If rondo comesback and we start losing

[Fafnir]

I think Rondo when recovered will offer another dribble penetrator, a big help to the offense.

The idea that Rondo primarily dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a pin down to pop a player for an open shot is pretty ridiculous.

I'm all for Rondo playing in Stevens system and offensive game plan, but you don't pay Rondo not to be the primary ballhandler.

[BballTim]

Rondo isn't going to be 100% until sometime next season.  That's just how these injuries work.  So it would be foolish to draw any major conclusions if the team struggles when he returns.

It's going to be an adjustment for everybody on the team when Rondo comes back.  I don't expect the transition to be completely smooth.  Rondo is unlike any player currently in the rotation and the offense will have to change when he comes back.

Why does 4 other guys have to change for 1 player?

Rondo standing on top of the key while other guys run around the floor like headless chickens is a detriment imo.

If rondo works with the team and goes back to drive and dishing to the open man then we will be better than now(in theory)

  It's very unlikely you could add anyone as important to an offense as Rondo to any team and not have the other four players change their roles in the offense.

[Boris Badenov]

Rondo may play well or poorly, the C's may win or lose, but one thing is certain: the rush to judgment will be immediate and epic.

[Chris]

The idea that Rondo primarily dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a pin down to pop a player for an open shot is pretty ridiculous.

This is going to be the most interesting thing to watch, but I always thought that was Doc more than Rondo.  He just loved the plays of running guys off pindowns and picks, and having Rondo find them.  I don't think it was ever how Rondo wanted to play.

The other thing that is going to be really interesting is how they deal with fast breaks.  One of the biggest problems when Rondo was playing was that players started looking for him after getting a rebound, rather than looking for whoever was open on the outlet.  Hopefully it doesn't go back to that. 

[Tr1boy]

The idea that Rondo primarily dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a pin down to pop a player for an open shot is pretty ridiculous.

This is going to be the most interesting thing to watch, but I always thought that was Doc more than Rondo.  He just loved the plays of running guys off pindowns and picks, and having Rondo find them.  I don't think it was ever how Rondo wanted to play.

The other thing that is going to be really interesting is how they deal with fast breaks.  One of the biggest problems when Rondo was playing was that players started looking for him after getting a rebound, rather than looking for whoever was open on the outlet.  Hopefully it doesn't go back to that.

Yup. You could hear his voice yelling for the ball thougb most of the time

[Celtics18]

The idea that Rondo primarily dribbles at the top of the key waiting for a pin down to pop a player for an open shot is pretty ridiculous.

This is going to be the most interesting thing to watch, but I always thought that was Doc more than Rondo.  He just loved the plays of running guys off pindowns and picks, and having Rondo find them.  I don't think it was ever how Rondo wanted to play.

The other thing that is going to be really interesting is how they deal with fast breaks.  One of the biggest problems when Rondo was playing was that players started looking for him after getting a rebound, rather than looking for whoever was open on the outlet.  Hopefully it doesn't go back to that.

A bigger problem was that he would frequently get up the court faster than anyone else on his team.  I don't mind him getting the ball on the outlet--as a matter of fact, I want him to--if others are sprinting up the court with him. 

[Moranis]

i honestly dont care how rondo plays in the regular season, he gives so much effort in the playoffs that he makes up for it. he obviously saves himself physically for the playoffs. if you want him to waste his 160 lb body in the regular season, well thats just not logical.

lol...


and if the team doesn't make the playoffs?

Btw, I don't buy the "playoff superstar" theory.  He just gets more minutes.

  He dominates playoff games and playoff series. And, fyi, it's not unusual for players to get more minutes in the playoffs than the regular season. Over the last 5 seasons combined, 5 players averaged 38+ mpg during the regular season, 27 have during the playoffs. 21 players averaged more mpg in those 5 combined playoffs than any player did during those combined regular seasons.

 If your explanation of the "playoff superstar theory" was correct the theory wouldn't exist. Most (if not all) stars play more minutes during the playoffs, yet you don't hear that they're "playoff superstars". That's because they don't step up their games in the postseason like Rondo does.

He also has crappy games all the time in the playoffs.  He also has dominate regular season games and stretches as well.  Rondo is virtually the same player in the playoffs as he is in the regular season (look at his per 36 for both).  He plays more minutes and takes 2 more shots per 36 and bumps his rebounding about 0.5 per 36, but is less efficient and decreases his assists per 36 by 0.5 per 36. In other words, for all practical purposes Rondo is the same player in the regular season as he is in the post season he is just slightly more inclined to shoot more and pass less in the post season.  I would actually prefer that Rondo all the time as he does look to pass to much at times.  He also has bad games all the time because he can't play at that top level consistently enough.  His career, both post season and regular season equates almost evenly between great games, good games, and bad games.  They are pretty much 1 in 3 across the board.  He needs to up the great games and good games and decrease the bad games to really become the player he could become.

  He doesn't have very many crappy games in the playoffs when he's healthy. He doesn't always have great scoring games but he doesn't have to score a ton to control a game. Also, as I've mentioned in the past, having a player's scoring go up even as much as Rondo's in the playoffs is unusual. The defenses are generally better as you see few if any of the bottom 10-12 defenses in the league in the postseason. The Celts play the majority of their playoff games against top 7 defenses, for example.

  The last time this discussion came up I checked the top 25 or so active playoff scorers who had played a decent amount of playoff games. The only player who's per36 scoring average jumped as much as Rondo's was TMac, and that only happened because he had injury-plagued seasons where he didn't score much and missed the playoffs. The bulk of those players scored *less* per36 in the playoffs.

sure, but they also shoot less by and large, not increase their shot output by 2 a game.  Rondo scores more in the playoffs because he shoots more, not because he increased his effectiveness.  His shooting more means he gets less assists though and he basically contributes the same amount of points per game (assists and points) in both the playoffs and regular season on a per minute basis.

  Again, I don't think you realize the difference between regular season and playoff basketball. First of all, there are less assists in general in the playoffs. In the 2013 playoffs the league average was about 18.6 assists/game. During the 2013 regular season every team in the league averaged more than 19 apg and the league average was over 22. Rondo's assists/36 drop by .5 between the regular season and the playoffs, if he held to league average his assists would drop by about 1.6. So, again, Rondo "steps up" compared to the rest of the league.

  As for the number of shot attempts, notice that eFG% and TS% both drop during the playoffs (stronger defenses). I would be somewhat surprised if your claim (they take fewer shots) is really true. But if you're confident that it is, what does that mean? If they're maintaining their efficiency as you say, then their scoring efficiency compared to the league as a whole is improving. But the fewer shots means that their overall role in the offense (things like usage) is probably decreasing. Their team's overall decrease in efficiency means that their teammates are having to shoulder more of the load in the playoffs while those stars do less.

08-09 Kobe Bryant, per 36 regular season 26.8 p on 20.8 shots : playoffs 26.6 p on 20.3 shots

following year 25.0 on 19.9 and in the playoffs 26.2 p on 19.9 shots. 

In other words, Kobe actually scored more in the playoffs on less shots the second title season and in the first he scored more per shot in the playoffs. 

Most scorers shoot less in the playoffs.  And it isn't just Bryant.  Durant for example was almost 2 points less per 36 the year they lost to the Heat in the finals.  Even Westbrook shot less in the playoffs than during the regular season that year.

Dirk is one of the few players that is a primary scorer that actually increases his shooting output in the playoffs, but he is the exception.

For fourth options like Rondo, increasing your shots in the post season isn't that uncommon because the playoff defenses focus a lot more intently on the top tier scoring options.

[Interceptor]

The other thing that is going to be really interesting is how they deal with fast breaks.  One of the biggest problems when Rondo was playing was that players started looking for him after getting a rebound, rather than looking for whoever was open on the outlet.  Hopefully it doesn't go back to that.

I think that Rondo talked about this a little at the start of the season. For example:

"Some things I need to adjust for when I come back and play with these guys. I know Jeff loves to get the ball off the rebound and go himself. When Jeff gets the ball this year, I’m just going to run the floor. He can bring it up himself, he’s his best when he’s doing that at his position."

I expect he'll follow through with that on JG, and maybe with other players as well where it is warranted.

[Donoghus]

I certainly expect this to be the most uptempo Celtics team that Rondo has had around him.  Which I think is great for him.

[BballTim]

i honestly dont care how rondo plays in the regular season, he gives so much effort in the playoffs that he makes up for it. he obviously saves himself physically for the playoffs. if you want him to waste his 160 lb body in the regular season, well thats just not logical.

lol...


and if the team doesn't make the playoffs?

Btw, I don't buy the "playoff superstar" theory.  He just gets more minutes.

  He dominates playoff games and playoff series. And, fyi, it's not unusual for players to get more minutes in the playoffs than the regular season. Over the last 5 seasons combined, 5 players averaged 38+ mpg during the regular season, 27 have during the playoffs. 21 players averaged more mpg in those 5 combined playoffs than any player did during those combined regular seasons.

 If your explanation of the "playoff superstar theory" was correct the theory wouldn't exist. Most (if not all) stars play more minutes during the playoffs, yet you don't hear that they're "playoff superstars". That's because they don't step up their games in the postseason like Rondo does.

He also has crappy games all the time in the playoffs.  He also has dominate regular season games and stretches as well.  Rondo is virtually the same player in the playoffs as he is in the regular season (look at his per 36 for both).  He plays more minutes and takes 2 more shots per 36 and bumps his rebounding about 0.5 per 36, but is less efficient and decreases his assists per 36 by 0.5 per 36. In other words, for all practical purposes Rondo is the same player in the regular season as he is in the post season he is just slightly more inclined to shoot more and pass less in the post season.  I would actually prefer that Rondo all the time as he does look to pass to much at times.  He also has bad games all the time because he can't play at that top level consistently enough.  His career, both post season and regular season equates almost evenly between great games, good games, and bad games.  They are pretty much 1 in 3 across the board.  He needs to up the great games and good games and decrease the bad games to really become the player he could become.

  He doesn't have very many crappy games in the playoffs when he's healthy. He doesn't always have great scoring games but he doesn't have to score a ton to control a game. Also, as I've mentioned in the past, having a player's scoring go up even as much as Rondo's in the playoffs is unusual. The defenses are generally better as you see few if any of the bottom 10-12 defenses in the league in the postseason. The Celts play the majority of their playoff games against top 7 defenses, for example.

  The last time this discussion came up I checked the top 25 or so active playoff scorers who had played a decent amount of playoff games. The only player who's per36 scoring average jumped as much as Rondo's was TMac, and that only happened because he had injury-plagued seasons where he didn't score much and missed the playoffs. The bulk of those players scored *less* per36 in the playoffs.

sure, but they also shoot less by and large, not increase their shot output by 2 a game.  Rondo scores more in the playoffs because he shoots more, not because he increased his effectiveness.  His shooting more means he gets less assists though and he basically contributes the same amount of points per game (assists and points) in both the playoffs and regular season on a per minute basis.

  Again, I don't think you realize the difference between regular season and playoff basketball. First of all, there are less assists in general in the playoffs. In the 2013 playoffs the league average was about 18.6 assists/game. During the 2013 regular season every team in the league averaged more than 19 apg and the league average was over 22. Rondo's assists/36 drop by .5 between the regular season and the playoffs, if he held to league average his assists would drop by about 1.6. So, again, Rondo "steps up" compared to the rest of the league.

  As for the number of shot attempts, notice that eFG% and TS% both drop during the playoffs (stronger defenses). I would be somewhat surprised if your claim (they take fewer shots) is really true. But if you're confident that it is, what does that mean? If they're maintaining their efficiency as you say, then their scoring efficiency compared to the league as a whole is improving. But the fewer shots means that their overall role in the offense (things like usage) is probably decreasing. Their team's overall decrease in efficiency means that their teammates are having to shoulder more of the load in the playoffs while those stars do less.

08-09 Kobe Bryant, per 36 regular season 26.8 p on 20.8 shots : playoffs 26.6 p on 20.3 shots

following year 25.0 on 19.9 and in the playoffs 26.2 p on 19.9 shots. 

In other words, Kobe actually scored more in the playoffs on less shots the second title season and in the first he scored more per shot in the playoffs. 

Most scorers shoot less in the playoffs.  And it isn't just Bryant.  Durant for example was almost 2 points less per 36 the year they lost to the Heat in the finals.  Even Westbrook shot less in the playoffs than during the regular season that year.

Dirk is one of the few players that is a primary scorer that actually increases his shooting output in the playoffs, but he is the exception.

For fourth options like Rondo, increasing your shots in the post season isn't that uncommon because the playoff defenses focus a lot more intently on the top tier scoring options.

  For Kobe's career (per36) he takes 19.3 shots and scores 25.1 points, in the playoffs he takes 18.7 shots and scores 23.5 points. And Rondo's the 4th option on offense in the sense that he generates more points than anyone else on the team and is generally one of or the main focus of opposing defenses. Again, Rondo's doing more in the playoffs, those other stars are doing the same or less.

  By the way, I checked both of those Lakers teams you mentioned, and in neither case did the 4th option during the regular season increase their shots per36 in the playoffs. What evidence do you have that players like that regularly increase the number of shots taken?

[PhoSita]

I certainly expect this to be the most uptempo Celtics team that Rondo has had around him.  Which I think is great for him.

I hear this said a lot -- that the team is going to play uptempo, that this team is built to play uptempo.

Well, we have the wrong coach for that, if that's how you want to play.

Stevens has always been a slow-pace coach.  And that strategy makes sense -- when you're at a talent disadvantage in most games you play, you slow down the game so that there are fewer possessions, increasing the potential for statistical variance. 

That's a sound strategy for an underdog (which this team will be, even with Rondo).


The Celtics are 21st in the league in pace so far this season, and I don't expect that to change much when Rondo returns.  If anything, having Rondo will allow the team to play slow because he can manage a half-court offense and run set plays.

I definitely think we'll see fewer possessions where the guys just pass it around until it gets to the end of the shot clock and one of the guards ends up taking a deep jumper.

[PhoSita]

 One of the biggest problems when Rondo was playing was that players started looking for him after getting a rebound, rather than looking for whoever was open on the outlet.  Hopefully it doesn't go back to that.

Agreed.  One of the most noticeable changes after Rondo went down last year is that the fast break improved because outlet passes went to whomever was running out ahead of the defense, rather than just giving it to Rondo.

Rondo may play well or poorly, the C's may win or lose, but one thing is certain: the rush to judgment will be immediate and epic.

Well, duh!

[hwangjini_1]

Rondo may play well or poorly, the C's may win or lose, but one thing is certain: the rush to judgment will be immediate and epic.

and thus will life go on at cb for one more season. 

[Donoghus]

I certainly expect this to be the most uptempo Celtics team that Rondo has had around him.  Which I think is great for him.

I hear this said a lot -- that the team is going to play uptempo, that this team is built to play uptempo.

Well, we have the wrong coach for that, if that's how you want to play.

Stevens has always been a slow-pace coach.  And that strategy makes sense -- when you're at a talent disadvantage in most games you play, you slow down the game so that there are fewer possessions, increasing the potential for statistical variance. 

That's a sound strategy for an underdog (which this team will be, even with Rondo).


The Celtics are 21st in the league in pace so far this season, and I don't expect that to change much when Rondo returns.  If anything, having Rondo will allow the team to play slow because he can manage a half-court offense and run set plays.

I definitely think we'll see fewer possessions where the guys just pass it around until it gets to the end of the shot clock and one of the guards ends up taking a deep jumper.

You think they'll be more slow tempo than the Doc/New Three teams he played on?

[Fafnir]

93 pace instead of 90-91.

That's faster but probably not enough to transform his game, unless they adjust to run more when Rondo is on board.