Jeff Green Concerns

[gar]

I hate how everything gets blown out of proportion. Jeff Green is not now, nor has he ever been 'mediocre'.

He ranked 94th in the NBA in scoring last year, which I'd say is pretty mediocre.  His PER ranked 158th.  He ranked 100th in points per minute (in his career best year), and his career points per minute would have ranked him 143rd in the NBA last year.

Historically, the guy has been mediocre.  He played very well during the second half of the season, and that's reason for optimism.  However, evaluating his career as a whole up until now, "mediocre" is definitely fair.

So does this evaluation square with the contract he got and the trust of the Celtics organization. He has huge shoes to fill and I think the expectations being placed on him are a little unrealistic; however at Georgetown he did show more grace and athelticism. He has developed a good all around game; but has neither the personality or skill level to be the man. Rondo will have to carry that role until they bring in someone else. He is a solid part of a transitional core; but the C's aren't winning the next title riding on his coattails alone.

[Galeto]

I dunno if y'all have checked out the thread in my siggy but does anyone here think it's unreasonable for Green to have a statline of:

24 points
6 rebounds
2 assists
1 block

because that's what I've been saying for a while now. Of course we could be optimistic and say 25/7/4/1.5 or something but he isn't exactly the best passer out there. I think it's within the realm of possibility that he scores 25 a game because that's simply something he can do. 1 block a game is reasonable. 6 rebounds a game is a stretch but he could reasonably get 5.

I continue to believe that he can be a top 5 SF in the league in two years, but there's nothing wrong with being a year early. He can be a top 5 SF next year as well; he's got all he needs and this might be his chance as he enters his prime.

I think the PPG total is a little high (by maybe 5 points).  I say that because Green is our #1 option now, a position he's never had before.  I think he'll struggle with it at the beginning of the season, but by the ASB, he'll have adjusted.

I'd also give him a steal a game to go with the block, and I'd say he does it all in 36 MPG.

In short, a borderline All Star.

Agreed, but I don't see why he can't go for 24. Look what happened to James Harden after he got off the bench and became a first option; it's possible Jeff goes through the same process too.

I think he's a borderline All-Star and that he's just as good as Paul George and Paul Pierce (if not better) and better than Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons, Nic Batum, Demar Derozan, Andrei Kirilenko, Rudy Gay, etc.

Basically he's two tiers below LeBron and Durant and a tier below Carmelo (and maybe PG).

[dang], you make scoring sound so easy.  I guess anyone could average 24 a game if they just had the opportunities!

Harden has every skill in the book.  Green doesn't.  That's a huge difference.  When Harden came off the bench, he still played 31 minutes a game and had the ball in his hands like a lead player.  He also got to the free throw line at a ridiculous rate per shot, which is a hallmark of prolific scorers who average over 24 a game.  Green hasn't shown that kind of ability.

Green's a nice player but his overall skillset from his handle and passing ability gives him the ceiling of a nice player. 

[Boris Badenov]

I dunno if y'all have checked out the thread in my siggy but does anyone here think it's unreasonable for Green to have a statline of:

24 points
6 rebounds
2 assists
1 block

because that's what I've been saying for a while now. Of course we could be optimistic and say 25/7/4/1.5 or something but he isn't exactly the best passer out there. I think it's within the realm of possibility that he scores 25 a game because that's simply something he can do. 1 block a game is reasonable. 6 rebounds a game is a stretch but he could reasonably get 5.

I continue to believe that he can be a top 5 SF in the league in two years, but there's nothing wrong with being a year early. He can be a top 5 SF next year as well; he's got all he needs and this might be his chance as he enters his prime.

I think the PPG total is a little high (by maybe 5 points).  I say that because Green is our #1 option now, a position he's never had before.  I think he'll struggle with it at the beginning of the season, but by the ASB, he'll have adjusted.

I'd also give him a steal a game to go with the block, and I'd say he does it all in 36 MPG.

In short, a borderline All Star.

Agreed, but I don't see why he can't go for 24. Look what happened to James Harden after he got off the bench and became a first option; it's possible Jeff goes through the same process too.

Harden even in OKC averaged 19.3 points per 36 in his last year, playing with two teammates in the top 10 by usage rate. Green has never averaged more than 16.6, even with much less shot-happy teammates. Harden is and always has been a superior and more well-rounded scorer. He was also younger when he made that transition than Green is now, and more clearly on the career upswing.

Even if you look at Green's minutes and role in the offense during his "breakout" as a starter last year, with a normal reversion in shooting percentages from his aberrantly high 52% overall and 52% from 3 during that stretch, he would be in the 18-19ppg range playing 35-36 minutes per game.

If you expect him to turn into a Carmelo/Harden type of scorer that is your prerogative.

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

If not, you're not only expecting him to be a top 5 elite scorer on the level of Lebron, Wade, Harden, Carmelo etc. - you're expecting him to develop into such a player in a way that no other player in league history has.

[European NBA fan]

I dunno if y'all have checked out the thread in my siggy but does anyone here think it's unreasonable for Green to have a statline of:

24 points
6 rebounds
2 assists
1 block

because that's what I've been saying for a while now. Of course we could be optimistic and say 25/7/4/1.5 or something but he isn't exactly the best passer out there. I think it's within the realm of possibility that he scores 25 a game because that's simply something he can do. 1 block a game is reasonable. 6 rebounds a game is a stretch but he could reasonably get 5.

I continue to believe that he can be a top 5 SF in the league in two years, but there's nothing wrong with being a year early. He can be a top 5 SF next year as well; he's got all he needs and this might be his chance as he enters his prime.

I think the PPG total is a little high (by maybe 5 points).  I say that because Green is our #1 option now, a position he's never had before.  I think he'll struggle with it at the beginning of the season, but by the ASB, he'll have adjusted.

I'd also give him a steal a game to go with the block, and I'd say he does it all in 36 MPG.

In short, a borderline All Star.

Agreed, but I don't see why he can't go for 24. Look what happened to James Harden after he got off the bench and became a first option; it's possible Jeff goes through the same process too.

Harden even in OKC averaged 19.3 points per 36 in his last year, playing with two teammates in the top 10 by usage rate. Green has never averaged more than 16.6, even with much less shot-happy teammates. Harden is and always has been a superior and more well-rounded scorer. He was also younger when he made that transition than Green is now, and more clearly on the career upswing.

Even if you look at Green's minutes and role in the offense during his "breakout" as a starter last year, with a normal reversion in shooting percentages from his aberrantly high 52% overall and 52% from 3 during that stretch, he would be in the 18-19ppg range playing 35-36 minutes per game.

If you expect him to turn into a Carmelo/Harden type of scorer that is your prerogative.

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

If not, you're not only expecting him to be a top 5 elite scorer on the level of Lebron, Wade, Harden, Carmelo etc. - you're expecting him to develop into such a player in a way that no other player in league history has.

Alex English actually went from 17 pts/36 minutes at the age of 25 to 28 pts/36 minutes when he was 29. But that seems like an extremely rare case.

I would be  very happy if Jeff Green can move up to 20 pts/36 minutes and stay there in his prime years.

[CelticConcourse]

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

If not, you're not only expecting him to be a top 5 elite scorer on the level of Lebron, Wade, Harden, Carmelo etc. - you're expecting him to develop into such a player in a way that no other player in league history has.

I think I addressed your other arguments in my other thread, but sure. There have indeed been players who have experienced jumps in scoring after being placed in a more ideal situation.

Code: [Select]

Age PPG  per36
23  05.2 17.2
24  09.6 18.3
25  16.0 17.3
26  14.9 19.0
-----jump-----
26  21.3 21.1
27  23.8 22.5
28  25.4 24.9
29  28.4 28.0
30  26.4 27.2
31  27.9 27.8
32  29.8 28.7
33  28.6 27.4
34  25.0 25.6
35  26.5 26.2
36  17.9 13.3
37  09.7 15.7

This is Alex English, and his jump was his trade to Denver.
We have Jeff Green, and his jump will be his transition to option 1.

edit: looks like European NBA fan got in before me

[Boris Badenov]

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

If not, you're not only expecting him to be a top 5 elite scorer on the level of Lebron, Wade, Harden, Carmelo etc. - you're expecting him to develop into such a player in a way that no other player in league history has.

I think I addressed your other arguments in my other thread, but sure. There have indeed been players who have experienced jumps in scoring after being placed in a more ideal situation.

Code: [Select]

Age PPG  per36
23  05.2 17.2
24  09.6 18.3
25  16.0 17.3
26  14.9 19.0
-----jump-----
26  21.3 21.1
27  23.8 22.5
28  25.4 24.9
29  28.4 28.0
30  26.4 27.2
31  27.9 27.8
32  29.8 28.7
33  28.6 27.4
34  25.0 25.6
35  26.5 26.2
36  17.9 13.3
37  09.7 15.7

This is Alex English, and his jump was his trade to Denver.
We have Jeff Green, and his jump will be his transition to option 1.

edit: looks like European NBA fan got in before me

You said Green would improve his scoring by 8 points in one year, and the best you can do in answering my question is find one guy from 30 years ago who did it over FOUR years?

What you are saying is, barring another answer to my question, "I think Jeff Green will match the best mid-career scoring jump in NBA history - except do it four times faster."

In other words you are expecting him to do something no other player in league history has done.

I dearly hope you're right. But this would be a tail event. You have to see that.

[BballTim]

I dunno if y'all have checked out the thread in my siggy but does anyone here think it's unreasonable for Green to have a statline of:

24 points
6 rebounds
2 assists
1 block

because that's what I've been saying for a while now. Of course we could be optimistic and say 25/7/4/1.5 or something but he isn't exactly the best passer out there. I think it's within the realm of possibility that he scores 25 a game because that's simply something he can do. 1 block a game is reasonable. 6 rebounds a game is a stretch but he could reasonably get 5.

I continue to believe that he can be a top 5 SF in the league in two years, but there's nothing wrong with being a year early. He can be a top 5 SF next year as well; he's got all he needs and this might be his chance as he enters his prime.

I think the PPG total is a little high (by maybe 5 points).  I say that because Green is our #1 option now, a position he's never had before.  I think he'll struggle with it at the beginning of the season, but by the ASB, he'll have adjusted.

I'd also give him a steal a game to go with the block, and I'd say he does it all in 36 MPG.

In short, a borderline All Star.

Agreed, but I don't see why he can't go for 24. Look what happened to James Harden after he got off the bench and became a first option; it's possible Jeff goes through the same process too.

Harden even in OKC averaged 19.3 points per 36 in his last year, playing with two teammates in the top 10 by usage rate. Green has never averaged more than 16.6, even with much less shot-happy teammates. Harden is and always has been a superior and more well-rounded scorer. He was also younger when he made that transition than Green is now, and more clearly on the career upswing.

Even if you look at Green's minutes and role in the offense during his "breakout" as a starter last year, with a normal reversion in shooting percentages from his aberrantly high 52% overall and 52% from 3 during that stretch, he would be in the 18-19ppg range playing 35-36 minutes per game.

If you expect him to turn into a Carmelo/Harden type of scorer that is your prerogative.

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

 Dale Ellis is pretty close to what you're looking for.

[Boris Badenov]

I dunno if y'all have checked out the thread in my siggy but does anyone here think it's unreasonable for Green to have a statline of:

24 points
6 rebounds
2 assists
1 block

because that's what I've been saying for a while now. Of course we could be optimistic and say 25/7/4/1.5 or something but he isn't exactly the best passer out there. I think it's within the realm of possibility that he scores 25 a game because that's simply something he can do. 1 block a game is reasonable. 6 rebounds a game is a stretch but he could reasonably get 5.

I continue to believe that he can be a top 5 SF in the league in two years, but there's nothing wrong with being a year early. He can be a top 5 SF next year as well; he's got all he needs and this might be his chance as he enters his prime.

I think the PPG total is a little high (by maybe 5 points).  I say that because Green is our #1 option now, a position he's never had before.  I think he'll struggle with it at the beginning of the season, but by the ASB, he'll have adjusted.

I'd also give him a steal a game to go with the block, and I'd say he does it all in 36 MPG.

In short, a borderline All Star.

Agreed, but I don't see why he can't go for 24. Look what happened to James Harden after he got off the bench and became a first option; it's possible Jeff goes through the same process too.

Harden even in OKC averaged 19.3 points per 36 in his last year, playing with two teammates in the top 10 by usage rate. Green has never averaged more than 16.6, even with much less shot-happy teammates. Harden is and always has been a superior and more well-rounded scorer. He was also younger when he made that transition than Green is now, and more clearly on the career upswing.

Even if you look at Green's minutes and role in the offense during his "breakout" as a starter last year, with a normal reversion in shooting percentages from his aberrantly high 52% overall and 52% from 3 during that stretch, he would be in the 18-19ppg range playing 35-36 minutes per game.

If you expect him to turn into a Carmelo/Harden type of scorer that is your prerogative.

But I can recall no player in NBA history increasing his per-36 scoring from 16 to 24 at such a relatively late stage of his career. Can you?

 Dale Ellis is pretty close to what you're looking for.

TP for the find.

But even so...that 85/86 season was a down year for Ellis relative to his first two, it was still his third year, and he had never been a starter or played more than 20mpg prior to his breakout season. None of those things apply in Green's case. Green is just so much more of a known quantity, and his change in role will be nowhere as dramatic.

And of course, even finding one example of such a player is far from a useful counter-argument. It merely pushes the phenomenon from "unheard of in NBA history" to "incredibly rare in NBA history."