Why is everyone so down on Fab Melo?

[ScoobyDoo]

Some good points there Nick and fair enough.

I'm certainly not "sold" on the guy. To be honest I wanted Ezeli, he seemed like a bigger Ben Wallace type to me, and I really liked his physicality in the paint.

I think Fab is a long shot - but I'd still take a long, hard look at him this year and see what Stevens can get done with him. Stevens is an apparent whiz kid coach...

I'd be for moving Fab in a package of other players and draft picks perhaps, if it meant we were getting what we considered a long term answer at center.

Otherwise, for right now, as painful as it might be, I'd push him to the point of breaking this year for 82 games - see what's real, whether he develops noticeably or caves under the weight of the expectations.

I think by the end of the season with a program like that, we'll know exactly what to do with him as a player - good or bad...   

[ScoobyDoo]

As a bonus we might get a high lottery pick, which I'd be fine with for a season if it meant it was because our young guys were getting it handed to them for 82 games in an accelerated development scenario, feet to the fire season.

Either step up, take your beatings every night on the court and come through it a better player much sooner than you might otherwise, or if you can't handle it, get out.

[nickagneta]

If Melo gets playing time for 82 games it is because he earned it and not because that is how he will be developed. He will be developed in practice, in the film room, in the weight room and in the D-League. Playing time in the NBA is a reward for excellent practice, development and the absorption of coaching before games. It is not for development of talent. That's what D-League playing time is for.

So with 15 players and only 12 allowed active, do not be surprised to see Melo spending another year in the D-League, rather than getting playing time with the big club.

[Boris Badenov]

I think if he were playing 23 minutes a game, he'd be putting up numbers somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 points 5-6 boards and 2-3 blocks - this year.

Here is a complete list of players who averaged 12 points, 5 boards and 2 blocks or better last year, in less than 30 minutes per game:

HAHA! Well-compilated, sir.

I just think Fab lacks the basketball intelligence, coordination, and footwork that it takes to be a productive big-man in the NBA. Fortunately for him - he is 7 ft tall - and some other GM will give him a shot if we don't.

His D-League triple-double gives me a slight glimmer of hope, but its not much.

If he played 20 mins per game, I would expect 4PPG/4RPG/1BPG/4FLs ... in essence - below-average production.

I must say, even as I went to look it up I didn't expect the list to be *quite* so short.

Even if you remove the "<30mpg" filter, only 4 players averaged 12/5/2 last year or better:

Serge Ibaka
Tim Duncan
Dwight Howard
Brook Lopez

These are also the only guys to average these seemingly modest numbers on a per-36 basis.

You might think the blocks filter is quite restrictive, but if you ask how many players averaged 12/5/1 per-36 or better, here is the entire list:

Kevin Durant
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka
Chris Bosh
Brook Lopez
Al Horford
Tim Duncan
Al Jefferson
Dwight Howard
Paul Millsap
LaMarcus Aldridge
Anthony Davis
Nicolas Batum
Nikola Vucevic
Josh Smith
Pau Gasol

http://bkref.com/tiny/06cc7

[ScoobyDoo]

Then let's hope he develops well in those spaces over the course of this year. If he sees any significant time on the floor in the NBA I suppose we'll have our answer...

That's is an amazing stat list on the 12/5 & 1 guys. Even more surprising is the Howard, Lopez, Duncan & Ibaka list...

Interesting.

Good, so I've set a galactic level bar for Fab - that should work out well -     

[mmmmm]

I think if he were playing 23 minutes a game, he'd be putting up numbers somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 points 5-6 boards and 2-3 blocks - this year.

Here is a complete list of players who averaged 12 points, 5 boards and 2 blocks or better last year, in less than 30 minutes per game:

Well played, sir ...

Hibbert came close:  11.9 pts, 8.3 rebounds, 2.6 blocks in 28.7 mpg.

[sofutomygaha]

I think if he were playing 23 minutes a game, he'd be putting up numbers somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 points 5-6 boards and 2-3 blocks - this year.

Mr. Doo

If Fab Melo averages half a point per minute in the NBA, I will eat my hat.  In fact, I will hold out my hat to you, let you put absolutely whatever you want into my hat, and then I will eat the hat together with whatever you put in there, all while humming an ode that I will write especially for the occasion, heralding your wisdom and virtue.

[ScoobyDoo]

Ha ha!!! TP sofutomygaha

I think you have little to worry about. After Boris pointed out his list, I realized 12 points a game in 23 minutes for Fab would translate to a guy who could theoretically score 24 a night over 48 which would put Fab in the argument for top scorers of all time in the NBA.

We got high hopes for ya kid...

Ok, so how about 6 / 4 and 1.5 in 23 minutes a night this year?

[Yogi]

It is not clear what Fab's ceiling in the NBA is.  It's almost impossible to predict any meaningful numbers. 

What is certain is that he has an NBA body.  He has some NBA skills.  He will get better with playing time and confidence.  I am not sure how much time he will get in the NBA this season, but it will certainly be more than last year. 

[sofutomygaha]

Ha ha!!! TP sofutomygaha

I think you have little to worry about. After Boris pointed out his list, I realized 12 points a game in 23 minutes for Fab would translate to a guy who could theoretically score 24 a night over 48 which would put Fab in the argument for top scorers of all time in the NBA.

We got high hopes for ya kid...

Ok, so how about 6 / 4 and 1.5 in 23 minutes a night this year?

Statistically, that would make him a cross between Festus Ezeli and Boris Diaw. I guess it's not crazy.

[ScoobyDoo]

Sold, I'll take it!

[nickagneta]

He will get better with playing time and confidence.

That is no certainty. It is a hope but there remains a very strong possibility that he is as good as he will ever get with or without more playing time or more confidence.

I hope he gets better and someday gets to be a starting defensive anchor for this team, but, once again, that is just a hope and no certainty.

[cltc5]

he sux. lock thread

[bfrombleacher]

It's not an excuse though.  It is a fact.  I still would rather have Fab than anyone drafted after him.  Only Taylor, Crowder and Green and possibly Jenkins and Lamb even interest me but they all play in overloaded positions for us and Fab has a higher ceiling than those guys. 

Interesting. Most people I've seen are more interested in Perry Jones and Moultrie more than Melo.

Indeed, Jones could end up being a bust like Anthony Randolph has. Not everyone can pull off a great or even half decent NBA career while being rail thin like KG.

Moultrie apparently has motivation problems. The latest on Moultrie has him being out of shape in the 2013 summer league.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1978/arnett-moultrie

Arnett Moultrie averaged 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in the 76ers' final two Summer League games in Orlando, but his poor conditioning raised a red flag during the week.
"[Moultrie] hasn't been in shape since we've had him. We've been trying to work him, but whenever we have time away, his conditioning drops off." ...

Jul 13 - 10:22 AM

Apart from comments from a couple fans with tinted lenses, I don't see any evidence of Fab being out of shape. Him looking out of breath at times could be attributed to his hour long pre-game workouts that Ainge said Melo has been doing all this time.

I was also on the bandwagon for PJIII and Moultrie but I can see where Ainge is coming from. Neither PJIII nor Moultrie have done that much more than Melo. Considering that Melo is supposedly a far less NBA ready player, you can't yet say Ainge has missed on PJIII or Moultrie.




The one guy I'd say we might have missed out on would be Festus Ezeli. Someone who can consistently average almost a block and 4 boards in 14 minutes would have really helped out last year.

But, again, you can see where Ainge is coming from if you take a step back from the rage. Being as objective as possible, I'd say the choice between Melo and Ezeli would have been a tossup knowing what I know now.

[CelticsFan9]

At this point, I just hope Fab becomes Ian Mahinmi (one of the better backup centers in the league, in my opinion).