Signing Rondo to a Max deal at 29

[KG Living Legend]

 I want to get the feel for what you guys think about this now before he's come back. Just the general idea of signing are soon to be 29 year old slightly flawed, championship point guard coming off ACL injury. This single issue will go a long way in determining if we should explore these wild trade ideas.

[Chris]

He has a lot of work to do to be a max player at the PG position.  The position is so deep in the NBA right now, that he is going to need to take his game up another level to be a max player IMO.  And a lot of that will have to do with leadership and consistency, which could come now that he is out of KG and Pierce's shadow.  But if he does that, I have no problem with paying him. 

[abbmack9]

I'm all for extending Rondo when he comes back and shows he's healthy. I really think this team could be very good in the near future with Rondo playing under Stevens.

[BballTim]

 I want to get the feel for what you guys think about this now before he's come back. Just the general idea of signing are soon to be 29 year old slightly flawed, championship point guard coming off ACL injury. This single issue will go a long way in determining if we should explore these wild trade ideas.

  29 isn't that old. If he was 3-4 years older it would be a legitimate question.

[D.o.s.]

He has a lot of work to do to be a max player at the PG position.  The position is so deep in the NBA right now, that he is going to need to take his game up another level to be a max player IMO.  And a lot of that will have to do with leadership and consistency, which could come now that he is out of KG and Pierce's shadow.  But if he does that, I have no problem with paying him.

Pretty much.

If he continues to play like he has for the last three or four years--and I mean the entirety of those seasons, not just "in the playoffs when he's healthy and on national television and the Moon is in Aquarius and none of his teammates can miss" moments we all hope for every time out--he's not worth a maximum contract.

The position is so deep right now that you could almost certainly trade for someone who has ~80% of Rondo's ability at ~70% or less of the cost of a max for Rondo.

That said, I don't see him being willing to take a second hometown discount. So that'll be interesting to watch. Hopefully he comes back and decides to lay waste to the league by eviscerating them with play the likes of which we've never seen.

[Chris]

 I want to get the feel for what you guys think about this now before he's come back. Just the general idea of signing are soon to be 29 year old slightly flawed, championship point guard coming off ACL injury. This single issue will go a long way in determining if we should explore these wild trade ideas.

  29 isn't that old. If he was 3-4 years older it would be a legitimate question.

This is the real tough thing to predict with Rondo.  You are right that 29 isn't too old.  But, it is just old enough that certain concerns come up that don't come up if he were 26.  Here are the two sides of the argument as I see it:

Con:
-His greatness largely comes from his athleticism, and it is inevitable that he will start losing that as he gets past 30
-Recovering from a knee injury is tougher when you are older
-Its rare that players will develop that much more new skills at that advanced age
-His lack of shooting will be an even bigger problem, if he doesn't have his explosiveness and quickness anymore

Pros:
-His intelligence should keep him from falling off a cliff.  Guys like Andre Miller and Jason Kidd have thrived, even at a snails pace, just because they had such a good understanding of the game.  So, while he may not remain as explosive, he should remain a very good player for a while, even if he does his athleticism.
-He seems to have the kind of gumby-like body that will probably age well.  Guys like KG, or even Iverson didn't fall off a cliff athletically until a much older age than guys without this body type. 
-His shot has been improving, and could concievably continue to improve, which will help to make up for his diminishing athleticism, because defenders will have to play up closer to him.
-With age comes wisdom and maturity, and that maturity has been a knock on him in the past, that he can hopefully put behind him.

Now, I don't know which side is right.  Which is where the gamble is.  Although I hope that we will have a much more informed opinion on this, as we see him recover from this injury over the next year and a half.

[TwinTower14]

I don't....I firmly believe you can't win a title with Rondo as your best player.  Now, if they are able to land a superstar to pair with him, then maybe I would but C's won't win a title if Rondo is the lone star on the team...

[kozlodoev]

Unfortunately for the Celtics, Rondo will have exactly 10 years of NBA tenure when his contract expires, which puts his max salary at ~$20 million.

Signing him close to the max for a 9-year veteran would have probably been a no-brainer (that max is ~$17 million, and Rondo will already be making $12 million in the last year of his contract).

I'm hoping he can be convinced to sign a deal starting at $15-16 million, but who knows how it's going to pan out.

[Celtics18]

I'm guessing it will end up being somewhere in the range of 4 years, $70 Million.

[BleedGreen1989]

Is it impossible to imagine Rondo won't demand a max?

He's a smart man. If he wants to win another championship I could see him taking $15mill per.

[LooseCannon]

Whatever you think is Rondo's market value, would you agree to give him a no-trade clause if he took a bit less money?

[D.o.s.]

Is it impossible to imagine Rondo won't demand a max?

He's a smart man. If he wants to win another championship I could see him taking $15mill per.

Another thing to keep in mind with this deal--it's likely going to be Rondo's last big contract. As you've said, he's a smart man, and he already took one steep discount.

Whatever you think is Rondo's market value, would you agree to give him a no-trade clause if he took a bit less money?

I'd probably give him either an NTC or a final year player option. It all depends on where his priorities are, and how much of a rate reduction "a bit less money" is.

[Celtics18]

Is it impossible to imagine Rondo won't demand a max?

He's a smart man. If he wants to win another championship I could see him taking $15mill per.

Another thing to keep in mind with this deal--it's likely going to be Rondo's last big contract. As you've said, he's a smart man, and he already took one steep discount.

Whatever you think is Rondo's market value, would you agree to give him a no-trade clause if he took a bit less money?

I'd probably give him either an NTC or a final year player option. It all depends on where his priorities are, and how much of a rate reduction "a bit less money" is.

Hopefully, his Chinese shoe contract proves to be lucrative.  That could end up being a huge factor in his decision making come free agent time.  If his big endorsement opportunities are mostly in Asia, then he won't be as tempted by the big U.S. media markets like N.Y. and L.A. 

Rondo seems to me to be a loyal guy, and so far he seems to have a good relationship with the new coach.  I think if he has some assurance that he will be kept and built around and that the team will make a commitment to trying to build a contender, he'll stay. 

[PhoSita]

How I feel about that will depend a lot on what Danny Ainge has done to add to the talent level on the rest of the roster. 

Even if Rondo ages quite well, the first 3-4 years of that contract will be Rondo's prime.  After that, his days of being a top shelf player will probably be over.  At 33-35 years old, he'll almost certainly be on the decline.  So if the Celtics are signing him to a max or near-max contract at that point, they better be prepared to compete right away.

[sed522002]

I don't....I firmly believe you can't win a title with Rondo as your best player.  Now, if they are able to land a superstar to pair with him, then maybe I would but C's won't win a title if Rondo is the lone star on the team...

That's pretty much every team in the NBA...not just Rondo. Hence the forming of so many "Big 3's".