Yes, another pro tanking thread. Lets look at recent NBA history for some facts.

[chambers]

So you don't want to tank because it's not the Celtic way. We should fight, because only the Bobcats and the Pelicans are tankers-those small market teams without much hope of signing giant free agents. They're not cornerstone franchises like the Boston Celtics and tanking doesn't get you anywhere.
 Very honorable, very loyal to the ideals and winning tradition of the Boston Celtics.
You can also do the same comparison to the 2007 draft and netting the number 5 pick (instead of Kevin Durant or Oden) and how that got us Kevin Garnett to join our franchise player Paul Pierce.

The argument is good hearted and your intentions reflect what all of us as Celtics would love to do to get better and win another banner.
The reality is in any sport with a salary cap it's going to be impossible to retain success without an up and down period for years at a time. You need luck in the NBA. You're saying you don't get anywhere by losing. The reality of the NBA is that you don't get anywhere without playing the game correctly.

1)Look at the top 5 players in the NBA at every position. Seriously make a legitimate list and then have a look where they were drafted. Were most of them in the top 5 or top 10?

2)Now Have a look at the last 25 years of NBA finalist teams and eventual Champions.
How many of those teams won a championship or made the finals that didn't have a player they drafted themselves in the top 10 ?
The 2004 Pistons are the only team without their own top 10 pick and there's Kobe Bryant at number 13 in the lottery out of high school. Had he played NCAA he'd got top 5 unquestionably. Those are the two I could come up with.

Are there any others?
It's a simple equation. Championship winners are drafted in the top 10. They are given the proper support by adding  other all stars to help their cause. Howard and Lebron took their teams to the finals. Their teams failed to surround them with the right cast but they still made the finals as young top 5 picks.

How do you acquire those picks? By suffering for a period of time-even if it's a season or two in a best case scenario. It's the unfortunate truth of salary capped sports and the NBA.
It's not a guarantee. In fact there might be one true franchise guy. But there may be two or three.
This is our chance.
If you want to win a championship and you don't have a franchise player that you drafted, you're going to need to tank in 95% of cases to get the player you need to take you all the way. I mean the OKC Thunder got Durant, Westbrook and Harden and they still couldn't get there. (yet). What do you think our chances are with Jeff Green and Rondo with any All Stars in the next 2 seasons before Rondo's deal is over in 2015? Remember Kevin Love and Marc Gasol are free agents at the same time as Rondo- he's not on the roster then.

I don't think the Celtics have a franchise player-and we need one to help Rondo. We have Rondo, a bench All Star behind Rose in the East. If only he could score a little more consistently- at age 27 he's a second option and most likely not moving up into the 'franchise' category.


You're kidding yourself if you think we can win a championship with Rondo by not drafting Wiggins or Paker or Randle. Even suffering with Rondo for one season to potentially pick one of those guys is completely worth the risk.

It sucks but it's the reality of the situation. This isn't baseball where you can go out and buy the best guys and put out a product like the Yankees every year. (tell that the Russian Nets owner haha).

There are at least of these potential franchise changers (talent wise) in this draft and it's arguably moronic if you think we should lose out on a chance to get one of these guys for the sake of winning 30 games instead of 20 because of 'Celtic pride'.

Sometimes it's better to retreat, find cover and re- evaluate. There's a serious opportunity cost involved this season and it involves one of the most loaded NBA drafts in the last 20 years. We're talking about Kevin Durant, Dwayne Wade, Derrick Rose and perhaps even Lebron James' potential. Franchise player potential.

[Celtics18]

Every single team in the NBA (from the very worst to the very best)have found themselves in the lottery at some point.  So, saying that being in the lottery is the key factor to building a champion is silly.  I may as well say that the key to winning a championship is having at least one minimum salary veteran on your roster. 

Sure, you need great players, but there are a number of NBA champions who have gotten great players by means other than drafting them in the top ten of the draft. 

[Vox_Populi]

Every single team in the NBA (from the very worst to the very best)have found themselves in the lottery at some point.  So, saying that being in the lottery is the key factor to building a champion is silly.  I may as well say that the key to winning a championship is having at least one minimum salary veteran on your roster. 

Sure, you need great players, but there are a number of NBA champions who have gotten great players by means other than drafting them in the top ten of the draft.

I agree with your point. When it comes to Championship teams, I'm sure there are any number of arbitrary similarities shared among all of them. 

[Yogi]

It is possible, but not certain, that a top 5 talent is needed to win a championship.  It is not guaranteed that even multiple top 5 picks will get you even into the playoffs. 

Cavaliers have had drafted 5 lottery picks, 4 in the top 5, two number 1s, one superstar and they still YEARS away from contending.  That is after hitting the jackpot with Irving.

Kyrie Irving
Dion Waiters
Anthony Bennett
Tyler Zeller
Tristan Thompson

Why in the world would anyone want to run head first into that?

[TeamGreen.dm]

Every single team in the NBA (from the very worst to the very best)have found themselves in the lottery at some point.  So, saying that being in the lottery is the key factor to building a champion is silly.  I may as well say that the key to winning a championship is having at least one minimum salary veteran on your roster. 

Sure, you need great players, but there are a number of NBA champions who have gotten great players by means other than drafting them in the top ten of the draft. 

Is the point your making is that you have too draft your team in order to become a championship team or that you need to have at least top 10 picks on your team?

But the true fact is that NO team is gonna win now a days with one star on your team. Rondo needs paired with a star no matter if we do it through the draft(Wiggins,Parker,Randle,Gordon) or we land a top free agent

[syfy9]

It is possible, but not certain, that a top 5 talent is needed to win a championship.  It is not guaranteed that even multiple top 5 picks will get you even into the playoffs. 

Cavaliers have had drafted 5 lottery picks, 4 in the top 5, two number 1s, one superstar and they still YEARS away from contending.  That is after hitting the jackpot with Irving.

Kyrie Irving
Dion Waiters
Anthony Bennett
Tyler Zeller
Tristan Thompson

Why in the world would anyone want to run head first into that?

It's better than how the Bobcats have been doing for most of their franchise.

The fact that they've been so low means that they've been accumulating talent. That is so undervalued - having more talent than the other team. Lebron's team never had the sort of talent that Kyrie has.



Lebron didn't make the playoffs until his 3rd season, y'know.

[merkins]

It is possible, but not certain, that a top 5 talent is needed to win a championship.  It is not guaranteed that even multiple top 5 picks will get you even into the playoffs. 

Cavaliers have had drafted 5 lottery picks, 4 in the top 5, two number 1s, one superstar and they still YEARS away from contending.  That is after hitting the jackpot with Irving.

Kyrie Irving
Dion Waiters
Anthony Bennett
Tyler Zeller
Tristan Thompson

Why in the world would anyone want to run head first into that?

Bennett hasn't even played yet and Zeller/Waiters are going into a second year.  Irving is a stud, I'd take that team over what we are looking at these days.  Don't buy your argument at all.

[lightspeed5]

Jabari Parker is the 2nd coming of Paul Pierce

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUmrfRYloKw

[Yogi]

It is possible, but not certain, that a top 5 talent is needed to win a championship.  It is not guaranteed that even multiple top 5 picks will get you even into the playoffs. 

Cavaliers have had drafted 5 lottery picks, 4 in the top 5, two number 1s, one superstar and they still YEARS away from contending.  That is after hitting the jackpot with Irving.

Kyrie Irving
Dion Waiters
Anthony Bennett
Tyler Zeller
Tristan Thompson

Why in the world would anyone want to run head first into that?

Bennett hasn't even played yet and Zeller/Waiters are going into a second year.  Irving is a stud, I'd take that team over what we are looking at these days.  Don't buy your argument at all.

When do you think the Cavs would be a contender?  This season?  Next season?  3 seasons have passed since they got Kyrie Irving and they haven't made the playoffs.  Like you yourself pointed out Lebron didn't make the playoffs for 3 years and he's on track to becoming the greatest player of his generation. 

People who want to tank think that once we land Wiggins it would be easy to build a contender.  Yet Irving, Wall, Griffin, Rose, Oden, Bargnani, Bogut haven't reached the finals, and Howard has only reached the finals once which he lost.  Lebron only won a championship when he left Cleveland to join a playoff team with a star in his prime. 

The chances of building a contender around Rondo are way higher than tanking for a top 5 pick and building a contender around that player.  Howard joined Harden to make Houston a contender.  Lebron and Bosh joined Wade to make Miami champions.  Gasol and Shaq joined Kobe to help make LA champions.  Chris Paul joined Griffin to help make Clippers a contender. 

The ONE example of quickly building a contender through the draft is OKC.  To do that, you only have to draft Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Green and Ibaka.  If Wiggins became Durant that would be a miracle.  And then to hope for our next 4 picks to be Westbrook, Harden, Green and Ibaka is near impossible.  That is IF we even win the lottery to get the number one pick.  Even OKC didn't get the number one pick, they had to have the additional miracle of Portland taking Greg Oden with the number one pick so they wouldn't have!

[BleedGreen1989]

Ugh why do people even bother debating with Chambers? He's been preaching pro-tank talk all summer...

[guava_wrench]

Only one thing is needed to win it all. A good enough team. Some luck is also usually needed.

It is also misguided to look for single variables to claim as the 'key' to anything. That is not how such analysis is properly done. The best you can do is say how much of the variability in a particular outcome a particular variable has.

In order to do that, you have to do the math. The OP is alluding to an important variable, but to say something credible regarding it requires doing the math. Otherwise, we mostly end up with spin as people explain using their personal intuitions and opportunistically include numbers.

[chambers]

Every single team in the NBA (from the very worst to the very best)have found themselves in the lottery at some point.  So, saying that being in the lottery is the key factor to building a champion is silly.  I may as well say that the key to winning a championship is having at least one minimum salary veteran on your roster. 

Sure, you need great players, but there are a number of NBA champions who have gotten great players by means other than drafting them in the top ten of the draft.

There aren't many. In fact look at the last 10 years of NBA finals teams. (I've posted this before you've probably seen it), but just to re-iterate.

2003 finals Spurs vs Nets Duncan, Kenyon Martin (this year the Marbury-Kidd trade was the Nets key contributing  key move, but Martin was a key factor too. It's arguable from 2000-2003 was one of the worst Eastern Conferences in NBA history).
2004Lakers vs Pistons(Kobe) Pistons (no home drafted star)
2005 Spurs vs Pistons(Duncan) (as above)
2006 Mavs vs Heat (Nowitzki) (Wade)
2007 Spurs vs Cavs (Duncan) (Lebron)
2008 Lakers vs Celtics (Pierce) (Kobe)[/b]
2009 Lakers vs Magic (Kobe) (Dwight Howard)[/b]
2010 Lakers vs Celtics (Kobe) (Pierce)[/b]
2011 Mavs vs Heat (Dirk) (Wade)
2012 OKC Thunder vs Heat (Durant) (Wade)
2013 Spurs vs Heat(Duncan) (Wade)[/b]

Same for the top 5 at each position in the NBA.

History sees a future for us without a championship unless we draft a superstar/franchise guy or we get a high pick and combine that pick in a trade for a superstar. There hasn't been a better year (in theory/potential wise) than the upcoming draft in 2014.

I'm not always in favor of tanking. If the free agent market were stacked this off season and next off season I'd be keen to try and build around Rondo and Green. But Rondo is a free agent in 2015 and I don't think we currently have the assets to put a franchise guy or 2 other all star around him and Green at this point with only 2 years left before he can walk.
If you can show me a potential way to land a franchise guy while Rondo's here then show me. I'm all ears/eyes.

Combine the fact that there are simply no game changing free agents other than Lebron/Melo in 2014 or this off season and the fact that Rondo's contract ends the year after, it's a good time to consider playing the game differently or the way that's most likely to land you a superstar.

Seems like a year to maximize our opportunity cost doesn't it?

[Roy H.]

Don't worry:  by March, 75%+ of the blog will be rooting for losses right along with you.  Danny won't give anybody the choice.

[SHAQATTACK]

Don't worry:  by March, 75%+ of the blog will be rooting for losses right along with you.  Danny won't give anybody the choice.

this sounds like the voice of experience 

[chambers]

Ugh why do people even bother debating with Chambers? He's been preaching pro-tank talk all summer...

And you're there in every thread saying how bad of an idea it is without explaining why. You haven't debated, you've realized you're wrong and the truth hurts.
Please outline a way for us to get the next championship without the use of a top 10 pick via drafting or using that pick to trade for a franchise player.

You keep hatin' but give no credible input into the discussion. You just don't wanna tank just because.
Tell me your plan to make the Celtics a contender with Olynyk, Sully, Rondo for 2 seasons and Jeff Green with a few top 15 picks and Nets picks sprinkled on top.