If rondo comesback and we start losing

[mmmmm]

I think Rondo when recovered will offer another dribble penetrator, a big help to the offense.

The idea that Rondo primarily dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a pin down to pop a player for an open shot is pretty ridiculous.

I'm all for Rondo playing in Stevens system and offensive game plan, but you don't pay Rondo not to be the primary ballhandler.

This^

Rondo is already running in no-contact drills with the team and by the time he gets back on the floor, I'm pretty sure they will have run quite a few more.  Rondo has been obviously heavily involved with helping Stevens and his staff setup the offense they are running now.  There really is no reason for any surprises here.

It's not like Rondo is going to drop out of the sky like some strange space alien, grab the basketball and insist all the kids play with him, his way or else.

The offense is already shifted pretty heavily over to a pg-dominated offense anyway.  Crawford, even though he wasn't starting the first 4 games, is already up to over 71 touches per game (in just 29.6 mpg).  That means he's probably up to above 80 per game over the last couple of weeks (playing closer to ~33 mpg or so).  Basically similar to guys like Parker, Holliday, Westbrook.

Rondo, if he returns to full form, will typically touch the ball about 85-90 times a game (a little more than those other guys, a little less than guys like Chris Paul or John Wall).   

So in reality, not really all that different.  Especially since Rondo's touches will tend to have a higher share leading to teammate shots and not his own.  I.E. - even though his touches will be slightly more than Crawford is doing, the touches of others overall will likely not go down.

Though, hopefully a larger share of his teammates touches will go into the hands of the more efficient scorers ...

[mmmmm]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

The decline in our offensive rating (points per possession) over the last few _directly_ correlates with a decrease in the share of 'high efficiency' shots our offense was taking ("at rim" and "3PT" shots).  It also directly anti-correlated with the increasing share of long-mid range two-point jumpers.

Ever since we lost Shaq, we just could not keep an inside presence on offense on the floor.   Danny would get guys, but nobody could stay healthy.   Over the last couple of years, especially, the vast majority of 'big man' minutes went to KG and Bass - both of whom predominately shot 2PT jumpers.

Very frustrating.

Even though most of our bigs lack experience, in comparative terms, our inside weapons on offense are much stronger than those years.   Even Bass has started to post up more.

[BballTim]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

Pace doesn't matter with offensive efficiency except to the extent that you get better shots because you take your time.  It's all about what you do with the possessions that you use.

In any case, based on the numbers you list, the offense was still average to below average with Rondo.

  Pace matters in terms of efficiency in that you usually get better opportunities if you get a shot before the defense is set. And the main reason the Celts offense was below average with Rondo was very bad offensive rebounding. Most of our teams were well above average in terms of eFG% and TS%. He gets the team good shots, and they don't have a ton of trouble scoring.

[mmmmm]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

  I'd say that having PP and KG as your primary scorers is something that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The difference in offensive rebounding is good for about 3 extra possessions a game, which is a reasonably significant number. And it's true that the Shaq team was good on offense. So was the 2009 team, so was the 2010 team before the injuries set in, and I'd guess the 2012 team was when Rondo was on his assist streak. He was the primary ballhandler for all of those teams.

I don't know how much Rondo was really in charge of the offense before 2010.  Even in 2009 I recall Pierce having the ball a lot.

The 2010 team was good at the start of the year, but really turned into a mess for the last two thirds of the season.  The 2012 team was quite good offensively at the end of the season when Bradley was on his hot streak and Bass was playing so well.

I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen Rondo lead an above average offense for an entire season yet.  That doesn't mean he can't, or that it's his fault that he hasn't.

Your recollection is off a bit but not too much.

In 2008, Rondo's AST% (the share of teammates' shots he assisted) was still modest, at just 28.2%.  However, in those playoffs, Doc turned the offense over to Rondo and his AST% shot up to 36.3%.   It obviously worked.

From that point forward, Rondo's AST% grew steadily in both the regular season and playoffs.  It was 39.7% or higher ever since, going up each year.  In the playoffs, it has never been below 40% since then.

So, during the 2008-2009 regular season, Pierce' share of team assists, while still high for an SF, dropped from 21.8% the year before to just 16.3%.  It did not go back up above 20% until  the 2011-12 season.  It obviously also was high last season, jumping back up to a career high 25.1% because he took on point duties after Rondo was injured.

In the playoffs, after the 2008 run, Pierce never posted an AST% higher than 15.9% until last year when it jumped up to 29.1% (obviously because Rondo was out).


Edit:  Corrected Rondo's number for 2008 and fixed language to match.  Thanks, Tim!

[Tr1boy]

Some good posts. Some of you guys can work for synergy sports =)

I guess the other question is, how good can jcraw become? 

If he can keep shooting consistently, while improving pg play and minimizing bonhead plays, could be really good imo. Very good height for a pg

[BballTim]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

  I'd say that having PP and KG as your primary scorers is something that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The difference in offensive rebounding is good for about 3 extra possessions a game, which is a reasonably significant number. And it's true that the Shaq team was good on offense. So was the 2009 team, so was the 2010 team before the injuries set in, and I'd guess the 2012 team was when Rondo was on his assist streak. He was the primary ballhandler for all of those teams.

I don't know how much Rondo was really in charge of the offense before 2010.  Even in 2009 I recall Pierce having the ball a lot.

The 2010 team was good at the start of the year, but really turned into a mess for the last two thirds of the season.  The 2012 team was quite good offensively at the end of the season when Bradley was on his hot streak and Bass was playing so well.

I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen Rondo lead an above average offense for an entire season yet.  That doesn't mean he can't, or that it's his fault that he hasn't.

Your recollection is off a bit but not too much.

In 2008, Rondo's AST% (the share of teammates' shots he assisted) was still modest, at just 26.3%.  However, in those playoffs, Doc turned the offense over to Rondo and his AST% shot up to 36.3%.   It obviously worked.

From that point forward, Rondo's AST% grew steadily in both the regular season and playoffs.  It was only up a little in that first 2008-2009 regular season at 28.2% but it was 39.7% or higher ever since, going up each year.  In the playoffs, it has never been below 40% since then.

So, during the 2008-2009 regular season, Pierce' share of team assists, while still high for an SF, dropped from 21.8% the year before to just 16.3%.  It did not go back up above 20% until  the 2011-12 season.  It obviously also was high last season, jumping back up to a career high 25.1% because he took on point duties after Rondo was injured.

In the playoffs, after the 2008 run, Pierce never posted an AST% higher than 15.9% until last year when it jumped up to 29.1% (obviously because Rondo was out).

  You're off by a year. In 2008 Rondo had an AST% of 28.2 (outside of the top 20 in the league) and in 2009 he was at 39.7% (7th in the league). Paul went from 21.8 to 16.3 and KG's went from 19.9 to 14.7. Rondo was definitely running the offense in 08-09.

[mmmmm]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

Pace doesn't matter with offensive efficiency except to the extent that you get better shots because you take your time.  It's all about what you do with the possessions that you use.

In any case, based on the numbers you list, the offense was still average to below average with Rondo.

  Pace matters in terms of efficiency in that you usually get better opportunities if you get a shot before the defense is set. And the main reason the Celts offense was below average with Rondo was very bad offensive rebounding. Most of our teams were well above average in terms of eFG% and TS%. He gets the team good shots, and they don't have a ton of trouble scoring.

I think we need to be clear about what the term 'pace' means.

The "pace" statistic is simply the measurement of possessions per game.  It is not at all, by itself, indicative of how fast you are playing on offense.

From a defensive standpoint, a low pace number is _good_ because it means teams are taking longer into the shot clock to get their shots off.

From an offensive standpoint, a high pace number is good because it means you are getting your shots off earlier in the clock.

These things cancel each other out.  So the number, by itself doesn't tell you anything. A high or low pace number isn't necessarily good or bad.

Though, as far as history goes, teams that play at high pace numbers in the regular season do not correlate well with deep playoff runs.

Of Celtics teams, in particular, historically we have made it to the conference finals only a couple of times with a team that was ranked high in the pace rankings.   The vast majority of our conference title contender teams have been at or near the bottom in pace.

I think that correlation is driven mainly by defense.  The ability to slow down other teams and take away their efficiency is a big part of being a championship team.  Thus, that tends to result in a slow overall 'pace' number, no matter how fast you are scoring on offense.

If you want to look at how fast just our offense is playing, better numbers to look at would be:

Fast break points per game:  We are currently 20th in the NBA, scoring 11.5 fast break points per game.  In 2012-13 we were 16th.  In 2011-12, we were 19th.  The year prior, we were 22nd.  The year before that, 16th.

Fast break efficiency:  We are currently 18th in efficiency on fast breaks, scoring 1.597 points per fast break possession.  The prior two years (going backward in time) we were:  15th & 21st.  teamrankings.com doesn't have this stat for prior seasons.

It should be noted that the rankings for the above have a broad middle.  There really isn't a lot of difference between being ranked 10th and 20th.  I would categorize the Celtics as having been (and continuing to be) pretty much 'average' when it comes to fast break scoring.

Shot clock usage:   I don't have rankings here, but we can compare to ourselves in prior seasons.  The 'secs' indicates seconds into the shot clock.  I.E. 0-10 means shot taken in the first 10 seconds of the possession.   The percentage is the share of our shots being taken in that point in the clock.   eFG% is almost always higher earlier in the clock so the more shots early in the clock the better.
 
secs         13-14   12-13  11-12  10-11  09-10  08-09 07-08
0-10        38%        37%      35%      34%     36%      36%     36%
11-15      24%        26%      26%      24%     25%      24%     24%
16-20      22%        23%      23%      26%     24%      24%     25%
21+         16%        14%      16%      17%     16%      16%     15%

So, a tiny up tick in early ('fast break') points the last couple of seasons, but no major change in shot-clock usage profile.

[mmmmm]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

  I'd say that having PP and KG as your primary scorers is something that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The difference in offensive rebounding is good for about 3 extra possessions a game, which is a reasonably significant number. And it's true that the Shaq team was good on offense. So was the 2009 team, so was the 2010 team before the injuries set in, and I'd guess the 2012 team was when Rondo was on his assist streak. He was the primary ballhandler for all of those teams.

I don't know how much Rondo was really in charge of the offense before 2010.  Even in 2009 I recall Pierce having the ball a lot.

The 2010 team was good at the start of the year, but really turned into a mess for the last two thirds of the season.  The 2012 team was quite good offensively at the end of the season when Bradley was on his hot streak and Bass was playing so well.

I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen Rondo lead an above average offense for an entire season yet.  That doesn't mean he can't, or that it's his fault that he hasn't.

Your recollection is off a bit but not too much.

In 2008, Rondo's AST% (the share of teammates' shots he assisted) was still modest, at just 26.3%.  However, in those playoffs, Doc turned the offense over to Rondo and his AST% shot up to 36.3%.   It obviously worked.

From that point forward, Rondo's AST% grew steadily in both the regular season and playoffs.  It was only up a little in that first 2008-2009 regular season at 28.2% but it was 39.7% or higher ever since, going up each year.  In the playoffs, it has never been below 40% since then.

So, during the 2008-2009 regular season, Pierce' share of team assists, while still high for an SF, dropped from 21.8% the year before to just 16.3%.  It did not go back up above 20% until  the 2011-12 season.  It obviously also was high last season, jumping back up to a career high 25.1% because he took on point duties after Rondo was injured.

In the playoffs, after the 2008 run, Pierce never posted an AST% higher than 15.9% until last year when it jumped up to 29.1% (obviously because Rondo was out).

  You're off by a year. In 2008 Rondo had an AST% of 28.2 (outside of the top 20 in the league) and in 2009 he was at 39.7% (7th in the league). Paul went from 21.8 to 16.3 and KG's went from 19.9 to 14.7. Rondo was definitely running the offense in 08-09.

Thanks for catching that.  Fixed it.

[BballTim]

Rondo coming back is going to be tricky.  The team now has good ball movement and they do mostly push the pace (I don't think that Stevens is trying to slow them down as some have implied).  It has been mentioned that Rondo can't always bring the ball up.  There was a quote that Rondo says he understands this.  That is good and solves one Rondo problem (which may have been a Doc problem).

  I think it might be a Doc problem but it was more likely what the team said, that the other players just became too dependent on Rondo doing so much for the team. You'd see many of the players get a rebound and try and get the ball to Rondo (which was the right thing to do). But if they couldn't pass him the ball they'd pretty much stand in place with the ball and wait for Rondo to come back to them and get it. If they just dribbled out of traffic and then made the pass, or passed it to someone else who could advance the ball up the court there wouldn't have been a problem.

On fast breaks, Rondo is a good passer and should make us better.  He does overpass sometimes leading to turnovers but I suspect Coach Stevens will address that.  The real problem starts when the defense is set.  Because the other teams don't respect Rondo's shot, they sag off him, negating any spacing we try to create.  It is bad when Rondo has the ball but worse when he doesn't.  That is why I think Doc coached him to always have the ball I think.

I am curious to see what Coach Stevens is going to do to counteract the sag off Rondo defense and whether Rondo can execute whatever that scheme is.  The best scheme of course is Rondo make shots and force the defense out of the sag scheme.  That is the whole key.  Rondo will not make this team better unless he can either make routine shots or if Stevens comes up with some brilliant counter-scheme to the sag off Rondo defense.

  The best scheme is to score a basket, whether it's off of a drive, pass or jump shot from Rondo. When Rondo has the ball he's a more of a threat to get to the hoop or get an assist than he is to hit an outside shot. The defense lets him shoot because they'd rather see that than anything else he does. Doing what the defense wants you to isn't always the best move, doing what you do best makes more sense.

Bradley and Crawford are playing great.  One of them has to come out of the line up to make a spot for Rondo.  The team has spent all season learning how to play without Rondo so I think it is wrong to assume they can just plug Rondo in and expect the team to adjust and automatically be better.  The old Rondo forces a very different style of play the team would have to learn.  To work, the team can adjust a little but Rondo should adjust more (if he can).  If he can't adjust, we are not going to be better; it will be an ugly adjustment period where we are worse.

  That assumes that the style of play we ran (which suited KG and PP and Ray much more than it suited Rondo) was forced on the team by Rondo. I doubt that's the case. Also, he's been running offensive drills with the team, and 4 of the rotation players have played with him quite a bit in the past, so I don't think integrating him into the lineup would be a huge problem.

[billysan]

I think that when Rondo comes back we may see a small bit of a role reversal. With the prior teams Rondo brought the ball up the court (or Pierce) and set up the offense. The play usually went from there.

Now I think we may see Crawford or Bradley bring the ball up and Rondo be a cutter or wing player filling a lane. This will necessitate the defense respecting the ballhandler more because these two can hit jumpers and Rondo is flat out dangerous driving to the basket.

It may change the old 'sagging' strategy quickly.

[billysan]

I expect Rondo will get at least a week or two of full out practice before he is inserted into the starting lineup. He will be in shape and comfortable with most all the sets Brad Stevens has put into the offense by then. As stated earlier, he probably had some input into the current plays.

I expect to lose a few games when he comes back just because he will need time to get to mid season form. It is pretty obvious we will be at or near mid season when he comes back.

I dont think losing will have any bearing on Rondo's future or the team at this point. I believe we (Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens)  have made a comittment to Rondo for the immediate future.

[BballTim]

I think that when Rondo comes back we may see a small bit of a role reversal. With the prior teams Rondo brought the ball up the court (or Pierce) and set up the offense. The play usually went from there.

Now I think we may see Crawford or Bradley bring the ball up and Rondo be a cutter or wing player filling a lane. This will necessitate the defense respecting the ballhandler more because these two can hit jumpers and Rondo is flat out dangerous driving to the basket.

It may change the old 'sagging' strategy quickly.

  There are two main benefits to the defense when they sag off of him. One, they can prevent others from scoring because Rondo's defender can help off of him. That doesn't really work, because Rondo's able to get assists like they're going out of style. Two, it's harder for Rondo to drive when his defender gives him space. This doesn't really work either as Rondo doesn't have much trouble getting into the lane. It's not really an effective enough strategy to force us to take the ball out of Rondo's hands and give it to Bradley or Crawford.

[billysan]

I think that when Rondo comes back we may see a small bit of a role reversal. With the prior teams Rondo brought the ball up the court (or Pierce) and set up the offense. The play usually went from there.

Now I think we may see Crawford or Bradley bring the ball up and Rondo be a cutter or wing player filling a lane. This will necessitate the defense respecting the ballhandler more because these two can hit jumpers and Rondo is flat out dangerous driving to the basket.

It may change the old 'sagging' strategy quickly.

  There are two main benefits to the defense when they sag off of him. One, they can prevent others from scoring because Rondo's defender can help off of him. That doesn't really work, because Rondo's able to get assists like they're going out of style. Two, it's harder for Rondo to drive when his defender gives him space. This doesn't really work either as Rondo doesn't have much trouble getting into the lane. It's not really an effective enough strategy to force us to take the ball out of Rondo's hands and give it to Bradley or Crawford.

Maybe not, but you cant tell me it wouldnt be wonderful to see Rondo running the floor and being hit with a pass from Crawford as he cuts to the basket while Crawfords man 'D's him up at the 3pt line.

[BballTim]

I think that when Rondo comes back we may see a small bit of a role reversal. With the prior teams Rondo brought the ball up the court (or Pierce) and set up the offense. The play usually went from there.

Now I think we may see Crawford or Bradley bring the ball up and Rondo be a cutter or wing player filling a lane. This will necessitate the defense respecting the ballhandler more because these two can hit jumpers and Rondo is flat out dangerous driving to the basket.

It may change the old 'sagging' strategy quickly.

  There are two main benefits to the defense when they sag off of him. One, they can prevent others from scoring because Rondo's defender can help off of him. That doesn't really work, because Rondo's able to get assists like they're going out of style. Two, it's harder for Rondo to drive when his defender gives him space. This doesn't really work either as Rondo doesn't have much trouble getting into the lane. It's not really an effective enough strategy to force us to take the ball out of Rondo's hands and give it to Bradley or Crawford.

Maybe not, but you cant tell me it wouldnt be wonderful to see Rondo running the floor and being hit with a pass from Crawford as he cuts to the basket while Crawfords man 'D's him up at the 3pt line.

  Sure, on occasion, but what we're losing by taking the ball out of Rondo's hands and giving it to Crawford is playing away from our strengths.

[Vermont Green]

They aren't going to take the ball out of Rondo's hand.  The sagging defense is even more effective when Rondo doesn't have the ball.

Early in the possession, they just need to work the ball up the court to whoever is up the court (as they have been doing).  If it is Rondo, great give him the ball, if it is someone else, give it to them.

The problem is in the sets.  We will see what Stevens comes up with but Doc's schemes tried Rondo in the corner, kind of behind the basket and a few other things.  Nothing worked.  It always came back to Rondo with the ball.

And there has been a lot of talk about assist percentage.  I don't think it is a good thing when one player gets a high percentage of the assists.  I would rather see balance.  I bet if you checked San Antonio, Miami, and Indiana, there isn't one player "hogging" all the assists.