If rondo comesback and we start losing

[tstorey_97]

To address the post:

I would assume there will be an adjustment when Rondo returns. As a great player he will adjust to the new system with effect.
The team might lose some games with Rondo, the team isn't that good.

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

If Ainge trades Rondo, it would be in the summer when rehab/return is complete and he can get value for him.

[PhoSita]

I certainly expect this to be the most uptempo Celtics team that Rondo has had around him.  Which I think is great for him.

I hear this said a lot -- that the team is going to play uptempo, that this team is built to play uptempo.

Well, we have the wrong coach for that, if that's how you want to play.

Stevens has always been a slow-pace coach.  And that strategy makes sense -- when you're at a talent disadvantage in most games you play, you slow down the game so that there are fewer possessions, increasing the potential for statistical variance. 

That's a sound strategy for an underdog (which this team will be, even with Rondo).


The Celtics are 21st in the league in pace so far this season, and I don't expect that to change much when Rondo returns.  If anything, having Rondo will allow the team to play slow because he can manage a half-court offense and run set plays.

I definitely think we'll see fewer possessions where the guys just pass it around until it gets to the end of the shot clock and one of the guards ends up taking a deep jumper.

You think they'll be more slow tempo than the Doc/New Three teams he played on?

Possibly.  Maybe a bit faster.

Stevens has never been an up-tempo coach, and this will still be an underdog roster even with Rondo playing, so I don't expect it to change.

[PhoSita]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

[Donoghus]

93 pace instead of 90-91.

That's faster but probably not enough to transform his game, unless they adjust to run more when Rondo is on board.

Which would still be higher than anything Rondo experienced under Doc. 

[BballTim]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

  I'd say that having PP and KG as your primary scorers is something that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The difference in offensive rebounding is good for about 3 extra possessions a game, which is a reasonably significant number. And it's true that the Shaq team was good on offense. So was the 2009 team, so was the 2010 team before the injuries set in, and I'd guess the 2012 team was when Rondo was on his assist streak. He was the primary ballhandler for all of those teams.

[PhoSita]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

  I'd say that having PP and KG as your primary scorers is something that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is. The difference in offensive rebounding is good for about 3 extra possessions a game, which is a reasonably significant number. And it's true that the Shaq team was good on offense. So was the 2009 team, so was the 2010 team before the injuries set in, and I'd guess the 2012 team was when Rondo was on his assist streak. He was the primary ballhandler for all of those teams.

I don't know how much Rondo was really in charge of the offense before 2010.  Even in 2009 I recall Pierce having the ball a lot.

The 2010 team was good at the start of the year, but really turned into a mess for the last two thirds of the season.  The 2012 team was quite good offensively at the end of the season when Bradley was on his hot streak and Bass was playing so well.

I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen Rondo lead an above average offense for an entire season yet.  That doesn't mean he can't, or that it's his fault that he hasn't.

[tstorey_97]

To assume the 19th rated offense in the NBA with a two guard (Crawford) won't improve with the addition of Rondo seems odd.

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I agree with you on Rondo's game, but, support my case with his "positional" superiority over Jordan Crawford. Just don't like Crawford's game that much. (hope he wins them all, but, not a big fan of his floor generalship).

[dasani]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

also KG  and Pierce as primary scoring options isn't ideal for a great offense. They are not really helping the Nets current offense as secondary options. They have been out of their prime for a while.

[PhoSita]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

Pace doesn't matter with offensive efficiency except to the extent that you get better shots because you take your time.  It's all about what you do with the possessions that you use.

In any case, based on the numbers you list, the offense was still average to below average with Rondo.

[dasani]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

Pace doesn't matter with offensive efficiency except to the extent that you get better shots because you take your time.  It's all about what you do with the possessions that you use.

In any case, based on the numbers you list, the offense was still average to below average with Rondo.

You said bottom 10 and that he will never lead an average offense. He did lead a top 10 offense during the assist streak of last November. It was the defense that struggled and lost games.

[jc3celticsphan]

no hes not getting traded....... lol

 rondo will most likely struggle to start but that doesnt mean he needs to be traded. it will take a while for him to get back into game shape. stevens will adjust his playing time to how the teams performing. his ball handling, vision, and leadership is what this team is missing right now because you can see when this team stalls on offense rondo will be that floor general that get his team going again and attack the basket something we dont have right now besides jeff green but hes limited in the halfcourt.

but if hes still improving as a shooter then he could be very effective to start because teams will sag off (zone up) to stop him from passing the ball

[Sketch5]

I heard Stevens say that the system actually works better with Rondo's style of play.

Of course this is just a prediction by Stevens with out really seeing it in game time. But I do have a feeling that he and Rondo talked a lot about the offense. I'm sure some of the offense is input from Rondo.

[mmmmm]

i honestly dont care how rondo plays in the regular season, he gives so much effort in the playoffs that he makes up for it. he obviously saves himself physically for the playoffs. if you want him to waste his 160 lb body in the regular season, well thats just not logical.

lol...


and if the team doesn't make the playoffs?

Btw, I don't buy the "playoff superstar" theory.  He just gets more minutes.

  He dominates playoff games and playoff series. And, fyi, it's not unusual for players to get more minutes in the playoffs than the regular season. Over the last 5 seasons combined, 5 players averaged 38+ mpg during the regular season, 27 have during the playoffs. 21 players averaged more mpg in those 5 combined playoffs than any player did during those combined regular seasons.

 If your explanation of the "playoff superstar theory" was correct the theory wouldn't exist. Most (if not all) stars play more minutes during the playoffs, yet you don't hear that they're "playoff superstars". That's because they don't step up their games in the postseason like Rondo does.

He also has crappy games all the time in the playoffs.  He also has dominate regular season games and stretches as well.  Rondo is virtually the same player in the playoffs as he is in the regular season (look at his per 36 for both).  He plays more minutes and takes 2 more shots per 36 and bumps his rebounding about 0.5 per 36, but is less efficient and decreases his assists per 36 by 0.5 per 36. In other words, for all practical purposes Rondo is the same player in the regular season as he is in the post season he is just slightly more inclined to shoot more and pass less in the post season.  I would actually prefer that Rondo all the time as he does look to pass to much at times.  He also has bad games all the time because he can't play at that top level consistently enough.  His career, both post season and regular season equates almost evenly between great games, good games, and bad games.  They are pretty much 1 in 3 across the board.  He needs to up the great games and good games and decrease the bad games to really become the player he could become.

  He doesn't have very many crappy games in the playoffs when he's healthy. He doesn't always have great scoring games but he doesn't have to score a ton to control a game. Also, as I've mentioned in the past, having a player's scoring go up even as much as Rondo's in the playoffs is unusual. The defenses are generally better as you see few if any of the bottom 10-12 defenses in the league in the postseason. The Celts play the majority of their playoff games against top 7 defenses, for example.

  The last time this discussion came up I checked the top 25 or so active playoff scorers who had played a decent amount of playoff games. The only player who's per36 scoring average jumped as much as Rondo's was TMac, and that only happened because he had injury-plagued seasons where he didn't score much and missed the playoffs. The bulk of those players scored *less* per36 in the playoffs.

sure, but they also shoot less by and large, not increase their shot output by 2 a game.  Rondo scores more in the playoffs because he shoots more, not because he increased his effectiveness.  His shooting more means he gets less assists though and he basically contributes the same amount of points per game (assists and points) in both the playoffs and regular season on a per minute basis.

  Again, I don't think you realize the difference between regular season and playoff basketball. First of all, there are less assists in general in the playoffs. In the 2013 playoffs the league average was about 18.6 assists/game. During the 2013 regular season every team in the league averaged more than 19 apg and the league average was over 22. Rondo's assists/36 drop by .5 between the regular season and the playoffs, if he held to league average his assists would drop by about 1.6. So, again, Rondo "steps up" compared to the rest of the league.

  As for the number of shot attempts, notice that eFG% and TS% both drop during the playoffs (stronger defenses). I would be somewhat surprised if your claim (they take fewer shots) is really true. But if you're confident that it is, what does that mean? If they're maintaining their efficiency as you say, then their scoring efficiency compared to the league as a whole is improving. But the fewer shots means that their overall role in the offense (things like usage) is probably decreasing. Their team's overall decrease in efficiency means that their teammates are having to shoulder more of the load in the playoffs while those stars do less.

Yep.  Basically, pace drops dramatically during the playoffs.

Defenses are better - especially at preventing easy transition D.  The game slows down.  Fewer total possessions == fewer shots, fewer assists, etc.

You have to be able to execute your offense from the half court in the playoffs.  The years are littered with the wreckage of running teams that blazed through the regular season only to hit a brick wall in the playoffs.
 
So, to suggest that Rondo's simply shooting as a trade-off from passing is not quite correct. 

Rondo's AST% (the percentage of team shots he assisted) pretty much stays up above 40% in both the regular season and the playoffs.  It has dropped just slightly from his regular season number in his first 4 years in the playoffs and went up in his last playoffs. In that playoff run, it was way up over 54%.  So not only did his own personally scoring go up, but his share of involvement in the rest of the team's scoring also went up.

[Vermont Green]

Rondo coming back is going to be tricky.  The team now has good ball movement and they do mostly push the pace (I don't think that Stevens is trying to slow them down as some have implied).  It has been mentioned that Rondo can't always bring the ball up.  There was a quote that Rondo says he understands this.  That is good and solves one Rondo problem (which may have been a Doc problem).

On fast breaks, Rondo is a good passer and should make us better.  He does overpass sometimes leading to turnovers but I suspect Coach Stevens will address that.  The real problem starts when the defense is set.  Because the other teams don't respect Rondo's shot, they sag off him, negating any spacing we try to create.  It is bad when Rondo has the ball but worse when he doesn't.  That is why I think Doc coached him to always have the ball I think.

I am curious to see what Coach Stevens is going to do to counteract the sag off Rondo defense and whether Rondo can execute whatever that scheme is.  The best scheme of course is Rondo make shots and force the defense out of the sag scheme.  That is the whole key.  Rondo will not make this team better unless he can either make routine shots or if Stevens comes up with some brilliant counter-scheme to the sag off Rondo defense. 

Bradley and Crawford are playing great.  One of them has to come out of the line up to make a spot for Rondo.  The team has spent all season learning how to play without Rondo so I think it is wrong to assume they can just plug Rondo in and expect the team to adjust and automatically be better.  The old Rondo forces a very different style of play the team would have to learn.  To work, the team can adjust a little but Rondo should adjust more (if he can).  If he can't adjust, we are not going to be better; it will be an ugly adjustment period where we are worse.

[PhoSita]

It does seem odd, until you consider that the team has had a bottom-10 offense in recent years with Rondo running the offense, even when he had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as primary scoring options.

The improved offensive rebounding and inside scoring with Sullinger, Humphries, and Vitor will probably help with that a bit, as that was one of the major reasons for the team's offensive ineptitude in recent seasons.

But just keep in mind that the only time Rondo has been the primary ballhandler for a really productive offensive attack was early on in the 2011 season when Shaq was healthy and scoring 12-14 points a game in the post.

I dunno if this is true. In 2011-2012 season I know the offense went to 17th (which is middling) from a 26th offense when Rondo was on the floor. Even in the first two months last year the offense was actually top 10 when Rondo was on his assist streak. So he is very capable of running a great offense. Especially if the pace is greater and the there are more possessions (unlike the half court and slow, low rebounding, strong defensive teams of the past).

Pace doesn't matter with offensive efficiency except to the extent that you get better shots because you take your time.  It's all about what you do with the possessions that you use.

In any case, based on the numbers you list, the offense was still average to below average with Rondo.

You said ... that he will never lead an average offense.

I did not say that.  I said that he's never done it over an entire season, but I specifically noted that it doesn't mean that he can't, or wont, just that there's no track record of that.

Also, I'll need the stats on the team being a "top 10 offense" during his assist streak, because from what I recall the team wasn't winning much last November, and I don't remember the team being great offensively.  Much was made of the fact, last November, that the team wasn't playing that great despite Rondo's vaunted assist streak.