Is Post Offense Over-rated On this Forum?

[LooseCannon]

When he was introduced as Lakers coach, Mike D'Antoni said during the press conference, "One of the least efficient plays in basketball is a straight post up."

I decided to look into that at mysynergysports.com

Here are the Eastern Conference teams with the PPP for all plays and for post-ups:

      Overall   Post-Up
Atlanta      0.96   0.92
Boston      0.86   0.84
Brooklyn   0.89   0.95
Charlotte   0.84   0.55
Chicago      0.88   0.95
Cleveland   0.84   0.88
Detroit      0.84   0.76
Indiana      0.92   0.73
Milwaukee   0.84   0.74
Miami      1.05   1.02
New York   0.88   0.83
Orlando      0.90   0.89
Philadelphia   0.88   0.83
Toronto      0.89   0.68
Washington   0.90   0.76

I decided to also look at every player who has started at least six games this season who is either 6'10" or more and averaging double digit scoring or who is listed on b-r.com as a center.

L Aldridge   0.93   0.88
Omer Asik   0.85   0.67
Andrea Bargnani   1.01   0.50
Andrew Bogut   0.85   0.58
Chris Bosh   1.22   1.43
D. Cousins   0.90   0.79
Anthony Davis   1.09   0.57
S. Dalembert   0.94   0.00
Andre Drummond   1.1   0.75
Tim Duncan   0.77   0.87
Derrick Favors   0.87   0.85
Marc Gasol   0.95   0.95
Pau Gasol   0.77   0.71
Marcin Gortat   0.94   0.63
Blake Griffin   1.02   0.93
Spencer Hawes   1.06   0.86
Roy Hibbert   0.90   0.80
Al Horford   0.97   0.83
Dwight Howard   0.96   0.68
Serge Ibaka   1.02   0.73
DeAndre Jordan   0.98   1.00
Enes Kanter   0.94   0.77
Brook Lopez   1.14   1.20
Robin Lopez   0.89   1.05
Kevin Love   1.01   0.85
Greg Monroe   0.90   0.78
Nene      1.08   0.92
Joakim Noah   0.75   1.00
Dirk Nowitzki   1.10   1.15
Zaza Pachulia   0.73   0.76
Nikola Pekovic   1.00   0.75
K. Perkins   0.55   0.57
Miles Plumlee   0.86   0.89
Jsaon Smith   1.06   ---
J. Valanciunas   0.89   0.76
Nikola Vucevic   0.96   0.88

Only Brooklyn, Chicago, and Cleveland have more points per possession on post-ups than on their average play.  Some teams are significantly worse on post-ups.  The numbers for individual big men suggest that pounding the ball inside is probably not a great strategy.

Some people seem to treat good post offense as practically automatic point manufacturing.  Maybe it isn't that important for the Celtics to seek out guys with nifty post moves and you want your interior offense to be more about people catching balls in the paint and scoring on assisted plays.

[Celtics18]

Great post.  Personally, I have always thought post offense is generally a bit over-rated.  I'm not saying that it can't be helpful to have players who can score on the block, but the findings in your study confirm my long-held suspicions that pounding the ball into the post is far from the most efficient way for an NBA basketball team to score. 

[D.o.s.]

I don't even have to look at the numbers to say the answer is "yes."

CB'ers be lovin' the low block touches. You see it in every game thread.

[the_Bird]

Personally, I'm a fan of having a diversified offensive approach, so that you can attack your opponents' weaknesses and you've got something else to fall back on during games when the legs just aren't there. 

[Fafnir]

A big part of the value of posting up is drawing fouls to get you into the bonus later in the quarter and off the open jump shots you gain by passing out of the post.

I don't think the PPP accounts for either of these. I do think with the current NBA defensive rules that post player is overvalued by this board though.

[Who]

The rule changes disallowing hand checking on the perimeter have changed the game and have made dribble penetration the most efficient offensive action in basketball + have turned post play from the most efficient into one of the least efficient offensive actions.

Guys like Bogut and Hibbert would have been 16-18ppg scorers in the 1990s because they would have gotten so much more touches inside but in today's game it is simply not in their team's interests to give them that many post touches because it is no longer efficient enough relative to other options. Likewise, guys like Rony Seikaly would only be 11-14ppg scorers in the league today instead of 16-18ppg scorer he was in the 1990s.

It's the rule changes.

[PhoSita]

A big part of the value of posting up is drawing fouls to get you into the bonus later in the quarter and off the open jump shots you gain by passing out of the post.

I don't think the PPP accounts for either of these. I do think with the current NBA defensive rules that post player is overvalued by this board though.

I agree that generally posting up is not as efficient as it once was, due in part to rule changes and in part to the fact that big men tend to be less skilled with their backs to the basket these days.

However, you make a good point -- what makes players like the Gasol brothers valuable operating out of the post is the ability to pass out of the post, not necessarily take shots out of the post.

A post-up is a valuable tool.  Just look at Dirk Nowitzki's post-season run in 2011.  He as nearly unstoppable.  However, the post-up was just one part of his game.

[mgent]

When he was introduced as Lakers coach, Mike D'Antoni said during the press conference, "One of the least efficient plays in basketball is a straight post up."

I decided to look into that at mysynergysports.com

Here are the Eastern Conference teams with the PPP for all plays and for post-ups:

      Overall   Post-Up
Atlanta      0.96   0.92
Boston      0.86   0.84
Brooklyn   0.89   0.95
Charlotte   0.84   0.55
Chicago      0.88   0.95
Cleveland   0.84   0.88
Detroit      0.84   0.76
Indiana      0.92   0.73
Milwaukee   0.84   0.74
Miami      1.05   1.02
New York   0.88   0.83
Orlando      0.90   0.89
Philadelphia   0.88   0.83
Toronto      0.89   0.68
Washington   0.90   0.76

I decided to also look at every player who has started at least six games this season who is either 6'10" or more and averaging double digit scoring or who is listed on b-r.com as a center.

L Aldridge   0.93   0.88
Omer Asik   0.85   0.67
Andrea Bargnani   1.01   0.50
Andrew Bogut   0.85   0.58
Chris Bosh   1.22   1.43
D. Cousins   0.90   0.79
Anthony Davis   1.09   0.57
S. Dalembert   0.94   0.00
Andre Drummond   1.1   0.75
Tim Duncan   0.77   0.87
Derrick Favors   0.87   0.85
Marc Gasol   0.95   0.95
Pau Gasol   0.77   0.71
Marcin Gortat   0.94   0.63
Blake Griffin   1.02   0.93
Spencer Hawes   1.06   0.86
Roy Hibbert   0.90   0.80
Al Horford   0.97   0.83
Dwight Howard   0.96   0.68
Serge Ibaka   1.02   0.73
DeAndre Jordan   0.98   1.00
Enes Kanter   0.94   0.77
Brook Lopez   1.14   1.20
Robin Lopez   0.89   1.05
Kevin Love   1.01   0.85
Greg Monroe   0.90   0.78
Nene      1.08   0.92
Joakim Noah   0.75   1.00
Dirk Nowitzki   1.10   1.15
Zaza Pachulia   0.73   0.76
Nikola Pekovic   1.00   0.75
K. Perkins   0.55   0.57
Miles Plumlee   0.86   0.89
Jsaon Smith   1.06   ---
J. Valanciunas   0.89   0.76
Nikola Vucevic   0.96   0.88

Only Brooklyn, Chicago, and Cleveland have more points per possession on post-ups than on their average play.  Some teams are significantly worse on post-ups.  The numbers for individual big men suggest that pounding the ball inside is probably not a great strategy.

Some people seem to treat good post offense as practically automatic point manufacturing.  Maybe it isn't that important for the Celtics to seek out guys with nifty post moves and you want your interior offense to be more about people catching balls in the paint and scoring on assisted plays.

There's a lot more to post play than whether or not the person posting up scores.

[slamtheking]

didn't see Al Jefferson in the stats.  one of the best post players in the game would make a difference regarding the effectiveness of post offense

[BballTim]

When he was introduced as Lakers coach, Mike D'Antoni said during the press conference, "One of the least efficient plays in basketball is a straight post up."

I decided to look into that at mysynergysports.com

Here are the Eastern Conference teams with the PPP for all plays and for post-ups:

      Overall   Post-Up
Atlanta      0.96   0.92
Boston      0.86   0.84
Brooklyn   0.89   0.95
Charlotte   0.84   0.55
Chicago      0.88   0.95
Cleveland   0.84   0.88
Detroit      0.84   0.76
Indiana      0.92   0.73
Milwaukee   0.84   0.74
Miami      1.05   1.02
New York   0.88   0.83
Orlando      0.90   0.89
Philadelphia   0.88   0.83
Toronto      0.89   0.68
Washington   0.90   0.76

I decided to also look at every player who has started at least six games this season who is either 6'10" or more and averaging double digit scoring or who is listed on b-r.com as a center.

L Aldridge   0.93   0.88
Omer Asik   0.85   0.67
Andrea Bargnani   1.01   0.50
Andrew Bogut   0.85   0.58
Chris Bosh   1.22   1.43
D. Cousins   0.90   0.79
Anthony Davis   1.09   0.57
S. Dalembert   0.94   0.00
Andre Drummond   1.1   0.75
Tim Duncan   0.77   0.87
Derrick Favors   0.87   0.85
Marc Gasol   0.95   0.95
Pau Gasol   0.77   0.71
Marcin Gortat   0.94   0.63
Blake Griffin   1.02   0.93
Spencer Hawes   1.06   0.86
Roy Hibbert   0.90   0.80
Al Horford   0.97   0.83
Dwight Howard   0.96   0.68
Serge Ibaka   1.02   0.73
DeAndre Jordan   0.98   1.00
Enes Kanter   0.94   0.77
Brook Lopez   1.14   1.20
Robin Lopez   0.89   1.05
Kevin Love   1.01   0.85
Greg Monroe   0.90   0.78
Nene      1.08   0.92
Joakim Noah   0.75   1.00
Dirk Nowitzki   1.10   1.15
Zaza Pachulia   0.73   0.76
Nikola Pekovic   1.00   0.75
K. Perkins   0.55   0.57
Miles Plumlee   0.86   0.89
Jsaon Smith   1.06   ---
J. Valanciunas   0.89   0.76
Nikola Vucevic   0.96   0.88

Only Brooklyn, Chicago, and Cleveland have more points per possession on post-ups than on their average play.  Some teams are significantly worse on post-ups.  The numbers for individual big men suggest that pounding the ball inside is probably not a great strategy.

Some people seem to treat good post offense as practically automatic point manufacturing.  Maybe it isn't that important for the Celtics to seek out guys with nifty post moves and you want your interior offense to be more about people catching balls in the paint and scoring on assisted plays.

  Your list seems to have missed Sully, whose .98 ppp on post ups is 8th in the league.

[LooseCannon]

didn't see Al Jefferson in the stats.  one of the best post players in the game would make a difference regarding the effectiveness of post offense

He didn't make the cutoff of six games started.  Neither did Sullinger.

[Donoghus]

Post offense is probably over-rated but having quality bigs down low isn't, IMO.

I still like the idea of building inside/out rather than vice-versa.

[2short]

post offense isn't what it used to be
elvin hayes, kareem, akeem, mchale and even shaq

who reminds you of them in todays game?

you do need some what of a post offense just for inside out play, guys standing at 3 pt line doing a weave, dribbling or passing back and forth is pretty easy to defend

[Mr October]

Personally, I'm a fan of having a diversified offensive approach, so that you can attack your opponents' weaknesses and you've got something else to fall back on during games when the legs just aren't there.

I agree. You want a versatile offense. And every single championship team I can think of had a low or high post option they could go to, at least on occasion.

[Snakehead]

There's a lot more to post play than whether or not the person posting up scores.

Exactly.  It draws double teams, creates spacing, racks up fouls on bigs, allows better looks at the best three point shot (corner three).  It's a useful tool.

I don't know how you can say this board rates post offense "x" but it's a useful weapon that improves your whole attack.