Thoughts

[BballTim]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

[PhoSita]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

[BballTim]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

[greenmountain]

Unless there's further roster shakeup, I think the Celtics will pick anywhere from 6 to 12.  They have an outside shot of the playoffs, given the conference, and if they can get there, good for them.  I don't think that with the current roster they can be at the very bottom.  They don't have top end talent, but they have guys willing to give their all and keep fighting, a lot of pride, top to bottom, which can't be said for a lot of teams with similar records.   

While getting one of the prized top 5 picks might be a bonus, ultimately what's good for the roster is getting a center and someone who can shoot at a high level.  An Embiid or a Cauley-Stein, depending on where they pick for the center position.  For the shooter, it depends on who's available.  Getting one of the top picks would be a luxury for this roster, and landing Wiggins especially probably wouldn't lead to an immediate dramatic impact.  Randle would face stiff competition with Sully and what is hopefully a much improved Olynyk by then. So a top 3 pick would necessitate some further roster shuffling.  Outside of that there are combo guards in Smart and Exum, plus Embiid.

I think that's the real sweet spot for the Celtics, but even after that there are going to be some quality players to help the team out.

[PhoSita]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

In 'most' drafts, yes.

Or actually ....


Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson
Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson
Paul George, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry
Fredette, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks
Rivers, Leonard, Lamb
McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams


That's the list of guys selected 10-12 since 2008.

With the exception of 2012, it looks like there's a really good player taken in that range each year.

[BballTim]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

In 'most' drafts, yes.

Or actually ....


Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson
Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson
Paul George, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry
Fredette, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks
Rivers, Leonard, Lamb
McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams


That's the list of guys selected 10-12 since 2008.

With the exception of 2012, it looks like there's a really good player taken in that range each year.

  So roughly a 1 in 4 chance, which I still don't think really fits the term "probably".

[kozlodoev]

So roughly a 1 in 4 chance, which I still don't think really fits the term "probably".

Note that the original point was about the 6-12 pick. This can still be true even if the chance is kind of iffy for the 10-12 range.

[PhoSita]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

In 'most' drafts, yes.

Or actually ....


Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson
Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson
Paul George, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry
Fredette, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks
Rivers, Leonard, Lamb
McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams


That's the list of guys selected 10-12 since 2008.

With the exception of 2012, it looks like there's a really good player taken in that range each year.

  So roughly a 1 in 4 chance, which I still don't think really fits the term "probably".

I guess it depends on whether you think picking the right guy is just luck or a function of GM competence.

At the very least I think it's possible to say with confidence that nice players are typically available in that range, at least over the last 5-6 drafts.

[ssspence]

And the higher the pick, the more choices Ainge'll have... not to mention that whole ping pong ball thing.

[Celtics18]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

In 'most' drafts, yes.

Or actually ....


Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson
Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson
Paul George, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry
Fredette, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks
Rivers, Leonard, Lamb
McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams


That's the list of guys selected 10-12 since 2008.

With the exception of 2012, it looks like there's a really good player taken in that range each year.

There are generally some valuable players left after 14 as well.  See the (by no means complete) list that I just posted in another thread. 

[Jailan34]

And the higher the pick, the more choices Ainge'll have... not to mention that whole ping pong ball thing.

I've noticed a lot of people who are against tanking also support ainge as a GM 100% and tell of his ability to pick players so well in the late rounds so we will be fine.

Then why not give this guy a better pick? If he's so good (which I do believe he is) why not give him the best odds at a top 3 pick and let him pick our next super star and jump start our way back into contention.

[Celtics18]

And the higher the pick, the more choices Ainge'll have... not to mention that whole ping pong ball thing.

I've noticed a lot of people who are against tanking also support ainge as a GM 100% and tell of his ability to pick players so well in the late rounds so we will be fine.

Then why not give this guy a better pick? If he's so good (which I do believe he is) why not give him the best odds at a top 3 pick and let him pick our next super star and jump start our way back into contention.

Because that would require tanking.

[BballTim]

So to clear this all up, everyone would rather make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round instead of possibly getting into the lottery and drafting a top 5 player from college with the chance he could be a superstar?  I would take my chances on the draft then gaining experience.

  Even if we miss the playoffs we're likely good enough that we won't get a top 5 pick. I don't think they're planning on losing games on purpose.

A pick in the 6-12 range would still probably yield a pretty valuable player in this year's draft.

  "Probably" is a pretty strong term for the likelihood of getting a valuable player with the 10th-12th pick in most drafts.

In 'most' drafts, yes.

Or actually ....


Lopez, Bayless, Jason Thompson
Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson
Paul George, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry
Fredette, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks
Rivers, Leonard, Lamb
McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams


That's the list of guys selected 10-12 since 2008.

With the exception of 2012, it looks like there's a really good player taken in that range each year.

  So roughly a 1 in 4 chance, which I still don't think really fits the term "probably".

I guess it depends on whether you think picking the right guy is just luck or a function of GM competence.

  Obviously both are involved.

[mmmmm]

And the higher the pick, the more choices Ainge'll have... not to mention that whole ping pong ball thing.

I've noticed a lot of people who are against tanking also support ainge as a GM 100% and tell of his ability to pick players so well in the late rounds so we will be fine.

Then why not give this guy a better pick? If he's so good (which I do believe he is) why not give him the best odds at a top 3 pick and let him pick our next super star and jump start our way back into contention.

As Celtics18 points out:  That would require tanking.

Also, Danny's job involves far more than just picking the draft picks next summer.   Our '100%' support for him entails understanding that he is going to do other things to build the team than just pray for lottery balls and scout college players.

We also expect him to make good management decisions including appropriate trades and acquisitions.

You may also realize he does those other things.  The difference is in how important you consider each aspect of his job.

[Jailan34]

And the higher the pick, the more choices Ainge'll have... not to mention that whole ping pong ball thing.

I've noticed a lot of people who are against tanking also support ainge as a GM 100% and tell of his ability to pick players so well in the late rounds so we will be fine.

Then why not give this guy a better pick? If he's so good (which I do believe he is) why not give him the best odds at a top 3 pick and let him pick our next super star and jump start our way back into contention.

As Celtics18 points out:  That would require tanking.

Also, Danny's job involves far more than just picking the draft picks next summer.   Our '100%' support for him entails understanding that he is going to do other things to build the team than just pray for lottery balls and scout college players.

We also expect him to make good management decisions including appropriate trades and acquisitions.

You may also realize he does those other things.  The difference is in how important you consider each aspect of his job.

Obviously i understand he does more than scout and pick players.