, that i think they will be tanking for the next 3 years. Can you imagine paying for season tickets to a 20 win team for 3 straight years?

Add that on top of the mediocre ball played since the Allen Iverson era. They have managed to win 50 games once since 1990.

[Mr October]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

No , we need a top 3 (or bottom 3 ) finish . If you finish in the bottom 3 , you are guaranteed of falling no lower than 4th in the draft .

So you would be guaranteed one of

Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Exum

Step up the tank Danny  we need to catch Orlando and gain distance from LA, Sac, Utah

Orlando is terrible on the road. It will take a while, but i think orlando has enough winnable games at home to move ahead of boston by the end of March. April is the wild card month. How bad will each team tank it up, even the better lotto teams when they know they are eliminated from the playoffs?

There will be a glut of teams in that 24-29 win range when it is all said and done.

[Fafnir]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

No , we need a top 3 (or bottom 3 ) finish . If you finish in the bottom 3 , you are guaranteed of falling no lower than 4th in the draft .

That's not true. Only the team with the worst record in the league is guaranteed the fourth pick or better.

Remember the C's had the second worse record in the league to Memphis in 06-07. The C's had 3 teams jump them and they dropped 3 slots to 5th.

Every team that's higher than the bottom 3 ping pong balls in the lottery can possibly drop 3 draft slots if they get jumped 3 times.

[saltlover]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

No , we need a top 3 (or bottom 3 ) finish . If you finish in the bottom 3 , you are guaranteed of falling no lower than 4th in the draft .

So you would be guaranteed one of

Embiid
Wiggins
Parker
Exum

Step up the tank Danny  we need to catch Orlando and gain distance from LA, Sac, Utah

This is simply false.  You are guaranteed with a pick no worse than three below your current slot.  So worst record is guaranteed top 4, 2nd worst top 5, 3rd worst top 6, and so on.  There is no way we're finishing below the Bucks and 6ers, so we'll have to cross our fingers during the lottery.

[footey]

i'd be very happy with the 4th worst record.  Even though theoretically we could end up with the 7th pick, in most scenarios we end up with no worse than the 6th (i.e., extremely long odds for all top 3 slots taken by teams finishing outside the bottom 4). Danny has so many options with any pick in the top 6 who is not Embiid (whom he probably would not consider trading, given his potential franchise stature).  He could trade up, trade down, stay put, or trade the pick for a great player.  The options are just awesome, and we all know that Danny will explore each and every one of them.    I don't always like his moves (hated the Telfair trade for the 6 (?) pick, but overall think he is the smartest guy on the phone.

[rondohondo]

Looking through the Celtics' remaining schedule, I'm  not sure the C's will end up with more than 25 wins.

Only two games that are most likely wins (against Tankadelphia).  A lot of games against teams currently in the playoff picture, or angling to get there.

Still won't get ahead of Tankadelph or Milwaukee, but the Celtics could theoretically pull ahead of Orlando.

good call. lets face it on philly, they have no shame or sense of embarrassment at this stage. they have consciously and with great determination remade themselves into a truly formidable tanker. i am impressed, in a way.

4th place is fine and i would have no complaints. but i would be extra, extra, really, deally, happy if they could sneak into the top three....either by tanking or by luck. since the 4th place in the draft order has a 37.8% chance of moving into the top three stops it is not out of the question.

No , we need a top 3 (or bottom 3 ) finish . If you finish in the bottom 3 , you are guaranteed of falling no lower than 4th in the draft .

That's not true. Only the team with the worst record in the league is guaranteed the fourth pick or better.

Remember the C's had the second worse record in the league to Memphis in 06-07. The C's had 3 teams jump them and they dropped 3 slots to 5th.

Every team that's higher than the bottom 3 ping pong balls in the lottery can possibly drop 3 draft slots if they get jumped 3 times.

well that's what I get for listening to WEEI, I should have known better . Never again

[LarBrd33]

just looked at the standings and schedule for the next 2 days.   not that I'm rooting for the C's to lose, especially to the Lakers, but if the C's lose in the next 2 games against the Lakers and Kings, they 'climb' to 4th worst record. 

if they lose a couple of days later in Utah, that would help put some space between them and Utah

I think for those hoping for the worst record possible this year, 4th is about has bad as you can get.  no way we'll surpass Mil, Phil and Orl in terms of record.

I wonder where the lotto balls have fallen in the past handful of years for number 4 teams in the standings

I posted the entire history of odds earlier in this thread:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=68775.msg1594513#msg1594513

The team with the 4th worst record has picked in the top 3 a total of 12 times since 1985.  It happens. 

[LarBrd33]

I'll just repost it:

Only teams that miss the playoffs (14 teams) enter the lotto.  Only the top 3 picks are determined by lotto.  Here's the top 3 picks over the years and the odds of the team that ended up with the pick:

1985

Pick 1 - 3rd best odds
Pick 2 - 1st best odds
Pick 3 - 5th best odds

1986

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

1987

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1988

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 7th
Pick 3 - 6th

1989

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 4th

1990

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 10th
Pick 3 - 2nd

1991

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 3rd

1992

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 4th

1993

Pick 1 - 11th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 7th

1994

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

1995

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

1996

Pick 1 - 2nd
Pick 2 - 3rd
Pick 3 - 1st

1997

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd (Boston/Billups)

1998

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 1st

1999

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 13th

2000

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 4th
Pick 3 - 1st

2001

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 8th
Pick 3 - 5th

2002

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 1st

2003

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2004

Pick 1 - 1st
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 2nd

2005

Pick 1 - 6th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 4th

2006

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 2nd
Pick 3 - 3rd

2007

Pick 1 - 7th
Pick 2 - 5th
Pick 3 - 4th

2008

Pick 1 - 9th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 3rd

2009

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 4th

2010

Pick 1 - 5th
Pick 2 - 6th
Pick 3 - 1st

2011

Pick 1 - 8th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 6th

2012

Pick 1 - 4th
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 2nd

2013

Pick 1 - 3rd
Pick 2 - 1st
Pick 3 - 8th

Note that every once in a while a team outside of the Top 5 sneaks in. I bolded those instances.

[LarBrd33]

Worst-case scenario happened in 1993... Top 3 were

#1 - 11th best best odds
#2 - 7th best odds
#3 - 5th best odds

which means the next 4 were

#4 - 1st best odds
#5 - 2nd best odds
#6 - 3rd best odds
#7 - 4th best odds

Particularly rough, because there were 3 multi all-stars at the top of the draft... Chris Webber, Anfernee Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn... The team that pick 4th took Mashburn.  The team that picked 7th took Bobby Hurley.    Of course, the team that picked 8th ended up with Vin Baker... another guy who went on to be a multi all-star.

I guess a bit a luck is always involved.

Allan Houston went #11.  Sam Cassell went #24. 

Who knows... 2014 is supposed to be an epic draft.  The better our odds, the better we'll be... but really who knows what the flip will happen here.

[LarBrd33]

Worst-case scenario happened in 1993... Top 3 were

#1 - 11th best best odds
#2 - 7th best odds
#3 - 5th best odds

which means the next 4 were

#4 - 1st best odds
#5 - 2nd best odds
#6 - 3rd best odds
#7 - 4th best odds

Particularly rough, because there were 3 multi all-stars at the top of the draft... Chris Webber, Anfernee Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn... The team that pick 4th took Mashburn.  The team that picked 7th took Bobby Hurley.    Of course, the team that picked 8th ended up with Vin Baker... another guy who went on to be a multi all-star.

I guess a bit a luck is always involved.

Allan Houston went #11.  Sam Cassell went #24. 

Who knows... 2014 is supposed to be an epic draft.  The better our odds, the better we'll be... but really who knows what the flip will happen here.

Also fun to imagine what might happen if history repeated itself and we had a rehash of 1993.

Say the season ended today.

#1 pick goes to 11th best odds... that's the Pelicans.  Anthony Davis gets a superstar running mate. (pick goes to Philly if it falls outside top 5)... much like in 1993 they already have a star big man... so they probably take Embiid (Webber) and then trade down to #3 (Jabari)...

#2 pick goes to 7th best odds... That's the Jazz.  Andrew Wiggins joins Favors, Kanter, Burks, Burke, etc.

#3 pick goes to 5th best odds... That's the Lakers.  *Barf* *barf* *barf*...  They trade up to get Embiid.  Then they use their boatloads of cap space to sign LeBron James in 2014 and Kevin Love in 2015.

Boston picks 7th... takes some Bobby Hurley-esque bum.  Ladies and gentlemen, welcome Doug McDermott to your Boston Celtics.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I wouldn't worry about this.  We could end up with 10 more wins for all I know and we're certainly not supplanting the 6ers or Bucks for the 1st or 2nd worst record.  If anything, it's heartening to see that the 3rd and 4th worst records win the lottery pretty consistently. 

I keep thinking that we will draft one of Parker/Wiggins and the Lakers will draft the other one