2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Lucky17]

Is that true?

Big Al will play Howard evenly on the scoreboard.  History has proven this.

Deng can outscore Budinger by 7 to 10 per night.  Link

Smith can outscore Gibson by 5 to 6 per night, by your own admission.

Gordon can outscore Shumpert by 5 to 7 per night.

Dallas' bench will play your bench, at the very least, evenly.

So, that means that Rose has to outscore Nash by between 17 and 23 point per night for you to win, on the conservative side.

I just don't see that happening, especially with Deng, Gordon and Smith helping on defense.

Judging from the minutes played in H2H, that scoring gap between Deng and Budinger is less than 7 to 10 points a night.

Eric Gordon: the forgotten man in this series. Is he going to get any touches if Dallas is really going to lean heavily on Deng, Smith, and Al Jefferson?

Who's scoring on the Dallas bench? I've got Ben Gordon and Marco Belinelli, who are more consistent, experienced, and better shooters/scorers than Knight or Gary Neal. Unless Tyler Hansbrough is going to magically develop an offensive game? Even Haslem can knock down a jump shot outside of the key.

That gap between Rose and Nash is a lot smaller than 17 to 23 a night.

[Lucky17]

I still don't understand how Dallas' half-court offense even works if Steve Nash is being hounded by Derrick Rose or Iman Shumpert.

Still waiting for a reply on this.

Throughout his HOF career, Steve Nash has been at an athletic disadvantage in just about every game he's played.  His team's offenses haven't wilted under the pressure yet.

Also, Dallas has very good passers throughout its lineup.  Nash, Gordon, Deng, and Smith are all excellent passers.

Gordon and Smith are prone to turnovers. Especially when they'll be facing plus-defenders like Shumpert and Gibson.

[fitzhickey]

Is that true?

Big Al will play Howard evenly on the scoreboard.  History has proven this.

Deng can outscore Budinger by 7 to 10 per night.  Link

Smith can outscore Gibson by 5 to 6 per night, by your own admission.

Gordon can outscore Shumpert by 5 to 7 per night.

Dallas' bench will play your bench, at the very least, evenly.

So, that means that Rose has to outscore Nash by between 17 and 23 point per night for you to win, on the conservative side.

I just don't see that happening, especially with Deng, Gordon and Smith helping on defense.

Judging from the minutes played in H2H, that scoring gap between Deng and Budinger is less than 7 to 10 points a night.

Eric Gordon: the forgotten man in this series. Is he going to get any touches if Dallas is really going to lean heavily on Deng, Smith, and Al Jefferson?

Who's scoring on the Dallas bench? I've got Ben Gordon and Marco Belinelli, who are more consistent, experienced, and better shooters/scorers than Knight or Gary Neal. Unless Tyler Hansbrough is going to magically develop an offensive game? Even Haslem can knock down a jump shot outside of the key.

That gap between Rose and Nash is a lot smaller than 17 to 23 a night.

Eric Gordon can spot up and hit threes from the corner. I think the passing on my team will get him his fair share of shots.

Neal, Knight and Kaman can score adequately, and on pace with Bellinelli/Gordon. Hansbrough is fairly even with Haslem.

[fitzhickey]

I still don't understand how Dallas' half-court offense even works if Steve Nash is being hounded by Derrick Rose or Iman Shumpert.

Still waiting for a reply on this.

Throughout his HOF career, Steve Nash has been at an athletic disadvantage in just about every game he's played.  His team's offenses haven't wilted under the pressure yet.

Also, Dallas has very good passers throughout its lineup.  Nash, Gordon, Deng, and Smith are all excellent passers.

Gordon and Smith are prone to turnovers. Especially when they'll be facing plus-defenders like Shumpert and Gibson.

they both average 2.5 or under TO's per game

[Lucky17]

I still don't understand how Dallas' half-court offense even works if Steve Nash is being hounded by Derrick Rose or Iman Shumpert.

Still waiting for a reply on this.

Throughout his HOF career, Steve Nash has been at an athletic disadvantage in just about every game he's played.  His team's offenses haven't wilted under the pressure yet.

Also, Dallas has very good passers throughout its lineup.  Nash, Gordon, Deng, and Smith are all excellent passers.

Gordon and Smith are prone to turnovers. Especially when they'll be facing plus-defenders like Shumpert and Gibson.

they both average 2.5 or under TO's per game

Smith last year was right at 3 TO a game. 12% of his possessions ended in a TO.

In his last full season, Gordon was at 2.5 TO a game, also at a TOR of 12%.

I'm surprised to see that Steve Nash's numbers before coming to LA were at close to 4 TO a game, with a TOR of around 22%. Perhaps that high TOR was because Nash took comparatively fewer shots and FTs.

[all stats from hoopdata]

[Lucky17]

Question: What's Chris Kaman's resume like against Dwight Howard?

Edit: Link, FWIW:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=kamanch01&p2=howardw01

[Lucky17]

Because his two mvp calibre players are matched up against people who can't stop them...

Accept that Big Al *has* stopped -- or at least severely limited -- D12 their entire careers.  Big Al holds Howard below his averages, he outscores him, and he wins more games.

It sucks for fitz that so many smart posters are just buying into reputation, without doing any analysis.  From the outside looking in, it seems like so many others (although not you, KC, since you're probably the most GM in the game) get upset when voters don't look past the general consensus on a player, and yet they're doing the same in this matchup.

I say, look past reputation, and look at numbers.  Howard has always struggled with big guys in the post (see Kendrick Perkins), and Big Al has the muscle to put a body on him.  The track record here tells the story.  Big Al has neutralized Howard.

I'm glad I looked further into this claim.

Only in the points column are Howard and Al close, in head to head matchups. Dwight has more rebounds (12.4 vs. 8.5), more blocks, more steals, more assists, better/more efficient shooting, and fewer fouls per game.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=jeffeal01&p2=howardw01

When factoring in team defense into the equation, the Dwight-Al matchup is still an edge to OKC.

[indeedproceed]

It sucks for fitz that so many smart posters are just buying into reputation, without doing any analysis.  From the outside looking in, it seems like so many others (although not you, KC, since you're probably the most GM in the game) get upset when voters don't look past the general consensus on a player, and yet they're doing the same in this matchup.

I say, look past reputation, and look at numbers.  Howard has always struggled with big guys in the post (see Kendrick Perkins), and Big Al has the muscle to put a body on him.  The track record here tells the story.  Big Al has neutralized Howard.

This is a kind of weird elongated slashing weapon that has been sharpened on bot sides in a very unorthodox manner. Past reputation and numbers = Howard is the best single player a team defense can hope to have. And that goes pretty far and away beyond 18 games with Al Jefferson.

There's a reason why when the Rockets and Lakers before him acquired Dwight Howard they immediately sprang into the contender discussion, while when Charlotte acquired Al Jefferson at a fraction of the cost everyone agreed; bad move.

[Roy H.]

It sucks for fitz that so many smart posters are just buying into reputation, without doing any analysis.  From the outside looking in, it seems like so many others (although not you, KC, since you're probably the most GM in the game) get upset when voters don't look past the general consensus on a player, and yet they're doing the same in this matchup.

I say, look past reputation, and look at numbers.  Howard has always struggled with big guys in the post (see Kendrick Perkins), and Big Al has the muscle to put a body on him.  The track record here tells the story.  Big Al has neutralized Howard.

This is a kind of weird elongated slashing weapon that has been sharpened on bot sides in a very unorthodox manner. Past reputation and numbers = Howard is the best single player a team defense can hope to have. And that goes pretty far and away beyond 18 games with Al Jefferson.

There's a reason why when the Rockets and Lakers before him acquired Dwight Howard they immediately sprang into the contender discussion, while when Charlotte acquired Al Jefferson at a fraction of the cost everyone agreed; bad move.

I'm going to assume that you understand that a player can defend an individual opponent well, even though objectively the latter player is better?  Like, for instance, Kyrie Irving could be objectively better than Jrue Holiday, but Holiday could limit Irving?  (Assuming, of course, there was a years-long track record of such limitation.)

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

[Lucky17]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

[Roy H.]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

[indeedproceed]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

What? I'm arguing that. Well I am, but not like you say.

I'm saying LA was elevated to the status of 'contender' by fans and the press alike, and Houston now is too.

[Roy H.]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

What? I'm arguing that. Well I am, but not like you say.

I'm saying LA was elevated to the status of 'contender' by fans and the press alike, and Houston now is too.

Okay...  so Howard elevated the team on paper, but in reality, he wasn't as good as the fans and the media thought.

That sounds remarkably like the present matchup, where the conventional wisdom is that Howard would walk all over Big Al, when the reality of the situation to date is the opposite.

[McHales Pits]

I think Dallas could make this interesting, but I worry about them not having the proper perimeter and rim defense to keep Rose from slashing and scoring at will.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

Is Jefferson better defensively than McGee? Offensively it's night and day. But on the other end, I'd say no.