As somebody else said, I think the level of decline (or lack thereof) has been exhagerated in both cases.
Everyone talks about KG like he's gone way downhill the last few years, and they talk about Duncan as if he's defied the laws of aging. It kind of irritates me because if you look at their raw numbers it's clearly not the case. Both players have been remarkably consistently over the years given their age, and both have declined at pretty much identical rates.
First lets look at KG's raw numbers over the years:
Season | Team | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | FG% | FT% |
06-07 | MIN | 39.4 | 22.4 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 47.6 | 83.5 |
07-08 | BOS | 32.8 | 18.8 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 53.9 | 80.1 |
08-09 | BOS | 31.1 | 15.8 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 53.1 | 84.1 |
09-10 | BOS | 29.9 | 14.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 52.1 | 83.7 |
10-11 | BOS | 31.3 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 52.8 | 86.2 |
11-12 | BOS | 31.1 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 50.3 | 85.7 |
12-13 | BOS | 29.7 | 14.8 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 49.6 | 78.6 |
13-14 | BOS | 22.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 37.1 | 85.7 |
Clearly his numbers have declined almost every season,
but so have his minutes. Lets take a look at his stats since Per 36 minutes, which will show you how incredibly consistent he has been:
Season | Team | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | FG% | FT% |
06-07 | MIN | 20.5 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 47.6 | 83.5 |
07-08 | BOS | 20.6 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 53.9 | 80.1 |
08-09 | BOS | 18.3 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 53.1 | 84.1 |
09-10 | BOS | 17.2 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 52.1 | 83.7 |
10-11 | BOS | 17.1 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 52.8 | 86.2 |
11-12 | BOS | 18.3 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 50.3 | 85.7 |
12-13 | BOS | 17.9 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 49.6 | 78.6 |
13-14 | BOS | 10.4 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 37.1 | 85.7 |
While he did experience a drop in scoring production after his first season in Boston, that was largely a result of his reduced role in the offense, with:
a) Pierce being the primary scorer
b) The emergence of Rondo
c) Ray Allen being the secondary scorer
His other stats (including his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers) all remained very close to the 2008 championship season, while his FG% and FT% all the way up until last seaso were still exceptional.
Even this season (in which he's been considered a big drop off) all of his statistics outside of scoring have been up there with the 2009 season - rebounds are higher, while assists, steals, blocks, turnovers and free throw percentage are right up there. He's just struggling with his shot (which shows in the outright scoring and FG%) and he's struggling with fouls.
His rebounding this season is actually the best he has rebounded since before the 2007 season in Minnesota.
Now lets look at Duncan's stats:
Season | Team | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | FG% | FT% |
06-07 | SAS | 34.1 | 20.0 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 54.6 | 63.7 |
07-08 | SAS | 34.0 | 19.3 | 11.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 49.7 | 73.0 |
08-09 | SAS | 33.7 | 19.3 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 50.4 | 69.2 |
09-10 | SAS | 31.3 | 17.9 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 51.8 | 72.5 |
10-11 | SAS | 28.4 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 50.0 | 71.6 |
11-12 | SAS | 28.2 | 15.4 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 49.2 | 69.5 |
12-13 | SAS | 30.1 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 50.2 | 81.7 |
13-14 | SAS | 27.9 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 44.4 | 74.5 |
Just like KG, you can see the decline in his output:
- His scoring has dropped by 7 PPG
- His rebounding has dropped by 2 RPG
- His assists have stayed around the same level
- His steals have remained consistent
- His blocks have fluctuated quite a bit
- His FG% dropped off significantly after 06-07, then again this year
- His FT% has remained consistent
Once again if we work out out per 36 minutes, you'll see he has declined a little, but has been pretty consistent over the years:
Season | Team | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | FG% | FT% |
06-07 | SAS | 21.1 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 54.6 | 63.7 |
07-08 | SAS | 20.4 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 49.7 | 73.0 |
08-09 | SAS | 20.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 50.4 | 69.2 |
09-10 | SAS | 20.6 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 51.8 | 72.5 |
10-11 | SAS | 17.0 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 50.0 | 71.6 |
11-12 | SAS | 19.7 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 49.2 | 69.5 |
12-13 | SAS | 21.3 | 11.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50.2 | 81.7 |
13-14 | SAS | 16.9 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 44.4 | 74.5 |
Just like KG, Duncan has seen a massive drop off with his scoring this year - both his outright scoring numbers as well as his field goal percentage. Like KG his other stats (rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers) have all remained pretty consistent on a "Per 36 minute".
The only real significant difference I see is that KG's foul rate has gone up significantly, while Duncan's has remained at the same general level. Otherwise the relative decline we have seen from both players has been remarkably similar.
Duncan has clearly declined just as much as KG has over the years (which is not all that much, all things considered) - it's just that over the past 2 seasons he's been on a team that is winning lots of games, while KG has been on teams that have struggled. People tend to unfairly judge individual players on the basis of how their team performs, and if Brooklyn was dominating teams right now and had a record on par with Miami/Indiana people would be talking about how amazing KG still is as well. It's all about perception.