Wages of Win Projects Celtics at 38.9 Wins

[Boris Badenov]

Something looks odd there.

They have PP and KG adding fewer wins to BKN than Humphries and Wallace will to the C's.

This violates the whole reason for BKN sending us all those picks in the trade, doesn't it?

Consequently they also have BKN at 37 wins and 24th in overall league standings - meaning we get the 7th best lottery slot with that draft pick.

Doesn't smell right to me.

[snively]

I'm guessing WoW hates the rebounding deficiencies of the KG/Lopez squad.  IIRC, WoW has also been very unfavorable to Deron Williams and JJ in the past (not big possession creators, not super efficient).

As for the C's, I think the presence of plus rebounders Kris Humphries and Sully, plus WoW favorite Rondo juices our win total a bit.

I'd expect 35 wins if we don't make any adjustments.

[clover]

Something looks odd there.

They have PP and KG adding fewer wins to BKN than Humphries and Wallace will to the C's.

This violates the whole reason for BKN sending us all those picks in the trade, doesn't it?

Consequently they also have BKN at 37 wins and 24th in overall league standings - meaning we get the 7th best lottery slot with that draft pick.

Doesn't smell right to me.

I'd imagine adding wins and making a difference is easier on a bad team than on a good team.

[Yogi]

RR/AB/Pressey
AB/Lee
Gerald Wallace/Jeff/KO
Jeff/ Sully / Bass or KO
KO/Iverson/Bass

Like...what?
Crazy

I like Pressey but I just wanted to focus on the core.

If we can find spots I would love to add Pressey, Iverson and Faverani

[kgainez]

I really don't think it will be hard for us to get 30-35 wins. I think passed 35 wins is overachieving.

And I didn't even think about Humphries

RR/Pressey
AB/Lee
Jeff/Crash
Sully/Bass
KO/Hump

That's not too bad..how do you feel about Crash and Hump coming off the bench? Kind of a waste of money right?

[LooseCannon]

They think it is a bad trade for both teams.  I'm pretty sure their model dings Pierce and Garnett hard for getting old.  It's definitely optimistic about Gerald Wallace recovering.  They also use a different formula for WS than what you see on basketball-reference.com.  The flaw in WS48 is probably that it overvalues players who rebound and not much else but don't jack up too many horrible shots.

[Yogi]

What a lot of people here forget is that Rondo and Sullinger also add a lot of wins. 

[sofutomygaha]

WoW loves Humphries and doesn't hate Wallace... in the balance it actually thought Humphries was the better player, minute-for-minute, than Garnett.

This will provide interesting data for them.

Overall, I really respect their quant efforts, but I think the 38.9 win projection is GIGO. Humphries and Wallace both seem to be players that don't fit well into their player performance model.

[Prof. Clutch]

Yeah, I have a hard time believing this team will amass 39 wins this year when they only won 41 games last season with a much superior squad.

I mean we have no idea how this team will truly come together in the end, but my guess is they end up winning around 30 games.

[PhoSita]

1.  Rajon Rondo (6'1'')
2.  Avery Bradley (6'2'')
3.  Courtney Lee (6'5'')
4.  Jeff Green (6'9'')
5.  Gerald Wallace (6'7'')
6.  Brandon Bass (6'8'')
7.  Jared Sullinger (6'9'')
8.  Kelly Olynyk (7')

Notice anything?

[Nerf DPOY]

1.  Rajon Rondo (6'1'')
2.  Avery Bradley (6'2'')
3.  Courtney Lee (6'5'')
4.  Jeff Green (6'9'')
5.  Gerald Wallace (6'7'')
6.  Brandon Bass (6'8'')
7.  Jared Sullinger (6'9'')
8.  Kelly Olynyk (7')

Notice anything?

On top of that Ainge said on draft night he considered Olynyk a "stretch 4".

[SHAQATTACK]

oh no....


we can't be dat good .....

all we have to is start fab melon head  and    sit Rondo out as injuries

need around 20 wins max.........or less than the Lakers who are so in the  rebuild mode......hurry back Kobe.....get dem Lakers some wins !!!!!

[EDWARDO]

1.  Rajon Rondo (6'1'')
2.  Avery Bradley (6'2'')
3.  Courtney Lee (6'5'')
4.  Jeff Green (6'9'')
5.  Gerald Wallace (6'7'')
6.  Brandon Bass (6'8'')
7.  Jared Sullinger (6'9'')
8.  Kelly Olynyk (7')

Notice anything?

YES! basketball players sure are tall!!!

[steefp2]

Thinking back to the 2006-2007 season, we know that young teams struggle to win close games. Well maybe inexperienced instead of young fits better. Anyhow i see us being reasonably competitive but still losing a quite a large number of games. I'd say 28-32 wins.

Writing this i realise, that even though i want a really good draft pick, i just want to win as many games as possible. I know it's bad "basketnomics" but still, i want them wins.

Tempered hope would be 35-39 wins which i don't think is impossible provided rondo comes out (fully recovered )proving himself as elite. We'd also need jeff green to step up as a scorer and sully to continue his development. If avery can rediscover his offense aswell then we got a good team.

Anyway in short, i think 39 wins are possible, just depends on too many assumptions to be probable.

[steefp2]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

Not to be a jerk but you'd lose half or more of those games. I like our young players and i'm excited for the future but gotta stay realistic.

39 wins would be losing half or more of those games.

True, i was taking the post a little literal; meaning winning les then 15 out of 29 games (other teams in the league).