To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question

[chambers]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league. If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East.

In my view, the Bucks will be at least as good defensively as they were this past season, and they should be able to score points more efficiently now that they've ditched Ellis and Jennings, two high volume shooters who never scored enough to justify their usage rates.

If the Celtics were getting a full, completely healthy season out of Rondo, I might feel differently.  But I expect Rondo to miss 20-30 games, so in my view it's not going to be all that close.

We'll see.  I just think they'll struggle to create offense.  For all their flaws as high volume inefficient scorers, Ellis and Jennings could both create opportunites for that team.  Knight and Mayo seem like complementary guys to me, not like guys who will be able to handle being tasked with running the show.

I agree, and there will be games where Mayo and Knight each try to do too much and it hurts them. 

Overall, though, I think they'll be forced to spread the offense around, and they have the personnel to take a lot of high percentage shots -- lots of threes and dunks / put-backs. 

I don't expect them to be a very good offensive team, but I doubt they'll be worse than last year.  They should be even better defensively.

I don't necessarily want to continue to quibble over the Bucks roster or their prospects for this season.  Suffice it to say that you have a higher opinion of the team from MIlwaukee than I do. 

I agree that the range of where we could end up in this year's standings is fairly vast.  The way I see it is that there are five proven teams in the East--Miami, Brooklyn, Chicago, Indiana, and New York.  I think almost everyone would agree that those are the frontrunners.   I also think that most would agree that the Pistons look like they should slot into the sixth spot (at least, on paper). 

I also think that the bottom three teams look fairly set, as well.  I don't see Philly, Charlotte, or Orlando doing much other than racing to the bottom of the standings.

That leaves six teams in the middle of the pack--Boston, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Atlanta.  From my vantage point, the worst of those rosters are Atlanta and Milwaukee (I am still tempted to lump the Bucks in with that bottom group, but for the sake of humoring you, I'll give them a chance). 

So, I guess, in the end, I think that if things break well for us and break worse for a couple of those other guys (the Hawks look like they'll be missing Lou Williams to start the season, the Wizards will be without Okafor, and it almost goes without saying that the Cavs will probably be without Bynum for a significant portion of the season), we could end up being that seventh or eighth team to make the playoffs in the East. 

It seems to me that your opinion that our ceiling is 9th or 10th place represents at least as much wishful thinking as me thinking that we could snag one of the final playoff spots. 

I mean, really, surely we can potentially beat out three of the Cavs, the Wiz, the Raptors, the Bucks, and the Hawks. 

If you were a Bucks or a Hawks fan, you'd probably be saying their ceiling was somewhere around 9th or 10th, as well. 

Anyway, here's my updated 2014 Eastern Conference standings predictions:

1.  Miami
2.  Brooklyn
3.  Chicago
4.  Indiana
5.  New York
6.  Detroit
7.  Boston
8.  Washington
9.  Cleveland
10.  Toronto
11.  Atlanta
12.  Milwaukee
13.  Charlotte
14.  Philadelphia
15.  Orlando

I'll put my prediction here and we can play 'I told you so' in 10 months time. (or less lol)

1.  Chicago
2.  Miami
3.  Indiana
4.  Brooklyn
5.  New York
6.  Detroit
7.  Cleveland
8.  Atlanta
9.  Washington
10.  Milwaukee*
11.  Toronto*
12.  Boston*
13.  Charlotte
14.  Philadelphia
15.  Orlando

With Toronto, Boston and Milwaukee all in a race for the 10-12th spot.
That's with Rondo. Without Rondo I see us in a fight with Philly and Orlando.
I also see Atlanta going up a bit higher with Milsap and Horford as their front line- Millsap's usage is far better than Josh Smith to me.
Anyway, we shall see!

[Celtics18]

I will reserve all "told you so"s until at least February.

[PhoSita]

Anyway, here's my updated 2014 Eastern Conference standings predictions:

1.  Miami
2.  Brooklyn
3.  Chicago
4.  Indiana
5.  New York
6.  Detroit
7.  Boston
8.  Washington
9.  Cleveland
10.  Toronto
11.  Atlanta
12.  Milwaukee
13.  Charlotte
14.  Philadelphia
15.  Orlando

Other than Milwaukee, I'd also put Atlanta (well) ahead of Boston, and I also expect Washington and Cleveland to do better.  It wouldn't shock me if Toronto or Charlotte were close to or better than the Celtics in terms of record, also.

For Atlanta, I think the combination of Millsap and Horford with a perfectly fine and average point guard in Teague equals at least 40 wins.

As far as Cleveland and Washington, they have young star point guards poised to have really great seasons; while both players have battled injuries, currently they're in better shape than Rondo.  Also, Nene and Varejao are each far superior to any big man on the Celtics.

As for Charlotte and Toronto, they may have superior big men, too (Valanciunas could have a nice year, and Big Al alongside Cody Zeller could be a nice combo), and they will also start the season with healthy point guards who are at least average and have the potential for big games.  Meanwhile the Celtics will start Bradley, Pressey, or Crawford at point guard for the first month or so of the season.



My Eastern Conference standings:

1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Chicago
4. Brooklyn
5. New York
6. Atlanta
7. Detroit
8. Washington
9. Cleveland
10. Milwaukee
11. Charlotte
12. Boston
13. Toronto
14. Orlando
15. Philadelphia

[BASS_THUMPER]

wow

Celtic's will be in the top 5

[LooseCannon]

As far as Cleveland and Washington, they have young star point guards poised to have really great seasons; while both players have battled injuries, currently they're in better shape than Rondo.  Also, Nene and Varejao are each far superior to any big man on the Celtics.

1. The injury to Okafor is a huge blow to Washington's big man rotation.
2. Nene and Varejao are both injury-prone big men and if either guy misses a significant portion of the season, their teams' seasons could go in the toilet.
3. The Cavs brought back Mike Brown as head coach.

Stuff like that means that it would not be shocking to see either team do worse than the Celtics.

[PhoSita]

As far as Cleveland and Washington, they have young star point guards poised to have really great seasons; while both players have battled injuries, currently they're in better shape than Rondo.  Also, Nene and Varejao are each far superior to any big man on the Celtics.

1. The injury to Okafor is a huge blow to Washington's big man rotation.
2. Nene and Varejao are both injury-prone big men and if either guy misses a significant portion of the season, their teams' seasons could go in the toilet.
3. The Cavs brought back Mike Brown as head coach.

Stuff like that means that it would not be shocking to see either team do worse than the Celtics.

No, it would not be shocking.  But I think it's at least as likely that both teams will do better.

I'll take any team with John Wall and Nene starting, or Irving and Varejao starting, over what the Celtics have heading into this season.

[Celtics18]

To be honest, I'm a bit scared of Washington and Cleveland. 


Toronto has a solid looking starting lineup on paper, but they are missing something.  For one thing, even though, I'm constantly looking at the rosters of NBA teams, I can never remember who the heck is on their bench without looking it up. 

Jonas Valanciunas seems to be in the category of "NBA darling" right now, but he's barely old enough to order an alcohol drink in this country, and he averaged like 9 and 6 in his rookie season.  Sure, he's seven foot tall, but he might not actually be a better NBA player than either Jared Sullinger or Kelly Olynyk.

It also bothers me that they have a shooting guard who can't shoot.   And, their small forward isn't a good enough shooter to make up for it.  Lowry's a tough kid, but I don't know if he can be the engine that the Raptors seem to need.

Also, there's the poetic justice angle--the return of the Native Son in 2014.  Now, there's a fan base that I could legitimately see preferring to race to the bottom of the standings to being an eighth seed playoff team. 

[indeedproceed]

As far as Cleveland and Washington, they have young star point guards poised to have really great seasons; while both players have battled injuries, currently they're in better shape than Rondo.  Also, Nene and Varejao are each far superior to any big man on the Celtics.

1. The injury to Okafor is a huge blow to Washington's big man rotation.
2. Nene and Varejao are both injury-prone big men and if either guy misses a significant portion of the season, their teams' seasons could go in the toilet.
3. The Cavs brought back Mike Brown as head coach.

Stuff like that means that it would not be shocking to see either team do worse than the Celtics.

No, it would not be shocking.  But I think it's at least as likely that both teams will do better.

I'll take any team with John Wall and Nene starting, or Irving and Varejao starting, over what the Celtics have heading into this season.

Bradley Beal is also a hell of a player in the making. I did up the numbers at some point but he turned a corner around January or so and turned into an efficient if not lethal scorer. 40+% from 3, 16 points, 5 boards and 3 assists or something. Kinda scary, if he'd played out the season he likely would've challenged Lillard for ROY.

[PhoSita]

As far as Cleveland and Washington, they have young star point guards poised to have really great seasons; while both players have battled injuries, currently they're in better shape than Rondo.  Also, Nene and Varejao are each far superior to any big man on the Celtics.

1. The injury to Okafor is a huge blow to Washington's big man rotation.
2. Nene and Varejao are both injury-prone big men and if either guy misses a significant portion of the season, their teams' seasons could go in the toilet.
3. The Cavs brought back Mike Brown as head coach.

Stuff like that means that it would not be shocking to see either team do worse than the Celtics.

No, it would not be shocking.  But I think it's at least as likely that both teams will do better.

I'll take any team with John Wall and Nene starting, or Irving and Varejao starting, over what the Celtics have heading into this season.

Bradley Beal is also a hell of a player in the making. I did up the numbers at some point but he turned a corner around January or so and turned into an efficient if not lethal scorer. 40+% from 3, 16 points, 5 boards and 3 assists or something. Kinda scary, if he'd played out the season he likely would've challenged Lillard for ROY.

Yeah, I thought about mentioning Beal + Porter, and also the combination of Waiters + Thompson + Bennett.  Out of those 5 guys I feel like there's a solid chance somebody has a breakout year.

[Celtics18]

I've got issues with the Hawks as well.  I seem to be in the minority on this, but I think swapping Smith for Milsap represents a downgrade for that team.  Sure, Smith's poor shot selection is a bone of contention with most fans, and rightly so, but the versatility that he brought on both ends of the floor was a huge factor for them.  He was a matchup problem for defenses as either a small forward or a power forward.  He could take fours off the dribble, and he could overpower threes.  He is also an underrated passer, who was a very good playmaker and offensive creator.  Defensively, I definitely think Milsap is a downgrade as an undersized four next to an undersized five. 

I love Horford, but he's been over his head at center for too long.  He's their best player, and I think this season is going to be an uphill battle for him. 

On the perimeter, the Hawks are seriously bereft of talent.  As Phosita said earlier, Jeff Teague is a "serviceable" NBA point guard, but that's not good enough for the best shot creator on a team that wants to be any good.

To me, Atlanta's bright spot is Dennis Schroeder.  I'd love to see him win the starting PG spot from Teague in this rebuilding year for the Hawks.

[indeedproceed]

I've got issues with the Hawks as well.  I seem to be in the minority on this, but I think swapping Smith for Milsap represents a downgrade for that team.  Sure, Smith's poor shot selection is a bone of contention with most fans, and rightly so, but the versatility that he brought on both ends of the floor was a huge factor for them.  He was a matchup problem for defenses as either a small forward or a power forward.  He could take fours off the dribble, and he could overpower threes.  He is also an underrated passer, who was a very good playmaker and offensive creator.  Defensively, I definitely think Milsap is a downgrade as an undersized four next to an undersized five. 

I think that Millsap's biggest downgrade is on the help defense side of things. As a pick and roll defender and as a man defender especially against the more mobile 4s he's got a leg up on a lot of the league. Probably not Smith, but I don't think Smith's absence will be as evident there. Also, Millsap is among the league's best as generating steals. Not best 4s, best among everyone.

But Smith's ability to cover the floor like a [dang]ed condor isn't something Millsap can replicate. Offensively, I think Millsap is an upgrade, if only for the efficiency, and Smith's ability to 'create' is as often what got him into trouble as anything.

[PhoSita]

I've got issues with the Hawks as well.  I seem to be in the minority on this, but I think swapping Smith for Milsap represents a downgrade for that team.  Sure, Smith's poor shot selection is a bone of contention with most fans, and rightly so, but the versatility that he brought on both ends of the floor was a huge factor for them.  He was a matchup problem for defenses as either a small forward or a power forward.  He could take fours off the dribble, and he could overpower threes.  He is also an underrated passer, who was a very good playmaker and offensive creator.  Defensively, I definitely think Milsap is a downgrade as an undersized four next to an undersized five. 

I love Horford, but he's been over his head at center for too long.  He's their best player, and I think this season is going to be an uphill battle for him. 

On the perimeter, the Hawks are seriously bereft of talent.  As Phosita said earlier, Jeff Teague is a "serviceable" NBA point guard, but that's not good enough for the best shot creator on a team that wants to be any good.

To me, Atlanta's bright spot is Dennis Schroeder.  I'd love to see him win the starting PG spot from Teague in this rebuilding year for the Hawks.

Honestly, for me it comes down to the fact that I think Horford is significantly more valuable than Al Jefferson, and I don't think the Hawks are really any weaker than the Jazz were at the other positions.  The Hawks also play in a much weaker conference.

So what you get is a team that you can pretty safely pencil in for at least 35 wins -- probably closer to 45.

As for the Smith vs Millsap debate, I think Smith is probably a more valuable overall player, but Millsap is more efficient, and probably a better fit next to Horford because he's a better shooter.

Oh yeah, the Hawks also added Elton Brand.

One thing is for sure, I don't know how anybody could compare [Teague - Williams - Korver - Millsap - Horford] to our starting lineup, especially taking Rondo and Sullinger's recovery into consideration, and determine that the Celtics are more likely to have a better record.

[csfansince60s]

Been following the thread for over a week and finally voted.

Having a top 5 pick in this draft will be huge to either use in a trade combined with other assets for a star or for our own use.

All finishing as the 7th or 8th seed in the platoffs will do is stunt our rebuild.

I'm with the guys who say rest Rondo for as long as possible, give the young guys tons of playing time and at the deadline make trades for picks to teams who wanna dump salary and/or are contenders who need a piece to make a run (Hump, Bass, Crash, Bogans, whoever).

Well, if you want us to have a "top 5 pick", then you want us to finish with either the worst or the 2nd worst record.  Because only the worst two records are guaranteed to pick in the top 5.

What do you think our chance of finishing with one of the 2 worst records is?

I was going by the poll above, and should have said "Finish with one of the worst five records in the league." I still go with that option rather than a 1 and done in the playoffs as 7th/8th seed and a lesser draft pick.

Thanks for the correction.

TP

[Celtics18]

I've got issues with the Hawks as well.  I seem to be in the minority on this, but I think swapping Smith for Milsap represents a downgrade for that team.  Sure, Smith's poor shot selection is a bone of contention with most fans, and rightly so, but the versatility that he brought on both ends of the floor was a huge factor for them.  He was a matchup problem for defenses as either a small forward or a power forward.  He could take fours off the dribble, and he could overpower threes.  He is also an underrated passer, who was a very good playmaker and offensive creator.  Defensively, I definitely think Milsap is a downgrade as an undersized four next to an undersized five. 

I love Horford, but he's been over his head at center for too long.  He's their best player, and I think this season is going to be an uphill battle for him. 

On the perimeter, the Hawks are seriously bereft of talent.  As Phosita said earlier, Jeff Teague is a "serviceable" NBA point guard, but that's not good enough for the best shot creator on a team that wants to be any good.

To me, Atlanta's bright spot is Dennis Schroeder.  I'd love to see him win the starting PG spot from Teague in this rebuilding year for the Hawks.

Honestly, for me it comes down to the fact that I think Horford is significantly more valuable than Al Jefferson, and I don't think the Hawks are really any weaker than the Jazz were at the other positions.  The Hawks also play in a much weaker conference.

So what you get is a team that you can pretty safely pencil in for at least 35 wins -- probably closer to 45.

As for the Smith vs Millsap debate, I think Smith is probably a more valuable overall player, but Millsap is more efficient, and probably a better fit next to Horford because he's a better shooter.

Oh yeah, the Hawks also added Elton Brand.

One thing is for sure, I don't know how anybody could compare [Teague - Williams - Korver - Millsap - Horford] to our starting lineup, especially taking Rondo and Sullinger's recovery into consideration, and determine that the Celtics are more likely to have a better record.

Well, I believe Lou Willliams is recovering from knee surgery as well.  Yes, their front line is stronger than ours, but I think we make up for it by having a significantly better lineup at the 1 through 3 positions.

As far as I know, Sully is fairly much pencilled in for being ready to play right now, and I am still hoping that Rondo will be ready very close to opening day.

Derrick Rose's extended recovery time from ACL surgery is an aberration.  The norm seems to be much closer to seven to nine months than twelve months. 

[fantankerous]

I'll add my prediction for eastern conference standings in light of Ainge's acknowledgment that Rondo may not return until early December.

1.  Miami
2.  Brooklyn
3.  Chicago
4.  Indiana
5.  New York
6.  Cleveland
7.  Detroit
8.  Washington
9.  Toronto
10. Atlanta
11. Milwaukee
12. Charlotte
13. Orlando
14. Boston
15. Philadelphia