To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question

[Celtics18]

We'll have to wait and see. I think that Danny isn't aiming for a bottom 3 pick. He'd be happy with something in the top 5-10 range. At 5 he'd see who's still on the board- but from 6-10 he'll look to trade for a star to give Rondo some help. If he feels that trading for a star isn't going to be possible (no teams willing to give up their star for what we have) then he'll move Rondo and then we'll sink to the bottom of the pack.

With Rondo I don't think we'll be a bottom 3 team. Even with Rondo for only half a season I think we're looking at a pick around 5-8.
But if Rondo sits out longer or is traded then we'll be dancing very closely with the bottom of the NBA barrell. In fact if Rondo didn't play a game for us this year or less than 15 games I'd put us at the bottom with Phoenix, Philly and Orlando.

To me, Danny will try to get a star to help Rondo with our projected 6-12 pick as the bait (with a combo of something like Sully or Olynyk + Nets pick) and if that doesn't happen then he'll go all in on the draft and that's when we may see parts of the tank strategy like sitting certain players or letting Olynyk play instead of Humphries etc..

I agree with you that Danny's primary plan is most likely to get another star to pair with Rondo.  If he can pull off a trade using this year's draft pick and/or some other assets, then that's great, but if not, I see no reason to get impatient and trade Rondo away because he couldn't get it done at the first opportunity.

I think that a modicum of patience will be key to this rebuilding process.  Basically, right now, he's got one star player on the team.  That's a head start.  If he trades that one star player away with the hopes of landing another one in the draft, then he'd be moving the team further back in the rebuilding process as opposed to further ahead.
 
As to giving minutes to Olynyk, my hope is that Olynyk is getting minutes by mid-season--not because we are trying to tank, but because he has proven himself to be an NBA player who can produce on the court and help the team win ball games. 

[D.o.s.]

I really hope he becomes a defensive presence--I want every announcer to watch him block a shot and get all "looks like he just checked in... to the Kylnyk!"

Then they high five as Steve Kerr does his patented "this is so beneath me" sigh.

[Finkelskyhook]

There's no tanking happening....Nor should there be.  Danny didn't sign Stevens long-term to start a culture of losing.

[celtics2]

Ooohh we've tanked before.

[mmmmm]

I'd just like to return to a point that Celtic18 made earlier - which is to simply ask the question of 'how low do you expect to go?'.

Even if this team is 'not good' per the supposedly 'realistic and logical' assessments posted on this thread, just how bad do you really expect it to be?

In any given season, there are a ton of factors that occur that are beyond the GM, Coach or player's control that affect the outcome.  Primarily, this means negatives like injuries, but also includes positives like player emergence and 'contract year performances'.

Obviously one of the big swing factors will be when Rondo returns and how effective he is.

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

Looking at the overall talent make-up on this roster, and looking at what is going on elsewhere in the Association, I have a hard time seeing this team end up with one of the 5 worst records. 

In fact, I have a hard time envisioning this team end up with one of the 10 worst records unless either (a) a LOT of bad luck happens (Rondo & others miss most of the season) or (b) Management has Stevens deliberately throw games, M.L. Carr style.

Obviously, I also have a very hard time imagining this team being anywhere close to making a 'contending run'.   They aren't at top 5 team and, to push my analogy, I also have trouble envisioning them as a 'top 10' team.

To me, the 'realistic and logical' expectation seems that they could end up anywhere in the 11th through 20th range.  Either just in the playoffs or just in the lottery.

So, let's say that things generally 'break negative' and they end up somewhere in the 15-20 range.

What does that get you?

If you end up with the 11th slot, you have a slender, split rabbit of a chance (.8%) at the top pick.   You would have a combined 2.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick.  You also have a a 6% chance of dropping to the 12th pick - and a minuscule 1 in 1000 chance of dropping to #13.   More likely (90.7%) you will have the 11th pick.

Do we expect the 11th pick in next year's draft to be transformative?   Is that a 'tank worthy' target?

Right now, Draft Express has 7' 1" center Isiah Austin projected at #11.    Is that the guy that's going to turn the franchise around?

Obviously, the draft will change by next June.   The names floating from 8 - 15 on the mocks right now are:

8:  Andrew Harrison, PG, 6' 5", 207 lb, 18, Kentucky, freshman.
9:  Montrezl Harrell, PF/C, 6' 8", 230 lb, 19, Louisville, sophomore.
10: Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, 6' 6", 20 lb, 19, Barcelona (Oro), International.
11: Isaiah Austin, C, 7' 1", 220 lb, 19, Baylor, sophomore.
12: Glenn Robinson, SF, 6' 6", 210 lb, 19, Michigan, sophomore.
13: Mitch McGary, C, 6' 10", 263 lb, 21, Michigan, sophomore.
14: Wayne Selden, SG, 6' 6", 223 lb, 18, Kansas, freshman.
15: James McAdoo, PF, 6' 9", 226 lb, 20, North Carolina, junior.

Right now, odds are that one of those guys is the prize for 'tanking'.

I would also have to point out that, given the history of mocks a year before the draft, odds are that two or 3 of those guys will slip all the way into the 15-20 range, while some other players will climb up.   Some players may elect to defer for the following year, which will shift everything as well.

Don't get your heart set on any particular player.   Not only is our ultimate draft pick position completely unpredictable at this point, but also so is the exact order of the players to be picked.

In every possible sense, it is a lottery.

[SHAQATTACK]

Franken n Tank


Dis only to tank.

[PhoSita]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league.  If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

[Celtics18]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league.  If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East. 

[PhoSita]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league.  If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East.

In my view, the Bucks will be at least as good defensively as they were this past season, and they should be able to score points more efficiently now that they've ditched Ellis and Jennings, two high volume shooters who never scored enough to justify their usage rates.

If the Celtics were getting a full, completely healthy season out of Rondo, I might feel differently.  But I expect Rondo to miss 20-30 games, so in my view it's not going to be all that close.

[Celtics18]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league.  If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East.

In my view, the Bucks will be at least as good defensively as they were this past season, and they should be able to score points more efficiently now that they've ditched Ellis and Jennings, two high volume shooters who never scored enough to justify their usage rates.

If the Celtics were getting a full, completely healthy season out of Rondo, I might feel differently.  But I expect Rondo to miss 20-30 games, so in my view it's not going to be all that close.

We'll see.  I just think they'll struggle to create offense.  For all their flaws as high volume inefficient scorers, Ellis and Jennings could both create opportunites for that team.  Knight and Mayo seem like complementary guys to me, not like guys who will be able to handle being tasked with running the show. 

[PhoSita]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league.  If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East.

In my view, the Bucks will be at least as good defensively as they were this past season, and they should be able to score points more efficiently now that they've ditched Ellis and Jennings, two high volume shooters who never scored enough to justify their usage rates.

If the Celtics were getting a full, completely healthy season out of Rondo, I might feel differently.  But I expect Rondo to miss 20-30 games, so in my view it's not going to be all that close.

We'll see.  I just think they'll struggle to create offense.  For all their flaws as high volume inefficient scorers, Ellis and Jennings could both create opportunites for that team.  Knight and Mayo seem like complementary guys to me, not like guys who will be able to handle being tasked with running the show.

I agree, and there will be games where Mayo and Knight each try to do too much and it hurts them. 

Overall, though, I think they'll be forced to spread the offense around, and they have the personnel to take a lot of high percentage shots -- lots of threes and dunks / put-backs. 

I don't expect them to be a very good offensive team, but I doubt they'll be worse than last year.  They should be even better defensively.

[Celtics18]

If everything 'broke positive', I could easily see this roster just barely making the playoffs and maybe even winning a series.   

If everything 'broke negative', I could easily see this roster deep in the lottery.

But not everything will go one way.   Some good luck will happen.  Some bad luck will happen.  The 'realistic and logical' view should be somewhere in the middle.   

I agree.  From my perspective, a 'realistic,' 'middle of the road' view for this roster would be finishing better than the bottom 3 but still in the bottom 7 or 8.  I expect that the pick will be between 5 and 9.

Barring some really fantastic lottery luck (i.e. moving into the top 3), I expect that our only chance at getting a true franchise super-duper-star in this draft would be either packaging Rondo, our pick, and other assets to move up a few spots, or lucking out and picking a guy outside the top 5 who ends up being one of the best 3 or 4 prospects in the draft.


For clarity's sake, I think if everything goes wrong for this team, they could have the worst record in the league. If everything goes right, I think they'd be close to making the playoffs but still solidly behind teams like the Bucks and Pistons.

On paper, I would put the Pistons as the sixth best team in the East, so, barring surprises, I would see us finishing behind the Pistons.  The Bucks, on the other hand, I think we're better than them.  I have them as a bottom four team in the conference.

It looks to me like they got considerably worse.  Knight and Mayo for Jennings and Ellis in the backcourt is fairly sizable downgrade offensively.  I'm not sure I trust Ilyasova to be a consistent scorer.  Sanders is a nice shot blocker and energy guy, but he's not much of an offensive threat. 

You worry about us scoring points?  The Bucks are going to struggle.  I feel fairly confident in saying they'll be one of the bottom four teams in the East.

In my view, the Bucks will be at least as good defensively as they were this past season, and they should be able to score points more efficiently now that they've ditched Ellis and Jennings, two high volume shooters who never scored enough to justify their usage rates.

If the Celtics were getting a full, completely healthy season out of Rondo, I might feel differently.  But I expect Rondo to miss 20-30 games, so in my view it's not going to be all that close.

We'll see.  I just think they'll struggle to create offense.  For all their flaws as high volume inefficient scorers, Ellis and Jennings could both create opportunites for that team.  Knight and Mayo seem like complementary guys to me, not like guys who will be able to handle being tasked with running the show.

I agree, and there will be games where Mayo and Knight each try to do too much and it hurts them. 

Overall, though, I think they'll be forced to spread the offense around, and they have the personnel to take a lot of high percentage shots -- lots of threes and dunks / put-backs. 

I don't expect them to be a very good offensive team, but I doubt they'll be worse than last year.  They should be even better defensively.

I don't necessarily want to continue to quibble over the Bucks roster or their prospects for this season.  Suffice it to say that you have a higher opinion of the team from MIlwaukee than I do. 

I agree that the range of where we could end up in this year's standings is fairly vast.  The way I see it is that there are five proven teams in the East--Miami, Brooklyn, Chicago, Indiana, and New York.  I think almost everyone would agree that those are the frontrunners.   I also think that most would agree that the Pistons look like they should slot into the sixth spot (at least, on paper). 

I also think that the bottom three teams look fairly set, as well.  I don't see Philly, Charlotte, or Orlando doing much other than racing to the bottom of the standings.

That leaves six teams in the middle of the pack--Boston, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Atlanta.  From my vantage point, the worst of those rosters are Atlanta and Milwaukee (I am still tempted to lump the Bucks in with that bottom group, but for the sake of humoring you, I'll give them a chance). 

So, I guess, in the end, I think that if things break well for us and break worse for a couple of those other guys (the Hawks look like they'll be missing Lou Williams to start the season, the Wizards will be without Okafor, and it almost goes without saying that the Cavs will probably be without Bynum for a significant portion of the season), we could end up being that seventh or eighth team to make the playoffs in the East. 

It seems to me that your opinion that our ceiling is 9th or 10th place represents at least as much wishful thinking as me thinking that we could snag one of the final playoff spots. 

I mean, really, surely we can potentially beat out three of the Cavs, the Wiz, the Raptors, the Bucks, and the Hawks. 

If you were a Bucks or a Hawks fan, you'd probably be saying their ceiling was somewhere around 9th or 10th, as well. 

Anyway, here's my updated 2014 Eastern Conference standings predictions:

1.  Miami
2.  Brooklyn
3.  Chicago
4.  Indiana
5.  New York
6.  Detroit
7.  Boston
8.  Washington
9.  Cleveland
10.  Toronto
11.  Atlanta
12.  Milwaukee
13.  Charlotte
14.  Philadelphia
15.  Orlando

[Tr1boy]

I like ur prediction celtics18.
I expect a big year from green. Bradley will play with fire qnd comeback to 2012 form, the brooklyn boys hump, wallace, brooks plus lee, bass will solidify the bench. Lastly a natural progress out of sully and rookie of the year play from olynyk. I didnt even mention rondo.

[csfansince60s]

Been following the thread for over a week and finally voted.

Having a top 5 pick in this draft will be huge to either use in a trade combined with other assets for a star or for our own use.

All finishing as the 7th or 8th seed in the platoffs will do is stunt our rebuild.

I'm with the guys who say rest Rondo for as long as possible, give the young guys tons of playing time and at the deadline make trades for picks to teams who wanna dump salary and/or are contenders who need a piece to make a run (Hump, Bass, Crash, Bogans, whoever).

[mmmmm]

Been following the thread for over a week and finally voted.

Having a top 5 pick in this draft will be huge to either use in a trade combined with other assets for a star or for our own use.

All finishing as the 7th or 8th seed in the platoffs will do is stunt our rebuild.

I'm with the guys who say rest Rondo for as long as possible, give the young guys tons of playing time and at the deadline make trades for picks to teams who wanna dump salary and/or are contenders who need a piece to make a run (Hump, Bass, Crash, Bogans, whoever).

Well, if you want us to have a "top 5 pick", then you want us to finish with either the worst or the 2nd worst record.  Because only the worst two records are guaranteed to pick in the top 5.

What do you think our chance of finishing with one of the 2 worst records is?