How Larry Legend built a contender

[LarBrd33]

Someone may have posted this a while back.  It's a couple weeks old, but it's a pretty good article on how Larry Bird built the Indiana Pacers contender.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2013/11/22/larry-bird-donnie-walsh-paul-george-roy-hibbert-frank-vogel-indiana/3675927/

For those anti-tankers who want to see us keep this squad together in the face of mediocrity, refuse to bottom out and keep plugging along with mid-1st round picks... this article is your rallying cry.  The only time the Pacers entered the lottery, they took a chance on Paul George at #10.   They didn't build this team through Top 5 picks, huge free agent signings or blockbuster trades.  Good read. 

Pacers are 16-1 right now. 

It only took them 8 years of Perpetual mediocrity (32-42 wins), but now look at them.  They are dominating.

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021. 

[danglertx]

Is there a rule it has to take 8 years?  And did he start off with more or less talent and draft picks coming over the next few years than we have? 

I'd also add, they were competitive last year.  What makes them more competitive this year, a faster start?

[Jailan34]

Is there a rule it has to take 8 years?  And did he start off with more or less talent and draft picks coming over the next few years than we have? 

I'd also add, they were competitive last year.  What makes them more competitive this year, a faster start?

This is a pretty subjective part of the post yes, but last season in my opinion IND wasn't a title contender just as the thunder weren't the year before their run to the finals. This year they are in my opinion one of the two favorites to come out of the east which makes them a title contender.

[JBcat]

They were sort of lucky with the David West signing, and they will need a new PF in a couple years as he is getting up there in age.

[LooseCannon]

I think Houston post-Yao/McGrady is the better model.  Houston probably would have become a contender sooner if the Chris Paul trade had gone through.  It was rumored they were going to sign Nene to pair him with Pau Gasol.

[hwangjini_1]

i dont think a large herd of cb posters would argue with indiana's approach, it obviously is working. my point would be that there are multiple paths to redemption for the celtics.

indiana's route took some time. i think ainge has anticipated the rebuilding process and it will be shorter than 8 years. whew. 

yes, you do not absolutely HAVE to have a top 5 pick, and having one does not GUARANTEE you become a contender. but let's face it, having a top 5 pick is more desirable than not having one. it opens up all sorts of options for gaining talent.

unless the celtics get lucky, i expect their 2014 pick to be in the 6 to 10 range. so probably they will pick up an excellent player to go with sully, rondo, and green. with the other future picks and free agency to help with the final pieces, it may all come together in 3-4 years.... maybe.

[kozlodoev]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

[hwangjini_1]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

good one. but remember, the celtics - thank the gods in the heavens - have different owners and a different GM. i think the celtics, given picks of the clippers, would have turned out a tad different.

[Birdman]

just got to get lucky with who u pick on draft night..Hibbert and George both went around 9th pick..West was a great FA signing..Nobody wanted Stephenson as he went in the 2nd round

[kozlodoev]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

good one. but remember, the celtics - thank the gods in the heavens - have different owners and a different GM. i think the celtics, given picks of the clippers, would have turned out a tad different.

Yeah, Ainge should have just kept that #5 pick and drafted Yi. And the other one that would have netted him Brandon Roy. That duo would have been unstoppable for years to come.

The draft is a crap shoot, no matter how you slice it. I'd unload any and all draft pick to someone who's willing to trade me a disgruntled star.

[LarBrd33]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

Silly.

The last draft that compared to this was arguably the 2003 draft.

The teams that "bottomed out" the year before with less than 30 wins:

Denver - 17 wins
Cleveland - 17 wins
Toronto - 24 wins
Miami - 25 wins
Clippers - 27 wins
Memphis - 28 wins

Memphis didn't own their own draft pick... so obviously that was a poorly run franchise we can forget about. 

HOw did the 2003 draft change the fortunes of the other 5 teams?

#1 - Denver took Melo.  They immediately went from 17 win team to 43 win playoff team.  Because of that draft, they have not missed the playoffs since.  A decade straight of playoff appearances.  Between 43-57 win.


#2 - Cleveland took Bron.  A transcendent player who transformed the team essentially by himself.  They were in the playoffs by Year 3.  Made the Finals in Year 4.  LeBron took them from a 17 win team to a 66 win contender.


#3 - Toronto took Chris Bosh.  This did not work out as well for them.  It took Bosh 4 years to lead them to the playoffs.  He was the centerpiece of a 47 win team.


#4 - Miami took Dwayne Wade.  Playoffs his rookie season.   Eastern Conference Finals his second season.  Champion his third season.  It's the gift that has kept on giving for Miami... as a direct result of this draft, they have won 3 championships. 

#5 - Clippers took Chris Kaman.  Capable big man who peaked out averaging 16 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks.  He was a key contributor on a 47 win playoff team his 3rd season.


By my count, every single team that bottomed out in 2002 and had a 2003 draft pick became a playoff team within 1-4 years.

Tanking during transcendent drafts is a smart move.

[chambers]

Great fairy tale story.
As Lar says, it only took them 8 years to look decent. I hope everyone knows that to draft Hibbert and George they missed the playoffs and from 2006-2010 they didn't make the playoffs once.

What the article doesn't explain is the luck involved in

a)drafting Hibbert and George with late lottery picks

b)having them become all star caliber players. BOTH of them.

c)then having them re-sign with the club that drafted them
That is a combination of luck that is just as hard, if not harder to pull off than binking a number one pick.
It's the same as collecting up all your trade chips and hoping to get Dwight Howard like Houston did.

How lucky was Houston to get Harden, have him excel in that starting role, then sign Howard ahead of the Lakers and the other 4 teams trying to get him.

The Rockets are also still a while away from being a contender at this point.

Back to the Pacers, they still have to beat Miami, luckily for them we suck, and so do the Bulls that now D Rose is out- so they'll have an easy path to the Heat if the Nets don't get healthy or work out the coaching situation.

Building a contender requires an insane amount of luck- and the Pacers STILL did it with draft picks, David West is a good player but he ain't an All Star any more- he's a solid veteran- they're relying on their draft picks for their success.

Point of the Pacers story.

*You can be a small market team and be successful. You don't have to tank, but you still need to get incredibly lucky to draft lottery picks that turn out to be stars. (George)

*You then have to be lucky enough to ensure they don't pursue free agency.(same with Hibbert)

*Then you might have a chance at beating the teams with the legitimate franchise guys in your conference, which also helps when some of your biggest threats are injured.(Derrick Rose, Noah, Deron Williams, Chris Bosh)

*You'll be forgotten in the wind once the franchise player and his cronies hoist the Larry O'brien trophy once again as you ALMOST beat them.

I do think the Pacers are a great team, I also like that they're the underdog. I do hope they beat the Heat.
Just don't forget how insanely lucky you have to get to have their current situation.
It doesn't matter if you choose the draft or free agency- you'll have to get some crazy luck.
I think what this also highlights is how important your top level management and GM is to your teams success.
If this were the Charlotte or Minnesota front offices it wouldn't be the same story.

[kozlodoev]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

Silly.

The last draft that compared to this was arguably the 2003 draft.

The teams that "bottomed out" the year before with less than 30 wins:

Denver - 17 wins
Cleveland - 17 wins
Toronto - 24 wins
Miami - 25 wins
Clippers - 27 wins
Memphis - 28 wins

Memphis didn't own their own draft pick... so obviously that was a poorly run franchise we can forget about. 

HOw did the 2003 draft change the fortunes of the other 5 teams?

#1 - Denver took Melo.  They immediately went from 17 win team to 43 win playoff team.  Because of that draft, they have not missed the playoffs since.  A decade straight of playoff appearances.  Between 43-57 win.


#2 - Cleveland took Bron.  A transcendent player who transformed the team essentially by himself.  They were in the playoffs by Year 3.  Made the Finals in Year 4.  LeBron took them from a 17 win team to a 66 win contender.


#3 - Toronto took Chris Bosh.  This did not work out as well for them.  It took Bosh 4 years to lead them to the playoffs.  He was the centerpiece of a 47 win team.


#4 - Miami took Dwayne Wade.  Playoffs his rookie season.   Eastern Conference Finals his second season.  Champion his third season.  It's the gift that has kept on giving for Miami... as a direct result of this draft, they have won 3 championships. 

#5 - Clippers took Chris Kaman.  Capable big man who peaked out averaging 16 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks.  He was a key contributor on a 47 win playoff team his 3rd season.


By my count, every single team that bottomed out in 2002 and had a 2003 draft pick became a playoff team within 1-4 years.

Tanking during transcendent drafts is a smart move.

You keep talking about how this draft "compares" to that draft as if it's some sort of certainty. It's not. It's all conjecture, based on the fact that hindsight is, well, 20/20.

Also, to say that Miami won three championships as a direct result of drafting Wade is just humorous. Pretty much like arguing that our 2008 championship is a direct result of drafting Delonte West.

[chambers]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

Silly.

The last draft that compared to this was arguably the 2003 draft.

The teams that "bottomed out" the year before with less than 30 wins:

Denver - 17 wins
Cleveland - 17 wins
Toronto - 24 wins
Miami - 25 wins
Clippers - 27 wins
Memphis - 28 wins

Memphis didn't own their own draft pick... so obviously that was a poorly run franchise we can forget about. 

HOw did the 2003 draft change the fortunes of the other 5 teams?

#1 - Denver took Melo.  They immediately went from 17 win team to 43 win playoff team.  Because of that draft, they have not missed the playoffs since.  A decade straight of playoff appearances.  Between 43-57 win.


#2 - Cleveland took Bron.  A transcendent player who transformed the team essentially by himself.  They were in the playoffs by Year 3.  Made the Finals in Year 4.  LeBron took them from a 17 win team to a 66 win contender.


#3 - Toronto took Chris Bosh.  This did not work out as well for them.  It took Bosh 4 years to lead them to the playoffs.  He was the centerpiece of a 47 win team.


#4 - Miami took Dwayne Wade.  Playoffs his rookie season.   Eastern Conference Finals his second season.  Champion his third season.  It's the gift that has kept on giving for Miami... as a direct result of this draft, they have won 3 championships. 

#5 - Clippers took Chris Kaman.  Capable big man who peaked out averaging 16 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks.  He was a key contributor on a 47 win playoff team his 3rd season.


By my count, every single team that bottomed out in 2002 and had a 2003 draft pick became a playoff team within 1-4 years.

Tanking during transcendent drafts is a smart move.

You keep talking about how this draft "compares" to that draft as if it's some sort of certainty. It's not. It's all conjecture, based on the fact that hindsight is, well, 20/20.

Also, to say that Miami won three championships as a direct result of drafting Wade is just humorous. Pretty much like arguing that our 2008 championship is a direct result of drafting Delonte West.

Then how did they win those three championships?
They drafted a top 5 player in the league. He attracted one of the top free agents in the league in Shaq.
He then attracted the top free agent in Lebron, and another starting caliber All Star free agent in Chris Bosh.

The Heats three championships are an indirect result of drafting Wade- yes Lebron is the best player, but Wade has been their second best player in each finals run with Lebron.

What your saying is like saying the Bulls 6 championships weren't due to drafting Jordan or Pippen.

Without Wade what to the Heat have? Biscuits.

[chambers]

Perhaps if we follow this mold, we too can be great in 2021.

Right. Let's follow the mold of the Clippers. After all, all those top draft picks they had turned them around in just a couple of years, right? Oh wait...

good one. but remember, the celtics - thank the gods in the heavens - have different owners and a different GM. i think the celtics, given picks of the clippers, would have turned out a tad different.

Hwangjini I wish you would post more, you are one of my favorite Celtics minds.
So reasonable, so logical- willing to accept both sides of the argument.

TP man.