Starting Point Guard thru December?

[Interceptor]

I dunno.  I really don't know if I believe there has to be a trade off and I don't believe athletes who are good at both offense and defense ever 'choose' to de-emphasize their effort on one end in favor of the other.

I think good athletes put their effort out towards what they are good at and if they are good at both ends of the court they will put out a strong effort on both ends.

This gets into intangibles and things we can never know, of course (What is going on in Kobe's brain while he's playing defense?  Is he thinking about the next offensive possession?).   I just am skeptical of this whole 'can't expend energy on both defense and offense' meme that has emerged around here the last couple of seasons.

They've only got so much gas in the tank, no matter how good they are. You saw what happened to KG or PP at the end of games offensively, when they played too many minutes. Hard to have a good jumper with dead legs, or maintain the speed needed for offensive/defensive moves.

Although that's purely a physical thing, not (necessarily) a mental thing. Kobe doesn't have any excuses for ball-watching, naturally.

[mmmmm]

I dunno.  I really don't know if I believe there has to be a trade off and I don't believe athletes who are good at both offense and defense ever 'choose' to de-emphasize their effort on one end in favor of the other.

I think good athletes put their effort out towards what they are good at and if they are good at both ends of the court they will put out a strong effort on both ends.

This gets into intangibles and things we can never know, of course (What is going on in Kobe's brain while he's playing defense?  Is he thinking about the next offensive possession?).   I just am skeptical of this whole 'can't expend energy on both defense and offense' meme that has emerged around here the last couple of seasons.

They've only got so much gas in the tank, no matter how good they are. You saw what happened to KG or PP at the end of games offensively, when they played too many minutes. Hard to have a good jumper with dead legs, or maintain the speed needed for offensive/defensive moves.

Although that's purely a physical thing, not (necessarily) a mental thing. Kobe doesn't have any excuses for ball-watching, naturally.

I'm not saying they have infinite gas in the tank.

I'm just saying that athletes tend to play hard at what they are good at when they are doing those things.

And if they are good at both ends, I don't think they ever 'choose' to not play hard at one of them.

[gar]

Alot of good points; but main issues are simple - Size and 3pt shooting!

You can't have Bradley and Pressey on the floor at the same time and Rondo and Bradley will not always work. Would rather see Bradley and Crawford sharing at PG to start. I see Pressey and Lee working. Pressey needs to play with a defender with size. Brooks and Crawford together would be a defensive nightmare.

1. Bradley (D) Crawford (O/A)
2a. Pressey (Assists) Lee (D)
2b. Lee or Bradley (D) Brooks (O)

Whoever has the most 3pt. swag will get the most minutes. Right now that is a huge question mark.

I think the biggest surprise with Olynyk was his versatility - namely passing and 3pt shooting. That is why he will play big minutes.

[gar]

Also college coaches are used to shorter periods with tighter rotations. This might actually be something that would work with this particular team if they can keep the tempo up by rotating people in and out.

[Galeto]

Well if you followed the links, you'd find that there are comments about his passing - and in particular they mention shortcomings.

And yes, I myself have always projected Bradley as a 2 and not a 1.   But that doesn't mean it isn't worth trying him out at the role.   This is a development season and the team is going to make development decisions.   That's my point that this decision is about far more than the passing and turnover statistics from a limited amount of NBA playing time.

Then why didn't you include those comments in the first place?  I mean, isn't this thread supposed to be about his potential to be a point guard?  Your quotes only showed that Bradley was thought to be a great athlete with a fine mid-range shot.  You went through the draftexpress page about Bradley, copying and pasting, to show nothing relevant.  If it was your contention that Bradley was a point guard in high school and has been held back from playing one ever since, well, your draftexpress sources disagree with you. For instance:

   "Even though he’s clearly not a point guard, and his current limitations are fairly evident, Bradley has the makings of an intriguing long-term prospect that we’ll definitely have to keep an eye on right away in the Big 12."

Or "Though clearly strictly a shooting guard"

But unless you feel they are incompetent, Danny and his staff aren't going to make those kinds of decisions without basis.   They almost certainly have more information about and familiarity with Bradley's raw capabilities than we do.

Thanks for "enlightening" me about this.  I was confused for a minute that I had real power and was truly deciding what position Avery will play next season.  You seem to be the only one confusing internet discussion and its reach to the outside world. 

[Galeto]

I'm a bit surprised this at myself but the numbers I just looked at in the link I published above, say Bradley is possibly the WORST choice on this team to fill in at PG.

There a few caveats because of Bradley's injury, inexperience etc, but his performance has been his performance and his game (statistically) just doesn't lend to him playing the position.

His assists/TO % are abysmal, he can't hasn't shown an ability to create shots for himself or others.

Don't get me wrong, I like they guy, but not as a PG from what I'm seeing.

LOL - here I am - a tried and convicted, 'stats guy' - to say:  "Stats don't mean xxxxx!"  and "Try watching the games with your eyes!!!"

More specifically, that article is, imho, once again simply a very poor usage of statistics.

I'm not saying that Bradley might not be 'the worst' choice to fill in at PG.  But that analysis in that article is pretty much useless to me if I want to ask that question.

Measurement without a normalized context is not very useful.   None of the numbers used in that 'analysis' have a normalized context and they are from very small samples.   Remarking that Bradley falls far from the prototypical PG in Adrien's 'cluster' analysis is silly.   Bradley last year was only playing 'PG' in that he was bringing the ball up.   He was almost never initiating the offense and not in a role to generate assists.  Heck, even in his SG role, his expectations have been quite different from what is expected of other SGs.   Last year overall was just a bizarre, twisted tale of make-shift, changing lineups with lots of our players being asked to do things they weren't expected to do.

The are just a ton of extraneous factors that make that sort of linear comparison silly.  Aside from the injuries and lack of training camp and 'inserted into a new role' issues, there are larger issues of what the team is trying to do in development of each of these players and where each player is in his development.

Folks have a tendency to forget that Bradley is still only 22 years old, with only portions of his three seasons under his belt.  He's too young and too untried to really say whether he can or can't do certain things.  To Ainge and Stevens, he represents a lot of raw athletic potential that they want to mold.  They are going to push him through their process and see if he can be shaped to become what they want.   They aren't going to NOT do that just because, at the moment, a player like Jordan Crawford might look like he has better PG skills-related stats.   Jordan Crawford is two years older and they know who he is.

When Bradley was in H.S., he was often the primary initiator of his team's offense.  He was good at that. Rated neck & neck with John Wall as the top 2 players in the nation.

Here are a couple of scouting comments from his performance at the National Prep Showcase (absolute top H.S players in the nation) in the fall of his senior year:

Avery Bradley (#10 Scout, #8 Rivals, #15 ESPN) was hands down the top performer here at the National Prep Showcase, willing his team to a 2-0 record while putting up gaudy numbers in the meantime.

and:

The Washington native is an absolute nightmare to guard offensively. The bread and butter of his game centers around his pull-up mid-range jumper, which he can create and get off at will. Capable of stopping on the drop of a dime, he gets outstanding elevation with a high release point on his pull-up. When combined with his great first step, he is able to get defenders back on their feet with his strong initial drive, and then rise up before they are able to even contest his jumper.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2fwlzCONN
http://www.draftexpress.com

And then, at the end of his senior year, he was still getting similar accolades.  This one is from the ESPN RISE National High School Invitational:

After a weekend in which he dominated some of the top teams in the country, Avery Bradley (#10 Scout, #8 Rivals, #1 ESPN) has recently risen to the number one spot on ESPN's rankings of the class of 2009. Having already been scouted extensively by DraftExpress at several other events this year, this write up will be short.

The future Texas Longhorn had all of his weapons on display this past weekend in Maryland. He scored a tournament high 27 points in his second game of the tournament, doing the bulk of his damage with his stellar mid-range game. Bradley is extremely difficult to cover due to his excellent quickness, but also because of his ability to stop on a dime and elevate with a smooth shooting stroke. The McDonald's All-American dunk champion was able to get out in transition and wow the crowd a couple of times during the course of his three games with several impressive throw-downs.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2fwmvUBTH
http://www.draftexpress.com

So Bradley clearly showed potential to be a 'play creator' and offensive go-to guy back then.  He wasn't being scouted as just a pure defensive player.

However, when he was at Texas, he was basically told to stay outside and shoot from the perimeter and play D.   He was mediocre at the former, but terrific at the latter.  His offensive numbers were kinda lame.  He declared for the draft anyway and so he fell all the way to #19 where we got him.   He also injured his ankle in a pre-draft workout and so ended up missing training camp and sitting on the bench for much of his rookie year. 

During that year, though, he did go spend 9 games with the Red Claws in Maine.   During that stretch, when he got a solid 32+ mpg, he was once again used more like he was in High School:  as a primary offensive weapon, including play initiator.  His pace-adjusted points and assist numbers during that stretch were almost twice anything he posted at Texas or with the Celics (yes, even better than Bradley was in 2011-12).

So, there have been some small stretches (H.S., D-League) where Bradley was asked to play a more commanding role on offense and he has shown flashes of brilliance.  Those have been, of course, at lower competitive levels (though against a lot of guys who are now in the Association).   He has not been asked yet to really do that at the NBA level.   We don't really know if he can do it at this level yet.

Hopefully, he can stay healthy this year and we will find out.  He may fail.  But the Celtics need to find out before they decide how much to pay him.

And yeah, I know, some very vocal fans on this blog like to insist that they can already 'see it' that he can't and never will and assert so loudly and often.  But Danny & Co probably have seen a bit more of Bradley than we have and they will be the final judges.

I agree that Bradley wasn't the point guard after Rondo went game despite bringing up the ball more times than not.  But to state that Bradley didn't have the chances to accumulate assists is just wrong.  He was given the second most chances after Pierce to use screens off the dribble and he almost exclusively used them to shoot.  That's on him.  The bigger point is that players who can pass find ways to make plays for their teammates, whether they're playing point guard or not.  The sample size for Bradley was not small, unless you consider the entire second half a small sample size, in which case, I guess you also have to downplay Jeff Green's numbers.  Jordan Crawford was basically told to be a no-conscience chucker by Doc and he still managed to put up impressive passing numbers.  He didn't handle the ball any more than Bradley did.

Bradley's passing numbers have so far to go to even resemble a fringe point guard's numbers that I think it's only fair to wonder whether he has the chops to be one.  That was what I took from the article anyway despite its absence of stuff like "normalized context." 

[mmmmm]

I agree that Bradley wasn't the point guard after Rondo went game despite bringing up the ball more times than not.  But to state that Bradley didn't have the chances to accumulate assists is just wrong. He was given the second most chances after Pierce to use screens off the dribble and he almost exclusively used them to shoot.  That's on him. 

Of course that (the bolded text) would be wrong.  I never stated that, of course.

As for the part in italics, um ... not so simple.   That's also on his role in the offense.  If the D is leaving him open off the pick (because they'd rather guard Green/Pierce/Terry/KG) then any coach almost certainly would want him to shoot.

Bradley actually took almost half his shots (46%) within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, with a relatively low assisted rate of just 48%, suggesting a lot of them were probably in transition and not off half-court plays.   The team as a whole only took 37% of it's shots that early in the clock and over half those (57%) were assisted.

For shots later in the clock, Bradley's assisted rates jump way up (68-75% over the last 10 seconds of the clock)- and are notably much higher than the assisted rates of the team as a whole  (59-66%) during those portions of the clock.   These suggest that, once in the half court offense, he was playing primarily off the ball and receiving the pass to take a shot.

And frankly, these numbers match up pretty much with what I remember seeing.   On fast breaks, Bradley was typically one of the two guys (or the only guy) down the court and often taking the shot.   On other plays, even if he brought the ball up, he'd flip it to Pierce and go into his responsibilities moving off the ball, pretty much same as if Rondo was there.   If he got open and got the ball his job was to shoot.   He was usually no more than the 4th option as well, which means in the half court he was not usually getting the ball early enough to continue the play onward.

[manl_lui]

Anyone on the Celtics roster can be the starting pg. Nobody had much experience playing point beside Pressey (in which he hasn't proven himself yet). All the other guards are shooting guards, and scoring guards at that! Bradley is a defense specialist. I don't see our offense being good without Rondo in the lineup. Maybe have Green pound the ball until Rondo comes back in Dec.

Though I won't be surprised if they use Lee/Brooks/Pressey as primary ball handlers until Rondo comes back. I just do not see Bradley as our primary point guard and making offense.