2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Fafnir]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

step forward Eric Gordon

and to KC's point how is my huge advantage at 2, 3 and 4 not a difference at all?

So Gordon is going to be your primary defender on Rose?

[fitzhickey]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

Getting creative, can deng or Jsmoothe defend rose?

probably Deng
as seeming Budinger is abysmal on offense I wouldn't be too fussed

[KGs Knee]

Yeah Big Al/Dwight Howard isn't a neutral match up at all.

It is head to head.  It's certainly not some huge advantage for OKC.  Maybe there's a theoretical advantage, but not in reality.

Well, this isn't reality, it's fiction.  We aren't exactly lining up the rosters we've built and actually playing games.

As far as I'm concerned, the type of stats gleaned from  such limited sample sizes of head to head matchups has limited meaning on this context.  Totally different surrounding players and systems of offense and defense.

Just about everything we're dealing with here is subjective and open to interpretation.

[fitzhickey]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

step forward Eric Gordon

and to KC's point how is my huge advantage at 2, 3 and 4 not a difference at all?

So Gordon is going to be your primary defender on Rose?

he will be my primary defender of him, but it will be a collective effort from Deng and Smith also as Budinger and Gibson aren't dangerous in the least

[KCattheStripe]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

step forward Eric Gordon

and to KC's point how is my huge advantage at 2, 3 and 4 not a difference at all?

Because his two mvp calibre players are matched up against people who can't stop them and your 3 borderline all stars are matched up against 2 very good defensive players and one lousy one. Doesn't make a diffence to me if Deng is capable abusing Budddinger if Rose and Howard can abuse their match ups.

[pearljammer10]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

Getting creative, can deng or Jsmoothe defend rose?

I would actually give Deng a whirl on Rose. I think he could contain him at times.

[Roy H.]

Because his two mvp calibre players are matched up against people who can't stop them...

Accept that Big Al *has* stopped -- or at least severely limited -- D12 their entire careers.  Big Al holds Howard below his averages, he outscores him, and he wins more games.

It sucks for fitz that so many smart posters are just buying into reputation, without doing any analysis.  From the outside looking in, it seems like so many others (although not you, KC, since you're probably the most GM in the game) get upset when voters don't look past the general consensus on a player, and yet they're doing the same in this matchup.

I say, look past reputation, and look at numbers.  Howard has always struggled with big guys in the post (see Kendrick Perkins), and Big Al has the muscle to put a body on him.  The track record here tells the story.  Big Al has neutralized Howard.

[fitzhickey]

Derrick Rose eats Steve Nash and that's the difference.

Yeah no way Nash can cover Rose, they'll have to put a different player on him.

step forward Eric Gordon

and to KC's point how is my huge advantage at 2, 3 and 4 not a difference at all?

Because his two mvp calibre players are matched up against people who can't stop them and your 3 borderline all stars are matched up against 2 very good defensive players and one lousy one. Doesn't make a diffence to me if Deng is capable abusing Budddinger if Rose and Howard can abuse their match ups.

Big Al vs D12 isn't a loss on my part!
look at the numbers people. the numbers don't lie
and the other huge "disadvantage" is Rose vs Nash.
funny how it seems people ignore the fact that I have previously said that either Gordon or Deng will be on him
I think some people are getting carried away with the supposed disadvantages

[Roy H.]

This is going to be a tough one. I think OKC has an edge with Rose and Howard over Nash and Big Al (even if Roy's stats say otherwise).

And aren't those stats important to consider?

I focused on the last five games so that folks couldn't say I cherry-picked, or was relying on games from many years ago that don't matter.  However, for their careers, Big Al has held D12 to 15.9 points, so it isn't a fluke.

Big Al vs. Howard is neutral.

If you ignore their defense (and rebounding).

Big Al is a major liability on team defense and Dwight Howard is one of the best help + interior defenders in the league ... if not the very best once again next season.

Big Al can score with D-Howard -- heck Big Al is better offensively with his abundance of post moves and superior jump-shooting -- but he cannot match what Dwight Howard gives his team on the other end of the floor (or on the boards).

But isn't most of the defense head-to-head? 

I would say (guess!) as a general guideline, in the league today (different from other eras), that defensive responsibility for a center (as opposed to other positions) is about 70% team defense and only 30% man-to-man defensive sequences.

The difference between center and other positions being the role of defensive anchor (basket protector) and also the lower number of offensive talent at the center position relative to other positions.

If you look or think about the number of plays someone like Kevin Garnett is asked to make as a defensive anchor for Boston showing on help defense coverages vs the number of times he is asked to do something one-on-one defensively with his own check ... the number of help defense sequences far outweighs the number of one-on-one sequences. 70-30 or something like that is just a guess at the difference.

----------------------------------------

Although, that is not quite true in this specific matchup.

One of the reasons for such a large difference in team defense + man defense situations is the low number of centers who are high level offensive threats. In this case, Big Al and D-Howard, they are both 20ppg threats. Two of the best scoring centers in the league. So man-to-man defensive responsibilities a lot higher and closer to 50-50 team D vs man D.

Yeah, your last paragraph gets at what I'm saying.

As far as team defense in general, Howard is of course better.  However -- surprisingly -- Big Al has become very good on the pick-and-roll, ranking in the top 15% in the NBA covering the roll man.  Next to Josh Smith, he should be even better.

[Roy H.]

Which team has the better offense?

I think that Dallas does.  Nash offenses tend to be very efficient, and outside of Josh Smith, Dallas has a lot of efficient players.  Nash, Gordon, and Deng are all plus-shooters, and Big Al is a huge threat in the post.  Nash, Gordon, Deng, and Smith are all excellent passers.  If Nash can keep Smith in check -- and I think that he can -- this will be a beautiful offense to watch.

OKC, meanwhile, has several below-average offensive players in Gibson, Budinger, and Shumpert.

Which team has the better defense?

For this particular series, I think that Dallas does.  Smith and Deng are elite defenders; Gordon is a very good one.  Big Al under normal circumstances would be considered below average, but in terms of his matchup with D12, he plays him evenly.  Nash of course is a below-average defender, but probably no worse than Budinger.

Which team is better at rebounding?

Pretty clearly, this is Dallas, right?  Big Al and Howard are generally even, but Smith + Deng is going to add more rebounding than Gibson + Budinger.

Dallas has a very good offense, a very good defense, and very good rebounding.

OKC has a limited offense, a good defense, and good rebounding.

Advantage, Dallas.

[fitzhickey]

Which team has the better offense?

I think that Dallas does.  Nash offenses tend to be very efficient, and outside of Josh Smith, Dallas has a lot of efficient players.  Nash, Gordon, and Deng are all plus-shooters, and Big Al is a huge threat in the post.  Nash, Gordon, Deng, and Smith are all excellent passers.  If Nash can keep Smith in check -- and I think that he can -- this will be a beautiful offense to watch.

OKC, meanwhile, has several below-average offensive players in Gibson, Budinger, and Shumpert.

Which team has the better defense?

For this particular series, I think that Dallas does.  Smith and Deng are elite defenders; Gordon is a very good one.  Big Al under normal circumstances would be considered below average, but in terms of his matchup with D12, he plays him evenly.  Nash of course is a below-average defender, but probably no worse than Budinger.

Which team is better at rebounding?

Pretty clearly, this is Dallas, right?  Big Al and Howard are generally even, but Smith + Deng is going to add more rebounding than Gibson + Budinger.

Dallas has a very good offense, a very good defense, and very good rebounding.

OKC has a limited offense, a good defense, and good rebounding.

Advantage, Dallas.

quoted for truth
I mean no disrespect to Lucky17 but I do think this side is a bit overrated due to the star power

[KCattheStripe]

Surprised by the Howard/ Big Al head to heads, but the biggest part of the DRose Nash match up wasn't that Nash had to guard DRose but that DRose got to guard Nash.

[Who]

In terms of rebounding,

PG: Rose > Nash
SG: Shumpert > Gordon
SF: Budinger < Deng
PF: T.Gibson = J.Smith
 C: Dwight > Big Al

In terms of the starting lineup, I think OKC has a pretty significant advantage on the boards.

[fitzhickey]

Surprised by the Howard/ Big Al head to heads, but the biggest part of the DRose Nash match up wasn't that Nash had to guard DRose but that DRose got to guard Nash.

yes, Nash vs Rose on the other end of the court when Nash is bringing up the ball could be some trouble. could.
my team has many offensive weapons. Gordon and Deng from 3 are both very capable, Big Al either in the post or hitting mid range jumpshots, both of which he is very solid at doing. my team doesn't rely on one guy. and Nash, Gordon, Deng and Smith are all very good passers. my team doesn't rely upon one player to do everything. it is just a great team in every way

[Roy H.]

I like Taj Gibson (he was an original CrotoNat), but man, I think he's become overrated.

This is a guy who averaged 6.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in the playoffs.  He's not starting quality to me.

Budinger isn't a starter, either, and he's never played in a playoff series.  That's without even getting into the injury issues that restricted him to 23 games last year.