Prediction: We contend next season...for worst record

[Yogi]

1. Harris already signed with Dallas.
2. Pachulia signed with Milwaukee.
3. Teague also has signed an offer sheet with Milwaukee.
4. When did Al Horford become a dominant center?

1. My bad
2. Pachulia will be missed, but Mike Scott was playing really well before - his offense might > Pachulia's defense.
3. And the Hawks can match this offer if they so desire. There is also talk that they might do a S&T w/ Teague for Jennings. If not, Monta Ellis or Nate Robinson are decent options. There is a lot of flexibility here because they lost out on the Howard signing.
4. Well, he averaged 17 and 10 last season at a 54% clip. He's one of the most coveted centers around.

Mike Scott?  Nate Robinson?  17 and 10 is nice but not exactly dominant.  Man-to-man the Celtics roster is much better than the Hawks roster. 

[Celtics18]

Teams in the East that I think we have a legitimate shot at being better than next season:

Philadelphia
Toronto
Orlando
Charlotte
Milwaukee
Washington
Atlanta
Cleveland
Detroit

Teams that (barring major injury) will in all likelihood be better than us:

Miami
Indiana
New York
New Jersey
Chicago

I count 14 teams. 

14 + Boston= 15

[BballTim]

Is there a specific name for overvaluing players on other teams while undervaluing young players on your own team?  Or do we just stick with ignorance?

It's called perception.

Overvaluing your own unproven players on your own team, on the other hand, is called being a homer.


My basis is that those teams are going to theoretically do well - the free agent signings and potential breakout seasons are the major factors.

  If all those teams do as well as you expect it's perception. If not...

[SHAQATTACK]

either contend for the banner or contend for the lotto pics

doing in between is nowhere.

[Celtics18]

either contend for the banner or contend for the lotto pics

doing in between is nowhere.

I'm sorry, I hate that mentality.  If every team who doesn't project to be in the hunt for the title should be tanking, then about 28 teams in the NBA should be trying harder to lose than to win next season.

I mean, the Pacers, the Knicks, the Nets, and the Bulls all look to have decent rosters going into next season, but does anyone really like their chance to knock of Miami?

They should all just tank.  Right?

[scaryjerry]

if the bobcats can get monta ellis, that would do wonders for our tanking prospects.

I think the Bobcats are going the positive direction with the Big Al signing. My guess is that they push for the playoffs either way.

I'd rather he go to either a potential tanking team (like Dallas, Minnesota, Portland, and Utah) to encourage them not to tank or an already bad team (Sacramento, Phoenix, Orlando) that is looking to tank. Any team that is still garnering assets.

What's with your perception of big al making the bobcats legit? It's astonishing frankly...big al is a career loser who's never helped a team make the playoffs, and I'm pretty sure he's content with it especially after getting a new contract, yawn. A career loser signing with the biggest joke of a franchise equals playoffs I guess...

[slamtheking]

Right now I see four distinctive tiers in the East, with each team in order:

- Playoff locks
Miami
New York
Indiana
Brooklyn
Chicago
Atlanta

- Playoff hopefuls
Washington
Cleveland
Detroit
Toronto

- Playoff longshots
Milwaukee
Boston

- Playoff dreamers
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia

That puts us as a bottom 5 team in the East, and bottom 6 team in the league when you factor in Phoenix in the West. Among those six teams, I can very realistically see Boston finishing behind Milwaukee, which would make us a bottom 5 team in the league. Orlando and Charlotte also have enough young talent to potentially surprise everyone, but I won't put stock in that.

I think it's more like this:
- Playoff locks
Miami
New York
Indiana
Brooklyn
Chicago
Cleveland

- Playoff hopefuls
Washington
Milwaukee
Atlanta
Detroit

- Playoff longshots
Toronto
Orlando

- Playoff dreamers
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Boston

The more I look at the C's, the more I see a team that is lacking a defensive presense, a go-to scorer to close out a close game and a sense of identity.  I think we have some players that will be able to score but not when another team really applies defensive pressure.  I like a number of our players as good role players if they're supporting a superstar but we don't have one of those.  Rondo isn't that superstar but he's a really good 3rd banana to have on the team (until he's a threat to average 18 points a game, he's not a second banana on a team)

[LilRip]

Agreed. Defense will definitely be a problem. I've said before that we will likely end up in the bottom 10 in the league in defense. We'll be able to score and the team will be exciting to watch because I assume we'll run more, but we're not enough of an offensive juggernaut to consistently shoot our way to victory.

[dreamgreen]

I'm not sure, there are a lot of bad teams and we really don't know what the roster is going to be opening day.

[RyNye]

They are looking pretty legit when it comes to playoff birthing. Al Jefferson will drastically improve them. I'd put them in playoff hopefuls, but wouldn't argue if someone put them under playoff longshots. But they are most certainly not playoff dreamers.

Al Jefferson is not a star player. He is a terrible defensive player, and a slightly above average offensive one (his shooting percentages are really low for someone who supposedly has this great post game).

We have about 10 seasons worth of evidence that Al Jefferson is not a star. What makes you think he is going to change now?

He improves Charlotte only in the sense that he isn't abjectly terrible like the rest of their roster. He improves them from 10-20 wins to 25-30 wins, at absolute most.

[slamtheking]

They are looking pretty legit when it comes to playoff birthing. Al Jefferson will drastically improve them. I'd put them in playoff hopefuls, but wouldn't argue if someone put them under playoff longshots. But they are most certainly not playoff dreamers.

Al Jefferson is not a star player. He is a terrible defensive player, and a slightly above average offensive one (his shooting percentages are really low for someone who supposedly has this great post game).

We have about 10 seasons worth of evidence that Al Jefferson is not a star. What makes you think he is going to change now?

He improves Charlotte only in the sense that he isn't abjectly terrible like the rest of their roster. He improves them from 10-20 wins to 25-30 wins, at absolute most.

so in your words that's a 10-15 game swing.  seems like a significant upgrade to their roster.  If any of their young players finally steps up, I think they'll do even better.  Landing Ellis would certainly put them into a 30-win range which could be enough to pass this C's roster.

[TeamGreen.dm]

1. Harris already signed with Dallas.
2. Pachulia signed with Milwaukee.
3. Teague also has signed an offer sheet with Milwaukee.
4. When did Al Horford become a dominant center?

1. My bad
2. Pachulia will be missed, but Mike Scott was playing really well before - his offense might


> Pachulia's defense.
3. And the Hawks can match this offer if they so desire. There is also talk that they might do a S&T w/ Teague for Jennings. If not, Monta Ellis or Nate Robinson are decent options. There is a lot of flexibility here because they lost out on the Howard signing.
4. Well, he averaged 17 and 10 last season at a 54% clip. He's one of the most coveted centers around.

Mike Scott?  Nate Robinson?  17 and 10 is nice but not exactly dominant.  Man-to-man the Celtics roster is much better than the Hawks roster. 

Better than the Hawks man to man? At the very most I'd say were pretty even. But their frontcourt blows ours out of the water. Do you really think Sully and KO can bang with Milsao and Horford down low?

[Yogi]

Better than the Hawks man to man? At the very most I'd say were pretty even. But their frontcourt blows ours out of the water. Do you really think Sully and KO can bang with Milsao and Horford down low?

I am a huge Al Horford and Paul Millsap fan.  But neither of those guys "bang down low."  They are both jump shooters.

[Fred Roberts]

I think the Lakers are secretly setting up to tank. Kobe is hurt, Nash is washed up and all that's left is semi-washed up Pau. They could be horrible... . and that worries me!!!

They only have $9M on the cap for next season, so they could potentially land a lottery talent AND have full flexibility for free agency next summer. SCARY.

[gpap]

either contend for the banner or contend for the lotto pics

doing in between is nowhere.

I'm sorry, I hate that mentality.  If every team who doesn't project to be in the hunt for the title should be tanking, then about 28 teams in the NBA should be trying harder to lose than to win next season.

I mean, the Pacers, the Knicks, the Nets, and the Bulls all look to have decent rosters going into next season, but does anyone really like their chance to knock of Miami?

They should all just tank.  Right?

Miami will be playing themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals. My money is on Miami