AInge says Rondo will miss first 20- 30 games. What's our win record now?

[Who]

I think they're about a 25 win caliber team without Rondo and a 35 win team with him.

So high 20s, low 30s. A draft pick in the 7-9 range.

[JSD]

I bet he end ups up missing more. Especially as the losses start piling up. I'm thinking Pierce and the Celtics 2007 all over again.

[Celtics18]

By the way, Chambers, hysterical thread title.  I listened to those clips you posted, and I guess I must have missed something.  I certainly didn't hear him say anything remotely claiming that Rondo will miss the first 20 to 30 games. 

Basically, we are back to where we always were.  We have no idea when Rondo will return, but we'd be very surprised if it was on opening night.

Huh? They both said he's out till at least December. That's at least 20 games. We don't know when in December.

I'll take a bet on his return month if youre so confident it's earlier?
You are right though, I should have put 41+ wins option too.

I'm being 100% serious on the December return. You probably know Ainge's angle in these scenarios and when he'd be 'shocked' to see Rondo play opening night and all states he doesn't think he'll be ready till at least December...this backed up by Stevens' statement about December and Ainge's history of injury return dates....
He's missing at least 19 games lol.
I'll bet on it.

I don't know why, but the irresponsibility of sports journalism is a huge pet peeve of mine.  I think it was Chris Forsberg who was the nexus of misinformation when he tweeted that "Ainge suggests Rondo will be out until December."

When I listened to the tape, I never heard neither Ainge nor coach Stevens say anything about December or give any specific number of missed games estimate.

Rondo may well be out until December, but I just can't stand when misinformation gets spread as fact.  It happens all the time, not just in sports journalism.  It's really annoying.

[fantankerous]

By the way, Chambers, hysterical thread title.  I listened to those clips you posted, and I guess I must have missed something.  I certainly didn't hear him say anything remotely claiming that Rondo will miss the first 20 to 30 games. 

Basically, we are back to where we always were.  We have no idea when Rondo will return, but we'd be very surprised if it was on opening night.

Huh? They both said he's out till at least December. That's at least 20 games. We don't know when in December.

I'll take a bet on his return month if youre so confident it's earlier?
You are right though, I should have put 41+ wins option too.

I'm being 100% serious on the December return. You probably know Ainge's angle in these scenarios and when he'd be 'shocked' to see Rondo play opening night and all states he doesn't think he'll be ready till at least December...this backed up by Stevens' statement about December and Ainge's history of injury return dates....
He's missing at least 19 games lol.
I'll bet on it.

I don't know why, but the irresponsibility of sports journalism is a huge pet peeve of mine.  I think it was Chris Forsberg who was the nexus of misinformation when he tweeted that "Ainge suggests Rondo will be out until December."

When I listened to the tape, I never heard neither Ainge nor coach Stevens say anything about December or give any specific number of missed games estimate.

Rondo may well be out until December, but I just can't stand when misinformation gets spread as fact.  It happens all the time, not just in sports journalism.  It's really annoying.

You'll have to save your sermon for another occasion because Ainge said early December on Toucher and Rich.  Forsberg only reported the facts this time.

[chambers]

By the way, Chambers, hysterical thread title.  I listened to those clips you posted, and I guess I must have missed something.  I certainly didn't hear him say anything remotely claiming that Rondo will miss the first 20 to 30 games. 

Basically, we are back to where we always were.  We have no idea when Rondo will return, but we'd be very surprised if it was on opening night.

Huh? They both said he's out till at least December. That's at least 20 games. We don't know when in December.

I'll take a bet on his return month if youre so confident it's earlier?
You are right though, I should have put 41+ wins option too.

I'm being 100% serious on the December return. You probably know Ainge's angle in these scenarios and when he'd be 'shocked' to see Rondo play opening night and all states he doesn't think he'll be ready till at least December...this backed up by Stevens' statement about December and Ainge's history of injury return dates....
He's missing at least 19 games lol.
I'll bet on it.

You know you're actually correct that neither of them used December at any stage in those 2 clips.
I was thinking of the Radio interview on 98.5
So technically you are correct- we still aren't (date wise) an more in the know. I do get the feeling that Ainge is making excuses as to why he won't be ready.

My other thought is that looking at the November schedule- we have 18 games in that one month with multiple back to backs- a very stressful schedule on a new team. So if he's not back by opening night- maybe he's back by game 10, but I doubt he plays in all of those games.

I'm still saying he's back toward end of December at the earliest.



On a funny note I thought it was pretty funny to see Ainge say he hasn't met Gerald Wallace yet. haha.

[Tnerb02]

We will be pretty bad. I would be surprised if this team wins 25 games. Also I could see Rondo staying out longer if we are really atrocious.

[ddb]

okay so this basically answers what we've all been wondering.  Ainge has zero plans to win this year.  If Rondo misses 20-30 games that really means he's missing 30-50 games because without him there's NO WAY this team will survive the first month of the season.  tough schedule, no PG.  New faces everywhere.  No need to rush Rondo back now.
With Rondo this team is a playoff team.  Without him they will stink out of the gate and never recover. 

I'm sure Ainge is thrilled and will be spending a lot of time watching college hoops this season.

 

[Tr1boy]

How about last year when people were saying goodbye to the playoffs when rondo went down.  The passing will be madeup by others. Ab and lee will form once again a terrifying defensive duo.

Also there is no barbosa or terry as the 2nd unit guys but i do feel optimistic with brooks, pressey, bogans providing some decent effort/production

Again the main thing without rondo is potential passing issues (bc thats his bread and butter) and it could be made up utilizing passing from other guys like sully, oly, green etc.

Rondos biggest miss will be come playoff time.

[mmmmm]

I sorta went through this break-down in the 'tank' thread, but here it is anyway:

First off, most folks know that I am firmly in the "I don't think we should tank" crowd.   I've gone on at length about the reasons why, and I've also asserted that the talent on this roster doesn't look, to me, like a 'tank' roster.   I'm also normally very averse to making predictions since every season tends to have several major, unforeseeable events happen.

That said, things look grim.

I'm going to assume that Rondo misses all of November, but optimistically, he comes back pretty strong in December.  I'm also assuming that we otherwise stay fairly healthy and no major trades changing everything up (which is not a good assumption with Danny).

Given those assumptions:

October:  Home opener against the Raptors.  Adrenalin and home court count big in the NBA.  Yay!  We start out: 1-0

November:  10 of our next 15 (and 11 of our the 18) games are on the road.  The teams we play isn't the worst, but the road is tough no matter who you are playing.  In the NBA, it is especially brutal on young teams.   Go look at the road records of the 'young' playoff teams last year (i.e., Warriors, etc).   I predict that, with no Rondo, we should consider it a 'success' when we win just 6 games in November.   7-12

December:  Rondo's back.  Much more friendly - 9 games in the garden and only 3 on the road.  More practice dates available.   I predict we win 7 of the 12, doubling our win total and bringing our record at the turn of the new year to:  14-17

January:   Ugh.  And then the air comes out. The first two weeks are going to be pure hell.  The whole month is bad, but it starts with @Bulls, then home the next day against NO, but then a brutal, awful road trip against:  OKC, Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors & Blazers!   We then com home ... to face the Rockets!   Again, ugh.    We could go 1-7 in that.  The last two weeks include games against the Heat, Thunder, Nets & Knicks.   I'm as optimistic as they come - and at least we get the Lakers at home that month, but seriously, it is very hard for me to see us doing better than 4 wins that month, bringing us to:  18-30

Okay.  that looks pretty bad.  At that point, we may have one of the 5 worst records in the league.   That may be the pivot point where Danny decides he has to 'manage' us into the lottery somehow (trade/sit players, whatever).   But if he doesn't, and he 'plays through', it gets better.

February:  This month has several winnable games including the 76ers, Magic, Kings, Bucks - and assuming that a lot of the youngsters have matured their games and we are actually healthy, I can actually see us winning this month, 6-5, bringing us to a more hopeful: 24-35.

March:  Nine home games and only six on the road.   Only about 4-5 games against weaker opponents, though.   Probably fair to expect about a 6-9 record for the month.  So:  30-44

April:  Finally, Spring is in the air!  Believe it or not, while one or two of these teams might surprise, all eight games are, from this far off, potentially winnable games (assuming we haven't punted the season).   I don't expect we'll win them all, of course.   But the team could finish with a flourish to end up around 36-46

Obviously, you should put huge error bars around all such predictions.   We don't know exactly when Rondo will come back nor how healthy the team will otherwise be or how well the players will eventually jell together (or not) or what other transactions Danny might pull off.   There will always be one or two 'surprise' teams as well as one or two 'disappointment' teams that will be a lot stronger or weaker than we are projecting right now.  I could easily see us winning less than 30 or winning more than 40.

But given my assumptions above, a win total in the mid-to-high 30s seems like a reasonable projection at this point.

FWIW, the Bucks snuck in with the 8th seed last year with 38 wins.  The previous season, the 76ers, Mavericks, Nuggets & Jazz snuck in with only 35, 36, 38 & 36, respectively.

This win total puts us in line for a draft pick somewhere around the 13th or so. 

[D.o.s.]

I'm sticking with 26, 'cause I don't believe Rondo'll be ready to go December 1st, but Mmmmmmm's breakdown is pretty well thought out.

[wdleehi]

I am stuck in that high 20s to low 30s range. 


Sort of depends how many team over look the Celtics and come in and play sleepy.

[Birdman]

Im saying 20 if we lucky maybe 25

[SHAQATTACK]

23 ...maybe ......might be more if Rondo is his oldself .

Lottery here we come 


Bigs have hurt feet already and have not even had training camp. People all ready down.


The cheerleaders maybe playing before the season ends.

Now that I think of it ....might not be so,bad to watch 

[fantankerous]

I sorta went through this break-down in the 'tank' thread, but here it is anyway:

First off, most folks know that I am firmly in the "I don't think we should tank" crowd.   I've gone on at length about the reasons why, and I've also asserted that the talent on this roster doesn't look, to me, like a 'tank' roster.   I'm also normally very averse to making predictions since every season tends to have several major, unforeseeable events happen.

That said, things look grim.

I'm going to assume that Rondo misses all of November, but optimistically, he comes back pretty strong in December.  I'm also assuming that we otherwise stay fairly healthy and no major trades changing everything up (which is not a good assumption with Danny).

Given those assumptions:

October:  Home opener against the Raptors.  Adrenalin and home court count big in the NBA.  Yay!  We start out: 1-0

November:  10 of our next 15 (and 11 of our the 18) games are on the road.  The teams we play isn't the worst, but the road is tough no matter who you are playing.  In the NBA, it is especially brutal on young teams.   Go look at the road records of the 'young' playoff teams last year (i.e., Warriors, etc).   I predict that, with no Rondo, we should consider it a 'success' when we win just 6 games in November.   7-12

December:  Rondo's back.  Much more friendly - 9 games in the garden and only 3 on the road.  More practice dates available.   I predict we win 7 of the 12, doubling our win total and bringing our record at the turn of the new year to:  14-17

January:   Ugh.  And then the air comes out. The first two weeks are going to be pure hell.  The whole month is bad, but it starts with @Bulls, then home the next day against NO, but then a brutal, awful road trip against:  OKC, Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors & Blazers!   We then com home ... to face the Rockets!   Again, ugh.    We could go 1-7 in that.  The last two weeks include games against the Heat, Thunder, Nets & Knicks.   I'm as optimistic as they come - and at least we get the Lakers at home that month, but seriously, it is very hard for me to see us doing better than 4 wins that month, bringing us to:  18-30

Okay.  that looks pretty bad.  At that point, we may have one of the 5 worst records in the league.   That may be the pivot point where Danny decides he has to 'manage' us into the lottery somehow (trade/sit players, whatever).   But if he doesn't, and he 'plays through', it gets better.

February:  This month has several winnable games including the 76ers, Magic, Kings, Bucks - and assuming that a lot of the youngsters have matured their games and we are actually healthy, I can actually see us winning this month, 6-5, bringing us to a more hopeful: 24-35.

March:  Nine home games and only six on the road.   Only about 4-5 games against weaker opponents, though.   Probably fair to expect about a 6-9 record for the month.  So:  30-44

April:  Finally, Spring is in the air!  Believe it or not, while one or two of these teams might surprise, all eight games are, from this far off, potentially winnable games (assuming we haven't punted the season).   I don't expect we'll win them all, of course.   But the team could finish with a flourish to end up around 36-46

Obviously, you should put huge error bars around all such predictions.   We don't know exactly when Rondo will come back nor how healthy the team will otherwise be or how well the players will eventually jell together (or not) or what other transactions Danny might pull off.   There will always be one or two 'surprise' teams as well as one or two 'disappointment' teams that will be a lot stronger or weaker than we are projecting right now.  I could easily see us winning less than 30 or winning more than 40.

But given my assumptions above, a win total in the mid-to-high 30s seems like a reasonable projection at this point.

FWIW, the Bucks snuck in with the 8th seed last year with 38 wins.  The previous season, the 76ers, Mavericks, Nuggets & Jazz snuck in with only 35, 36, 38 & 36, respectively.

This win total puts us in line for a draft pick somewhere around the 13th or so.

I don't think 7-5 is a reasonable expectation for December.  We have a brutal one week stretch where we play the Nets, Knicks, Clippers and Knicks.  We also play @Indiana on the second game of a back-to-back at the end of the month.  And the Celtics aren't clearly better than any of the remaining seven teams we play.  I think a 4-8 month is more reasonable.

[mmmmm]

I sorta went through this break-down in the 'tank' thread, but here it is anyway:

First off, most folks know that I am firmly in the "I don't think we should tank" crowd.   I've gone on at length about the reasons why, and I've also asserted that the talent on this roster doesn't look, to me, like a 'tank' roster.   I'm also normally very averse to making predictions since every season tends to have several major, unforeseeable events happen.

That said, things look grim.

I'm going to assume that Rondo misses all of November, but optimistically, he comes back pretty strong in December.  I'm also assuming that we otherwise stay fairly healthy and no major trades changing everything up (which is not a good assumption with Danny).

Given those assumptions:

October:  Home opener against the Raptors.  Adrenalin and home court count big in the NBA.  Yay!  We start out: 1-0

November:  10 of our next 15 (and 11 of our the 18) games are on the road.  The teams we play isn't the worst, but the road is tough no matter who you are playing.  In the NBA, it is especially brutal on young teams.   Go look at the road records of the 'young' playoff teams last year (i.e., Warriors, etc).   I predict that, with no Rondo, we should consider it a 'success' when we win just 6 games in November.   7-12

December:  Rondo's back.  Much more friendly - 9 games in the garden and only 3 on the road.  More practice dates available.   I predict we win 7 of the 12, doubling our win total and bringing our record at the turn of the new year to:  14-17

January:   Ugh.  And then the air comes out. The first two weeks are going to be pure hell.  The whole month is bad, but it starts with @Bulls, then home the next day against NO, but then a brutal, awful road trip against:  OKC, Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors & Blazers!   We then com home ... to face the Rockets!   Again, ugh.    We could go 1-7 in that.  The last two weeks include games against the Heat, Thunder, Nets & Knicks.   I'm as optimistic as they come - and at least we get the Lakers at home that month, but seriously, it is very hard for me to see us doing better than 4 wins that month, bringing us to:  18-30

Okay.  that looks pretty bad.  At that point, we may have one of the 5 worst records in the league.   That may be the pivot point where Danny decides he has to 'manage' us into the lottery somehow (trade/sit players, whatever).   But if he doesn't, and he 'plays through', it gets better.

February:  This month has several winnable games including the 76ers, Magic, Kings, Bucks - and assuming that a lot of the youngsters have matured their games and we are actually healthy, I can actually see us winning this month, 6-5, bringing us to a more hopeful: 24-35.

March:  Nine home games and only six on the road.   Only about 4-5 games against weaker opponents, though.   Probably fair to expect about a 6-9 record for the month.  So:  30-44

April:  Finally, Spring is in the air!  Believe it or not, while one or two of these teams might surprise, all eight games are, from this far off, potentially winnable games (assuming we haven't punted the season).   I don't expect we'll win them all, of course.   But the team could finish with a flourish to end up around 36-46

Obviously, you should put huge error bars around all such predictions.   We don't know exactly when Rondo will come back nor how healthy the team will otherwise be or how well the players will eventually jell together (or not) or what other transactions Danny might pull off.   There will always be one or two 'surprise' teams as well as one or two 'disappointment' teams that will be a lot stronger or weaker than we are projecting right now.  I could easily see us winning less than 30 or winning more than 40.

But given my assumptions above, a win total in the mid-to-high 30s seems like a reasonable projection at this point.

FWIW, the Bucks snuck in with the 8th seed last year with 38 wins.  The previous season, the 76ers, Mavericks, Nuggets & Jazz snuck in with only 35, 36, 38 & 36, respectively.

This win total puts us in line for a draft pick somewhere around the 13th or so.

I don't think 7-5 is a reasonable expectation for December.  We have a brutal one week stretch where we play the Nets, Knicks, Clippers and Knicks.  We also play @Indiana on the second game of a back-to-back at the end of the month.  And the Celtics aren't clearly better than any of the remaining seven teams we play.  I think a 4-8 month is more reasonable.

Those are reasonable caveates - but I put a lot of stock in home-road as a big factor in the NBA, especially with young teams.   Also, with only 12 games, there are more off-days and practice days.  Historically, that tends to really help teams out.   In the end, you could be right, so take away 3 wins there ... but maybe they pick those 3 wins up elsewhere in the season.   That's called 'noise' around the projection.

Like I said, I can easily see us winning fewer than 30 ... or more than 40.