How we can be back in contention after next year

[EDWARDO]

OK, I usually don't go in for the fantasy stuff too much and the chance of this happening is vanishingly small. BUT, its all plausible/possible and none of this even approaches the fantasy land trades we see on these blogs where we are trading utter trash and getting great players in return. I think each step in this is entirely feasible and all the trades are good ones. I haven't run them through the trade machine, but in each the salaries match(ish) and we have our trade exceptions and can lob around players to make the #s work.

Forget too much about whether you think this WILL actually happen, or even if you want it to happen. I want to show that we are actually in pretty good shape even without getting a top 5 pick in this coming draft and getting a shot at a "franchise altering super duper star". We currently have a TON of very tradeable assets along with 4-5 guys who can eventually be effective players on a title team. The difficulty is finding the top level guys that make the pieces all fit together perfectly.

Let's assume first that we stink next year, but are not horrendous and end up with the 10th pick. Doesn't really matter if its 7th or 12th or whatever. Just far enough away that we aren't looking at a sure-fire-we're-buiding-around-this-guy type of player.

Trade #1 - we trade Lee, Bass and a #1 for Omer Asik.  I can't believe I read some guys doubting his ability. He's a top 3 rebounder in the league and one of the best defensive players in the league. He's not atrocious offensively, but he will be happy taking zero shots and just playing great D and rebounding like crazy. He's an excellent player and a GREAT piece to a contender. Because he can dominate a game without needing the ball in his hands. Lee and Bass can help Houston compete NOW and Asik just can't play with Howard. They are both 5s and there's no escaping that you have two guys for one spot.

Trade #2 - What are the chances that Minnesota's season falls apart next year? 98%? 99%? The West is extremely competitive and there's 3-4 very good teams all fighting it out for that last playoff spot that the Lakers won't be getting this time around. The top 7 teams there look pretty set otherwise. After next year the clock will be ticking on the TWolves/Love relationship and the Celtics will be ready (again) to benefit from Minny's misfortune. We trade Jeff Green (coming off a 22/6/4 season in Boston as the main scorer) and THREE #1 picks for Love, one of which is our own #10 pick in a quite stocked draft (using the exception here to smooth the salary bumps). Included in this bounty are some unprotected #1s from NJ, which looks mighty tempting after they fall in the second round of the playoffs to Chicago and KG and PP look a bit toasted.

So far so good? These are reasonable trades I think.

Here's the final big piece. Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks situation is poised to fall apart on him. You can see it coming a mile away. JR Smith is going to be hurt, feeling "paid" and, well, he's just going to be JR Smith. Tyson Chandler's run of good health ends and and Bargnani is as mediocre as advertised. Raymond Felton just found a chicken/waffles place in Midtown. The Knicks disfunction hits an post-Isiah high and Carmelo does the smart thing and OPTS OUT.

He looks around...

Where can he win... BOSTON...

Rondo
Bradley/(need a shooter here)
Melo
Love
Asik

Sully
KO

That's the start of something there. That's 3 top 20 players and two all-defensive team stoppers. Two legit (we hope) bigs off the bench. We'd need to add a shooting win (or two) and a backup PG. That team contends. That team can win. Its also team that makes sense. Defenders. Tons of rebounding. A great scorer. A great point guard. Love doesn't need to be a primary scorer, but will give you 22 and 14 every night.

We'd need a House. We'd need a Posey. We'd still have a full compliment of picks (including at least one of the unprotected NJ picks). Love can play as a stretch 4. We'd need to add a scorer. It might make sense to move either KO or Sully for a better option at 2/3 who can shoot. We'd still have assets and flexibility.

Will this happen? No. Can it happen? Both these trades are good trades... I'm not trying to trade Wallace and Humphries for Pau Gasol or anything like that. These are FAIR and even trades.

I don't think or even want this to happen, but we have a lot of pieces in place with or without landing a top 5 pick. Like 2008, it would be nice to land Durant and contend for 12 years. But something along these lines could mean we'd compete for another 6 year window.

[Celtic]

I like the way your thinking, throw everyone for a loop and scrap tanking for the more recent Celtic's trend of rebuilding via trades. Supposedly Houston wants to hold onto Asik, or at least that's what they are saying to drive up his cost. If we know how good Asik is, so does Daryl Morey, He's gonna want more.

The Love deal is interesting, but given his injury history, can you really rely on him for a "win now" rebuild? I'd also think the Wolves would want more in return, the only way you'd get him for this low of a price is if his injuries persist and then you have to ask yourself if you'd still want him. Jeff Green is capable of putting up those numbers but he'd have to do it consistently, also unfortunately for him until he can create his shot via jumper off the dribble, he is still little more than an athletic slasher.

The Knicks window, which was never really open, is already shut. Everyone except them and their fans realizes they are extremely far from being a championship contender. I agree that much of what you predicted will happen, but I don't consider Carmelo to much of a thinker capable of realistically analyzing his situation and surroundings and making the brightest decision. The one thing I do think Carmelo realizes is that he is loved in New York and he doesn't want to lose that. He's already not thought of as a true premiere player in the NBA, and always a notch behind James, Wade and formerly Bosh in his draft class. I don't see Carmelo wanting to risk his popularity in a huge basketball market and potentially becoming a scorer moving from team to team.

[PhoSita]

You have quite an imagination.

[LooseCannon]

As I have pointed out in the past, the Celtics have the flexibility to add a max contract guy in the summer of 2014, whether by trade or by free agency.  If a trade is necessary, the Celtics have the assets to make a deal without giving up Rondo.

Will a player whose production is worth more than a max contract become available?  Will that player be willing to come to Boston, if he has a choice?  Those are the questions. 

If the Celtics make the playoffs or are close, then they will be perceived as a young team on the rise with an excellent coach and any superstar who is interested in winning championships will find the team an intriguing destination.

[Q_FBE]

Need a House and a Posey - Just use Kieth Bogans!!

[Evantime34]

I think if we can get a young center and a good lottery pick next year then we can have a young core that will grow into contention. Right now I'm championing Aaron Gordon and Larry Sanders as two players we could add to our core to give us the possibility to grow into a contender in the future.

[e4sym0de]

I really like your post and agree that we are in good shape moving forward.

I have to disagree at your point of signing "the superstar" via free agency as it will very likely not be possible for the reason that the Celtics will simply not have  enough capspace.

[rondoallaturca]

No thanks to Melo.
I like Love but I think he's overrated just because he's statistically dominant.

[chambers]

Great idea actually. TP.
Only glaring problem I see is at SG but yeah we'll work that out. If worse came to worst I'd see Sully staying instead of K Love or Going after an Aldridge type.

I'm not sure how much salary we could take on either...
The trade exception will help but
Rondo 12 million
Asik 10 million
Carmelo 15 million
Love 15 million...
and the rest...
Wonder how close it would be to the tax line?

[JBcat]

Some really good ideas.   I do see the Knicks as a very fragile team, even though good right now.  I wonder if it would have to be a sign and trade for Melo, and give up some assets.  If we could trade for Love while holding on to Sully and KO that would be awesome.  We would have to feel pretty optimistic we could get Melo otherwise we would have a huge hole at SF. 

My dream in fantasy world would be OKC falls apart with Westbrook never the same after his injury, they never find a suitable replacement for Harden, and now Martin, and Durant has to carry too much of the load.  OKC then decides to hit the reset button.  Maybe between the Love and Durant trade you give up Green, Sully and/or KO if you have to, maybe 7 picks total, 3 from NJ, the Clippers pick, our own next year another future first of ours, and the right to swap picks with NJ in 2017.   Do the Asik trade and your starting lineup would be Rondo, Bradley, Durant, Love, and Asik.    Maybe upgrade Bradley if you need to later on. 

[SHAQATTACK]

kiddnap.  Dwight Howard?

[Celtics4ever]

I think this rebuild will be better than the last because we don't have Pitino giving away guys like Billups and Johnson.

[jambr380]

All of those things seem fairly plausible so good job on not being a total homer...

However, if Green puts up 22/6/4, there is no way I am trading him plus three firsts (including a lottery pick in a great draft) for freakin' Kevin Love. I do agree that Green might need to be traded in order to bring in Melo (which I would be in favor of), but I would prefer a different star type player. I just have never been a huge Love fan and would rather have Aldridge or Bosh...

[aporel#18]

I agree that we can get back in contention after next year, and you're right in that we should do it through trades, but I'm not sold on those trade proposals.

Asik is a good C, but I don't think it's a good idea paying him 14M next year. He could be useful as a trade chip at the 2015 deadline, though.

Love is a great PF, but we would need to send Green + 3 picks, maybe more, while we have Sully, a poor man Love.

Melo is the anti-Celtic. Nice scorer, very talented, but I don't like him in Celtic green.

What would I do instead:

Trade Humphries for a 12M TPE (and Philly's 2014 2nd rounder) to the Sixers.

Trade Bass to Minnesota for Derrick Williams, same years, but 1M less salary. The Wolves get the better player, Celtics get another trade chip.

Trade Lee+Crawford+Shav for either

- Landry Fields + Terence Ross from Toronto

- Beasley + Kendall Marshall + future pick from Phoenix

OR

Trade Lee to Memphis for Tony Wroten + TPE

Trade Shav+Crawford to the Sixers for Kwame Brown expiring contract.

If you can't get a good return for Bass, you can package him with Shav+Crawford to get a bigger expiring contract, like Biedrins.

You end up with basically

Rondo/Pressey
Bradley/Bogans
Green/Crash/
Sully/
KO/Melo/Iverson

plus young pieces + expiring contracts + trade exceptions (and a couple of terrible contracts, especially if they traded for Beasley or Fields). Danny could combine those pieces with picks to get one or two All Star-caliber pieces around the 2014 trade deadline and/or draft. Since the Cs will play/showcase a lot of young players, they'll likely get a top 10 or maybe top 5 pick, which becomes another building block or a highly valuable trade chip, keeping flexibility for the future.

Next summer, depending on how good can Ainge do, he'll extend Rondo (maybe Bradley too), or he might go nuke mode and trade everyone on the roster. Hopefully he can make some steps towards contending again as soon as possible.

[dreamgreen]

This type of idea is a possibility. I'm not sure how good Asik is, but if you could get him to sign a fair extension I'm all ears (his $14-15m pay out next year is absurd, and yes I realize it was done to make is hard for the Bulls? to match it). But clearly like most teams we need to upgrade our Center.

I'm not trading Green and all those picks for Kevin Love. He would have to have a magical season for me think about that. Plus I want to see what we have in Sully and KO (I'm high on him right now, we'll see how goes).

I'm not as anti-Melo as others, but I would have to imagine if we got Melo and would be sign & trade (he seems like the type that wants all the $ he can get), so Green would have to be a part of that IMO.

Starting the '14 season?:
Rondo/need a legit back up
?   this is our second biggest weakness IMO, we really need     a shooter (wonder of DA would trade for Rivers and see if he can grow as a player)
Green
Sully/KO combo
?/Vito (he may surprise us)/KO