Author Topic: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.  (Read 25632 times)

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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #30 on: December 11, 2013, 12:32:30 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Some of the responses in here make me wonder why I even bother, like Sketch apparently not having a single clue about how wp48 works.

All of the people saying how "dumb" stats are (clearly while not understanding how they work, themselves) probably think Carmelo and Bargnani are amazing and are totally confused as to why the Knicks suck right now.

If people are going to be so dismissive of my poins without actually addressing their merits, I have neither the time nor the inclination to type a reasonable response.

  Just an fyi, you should probably give a little more info before you complain about the responses. There's more than one site that uses stats that could be referred to as wins per 48. They're all calculated differently and they all represent different things. One thing that they all have in common, though, is they aren't definitive measures of how good players are. One player having a higher wp48 than another doesn't mean that they're definitely better players, just that they fit a particular statistical formula better.


Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #31 on: December 11, 2013, 08:21:38 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jeff Green's problem is that he isn't good enough to be a first or second option and he doesn't excel at anything that would let him be a great specialty type player that would be optimal in a supporting role on a title team.  I mean look at the Heat, what role would Jeff Green really play on that team.  He would certainly be in the rotation, but he isn't going to start, he isn't the 3 point shooter that Allen or even Miller is (historically), he isn't going to be in the we have to get a rebound unit (ala the Birdman).  And while he is a solid defender, he certainly isn't a better defender than Battier (at least in Battier's prime).  So what do you do with Green if you are Miami.  Play him in the regular flow, use him to rest James throughout the season, but come playoff time, Green gets regulated to 5-10 minutes a game except in rare situations where he is just on fire or there are injuries or foul trouble.

And it isn't just the Heat, he would have the same problem on the Pacers especially if Granger ever comes back.  He didn't mesh well with Durant and Westbrook.  He would have the same problems on the Spurs, Bulls (pre-Rose injury), etc.  Green's skill set just isn't all that conducive to being anything more than a minor contributor on a title team.  This becomes more and more apparent as this season wears on.
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #32 on: December 11, 2013, 08:36:05 AM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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For some reason, Jeff Green [JG] always ends up in the middle of those silly "Could he be x player on a championship team?" discussions. Well, I decided to put that question to the actual test.

I decided to compare Jeff Green's wp48 to the wp48 of players on teams that have actually won the championship over the past several years.

To be a nice guy to Jeff and give him the benefit of the doubt, I've decided to only use his wp48 over the last 3 seasons (which omits is absolutely abysmal rookie year). As a result, JG clocks in at .107.

Furthermore, I decided only to count the wp48 of players that played statistically significant minutes and made an actual contribution. Accordingly, guys like Ian Mahimni did not make the cut. Lastly, I decided to cut Green even more slack by leaving off the list guys who only were marginally better or had fluke seasons.

Here are the results:
Players from the 2013 Heat that were better than JG
Lebron James
Dwayne Wade
Ray Allen
Chris Bosh
Chris Andersen
Mario Chalmers
Shane Battier

The 2013 Spurs (runners-up, but robbed from victory by a Ray Allen 3)[/b]
Parker
Splitter
Duncan
Ginobili
Leonard
Green
Bonner

2012 Heat
Basically the same story as 2013.

2011 Mavericks
Chandler
Nowitzki
Marion
Kidd

2010 Lakers
Kobe
Bynum
Gasol
Odom

2008 Celtics
KG
Pierce
Allen
Posey
Rondo
Perkins

The list goes on, but I think the point has been made. Based on my review of history, JG could be a fringe 5th option on a contending team (at best).

incorrect!!!!!!!!! Kahwi Leonard or whatever his name is missed a free throw that would have iced the game. HE CHOKED! they gave that title to miami.
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #33 on: December 11, 2013, 08:51:22 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I mean look at the Heat, what role would Jeff Green really play on that team. 

I'd guess he'd be in Beasley's role.

Which is to say, yeah, you're absolutely correct.  Green is a top shelf auxillary scorer.  If you need a guy who can play off the ball and score with solid efficiency without ever having the ball in his hands for more than a few seconds, he's your man. 

But he brings pretty much nothing else to the table that he does at an above average level.  His individual defense is probably the closest; he's the sort of guy who can score 15-20 points while defending LeBron or Carmelo reasonably well.  He'll never shut a guy like that down, but he won't ever get torched, and he doesn't need much energy on the other end to score.


Compare that to guys like Battier, Allen, and Andersen -- those guys are role players without the all-around skill set of Green, but they do specific things at a very high level that Green doesn't.  So it's accurate to say that elite role players like that could be more valuable than Green even though they aren't actually better overall players.

That nuance, by the way, is what's missing in the original post, and that lack is the reason it wasn't received well.
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #34 on: December 11, 2013, 09:14:02 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Jeff Green's problem is that he isn't good enough to be a first or second option and he doesn't excel at anything that would let him be a great specialty type player that would be optimal in a supporting role on a title team.  I mean look at the Heat, what role would Jeff Green really play on that team.  He would certainly be in the rotation, but he isn't going to start, he isn't the 3 point shooter that Allen or even Miller is (historically), he isn't going to be in the we have to get a rebound unit (ala the Birdman).  And while he is a solid defender, he certainly isn't a better defender than Battier (at least in Battier's prime).  So what do you do with Green if you are Miami.  Play him in the regular flow, use him to rest James throughout the season, but come playoff time, Green gets regulated to 5-10 minutes a game except in rare situations where he is just on fire or there are injuries or foul trouble.

And it isn't just the Heat, he would have the same problem on the Pacers especially if Granger ever comes back.  He didn't mesh well with Durant and Westbrook.  He would have the same problems on the Spurs, Bulls (pre-Rose injury), etc.  Green's skill set just isn't all that conducive to being anything more than a minor contributor on a title team.  This becomes more and more apparent as this season wears on.

  You're picking teams that have talented players that play the same position as Green to claim that Green wouldn't have a role there. Doesn't that strike you as silly? What role would Green have had on a Lakers team that was giving big minutes to players like Luke Walton? Starting SF, playing as many minutes as he could handle. The same's likely true with this year's Clips, Nuggets or Suns teams.

Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #35 on: December 11, 2013, 09:18:25 AM »

Offline thirstyboots18

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As long as it is a championship team, what difference does it make what part he plays in it?  Glen Davis was a member of a championship team, as was Brian Scalabrine.  That 2008 team may or may not have been a championship team without them. I happen to believe that what each gave was what was needed at the time...you may not feel that way.  I guess I believe in Ubuntu.  :)
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #36 on: December 11, 2013, 09:22:44 AM »

Offline thirstyboots18

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I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't want a "best" or a "4th best" player...I want a team of team players who all recognize and fill their roles.
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2013, 09:24:35 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Jeff Green's problem is that he isn't good enough to be a first or second option and he doesn't excel at anything that would let him be a great specialty type player that would be optimal in a supporting role on a title team.  I mean look at the Heat, what role would Jeff Green really play on that team.  He would certainly be in the rotation, but he isn't going to start, he isn't the 3 point shooter that Allen or even Miller is (historically), he isn't going to be in the we have to get a rebound unit (ala the Birdman).  And while he is a solid defender, he certainly isn't a better defender than Battier (at least in Battier's prime).  So what do you do with Green if you are Miami.  Play him in the regular flow, use him to rest James throughout the season, but come playoff time, Green gets regulated to 5-10 minutes a game except in rare situations where he is just on fire or there are injuries or foul trouble.

And it isn't just the Heat, he would have the same problem on the Pacers especially if Granger ever comes back.  He didn't mesh well with Durant and Westbrook.  He would have the same problems on the Spurs, Bulls (pre-Rose injury), etc.  Green's skill set just isn't all that conducive to being anything more than a minor contributor on a title team.  This becomes more and more apparent as this season wears on.

  You're picking teams that have talented players that play the same position as Green to claim that Green wouldn't have a role there. Doesn't that strike you as silly? What role would Green have had on a Lakers team that was giving big minutes to players like Luke Walton? Starting SF, playing as many minutes as he could handle. The same's likely true with this year's Clips, Nuggets or Suns teams.
You are right he probably would have been the starting SF on the Lakers (though Ariza and Artest weren't exactly slouches), but he also would have been at best the 4th option behind Kobe, Pau, and Bynum and quite possibly Odom (who played a ton of minutes).  He also would have likely lost the crunch time minutes to Artest because Artest was a much better defender and possibly Ariza who was money from deep (47.6% in the playoffs from 3).

When you aren't good enough to be the first or second option, you need to truly excel at something to really solidify your role.  Jeff Green doesn't do that and thus he would be squeezed out of crunch time most of the time.
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2013, 09:39:35 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Jeff Green's problem is that he isn't good enough to be a first or second option and he doesn't excel at anything that would let him be a great specialty type player that would be optimal in a supporting role on a title team.  I mean look at the Heat, what role would Jeff Green really play on that team.  He would certainly be in the rotation, but he isn't going to start, he isn't the 3 point shooter that Allen or even Miller is (historically), he isn't going to be in the we have to get a rebound unit (ala the Birdman).  And while he is a solid defender, he certainly isn't a better defender than Battier (at least in Battier's prime).  So what do you do with Green if you are Miami.  Play him in the regular flow, use him to rest James throughout the season, but come playoff time, Green gets regulated to 5-10 minutes a game except in rare situations where he is just on fire or there are injuries or foul trouble.

And it isn't just the Heat, he would have the same problem on the Pacers especially if Granger ever comes back.  He didn't mesh well with Durant and Westbrook.  He would have the same problems on the Spurs, Bulls (pre-Rose injury), etc.  Green's skill set just isn't all that conducive to being anything more than a minor contributor on a title team.  This becomes more and more apparent as this season wears on.

  You're picking teams that have talented players that play the same position as Green to claim that Green wouldn't have a role there. Doesn't that strike you as silly? What role would Green have had on a Lakers team that was giving big minutes to players like Luke Walton? Starting SF, playing as many minutes as he could handle. The same's likely true with this year's Clips, Nuggets or Suns teams.
You are right he probably would have been the starting SF on the Lakers (though Ariza and Artest weren't exactly slouches), but he also would have been at best the 4th option behind Kobe, Pau, and Bynum and quite possibly Odom (who played a ton of minutes).  He also would have likely lost the crunch time minutes to Artest because Artest was a much better defender and possibly Ariza who was money from deep (47.6% in the playoffs from 3).

When you aren't good enough to be the first or second option, you need to truly excel at something to really solidify your role.  Jeff Green doesn't do that and thus he would be squeezed out of crunch time most of the time.

  He's a very good defender and a good scorer who can score in many different ways. I wouldn't expect him to be passed over in favor of players who do one thing very well and most other things poorly.

Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #39 on: December 11, 2013, 09:42:51 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I guess what I am trying to say is that I don't want a "best" or a "4th best" player...I want a team of team players who all recognize and fill their roles.


I agree, although I think that one "role" that pretty much every title team has is that of "superstar."

Which is to say, most really good teams have 2-3 guys who do a LOT of different things while also carrying a major load offensively (i.e. using 20-30 percent of the team's possessions).

That is a really important role for those guys to play, because having that role filled by 2-3 players makes it much easier to find guys in the other 6-7 spots in the rotation to fill the team's remaining needs.  So you can get guys who are just really good at one or two things (e.g. the classic 3-and-D players like Bowen).

When people decry Green for not being capable of being "the guy," what they're saying essentially is that Green can't fill that "superstar" role for a team.  That rankles a certain subset of people who see that Green is capable of scoring 15-25 points on any given night, and think that means he's star caliber.  The thing is, simply being able to score a good number of points efficiently isn't enough to fill that "superstar" role, as I explained above.

So if Green isn't the star guy, what role does he fill on a really good team?  If he's not getting a lot of touches offensively, he doesn't bring that much to the table because he doesn't have any other elite skills.  If your team already has 2-3 guys taking 20-30 shots a game, Green is basically just a really expensive offensive pressure valve (pretty much the role he played for the Celtics last year).

That's actually a pretty decent and valuable role, but if you're going to pay a guy 9-10 million dollars a year to be in that role, you're going to need to have some really good guys (on cheap contracts) in the other spots in your rotation to connect the rest of the dots for winning.

A team like Miami is a good illustration of that idea.  On Miami, Green would get tons of nice looks.  He could easily score 14-15 points a game in a sixth man role with very good efficiency, similar to what Beasley is doing for them this year.  But Miami can slot much less talented players than Green into that role and still have success because their 3 best guys -- particularly LeBron -- do so much that they pretty much just need spot up shooters (especially from the corner) who can defend and rebound.

Since LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are easily capable of scoring 60+ points together, Miami doesn't really need a player in Green's role to take more than 10 shots a game, at most. 

But a player who can shut down the opponent's best player, allowing James to save energy on offense, while also spacing the floor, grabbing rebounds, and hitting a ton of corner three shots, could be a lot more valuable than Green.  Similarly, a big man who grabs a very high percentage of offensive rebounds, finishes looks inside at a very high rate, and also blocks or bothers shots at the rim is very useful.

That's how Miami might have more use for Shane Battier or Chris Andersen than Jeff Green.  But if your team needs somebody to take 15-20 shots and play big minutes, Green is a much better bet.  He just can't be expected to also create for others, rebound, force turnovers, protect the paint, shut down the opponent's best player, etc.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 09:50:12 AM by PhoSita »
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #40 on: December 11, 2013, 09:52:13 AM »

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Reading all of this, I'm starting to think that Green for Asik might make a lot of sense for both teams.

Like, a whole lot.

Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #41 on: December 11, 2013, 09:59:17 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Reading all of this, I'm starting to think that Green for Asik might make a lot of sense for both teams.

Like, a whole lot.

Yes, Houston is a team that could really use what Green does best.  He wouldn't even need to play at the 4 -- Parsons is probably a better fit as a stretch forward, since he's a very solid rebounder for a perimeter player.


I'm just not wild about it from the Celtics' end.  Unless the Celtics are getting a potential 20+ ppg wing scorer in the draft, exchanging Green for Asik would leave them with a team that's much improved defensively, but even more inept offensively.  The Celtics would be more competitive, but still far from being particularly good.

Since the Celtics don't have a true #1 option scorer on the roster, and no clear way to obtain one outside of a top pick (which seems unlikely), the offense will need to be built around more of a committee approach.  Asik doesn't fit into that.

Maybe a 3 team trade?  Find a team that's closer to playoff contention that could really use a defensive anchor at center with some young players that the Celtics could use.


How about --

Green to Houston, Asik to Portland, Leonard + Lopez + pick to Boston?

Would make sense in conjunction with a Bass / Humphries trade.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 10:09:23 AM by PhoSita »
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2013, 10:08:09 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Reading all of this, I'm starting to think that Green for Asik might make a lot of sense for both teams.

Like, a whole lot.

Yes, Houston is a team that could really use what Green does best.  He wouldn't even need to play at the 4 -- Parsons is probably a better fit as a stretch forward, since he's a very solid rebounder for a perimeter player.


I'm just not wild about it from the Celtics' end.  Unless the Celtics are getting a potential 20+ ppg wing scorer in the draft, exchanging Green for Asik would leave them with a team that's much improved defensively, but even more inept offensively.  The Celtics would be more competitive, but still far from being particularly good.

Since the Celtics don't have a true #1 option scorer on the roster, and no clear way to obtain one outside of a top pick (which seems unlikely), the offense will need to be built around more of a committee approach.  Asik doesn't fit into that.

Maybe a 3 team trade?  Find a team that's closer to playoff contention that could really use a defensive anchor at center with some young players that the Celtics could use.
That is my feeling as well.  I like Asik a lot, but not on this current team.  If Boston were to acquire a premier scorer then bringing on Asik makes a lot of sense.  Say Boston brings in Carmelo Anthony, then Asik makes sense.  I've proposed these trades before and I think they make sense for both teams (it can be one trade or separate).

BOS - Asik, Anthony
HOU - Bass, Bradley, Clippers pick
NYK - Humphries, Green, BOS 2014 pick (top 5), BOS 2016 pick (lesser of two)

I'd probably be willing to throw an additional protected pick to make it happen, but that would leave Boston with a team that could be a real contender with Anthony as the primary scorer, Asik manning the middle defensively, and Rondo leading the show.

PG - Rondo/Crawford
SG - Lee/Crawford/Brooks
SF - Anthony/Wallace
PF - Sullinger/Anthony/Olynyk
C - Asik/Olynyk/Faverani

Now that is a team that makes sense and can truly compete for a title and still leaves Boston with a decent amount of future picks (I'd make Anthony opt in for next year before doing the trade).
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #43 on: December 11, 2013, 10:08:50 AM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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Reading all of this, I'm starting to think that Green for Asik might make a lot of sense for both teams.

Like, a whole lot.

Yes, Houston is a team that could really use what Green does best.  He wouldn't even need to play at the 4 -- Parsons is probably a better fit as a stretch forward, since he's a very solid rebounder for a perimeter player.


I'm just not wild about it from the Celtics' end.  Unless the Celtics are getting a potential 20+ ppg wing scorer in the draft, exchanging Green for Asik would leave them with a team that's much improved defensively, but even more inept offensively.  The Celtics would be more competitive, but still far from being particularly good.

Since the Celtics don't have a true #1 option scorer on the roster, and no clear way to obtain one outside of a top pick (which seems unlikely), the offense will need to be built around more of a committee approach.  Asik doesn't fit into that.

Maybe a 3 team trade?  Find a team that's closer to playoff contention that could really use a defensive anchor at center with some young players that the Celtics could use.


How about --

Green to Houston, Asik to Portland, Leonard + Lopez to Boston?

Would make sense in conjunction with a Bass / Humphries trade.

How do you complain about the offense we would lack by trading Green, and then suggest Lopez/Leonard?

Doubt Lopez would want to trade Lopez. He has done great things for them and costs half the price of Asik.
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Re: Jeff Green couldn't even be the FOURTH best player on a championship team.
« Reply #44 on: December 11, 2013, 10:12:39 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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How do you complain about the offense we would lack by trading Green, and then suggest Lopez/Leonard?

Doubt Lopez would want to trade Lopez. He has done great things for them and costs half the price of Asik.

Lopez is a better offensive player than Asik.  Also, the difference is you'd also be getting a prospect with more upside in Leonard.  Lopez would just be a stop-gap.  Probably to be traded again in the not too distant future. 

Of course the premise would have to be that Danny and his scouts think that Leonard is a good prospect.

From Portland's perspective, it could make sense because Asik is an elite defensive center, and their defense could stand to improve a bit, while scoring is not an issue because they've got 4 starters who score 15+ points a game.
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