Why is everyone so down on Fab Melo?

[ScoobyDoo]

1. He was the 22nd pick in a so so draft. How many 22nd picks have a major impact on their teams, if at all, over the course of their careers?

2. Is anyone taken after Fab "lighting" up the league in spectacular fashion? I mean Draymond Green and Ezeli are doing "Ok" for their teams but not making any all star teams anytime soon. (I actually wanted us to take Ezeli...)

3. Fab had a good year in the D-league, set some records and made the all defensive team didn't he? 

4. he had a decent summer league, showed some improvements, if small.

A) still shows very good lateral quickness in the lane on defense for a guy his size.

B) showed a nice little jump hook

C) A couple solid finishes around the rim - a little improvement in that area.

D) his body looks dramatically different to me. The guy is a big, ruggedly built seven footer who can move pretty well up and down the court as well as laterally.

E) Shows decent passing ability 
 

I mean look, he's still raw, doesn't hold his ground very well at all times in the lane, but he's definitely improved in some areas and I would absolutely hold onto him for another year or so and let him keep developing - unless - he's part of a package that brings us our starting center for the next 10 years.

If I were coaching the kid, I'd do two  drills with him every single day, three actually, in succession.

1. I'd have him sprint as fast as possible from foul line to foul line.

followed by

2. When he gets to the lane I'd having Sullinger, Humphries and Iverson if he was with the team, waiting for him and I'd have a guy putting up shots  and I'd have those three guys hammer Fab while going for the boards until he learns how to hold his ground, lay a body on someone and grab the board. Basically put him in a popcorn machine for about 10 minutes every practice.

3. Once the board is secured I'd have him do an eight point lateral shuffle following the ball with his hands up in the passing lanes.

Sprint to the other end, where Iverson, Sullinger and Humphries are waiting for him again.

Repeat.
Repeat.
Repeat.

To me his real weaknesses are that he doesn't keep his hands high when playing D in the lane which makes him much smaller than he is, he doesn't lay his body on guys hard enough and he needs to get in the habit of sprinting harder foul line to foul line, like KG did. Iverson actually does this pretty well already.     

If he showed real improvement in the above three things he could great increase his value.

One other thing - On D, the main thing I would focus him on is understanding how to use his forearms in the lower back and his hips and legs for leverage in the post.

I see his weaknesses. But I also see small improvements and the fact that his body looks quite different indicates he's willing to work.

I'm kind of interested to see what Stevens will do with him - how much he's able to improve the kid over the course of this year.

 

[LooseCannon]

Because they've seen him play?

I happen to think he's a long-term project where the goal should be to have him be 10mpg back-up in his third season, so I'll be satisfied with his progress if he can be somewhere close to halfway between that and what he did last season, but it's not hard to be pessimistic because raw projects tend to not figure things out.

[ScoobyDoo]

Yeah...he has a long way to go but has made some incremental improvements. I'm not sure he can ever be a starter, that seems like a real stretch, but as you say if he could be a 3rd string 7 footer that wouldn't be bad either.   

[Chris]

Feel for the game.  He has none.  And while guys like say, Sammy Dalembert can get by without it to some degree, because of superior athleticism and coordination, I haven't seen that from Melo.  He looks plodding, and uncoordinated. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I've been down on him because he seems to have very little skill outside of shotblocking, and because I think Iverson is already a better player and should've been held onto for this season.

But for some reason Danny seems to think that Fab can eventually turn into a decent player, maybe a Perk lite. Some people say that Fab can at least become (eventually) a decent third-string NBA center, maybe second string, but I think Iverson is already a solid third-stringer, and much more likely to become a solid second-stringer. I wanted Iverson kept and Fab cut loose, but I guess Danny has other ideas.

But hey, if Fab turns into a decent player, great—I'll be happy to admit I was wrong.

[Boris Badenov]

1. He was the 22nd pick in a so so draft. How many 22nd picks have a major impact on their teams, if at all, over the course of their careers?

2. Is anyone taken after Fab "lighting" up the league in spectacular fashion? I mean Draymond Green and Ezeli are doing "Ok" for their teams but not making any all star teams anytime soon. (I actually wanted us to take Ezeli...)

On your first two points:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2012.html

You can see that there were 37 players taken after Fab - 30 not counting the "stash" picks.

Of those 30 players, 25 played more NBA minutes than Fab last year. More qualitatively I would rank at least 15 of those guys as having clearly better seasons than Fab. It's still early but right now he is looking like the 40th-50th best plater taken in the draft - maybe worse if some of those Euros pan out.

As far as what should be our expectations, you're right that relatively few players taken at 22 pan out:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

But, here is a list of other people taken at 22:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-22

Even there, my eyeball test says that the majority of those guys outperformed Fab even in their rookie years. And, most of them were far younger than Fab, who at 22 was a very old NBA rookie.

No matter how you slice it, right now he's a bust. And while some will say that he started playing the game late, at some point that excuse stops mattering. He's played 2 years of D-1 ball and had one year on an NBA team, and he looks nowhere near being able to get any minutes at all.

[sofutomygaha]

Fab is wonderful. He's way better than anyone should expect at pick 22, and on top of it all he's a good egg. He's improving. He has a little sneaky jump hook. His body is improving.

Let's stop obsessing over the fact that he's not a good enough at basketball to play the sport professionally.

Let's focus on the positive.

I am very high, for example, on Fab's future as a high-shelf-stocker or chair tester. Right now, he doesn't have any training for either job, but I'm sure his future boss will acknowledge that is a late-comer to the retail world and will pay him an excellent salary over several years while he develops the necessary skills.

[jayk009]

If you just look at how he looks and the way he talks, you already know he's a moron.

It's hard enough to learn how to play basketball when you're just a normal person, but even harder when you're borderline special needs.

His future is being a bench player in a Brazilian league.

[Boris Badenov]

Fab is wonderful. He's way better than anyone should expect at pick 22, and on top of it all he's a good egg. He's improving. He has a little sneaky jump hook. His body is improving.

Let's stop obsessing over the fact that he's not a good enough at basketball to play the sport professionally.

Let's focus on the positive.

I am very high, for example, on Fab's future as a high-shelf-stocker or chair tester. Right now, he doesn't have any training for either job, but I'm sure his future boss will acknowledge that is a late-comer to the retail world and will pay him an excellent salary over several years while he develops the necessary skills.

Door frame tester?

[blink]

I've been down on him because he seems to have very little skill outside of shotblocking, and because I think Iverson is already a better player and should've been held onto for this season.

I agree 100% with this.  For whatever reason, the light just hasn't turned on yet for Fab.  He doesn't seem to have any one skill (maybe shotblocking) that would get him playing time right now.  He doesn't rebound well, doesn't hold position well on D.  Isn't a threat on O for much of anything yet (got blocked on a lot of shots around the rim in this years summer league). 

It doesn't mean he is a bad guy, he just doesn't look like an effective backup center right now.

In Iverson's minutes in summer league he at least looked like he could get minutes this year and benefit the team.  Maybe eventually playing into a backup Center role.

[timobusa]

Fab is good at breaking chairs and getting punched by the door.

Have you actually seen him play? For every 1 good thing he does on the court, he makes 2 or 3 bad plays.

He looks uncoordinated, confused and slow.
He fumbles the ball a lot, can't really safely secure a rebound. He has poor foot work.

All he's got working for him is he is 7 foot tall, and his leaping ability.

[CelticD]

so far i think melo has done everything he's supposed to do at this point. he was drafted late and was meant to be a long term project. he saw no real playin time in preseason or summer league, but was sent to the d-league where he was one of the best rookie centers in that league.

he was great defensively, and his offense improved a bit. the next season he goes to summer league, and put up a decent stat line of 6.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks, shooting 54.5% in 18.2 minutes. thats close to 12 points and 6 boards per 36 not great, but not bad either.

its all about improvements though. i think he's right where he's supposed to be.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Because people have really high expectations.

You nailed it right in the head when you said he's the 22nd pick. There's a bigger chance on missed at that spot over hits, and we needed a big body during the time we drafted him. We drafted for need and potential at that year when we had the back to back picks. Melo not panning out (as a 22nd pick BTW) for them feels like he's a bust of a top 10 pick.

[LooseCannon]

Of those 30 players, 25 played more NBA minutes than Fab last year. More qualitatively I would rank at least 15 of those guys as having clearly better seasons than Fab. It's still early but right now he is looking like the 40th-50th best plater taken in the draft - maybe worse if some of those Euros pan out.

I think it's understood that Melo is a project who wasn't expected to contribute as a rookie.

Here is an incomplete list of big men who played less than 100 minutes as a rookie in this century: Amir Johnson, Ian Mahinmi, Louis Amundson, Marcin Gortat, Kendrick Perkins, Kyrylo Fesenko. 

While the vast majority of players who fit that description turned out to be scrubs, not everyone did.  Maybe Melo ends up with the career of someone like two-time world champion DJ Mbenga.

At this point, I'm probably more concerned about Melo's history of domestic violence than I am about the speed of his progress.

[WeMadeIt17]

I am gonna keep it simple. He isn't good. He isn't a pro type player. Sorry.