If the Season Ended Today

[kozlodoev]

I dont like losing, and watching this team this year isnt exactly a joy. BUT looking at the big picture its better to lose now and get a top 5 pick.

How about lose now and _not_ get a top 5 pick?

[slamtheking]

tie for 4th worst record and only a 1/2 game up on Philly with the 3rd worst.

[truthteller]

I see us winning tops 15-17 games the rest of the season leaving us at 30 wins as the best record we can have. That's also with the roster we have now.

If we win 30 games this year, and we take the records at the end of season last year as a comparasin, we would finish with the 9th most lottery balls. 

[LarBrd33]

tie for 4th worst record and only a 1/2 game up on Philly with the 3rd worst.

Atlanta keeps hanging onto that 3rd seed (#20 pick).  Brooklyn is now sitting with pick #16.  But both of those teams could still theoretically fall out of the playoffs.  Still plenty of games to be played.

[Smokeeye123]

tie for 4th worst record and only a 1/2 game up on Philly with the 3rd worst.

Atlanta keeps hanging onto that 3rd seed (#20 pick).  Brooklyn is now sitting with pick #16.  But both of those teams could still theoretically fall out of the playoffs.  Still plenty of games to be played.

I think the best to hope for is that we get a mid to late pick in the teens from Atlanta. There should still be decent players available.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

tie for 4th worst record and only a 1/2 game up on Philly with the 3rd worst.

Atlanta keeps hanging onto that 3rd seed (#20 pick).  Brooklyn is now sitting with pick #16.  But both of those teams could still theoretically fall out of the playoffs.  Still plenty of games to be played.

I think the best to hope for is that we get a mid to late pick in the teens from Atlanta. There should still be decent players available.

we can only hope.

[chambers]

Is this the high water mark?

We currently sit 13-25 going into tonight's game against the Rockets.  We could be 13-26 after that, sitting in the 5th worst record and thus the 5th best lottery odds.

That said, we will still have 43 more games remaining.

And Rondo should be back within the next week or two.

On paper, the worst stretches of the season are over.  November and the first half of January always loomed as by far the roughest parts of the season.

Of the 43 remaining games, I count around 26 that look 'winnable', given the teams as they are right now.

We have slightly more home games than road games (21-22) in the remaining schedule and a lot of games against teams with similarly miserable (or worse) records.   The remaining extended road trip is a late February 4 game swing against the Suns, Lakers, Kings & Jazz.

Now, this is not to say we will win all 26 of those 'winnable' games.  But we should win a fairly large chunk of them.  And we might win a surprise win or two over the 'scheduled losses' remaining.

Beating a .500 pace through the remaining part of the schedule is 22 games.  It may seem shocking, but that's not really all that unreasonable, when you look at the schedule closely.

Thus, over the remainder of the season, don't be surprised if our lottery position "gets worse".

Now, obviously, everything could change dramatically by the time we get through the trading deadline.     If Danny trades away talent to make us worse, then that could maintain or even make our 'lottery standing' better.   If he trades to make us stronger (say, revives the "Bass+stuff for Asik" trade), then maybe we can do even better than .500.

And obviously, injury, as always, can totally wipe out a season.

If things remain the same (no major trade or injury), I still see this team winning around 36 games, which was my original off-season projection.

That will likely leave us right on the razor's edge of either in or out of the playoffs.

I'd love to see this team win 35 games.  Whether that's good enough for the playoff or the lottery doesn't really matter to me at this point. 

I'm all about rooting for the 2013-2014 Celtics right now. 

The future will come, one way or another.

I wonder how many Bucks fans have Been saying that for the last 10 years.
The future depends on how we mould it. You can't just leave it in the hands of the leprechauns and cross your fingers. You've got to be
proactive at influencing that future in a positive manner to give yourself the best chance at a positive outcome.

[Celtics18]

Is this the high water mark?

We currently sit 13-25 going into tonight's game against the Rockets.  We could be 13-26 after that, sitting in the 5th worst record and thus the 5th best lottery odds.

That said, we will still have 43 more games remaining.

And Rondo should be back within the next week or two.

On paper, the worst stretches of the season are over.  November and the first half of January always loomed as by far the roughest parts of the season.

Of the 43 remaining games, I count around 26 that look 'winnable', given the teams as they are right now.

We have slightly more home games than road games (21-22) in the remaining schedule and a lot of games against teams with similarly miserable (or worse) records.   The remaining extended road trip is a late February 4 game swing against the Suns, Lakers, Kings & Jazz.

Now, this is not to say we will win all 26 of those 'winnable' games.  But we should win a fairly large chunk of them.  And we might win a surprise win or two over the 'scheduled losses' remaining.

Beating a .500 pace through the remaining part of the schedule is 22 games.  It may seem shocking, but that's not really all that unreasonable, when you look at the schedule closely.

Thus, over the remainder of the season, don't be surprised if our lottery position "gets worse".

Now, obviously, everything could change dramatically by the time we get through the trading deadline.     If Danny trades away talent to make us worse, then that could maintain or even make our 'lottery standing' better.   If he trades to make us stronger (say, revives the "Bass+stuff for Asik" trade), then maybe we can do even better than .500.

And obviously, injury, as always, can totally wipe out a season.

If things remain the same (no major trade or injury), I still see this team winning around 36 games, which was my original off-season projection.

That will likely leave us right on the razor's edge of either in or out of the playoffs.

I'd love to see this team win 35 games.  Whether that's good enough for the playoff or the lottery doesn't really matter to me at this point. 

I'm all about rooting for the 2013-2014 Celtics right now. 

The future will come, one way or another.

I wonder how many Bucks fans have Been saying that for the last 10 years.
The future depends on how we mould it. You can't just leave it in the hands of the leprechauns and cross your fingers. You've got to be
proactive at influencing that future in a positive manner to give yourself the best chance at a positive outcome.

I agree.  I trust Danny Ainge to be pro-actively trying to mold this team in a positive manner with an eye towards the future.  I see many signs that he's actively working towards those ends. 

I'm still hoping that the 2013-2014 Celtics can start to win some games at some point.  I wouldn't see it as sacrificing the future. 

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

ok someone update us? where are we now? I don't feel like looking. 

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

bump.

[Gari]

By now we are having the 5th worst record

[BleedGreen1989]

By now we are having the 5th worst record

Which is dumb.

We've lost 13 of 15 and STILL only have the 5th worst record.

Everybody else really needs to stop sucking!

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

By now we are having the 5th worst record

Which is dumb.

We've lost 13 of 15 and STILL only have the 5th worst record.

Everybody else really needs to stop sucking!

good point. we should be at the bottom with our record.

[LarBrd33]

How about a post-deadline proper update.

February 20th, 6:51PM Eastern - If the season ended today

#1 - Boston would have the 6th best odds in the draft.  Not bad.

#2 - Oh look at that... as expected, Brooklyn is now a playoff team and Atlanta is falling out.  Atlanta would likely keep their own pick (currently projected #16).   We'd get Brooklyn's pick (currently projected #17)

#3 - Lakers would have the 5th best odds in the draft.  Lame.  Plus they have cap space to add a max player this summer.  Hello LeBron, Kobe and Embiid.

.. that's all that really matters.

Things of note:

#1 - Cavs have won 6 in a row.  Atlanta has the 7th seed, but they could fall out of the playoffs if the Cavs continue to rise.  Unfortunately, it's unlikely that both Brooklyn and Atlanta fall out of the playoffs.


#2 - There is currently only one above .500 team in the WEst projected to miss the playoffs.  Memphis is 30-23 and would currently have the 14th best odds in the lotto if the season ended.  Meanwhile the Bobcats have a 25-30 record and would pick #15.  Stuff has sorta kinda evened out a bit.  Timberwolves and Nuggets both have better records than the Bobcats, but they are still below .500 so whatever.

[PhoSita]

As long as that ATL / BRK picks stays in the 15-18 range I'll be happy. 

Good chance that a nice talent like McDermott / Young / Hood / Selden / Cauley-Stein slips into that range.