Theory of DA's drafting strategy in the 2013 Draft preparing for 2014 Draft

[jyyzzoel]

I have this idea about why DA moved up to select Kelly Olynyk at #13 in the 2013 NBA Draft.  I think DA did it because he wants to move up in the 2014 NBA Draft, and use KO to do so.

Olynyk isn't a great player.  DA knew this when he selected him.  In the introductory press conference he referred to KO as a complementary player.  But KO is relatively speaking a finished product. 

He is 22 years old, so when he did get into the NBA he would have an immediate impact - not that he has exactly - but if by the end of the season he does start putting up 12 points and 5 rebounds, and ends up being one of the top eight or nine rookies of this year (right now he's on #10 of the Rookie Ladder on NBA.com) in terms of production rather than potential, I think DA will try to move KO and a pick to move up and snatch a player who is better than KO, who falls in the 2014 draft.  Eg: Willie Cauley-Stein.

What do you think?  KO and a #20 pick - how far up the board does that get you?

[LooseCannon]

Olynyk is not a finished product.  He's a guard who had a late growth spurt and is still learning to be a big man.

Ainge wants a power forward who can shoot threes.  Ainge believes Olynyk has a shot at becoming that player.

That's my theory.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I doubt it gets us far enough to make a difference in the quality of player we draft never mind its unlikely anybody wants to trade down in this particular draft.

[Celtics4ever]

I think he always takes a guy who can play who others see fault with.  If they pan out you look like a genius if not its not so bad.   Low picks and he takes flawed guys with low expectations if they well they give better trade value for where they were picked and are cheaper.

[nickagneta]

Here's my theory on why Danny traded up to get Olynyk:

He had Olynyk rated very high amongst last year's draft players and when he saw, through due diligence, that he had an opportunity to move up and grab him at a position lower than what Danny valued his draft position to be, he took it.

The draft is always about maximizing value. That's what I think Danny was doing trading up to get Olynyk. He may trade him at the deadline or during the draft or next summer or sometime in the future, but my guess is it will be to improve the overall team rather than to just do better in another draft.

[Moranis]

I agree with Nick, but I am sill disappointed Ainge didn't take a flyer on Giannis Antetokounmpo.  I really thought that was who he was trading up to draft. 

[Bankshot]

Here's my theory on why Danny traded up to get Olynyk:

He had Olynyk rated very high amongst last year's draft players and when he saw, through due diligence, that he had an opportunity to move up and grab him at a position lower than what Danny valued his draft position to be, he took it.

The draft is always about maximizing value. That's what I think Danny was doing trading up to get Olynyk. He may trade him at the deadline or during the draft or next summer or sometime in the future, but my guess is it will be to improve the overall team rather than to just do better in another draft.

This is my take as well.

[nickagneta]

I agree with Nick, but I am sill disappointed Ainge didn't take a flyer on Giannis Antetokounmpo.  I really thought that was who he was trading up to draft.

When the trade was first rumored to be happening Michael Carter Williams was still on the board and I was hoping he was going to fall and be the player Danny picked and then right after that Stern went to the podium and announced MCW being drafted. At that point I really didn't care who he was moving up to get so long as it wasn't the "Great White Hope" Kelly Olynyk and then, sure enough, that's who he took.

KO has been better than I thought but not a whole lot better and I am terribly afraid that the player we see now is the player he will always be: poor shooter, horrid defender, easily moved player in the low post due to lack of body strength, hustle guy that can grabs a few rebounds. I hope not but that's what I am afraid of.

[D.o.s.]

Ainge wants a power forward who can shoot threes.  Ainge believes Olynyk has a shot at becoming that player.

That's my theory.

I'd agree with that.

KO has been better than I thought but not a whole lot better and I am terribly afraid that the player we see now is the player he will always be: poor shooter, horrid defender, easily moved player in the low post due to lack of body strength, hustle guy that can grabs a few rebounds. I hope not but that's what I am afraid of.

I'd also agree with that. I'm not very high on Olynyk.

[Moranis]

And for the record, Sullinger is and always will be a much better outside shooter than Olynyk, in addition to being just better virtually everywhere else.  Now granted Sullinger was injured, but it just seemed like an odd selection and still does given Sullinger being on the roster.  It looks like Boston really missed out on Giannis.  He always had the potential to be something special, while Olynyk is what is he is always going to be.

[Sketch5]

Utah was high on KO during the draft workouts. And from the sound of it, they don't like the Favors/Kanter combo because they can't stretch the floor.

Maybe first thoughts were for Burk to get a good back up for Rondo, and maybe even a starter after Rondo's contract is up.

Second was maybe steal away Kanter from Utah, not likley and would take a nice package to do that.

Third, with the hiring of Stevens, maybe Gordon is the new target, move at the deadline or a sign and trade at draft.

Fourth, He just want to get a guy who can pick and pop like KG did with Rondo. This is the most likely reason, and he's had a rough go with the planters in the summer and then the ankle sprain. But the last game he's looked good, needs to look for his shot more.

[aingeforthree]

I have this idea about why DA moved up to select Kelly Olynyk at #13 in the 2013 NBA Draft.  I think DA did it because he wants to move up in the 2014 NBA Draft, and use KO to do so.

Olynyk isn't a great player.  DA knew this when he selected him.  In the introductory press conference he referred to KO as a complementary player.  But KO is relatively speaking a finished product. 

He is 22 years old, so when he did get into the NBA he would have an immediate impact - not that he has exactly - but if by the end of the season he does start putting up 12 points and 5 rebounds, and ends up being one of the top eight or nine rookies of this year (right now he's on #10 of the Rookie Ladder on NBA.com) in terms of production rather than potential, I think DA will try to move KO and a pick to move up and snatch a player who is better than KO, who falls in the 2014 draft.  Eg: Willie Cauley-Stein.

What do you think?  KO and a #20 pick - how far up the board does that get you?

I find it hard to believe he'd pull something like this.  He moved up in the draft because he thought Olynyk was worth the price to do so.  It wasn't because he was getting an immediate all star, it was because he was getting a talented big who would put in the work needed to succeed at this level.

Olynyk has the tools to be solid in this league. If the works put in, maybe he becomes even more than that.  It was a great pick all things considered.

[Jailan34]

Olynk has been okay so far, I was hoping for slightly more but hes only a rookie. What happens in this next draft is very important for the future of our team though.

If we stand pat with or picks, I'm afraid this team is going to be caught in the middle for two years running, which isn't going to help anyone. Danny's going to have to make some serious moves and get this team some talent.

Make a trade to win now or package assets and move up in the draft, I think its clear he has to do something.

I'd rather not wait through two mediocre seasons for him to do it.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Olynk has been okay so far, I was hoping for slightly more but hes only a rookie. What happens in this next draft is very important for the future of our team though.

If we stand pat with or picks, I'm afraid this team is going to be caught in the middle for two years running, which isn't going to help anyone. Danny's going to have to make some serious moves and get this team some talent.

Make a trade to win now or package assets and move up in the draft, I think its clear he has to do something.

I'd rather not wait through two mediocre seasons for him to do it.

This is the problem with the NewBA (and the world for that matter), people just don't have patience anymore. It's like ANY team can pull a Celts and Mia and win in a season or two after forming. It's actually hard to win a chip, if you didn't know. If people expect a rookie (a big a that) to already be a finished product I don't know what to tell you! KO isn't who he is yet, he recently became a big, sure you can dominate other kids who aren't who they will grow to be but it's another story facing grown men who have learned the game! Let Doo and them get a hold of KO during the off-season and see what he does next season. Even Sully admits that his play right now is all natural ability because he has yet to have a chance to work on his game during off-season (I can't wait! He's already a MONSTA).

[Snakehead]

I like the casual "finished project" conclusion you jump to in your post.  Just starting his rookie year, yeah he will definitely get no better than this.

Olynk has been okay so far, I was hoping for slightly more but hes only a rookie. What happens in this next draft is very important for the future of our team though.

If we stand pat with or picks, I'm afraid this team is going to be caught in the middle for two years running, which isn't going to help anyone. Danny's going to have to make some serious moves and get this team some talent.

Make a trade to win now or package assets and move up in the draft, I think its clear he has to do something.

I'd rather not wait through two mediocre seasons for him to do it.

This is the problem with the NewBA (and the world for that matter), people just don't have patience anymore. It's like ANY team can pull a Celts and Mia and win in a season or two after forming. It's actually hard to win a chip, if you didn't know. If people expect a rookie (a big a that) to already be a finished product I don't know what to tell you! KO isn't who he is yet, he recently became a big, sure you can dominate other kids who aren't who they will grow to be but it's another story facing grown men who have learned the game! Let Doo and them get a hold of KO during the off-season and see what he does next season. Even Sully admits that his play right now is all natural ability because he has yet to have a chance to work on his game during off-season (I can't wait! He's already a MONSTA).

This is the right attitude to have.  People love to forget that a lot of players weren't that good their rookie year (especially at the start).

Olynyk is absolutely not a stiff.  He has a good sense of the game.  As I've said before I think he's one of the best big man passers in the league already.  I'm hoping he just looks for his shots more (he has been passive).