How Larry Legend built a contender

[LarBrd33]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar. 

[PhoSita]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.


In any case, look -- the Pacers have done a great job building that team the way they did.

My feeling is just that the Pacer model is harder.  Because they're a small market, they didn't really have a choice.  The Rockets were in a similar quandary. 

That those teams were able to put together talented rosters without having super high picks doesn't mean that their methods were best.  Those teams are just so well managed that they pulled off rebuilds despite a high degree of difficulty.

[LarBrd33]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.

Yes.  As we've pointed out... simply landing a superstar through the draft isn't enough.  You also have to make smart moves around your superstar.  Kinda like in 2003 when every single team that bottomed out improved their fortunes.  The Cavs had 5 years of contention thanks to that draft.  The Heat have 3+ championships thanks to that draft.  The Nuggets have had a decade straight of playoff appearances thanks to that draft.  But you also have to make smart moves... which is what separates Toronto (and their lone playoff appearance around Bosh) from Miami (and their dynasty based on the drafting of Wade).

So although Indiana doesn't have this contender without their lone lotto superstar (Paul George), the Pacers still had to be built the right way.  Larry Legend deserves a ton of credit.

[PhoSita]

So although Indiana doesn't have this contender without their lone lotto superstar (Paul George), the Pacers still had to be built the right way.  Larry Legend deserves a ton of credit.

No doubt about it.  Like I said above, Larry has put together a very good team despite having a really high degree of difficulty.

It's worth wondering if the process may have been even quicker for him if he had more assets to work with -- i.e. if he had gotten some higher draft picks sooner.

[LarBrd33]

So although Indiana doesn't have this contender without their lone lotto superstar (Paul George), the Pacers still had to be built the right way.  Larry Legend deserves a ton of credit.

No doubt about it.  Like I said above, Larry has put together a very good team despite having a really high degree of difficulty.

It's worth wondering if the process may have been even quicker for him if he had more assets to work with -- i.e. if he had gotten some higher draft picks sooner.

Good news for us is that I think Danny Ainge is easily one of the most competent general managers in basketball.  Let's see where this storm blows us.  Whatever route we need to take, we're in good hands as long as Danny is the captain of the ship. 

[D.o.s.]

Its probably also worth pointing out that Bird wasn't working alone on the rebuild--David Morway and Donnie Walsh definitely deserve a portion of the credit.

[manl_lui]

So although Indiana doesn't have this contender without their lone lotto superstar (Paul George), the Pacers still had to be built the right way.  Larry Legend deserves a ton of credit.

No doubt about it.  Like I said above, Larry has put together a very good team despite having a really high degree of difficulty.

It's worth wondering if the process may have been even quicker for him if he had more assets to work with -- i.e. if he had gotten some higher draft picks sooner.

Good news for us is that I think Danny Ainge is easily one of the most competent general managers in basketball.  Let's see where this storm blows us.  Whatever route we need to take, we're in good hands as long as Danny is the captain of the ship.

2007-2008 was amazing, but as far as the current rebuild, hopefully we will see results in 2015, or 2016...I really don't want to wait 8 years lol

[Jailan34]

So although Indiana doesn't have this contender without their lone lotto superstar (Paul George), the Pacers still had to be built the right way.  Larry Legend deserves a ton of credit.

No doubt about it.  Like I said above, Larry has put together a very good team despite having a really high degree of difficulty.

It's worth wondering if the process may have been even quicker for him if he had more assets to work with -- i.e. if he had gotten some higher draft picks sooner.

Good news for us is that I think Danny Ainge is easily one of the most competent general managers in basketball.  Let's see where this storm blows us.  Whatever route we need to take, we're in good hands as long as Danny is the captain of the ship. 

This is something I really agree with. Even if the Celtic's attempt to tank (which it doesn't look like is their plan is so far) and they don't end up with the high draft pick I'm still confident our rebuild will continue in the right direction with Ainge running it.

I feel this way because our rebuild won't be one big trade and with how many wins we have already it wont be one big draft pick. So that means it will be a series of moves, and I trust Danny to plan out this out very well given how important this season is to our team's future.

[Section301]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

Silly.

The last draft that compared to this was arguably the 2003 draft.

The teams that "bottomed out" the year before with less than 30 wins:

Denver - 17 wins
Cleveland - 17 wins
Toronto - 24 wins
Miami - 25 wins
Clippers - 27 wins
Memphis - 28 wins

Memphis didn't own their own draft pick... so obviously that was a poorly run franchise we can forget about. 

HOw did the 2003 draft change the fortunes of the other 5 teams?

#1 - Denver took Melo.  They immediately went from 17 win team to 43 win playoff team.  Because of that draft, they have not missed the playoffs since.  A decade straight of playoff appearances.  Between 43-57 win.


#2 - Cleveland took Bron.  A transcendent player who transformed the team essentially by himself.  They were in the playoffs by Year 3.  Made the Finals in Year 4.  LeBron took them from a 17 win team to a 66 win contender.


#3 - Toronto took Chris Bosh.  This did not work out as well for them.  It took Bosh 4 years to lead them to the playoffs.  He was the centerpiece of a 47 win team.


#4 - Miami took Dwayne Wade.  Playoffs his rookie season.   Eastern Conference Finals his second season.  Champion his third season.  It's the gift that has kept on giving for Miami... as a direct result of this draft, they have won 3 championships. 

#5 - Clippers took Chris Kaman.  Capable big man who peaked out averaging 16 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks.  He was a key contributor on a 47 win playoff team his 3rd season.


By my count, every single team that bottomed out in 2002 and had a 2003 draft pick became a playoff team within 1-4 years.

Tanking during transcendent drafts is a smart move.

Or, looking at it another way..5 teams tanked for a loaded draft, and only one has gotten a championship out of it 10 years later.  And that team had the fifth pick in that draft.  Worse yet, the team that got the #1 pick in that draft got the transcendent player of his generation, but failed to win with him, lost him, and was stuck in another ugly rebuild 7 years later.  Toronto's not so competitive these days, either.

I agree that getting exceptional talent in the draft is a good idea.  But even when you race to the bottom in a loaded draft the probability that you'll end up a champion is slim.  For the 5 teams in the 2003 draft, so far it's a 20% hit rate 10 years later. 

[D.o.s.]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

Silly.

The last draft that compared to this was arguably the 2003 draft.

The teams that "bottomed out" the year before with less than 30 wins:

Denver - 17 wins
Cleveland - 17 wins
Toronto - 24 wins
Miami - 25 wins
Clippers - 27 wins
Memphis - 28 wins

Memphis didn't own their own draft pick... so obviously that was a poorly run franchise we can forget about. 

HOw did the 2003 draft change the fortunes of the other 5 teams?

#1 - Denver took Melo.  They immediately went from 17 win team to 43 win playoff team.  Because of that draft, they have not missed the playoffs since.  A decade straight of playoff appearances.  Between 43-57 win.


#2 - Cleveland took Bron.  A transcendent player who transformed the team essentially by himself.  They were in the playoffs by Year 3.  Made the Finals in Year 4.  LeBron took them from a 17 win team to a 66 win contender.


#3 - Toronto took Chris Bosh.  This did not work out as well for them.  It took Bosh 4 years to lead them to the playoffs.  He was the centerpiece of a 47 win team.


#4 - Miami took Dwayne Wade.  Playoffs his rookie season.   Eastern Conference Finals his second season.  Champion his third season.  It's the gift that has kept on giving for Miami... as a direct result of this draft, they have won 3 championships. 

#5 - Clippers took Chris Kaman.  Capable big man who peaked out averaging 16 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks.  He was a key contributor on a 47 win playoff team his 3rd season.


By my count, every single team that bottomed out in 2002 and had a 2003 draft pick became a playoff team within 1-4 years.

Tanking during transcendent drafts is a smart move.

Or, looking at it another way..5 teams tanked for a loaded draft, and only one has gotten a championship out of it 10 years later.  And that team had the fifth pick in that draft.  Worse yet, the team that got the #1 pick in that draft got the transcendent player of his generation, but failed to win with him, lost him, and was stuck in another ugly rebuild 7 years later.  Toronto's not so competitive these days, either.

I agree that getting exceptional talent in the draft is a good idea.  But even when you race to the bottom in a loaded draft the probability that you'll end up a champion is slim.  For the 5 teams in the 2003 draft, so far it's a 20% hit rate 10 years later.

Is it worth pointing out that for the 30 teams in the NBA, only about ten of them have won a championship since the ABA merger?

[BballTim]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.

Yes.  As we've pointed out... simply landing a superstar through the draft isn't enough.  You also have to make smart moves around your superstar.  Kinda like in 2003 when every single team that bottomed out improved their fortunes.  The Cavs had 5 years of contention thanks to that draft.  The Heat have 3+ championships thanks to that draft.  The Nuggets have had a decade straight of playoff appearances thanks to that draft.  But you also have to make smart moves... which is what separates Toronto (and their lone playoff appearance around Bosh) from Miami (and their dynasty based on the drafting of Wade).

  Miami's smart move over Toronto is to be geographically located in a better area. How many teams weren't smart enough to want LeBron on their roster?

[indeedproceed]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.

Yes.  As we've pointed out... simply landing a superstar through the draft isn't enough.  You also have to make smart moves around your superstar.  Kinda like in 2003 when every single team that bottomed out improved their fortunes.  The Cavs had 5 years of contention thanks to that draft.  The Heat have 3+ championships thanks to that draft.  The Nuggets have had a decade straight of playoff appearances thanks to that draft.  But you also have to make smart moves... which is what separates Toronto (and their lone playoff appearance around Bosh) from Miami (and their dynasty based on the drafting of Wade).

  Miami's smart move over Toronto is to be geographically located in a better area. How many teams weren't smart enough to want LeBron on their roster?

I don't think that's really a good depiction of what went down. Miami had Pat Riley and Dwyane Wade. Without those guys, LeBron doesn't take his talents to South Beach, and likely neither does Bosh. And they got Wade....through the draft of 2003!

[Lucky17]

Indiana won 32 games the season before drafting Paul George. They did a very poor job of tanking.

If they'd won 7 fewer games, they could have had a chance to draft Wesley Johnson or Ekpe Udoh. Maybe even Evan Turner.

[BballTim]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.

Yes.  As we've pointed out... simply landing a superstar through the draft isn't enough.  You also have to make smart moves around your superstar.  Kinda like in 2003 when every single team that bottomed out improved their fortunes.  The Cavs had 5 years of contention thanks to that draft.  The Heat have 3+ championships thanks to that draft.  The Nuggets have had a decade straight of playoff appearances thanks to that draft.  But you also have to make smart moves... which is what separates Toronto (and their lone playoff appearance around Bosh) from Miami (and their dynasty based on the drafting of Wade).

  Miami's smart move over Toronto is to be geographically located in a better area. How many teams weren't smart enough to want LeBron on their roster?

I don't think that's really a good depiction of what went down. Miami had Pat Riley and Dwyane Wade. Without those guys, LeBron doesn't take his talents to South Beach, and likely neither does Bosh. And they got Wade....through the draft of 2003!

  I realize the Heat drafted Wade (only because Detroit managed to whiff in that draft, otherwise they get nothing). But to say that they got those players because they were smarter than the other franchises with cap space is silly.

[indeedproceed]

Fair to say that Indiana suffered through almost a decade of mediocrity... and it wasn't until they finally had a lotto pick that they lucked into a superstar.

Whether you say it's 'luck' or good drafting, it's true, they had to take a guy in the top 10 who became a superstar in order to get to that level.

You can also say, though, that #10 is right on the edge of that category, and in most drafts you don't really need to be a bad team in order to get a pick in the 8-10 range.  It's not that hard to trade up into that range.

Yes.  As we've pointed out... simply landing a superstar through the draft isn't enough.  You also have to make smart moves around your superstar.  Kinda like in 2003 when every single team that bottomed out improved their fortunes.  The Cavs had 5 years of contention thanks to that draft.  The Heat have 3+ championships thanks to that draft.  The Nuggets have had a decade straight of playoff appearances thanks to that draft.  But you also have to make smart moves... which is what separates Toronto (and their lone playoff appearance around Bosh) from Miami (and their dynasty based on the drafting of Wade).

  Miami's smart move over Toronto is to be geographically located in a better area. How many teams weren't smart enough to want LeBron on their roster?

I don't think that's really a good depiction of what went down. Miami had Pat Riley and Dwyane Wade. Without those guys, LeBron doesn't take his talents to South Beach, and likely neither does Bosh. And they got Wade....through the draft of 2003!

  I realize the Heat drafted Wade (only because Detroit managed to whiff in that draft, otherwise they get nothing). But to say that they got those players because they were smarter than the other franchises with cap space is silly.

Yeah I mean its not like they cracked some kind of awesome code or anything. They just managed to sell their star, their city, their GM, and their organization better than anyone else.

But that's a skill. Getting the right people to run your organization, getting the franchise players to buy in, that's what winners do. Without Riley and Wade, all the sunlight in Miami-Dade county won't make an ounce of difference in 'the decision'.