I haven't been a proponent of trading Rondo in the past. Not that I would have been wholly opposed to it, but it made sense to me that Rondo could well be one of the two best players on the Banner 18 Celtics team. He [dang] near was 13 months ago when we took Miami to 7 games. KG and PP are in decline, and were very very unlikely to be on the Banner 18 Celtics, so the logic of The Trade is sound. Trading Rondo though, would by no means follow directly from the same logic.
Keeping Rondo preserves a huge asset. A top 20-25 player capable of becoming a top 5-10 player when it matters most. He might drive us a bit batty at times, but in the playoff, the kid is awesome. You need AT LEAST two stars to win a title, and I'm pretty content thinking Rondo can be one of them.
However.... I have been thinking about how the next 8-10 months unfold, and then the next year after that. Assuming Rondo's recovery from the injury goes as planned, and there's really no reason to think it wouldn't, he will be back playing in the middle of next season and should be basically "good as new" at that point. He's not had injury issues in the past, so there should be a relatively clean bill of health for him. This seems like a pretty safe bet, though some could argue its not a sure thing.
Let's say that unfolds for sake of argument. Then what do we have? A top 5 PG under a great contract for another 1.5 years who is desperate to win, yet stuck on a 25-35 win team. A player doesn't need to be moody or a coach killer to start to get agitated in that situation. He will be 28 years old, in the prime of his career, and stuck for the foreseeable future on a bad/mediocre team. And guess what, when his contract is up the following year, he'll be a 29yr PG who will expect AND GET a max deal from someone. Would you want to be tied down to Rajon for 6yrs, $90mm at that point? I'm not totally opposed, but I'm also not so sure it would be the best thing ever. A smart GM, and Danny is smart, is thinking about this now and won't let it sneak up on him. Its not a lose-lose situation, he's just got to be aware of what's coming down the road at him here.
IF we aren't winning and he's NOT happy, we would also have to weigh the possibility of losing him in 18mths time, or at least losing the leverage to do a favorable sign-and-trade if he becomes deeply disenchanted in the meantime. In terms of our leverage, we'd perhaps be optimizing our potential trade value by trading him earlier rather than later.
In addition, the value of Rondo's very cheap contract are lost on us for now. For a true contender, having a great player under a less-than-market value contract is HUGELY valuable. It allows you to add the final pieces to a potential title team. For a 30 win team, sure its nice, but really, what would we do with an extra 3-5mm in cap space? Not really anything. Over the past few years that extra money was used to get guys like Bass, Lee, Jet et al - veteran players who could potentially play a role pushing a team over the top. For the 2013/14 Celtics, its not like we're itching to add Sammy Dalembert or some 6th/7th man to change the outlook for our team. We're going to be playing/developing the young guys.
The only way to trade Rondo, however, would be for a guy with a legit shot at being a best 1-2 guy on a championship team. If I see another Rondo for Shumpert/Felton idea, I think I'll puke. You don't trade a dollar for to 50c pieces in the NBA. NEVER. Let alone two dimes like Shumpert/Felton.
Trading him becomes very very difficult in that case. I keep coming back to Detroit as the most likely place for him to land, but it would HAVE to be for Drummond. I just don't think Monroe is a strong enough asset (he seems like a good "3rd best guy on a title team" to me, not a "chips are down, we're going to war led by this guy" type). I do think that Drummond could develop into that kind of player. And as a legit back-to-the-basket bruiser center, he could be the kind of player that's worth taking a long term gamble on. He certainly seems to be developing in the right way. Zach Lowe and the SG were discussing this trade on the pod and both agreed that if the Celtics could get Drummond for Rondo, they should do it.
Again, I'm not saying they SHOULD trade him, and please don't try to ship him off without getting a potential #1/2 type back for him. I'm just saying things are still pretty fluid. If we get to January 15th and his attitude isn't exactly where it should be (but his body is), there would be good reasons to think we should be exploring the possibilities.