Blakely: C's look to deal Wallace & Humphries

[clover]

I'd take back that Amare contract for sure to get out of the extra year of the Wallace and Lee contracts.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=q98elhh

Absolutely, I would do this deal in an absolute heartbeat.

We desperately need a starting calibre center right now, and we desperately need a go-to scorer to pair with Green.

Best case - Amare comes back, stays healthy and continues along his 22 Point, 9 Rebound, 55% FG, .174 WS/48 career average.  The trio of Rondo / Amare / Green becomes the new Rondo / Pierce / KG and we find outself back into top 4 position in the East.

Worst case - Amare comes back, suffers yet another career ending injury, we end up sucking badly.  We get a high ranking in the next draft and pick up a gem in the 2014 draft.  Our new draft pick has a great ROY type season in 2014, then wows the league in 2015...then at the end of 2015 Amare's contract runs out and $24M in salary comes off our books so we can sign an All-Star to pair with Rondo and our new young superstar (hopeful).

Honestly, with the current roster we are are fringe playoff team.  We are NOT going to be bad enough to be a high lottery team, and we won't be good enough to get past the first round of the playoffs (if that).  If we make this trade for Amare we lose Lee, Humphreys and Wallace in the process.  If Amare comes back and cannot play, we basically lose those three guys for nothing and become a sure-fire lottery team.  If he comes back and plays well, we have a legit shot at a top 4 seed.

I would much rather take Amare his $24M comes off the books after 2015...rather than have Wallace's $10M on the books 2016 and Lee's on the books until 2017.  That's an extra $15M saved off our salary in 2016 if we don't make that trade.

Honestly though, I'm not sure the Knicks would do this. 

If they keep Amare they have a potential All-Star and pay:
$22M in 2014
$24M in 2015

If they do this trade they have three scrubs and pay:
$27M in 2014
$15M in 2015
$5M in 2016

For a team that has as much money to throw around as the Knicks do, in 'win now' mode and already well over the salary cap, how does it help them saving $2M this year and $7M in 2015?  They wouldn't really see a big reward until Wallace comes off the books in 2016, and by that time Amare's contract would have expired anyway.

BUT

If we only send Humphries and Wallace, I think they take it in a heartbeat.  In this case they take back:
$22M in 2014 (no change)
$10M in 2015 ($14M salary drop)

That is a major improvement in their cap situation for 2015, and it's quite possible that either Humphries or Wallace could take Amare's place adequately as a backup PF (Wallace) or C (Humphries).

It works for us because we are a rebuilding team.  Holding Humphries is really useless for us because even once his contract expires, we still only drop $12M.  We are already at about 70M so that only brings us down to about $58M, which is still up around the cap limit and no real use for a team that's in rebuild mode.  However, if we trade for Amare then $24M comes off our books in 2016, and that brings us down to about $46M - well under the cap.

Plus in all honest, I would much rather pay $46M to Amare over the next two seasons rather than pay $30M to Wallace over the next three.  At least Amare has he potential to teansform the team into a legit playoff threat (if healthy) or catapult is right into the lottery (if not). 

Also for those who call me crazy for suggesting Amare (if healthy) can impact the team, just look at his win share stats.  Last season he was injured and came off the bench.  He averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds and 58% FG in 24 minutes, and those numbers were good enough for a WS/48 of .191 - to put that into perspective the WS/48 of some of our players were:

S Randolf: 0.159 (Yes, I had to do a double take also)
J Sullinger: 0.146
P Pierce: 0.135
K Garnett: 0.133
R Rondo: 0.108
B Bass: 0.101
J Green: 0.099
J Terry: 0.091
L Barbosa: 0.086
C Lee: 0.082 (Yes he was terrible, nobody believes me)
T Williams 0.046
J Crawford: 0.041
J Collins: 0.016

Also just for fun, the WS/48 for the guys we are getting:

K Humphries: 0.109
G Wallace: 0.072
M Brooks: 0.068
K Bogans: 0.047
K Joseph: -0.008

Ouch....

I'll take that gamble on Amare any day.

First, I think we should consider the most likely case that Amare would be able to come back and help a little, in and out of the lineup, but not a lot--and so help to deliver the team to 7th or 8th seed purgatory and out of the 2014 draft.

Then, we should account for Wallace actually being the only 'bad' contract we have right now that probably can't be traded to at least a neutral outcome elsewhere.

Finally, we'd be looking to save a year on Wallace's deal in exchange for the trade.  I'm not saying it's not something that one might consider, just that there's less likely benefit to it than might outwardly appear.

[Boris Badenov]

If by analytics you mean your unfounded opinion then yes Chicago is better without Boozer.  If you mean actual data then you should provide a link.

Edit: Don't call others opinions unfounded. This is your warning

-Fafnir.

I think this moderation was really excessive. A little rhetorical jibe keeps things interesting. I feel like the moderator here was moderating just to moderate. And that takes the fun out of it. Mods - please show some restraint going forward.

I'm with you. I don't get the motivation for the mod's comment.

"Unfounded" simply means "not supported by data or sound evidence."

It doesn't seem to be a personal attack to me, or even something baiting or insulting. It's a descriptive adjective.

There are opinions guided by data, and opinions that are unfounded. I think that's a useful distinction.

[nickagneta]

Every opinion is relevant and everyone has the right to one. No opinion is unfounded. Saying so basically is saying that the person doesn't have a right to that opinion or even worse.

An opinion might not be based on data, that doesn't mean it is unfounded.

[Boris Badenov]

Every opinion is relevant and everyone has the right to one. No opinion is unfounded. Saying so basically is saying that the person doesn't have a right to that opinion or even worse.

An opinion might not be based on data, that doesn't mean it is unfounded.

I guess we differ on the meaning of the word, but one definition is "not supported by facts."

If there's a card deck with 9 red cards and one black one, I can have an opinion that a card drawn from it will probably be red, and that's supported by data.

If I'm playing roulette in a casino (and the game is not rigged) and have a hunch that the next number will be 00, that's an unfounded opinion.

Note that in both cases it's just an opinion, since it can't be proven. But in one case there's data behind the opinion, and in the other case there's not.

I agree with you 100% that people are always entitled to their opinions.

And in general I will say that I like the firm hand that mods on this board take.

[Yogi]

Every opinion is relevant and everyone has the right to one. No opinion is unfounded. Saying so basically is saying that the person doesn't have a right to that opinion or even worse.

An opinion might not be based on data, that doesn't mean it is unfounded.

Perhaps it is because English is my second language, but the only understanding of the word unfounded I have is literally "lacking in foundation."  I am unaware of any connotation that means "irrelevant."  Certainly nothing that comes close to meaning "not having a right to."  But I apologize if my words could be interpreted in that sense.  It was my intent only to criticize, not to offend.

[gpap]

Every opinion is relevant and everyone has the right to one. No opinion is unfounded. Saying so basically is saying that the person doesn't have a right to that opinion or even worse.

An opinion might not be based on data, that doesn't mean it is unfounded.

One issue that I am noticing is there are some posters who act like they are know it alls.
It's as if they act like they are working in the Celtics front office and think they know the organizations short and long term plans.

Newsflash: You don't!!!

[hwangjini_1]

Every opinion is relevant and everyone has the right to one. No opinion is unfounded. Saying so basically is saying that the person doesn't have a right to that opinion or even worse.

An opinion might not be based on data, that doesn't mean it is unfounded.

I guess we differ on the meaning of the word, but one definition is "not supported by facts."

If there's a card deck with 9 red cards and one black one, I can have an opinion that a card drawn from it will probably be red, and that's supported by data.

If I'm playing roulette in a casino (and the game is not rigged) and have a hunch that the next number will be 00, that's an unfounded opinion.

Note that in both cases it's just an opinion, since it can't be proven. But in one case there's data behind the opinion, and in the other case there's not.

I agree with you 100% that people are always entitled to their opinions.

And in general I will say that I like the firm hand that mods on this board take.

I agree with Boris on both counts. The mods here do a good job and this is one example of that.

The key is not the words "unfounded opinion" as much as the contrast with the first part of the sentence. Honestly, it had "snarky remark" written into it as I read it. It clearly demeaned a poster and I am glad the mods pointed it out.

This blog is a way for us all to momentarily escape what is often a crappy reality folks.  Let's do our best to make it a good place to be, and civility, even when disagreeing with one another, is one way to do that.

[vjcsmoke]

Was thinking the same thing actually... The Humphries deal is pretty big, but should be moveable. We might have to take an extra year back from someone, but he would be a rotation guy for a team like the Pacers, I think.... if we can get him back to his 2011/12 form. Its NOT a physical thing... just getting out of the NY spotlight and getting some minutes should do it for him....

Why would we flip Humphries to get MORE years of contract?  Doesn't make sense.  He will become an expiring at the trade deadline which makes him good trade bait at that point.